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Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

Almost certainly the primary radar coverage was patchy and so positively tying the target through several areas of coverage in order to constrain the route would be difficult without additional data points. The Malaysians simply couldn't be sure. However the Inmarsat data provides some of those points but, given the amount of RF the aircraft would be emitting (UHF sat uplink, VHF, HF, weather radar, even passenger's phones - I wouldn't be surprised if a handful were on and not in flight mode), it may well have been a bit of a beacon in the Indian Ocean for some expensive toys in the possession of a few folks with VA and MD zip codes. After all, they have form for locating the occasional sat/mobile phone user.

I like all your very informative posts 2hats, but I have no idea what they mean most of the time :D

Not very technically minded myself :oops:
 
I've not looked at this properly, but does the time start at 11.00am(ish) rather than Malaysian time?

It was local time as per the device. Flightaware got back to me, data was an error.

and oil rigs, boats, ships, planes, tiny islands, shallow waters, oil slicks, whales...

What would have been better would be for Tomnod to have supplied pictures of oil rigs, ships, trawlers etc. so fewer people would have tagged them as debris

Still fairly easy, faster than people looking at ocean for 99% of the time! But yeah, your suggestion would have helped :)
 
It was local time as per the device. Flightaware got back to me, data was an error.



Still fairly easy, faster than people looking at ocean for 99% of the time! But yeah, your suggestion would have helped :)

but did you see the area the maps supplied covered?!
 
Impressive amount of maps Tomnod provided

Tom Map.PNG

then you see the bigger picture, or rather, you realise that it's just a drop in the ocean, because this is the same area but zoomed out

Tom Map 2.PNG
 
Must be some mistake Minnie_the_Minx surely?

They have mapped other areas, ie. off South Coast of Vietnam, Straits of Malacca, but this is what someone put up a few days ago

http://mh370.exodus.vyinnovation.com/

If you have a look on the Tomnod Facebook page, they also have a map (a pretty crappy one at that) showing where they've mapped, and whilst the site was down last night/early hours of this morning, they were giving you directions where to download their map of things that had been tagged on Google Earth
 
An interactive map of the various areas covered by public/commercial imaging satellites over the last week:
iscover.jpg
 
I was thinking the same myself...

"There appears to be a high probability of a 4+ hours flight in a "9-11" transponders off situation. In the US/Euro they have scrambled the interceptors for far less than this incident. How do we reconcile a hijack style flight with zero response from the military?

1. it was detected, ignored, no action taken and the military kept quiet.
2. it was detected, action was taken and military kept quiet.
3. it was not detected. The military genuinely had no awareness, military telling the truth. Therefore the region has no effective air defense monitoring.

Whichever way this turns out the air defense has got some explaining to do."

Lot of countries involved, most are pretty poor and don't generally have people wanting to blow them up. Sort of air defences we are use to probably doesn't exist at the same level and certainly not at the same level of twitchyness. Get closer to China and things would have been very different.
 
An interactive map of the various areas covered by public/commercial imaging satellites over the last week:
View attachment 50206

Thanks for that 2hats. Of the DigitalGlobe data, only some of that's been put up for the public to view. Actually, why is there no Digital Globe data at the South of Vietnam over the sea, because Tomnod had an area there mapped?
 
WOW. Which is why i thought a computer would be faster and more reliable than the human eye. As great an idea as it is :)

Trying to find the download thingy linked to Google Earth they provided last night showing the Gulf of Thailand maps and Vietnam Maps, but can't find it at moment. They've now added Straits of Malacca and some of it is over land, but I just keep getting sea. Haven't looked at any of the images provided since last night's lot went up (as not been able to link to site properly), but have read a few comments and there's a few about people in boats. I've not looked at any of the coordinates, but if they're near land, then be it in Thai or Malaysian waters, there's lots of tourist islands on that coast so I'd imagine quite a few people are seeing tourist boats island hopping (but like I said, not checked the co-ordinates yet)
 
US Navy is emphasizing the USS Kidd is not going deep into the Indian Ocean, but staying within the Straits of Malacca
 
and from Tomnod facebook page

(where the fuck's quotes icon go?)

"sorry not making it up there but I want to just share my vision with the way my sixth sense , I think there is still MH370 aircraft and all the passengers are still alive but the plane was entered into potral unseen world and could not come out as well as the Bermuda triangle and the plane was lost at world war
MH370 aircraft could return when the magical portal open but it takes 500-800 years so going around the world looking for MH370 aircraft also will not be found
once again I 'm sorry , maybe for you it does not make sense but what I am saying has been proven and is already 7 days MH370 aircraft has not been found despite the sophistication of the technology though , my condolence to all the family plane MH370 aircraft may be returned , and MH370 aircraft for all the family , remember all that was given by God to us that we have or that is in this world and everything will be taken back to god
so make the best family MH370 let everything run like water if the passenger is gone / dead we have to accept because it is God 's decision and plan of God ,
and hopefully this tragedy to make a force for all families MH370 aircraft"
amen
 
WOW. Which is why i thought a computer would be faster and more reliable than the human eye. As great an idea as it is :)

Well it turns out my comment about someone on Tomnod webpage asking if they could see a skull may have been a bit glib. Someone tagged footprints in the snow on a satellite when some guys went missing in the Andes. Must have been much sharper images than the ones we're getting now unless it was a visible long line on fresh virgin snow that was standing out :hmm:
 
81394279396_freesize.jpg
 
12:41 a.m.: Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 takes off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Malaysia heading for Beijing, China. The plane shows up on radar two minutes after taking off.


1:07 a.m.: The last automated data transmission is sent from the plane. U.S officials told ABC News they believe that sometime after this transmission the data reporting system was shut down. Sometime after this transmission Kuala Lumpur's air traffic control tells the plane's pilot they are handing off to air traffic control based in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The pilot responds, "All right. Good night."


1:21 a.m.: The plane's transponder, which transmits location and altitude, shuts down. Sources told ABC News that U.S. officials are “convinced that there was a manual intervention.”


1:22 a.m.: MH370 should have come to the navigational way-point called Igari point. Before it reached this point, Vietnamese air traffic control noticed they had lost contact with MH370, according to the Vietnam’s Civil Aviation Authority.


The military track suggests it then turned sharply westwards, heading towards a waypoint called "Vampi", northeast of Indonesia's Aceh province and a navigational point used for planes following route N571 to the Middle East.


1:30 a.m.: The last moment that the plane was seen by Malaysian radar.


1:38 a.m.: Air traffic control in Ho Chi Minh City informs Kuala Lumpur air traffic control about the signal loss. Ho Chi Minh City asks two other planes to contact MH370. Neither plane is able to raise the pilot of MH370. At least of the planes report getting a “buzz signal” and no voices, then losing the signal.


2:15 a.m.: A Malaysian military defence radar possibly picks up a plane that is hundreds of miles west of MH370’s last contact point. There are indications that the plane flew towards a waypoint called "Gival", south of the Thai island of Phuket, and was last plotted heading northwest towards another waypoint called "Igrex", on route P628 that would take it over the Andaman Islands and which carriers use to fly towards Europe.


Following hours: In the hours after contact was lost MH370 "pings" a satellite several times. It's not clear if those pings include data that could reveal the plane's location.


6:32 a.m.: A broadcast call was made from Kuala Lumpur's air traffic control on emergency frequencies asking MH370 to call them.


6:51 a.m.: A broadcast call was made from Ho Chi Minh City's air traffic control on emergency frequencies asking MH370 to call them.
 
WOW. Which is why i thought a computer would be faster and more reliable than the human eye. As great an idea as it is :)

Computer recognition of stuff has evolved plenty in recent decades, but there are still all sorts of pattern recognition tasks that a human brain does better.

Probably the ideal is a combination. eg a computer to rule out sectors where no potentially interesting objects exist, and then humans to study the rest.
 
From the NYT

SEPANG, Malaysia — Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 experienced significant changes in altitude after it lost contact with ground control, and altered its course more than once as if still under the command of a pilot, American officials and others familiar with the investigation said Friday.

Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appear to show the missing airliner climbing to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200, soon after it disappeared from civilian radar and made a sharp turn to the west, according to a preliminary assessment by a person familiar with the data.

The radar track, which the Malaysian government has not released but says it has provided to the United States and China, then shows the plane descending unevenly to an altitude of 23,000 feet, below normal cruising levels, as it approached the densely populated island of Penang, one of the country’s largest. There, the plane turned from a southwest-bound course, climbed to a higher altitude and flew northwest over the Strait of Malacca toward the Indian Ocean.

Investigators have also examined data transmitted from the plane’s Rolls-Royce engines that shows it descending 40,000 feet in the space of a minute, according to a senior American official briefed on the investigation. But investigators do not believe the readings are accurate because the aircraft would likely haven taken longer to fall such a distance.

“A lot of stock cannot be put in the altitude data” sent from the engines, one official said. “A lot of this doesn’t make sense.”

The data, while incomplete and difficult to interpret, could still provide critical new clues as investigators try to determine what transpired on Flight 370, which disappeared early last Saturday carrying 239 people from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Malaysian and international investigators have said in recent days that the plane may have departed from its northerly flight route toward Beijing and headed west across the Malaysian peninsula just after it disappeared from civilian radar, its pilots stopped communicating with ground controllers and its transponders stopped transmitting data about its speed and location. The plane is also now thought to have continued flying for more than four hours after diverting its course, based on automated “pings” sent by onboard systems seeking to connect with satellites.

But the Malaysian military radar data, which local authorities have declined to provide to the public, add significant new information about the flight immediately after ground controllers lost contact. The combination of altitude changes and at least two significant course corrections could have a variety of explanations, including an intentional diversion by a pilot or a hijacker, or uneven flying because a disabled crew.

The erratic movements of the aircraft after it diverted course and flew over the country also raise questions about why the military did not respond in real time to the flight emergency. Malaysian officials have acknowledged that military radar may have picked up the plane, but have said they took no action because it did not appear hostile.

Seven days after the jet’s disappearance, Malaysian authorities have shared few details with American investigators, frustrating senior officials in Washington. “They’re keeping us at a distance,” said one of the officials.

But investigators in Malaysia and the United States recently began receiving additional data about the plane and anticipate receiving more over the weekend, according to a senior American official. “It’s gotten better and better every day,” the official said, referring to information from the plane’s manufacturer, satellites and military radar. “It should provide more clarity to the flight path. It’s not a given but it’s a hope.”

Because the plane stopped transmitting its position about 40 minutes after takeoff, military radar recorded only an unidentified blip moving through Malaysian airspace. Certain weather conditions, and even flocks of birds, can occasionally cause radar blips that may be mistaken for aircraft, and the Malaysian authorities say they are still studying the signals to determine if they came from Flight 370.

But the person who examined the data said it leaves little doubt that the airliner flew near or through the southern tip of Thailand, then back across Peninsular Malaysia, near the city of Penang, and out over the sea again. That’s in part because the data is based on signals recorded by two radar stations, one at Butterworth air force base on the peninsula’s west coast, near Penang, and the other at Kota Bharu, on the northeast coast. Two radars tracking a contact can significantly increase the reliability of the readings.

Still, Ravi Madavaram, an aerospace engineer at the consulting firm Frost & Sullivan based in Kuala Lumpur, said the accuracy of ground-based radars determining a plane’s altitude falls the farther away the plane is. When Flight 370 lost contact with ground control, it was more than 100 miles from Kota Bharu and 200 miles from Butterworth, distances that he said could degrade accuracy. But the altitudes measured as the plane crossed the peninsula would be more reliable, he said.

Military radar last recorded the aircraft flying at an altitude of 29,500 feet about 200 miles northwest of Penang and headed toward India’s Andaman Islands.

Cengiz Turkoglu, a senior lecturer in aeronautical engineering at City University London who specializes in aviation safety, said dramatic changes in altitude can be the result of a deliberate act in the cockpit. “It is extremely difficult for an aircraft to physically, however heavy it might be, to free fall.”

An Asia-based pilot of a Boeing 777-200, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, said an ascent above the plane’s service limit of 43,100 feet, along with a depressurized cabin, could have rendered the passengers and crew unconscious, and could be a deliberate maneuver by a pilot or hijacker.
 
You can listen to this here. Worth a listen as it's a more nuanced than the article below suggests, but still...they think it COULD have landed?

Could Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 have landed on a runway in a remote area somewhere?

Wall Street Journal airline industry reporter Andy Pasztor said in an interview with Here & Now’s Jeremy Hobson that while it is not clear where the plane is, the consensus among US investigators is that the plane did not crash but had landed on a runway.

He said that data had indicated that the plane remained intact and flew for up to four hours and during that time it could have landed.

"Satellite transmissions indicated that it could have landed for some period, perhaps a short period," he told Hobson.

Pasztor had created a stir worldwide with his story that missing Malaysian Airlines flight 370 could have flown for four more hours after its last confirmed contact, based on information routinely relayed from its Rolls Royce engines.

Pasztor said that while it was not clear what had happened on the plane, something weird and bizarre had happened in the cockpit and the plane did not drop out of the sky.

"What the pilot or someone else was doing is unclear but data indicated that the plane was intact and that it could have landed," he said in the radio interview which is available on Here & Now’s website
http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/03/13/malaysia-plane-pasztor
 
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From the NYT

Radar signals recorded by the Malaysian military appear to show the missing airliner climbing to 45,000 feet, above the approved altitude limit for a Boeing 777-200 ...Investigators have also examined data transmitted from the plane’s Rolls-Royce engines that shows it descending 40,000 feet in the space of a minute

You wouldn't elect to overstress the airframe prior to having to contemplate a ditching... Again, it is possible that, depending on the range at which the radar data were recorded, the error in altitude accounts for the apparent exceeding of maximum safe altitude.

40kft per minute is effectively diving the plane down vertically at close to full power and (a) actually couldn't be achieved as it encounters the lower, denser layers of the atmosphere and (b) would likely result in structural failure. If there is data consistent with powered flight after that event then most likely the rate of descent is indeed wrong. Possibly the same engine data clearly indicates that the engines weren't experiencing extremes/failure at the time ie the same data set is not consistent with what it is claiming is physically happening at that moment.

All very erratic.
 
I've been looking at that Tomnod site. I've looked though about 2000 squares. this is the strangest thing I've found so far. What do you think it is? Its a bit small for an ocean going ship but to big for a life raft.
upload_2014-3-14_22-11-32.png
 
You wouldn't elect to overstress the airframe prior to having to contemplate a ditching... Again, it is possible that, depending on the range at which the radar data were recorded, the error in altitude accounts for the apparent exceeding of maximum safe altitude.

40kft per minute is effectively diving the plane down vertically at close to full power and (a) actually couldn't be achieved as it encounters the lower, denser layers of the atmosphere and (b) would likely result in structural failure. If there is data consistent with powered flight after that event then most likely the rate of descent is indeed wrong. Possibly the same engine data clearly indicates that the engines weren't experiencing extremes/failure at the time ie the same data set is not consistent with what it is claiming is physically happening at that moment.

All very erratic.

Agreed. Article suggests something is amiss with these numbers.

Can we rule out pilot suicide at this point? If the data is correct and the plane flew for 4 more hours then unless the pilot was very keen on avoiding the wreckage ever being found then why go to so much trouble and fly so far?

Is hijacking looking more likely?
 
CNN.

A classified intelligence analysis of electronic and satellite data suggests Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 likely crashed either in the Bay of Bengal or elsewhere in the Indian Ocean, CNN learned Friday.
 
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