Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanishes without trace

[Barking_Mad]

Ah, this wonderful piece of internet shows the prevailing currents in the area. IF the plane went down where the oil rig worker saw it, the currents would carry any debris back towards where the Chinese satellite says it has spotted what COULD be debris.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=104.11,7.61,1952

I guess we will know if they find something there.

 

[2hats]

I also tried to find out the wind direction on the date of the crash but couldnt find any info - but currently the wind is from the ENE, which if hadn't moved round much would perhaps be consistent with the wreckage drifting to the where the Chinese satellite claims it could be.

*If* the NZ rig report has any validity (and who knows in all this confusion) it would not be entirely inconsistent with the published Chinese satellite imagery location once one factors in the last known position of the aircraft and heading (ADS-B data) *and if* one supposes the vehicle maintained that track for a short time during which some event (eg cockpit fire and depressurisation) unfolded, allowing for GFS modelled wind profiles and ocean currents prevalent at the time. However the suspected event (observation from the rig) probably happened further west than indicated, perhaps south of the vicinity of the Con Dao islands. The range given would be a pure guess, perhaps influenced by the observer's expectation of where transiting air traffic is normally seen (MH370 was using an air corridor much further west and on a different bearing to that that would transit in the vicinity of the rig - the "normal flight paths" he refers to, I would guess). An elevation would have been more useful. The lack of apparent angular velocity could also be an indication that the object was a significant distance away.

So, just a few ifs there...

Oh, and if it was burning brightly SBIRS would quite likely have seen it.

 

[2hats]

Even more interesting - just playing with these ideas and some numbers they all seem to fall together, perhaps too conveniently.

The last reported position was waypoint IGARI (orange ellipse, lower left, approached along R208, green solid arrow from bottom left corner). The flightplan then (if I have it correct) called for a heading adjustment to fly air route M765 to BITOD (second solid green arrow) followed by a turn to the north to follow airway L637 to cross the Vietnamese coast (dashed green arrow). If there had been some sort of event between IGARI and BITOD the autopilot may well have maintained the heading along M765 (dashed purple line) towards the Con Dao islands (CONSON) and then if the plane came down along/near M765, prevailing winds then ocean currents (GFS) would draw debris towards the location given by the Chinese (orange circle, lower centre). Additionally, if in the later stages the aircraft were burning at or close to cruising altitude further down that track (vicinity of the grey ellipse) it is just possible that it could be seen from the rig location (blue circle to the right) on the given bearing but it would be low to the horizon from that location (not much higher than the width of your hand when you stretch out your arm).



Of course, this assumes the satellite imagery isn't a wild goose chase, but then these are essentially quick looks, lower resolution, and the Chinese, one might imagine, almost certainly have much higher resolution shots they checked first.

 

[Dr Jon]

Some speculation about a cyber attack

 

[editor]

Some speculation about a cyber attack

This might seem far-fetched. In fact, it is far-fetched.

Oh, OK.

 

[weltweit]

Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Plane 'may have flown for four hours after last-known contact'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ur-hours-after-lastknown-contact-9188719.html

US investigators claim stricken jet could have flown for hundreds of miles after it lost contact with air traffic control

US investigators are examining whether missing Flight MH370 was “intentionally diverted” from its planned route after new data revealed the plane may have flown for a further four hours from the point of its last confirmed location.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Hmm. From the Guardian

Lots of great detail in the WSJ report that missing flight MH370 could have remained in the air for some four hours after it disappeared from civilian radar screens, including this, from an unnamed source:

...officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted “with the intention of using it later for another purpose.”[\quote]

 

[Barking_Mad]

How hard can it be to find?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/malaysian-air-scale/m/

 

[ChrisD]

Speculation in the press that the radar transponders may have been turned off .... I can't see why would there be an "off" switch for civilian aircraft?

 

[Barking_Mad]

Edit: This could be a conservative distance as it may have had enough fuel for another 2 hours of flight.

 

[Barking_Mad]

BBC Radio 5 spoke to an American on one the boats looking for the aircraft and he was pretty confident that if there was some wreckage to be found they'd have done so by now.

 

[brogdale]

Edit: This could be a conservative distance as it may have had enough fuel for another 2 hours of flight.

Interesting, but I wonder what evidence the yanks are looking at. IIRC Rolls Royce have said that their engine data bursts don't extend beyond the point at which contact was lost?

 

[2hats]

Speculation in the press that the radar transponders may have been turned off .... I can't see why would there be an "off" switch for civilian aircraft?

Just pull the appropriate circuit breakers.

Bild are reporting that the Chinese themselves are casting doubt on their own satellite imagery now.

So if, as the WSJ report, RR have another 4 hours of engine management data then ACARS must have still been functioning (as it piggy backs on that). It might be possible to reconstruct some of the subsequent route from the engine data and knowing which VHF ground stations were involved. If there was no VHF then identifying the corridors of zero coverage by combining the VHF and radar coverage footprints might narrow possibilities.

The range in the above simplified graphic will be distorted by head and tail winds. Also greatly reduced if the plane were flown at lower altitude and/or routed to avoid attracting attention. The Australians would likely have seen it coming if it reached the SE area since they watch the Timor Sea with a mania.

e2a: Malaysian Airlines deny there is additional engine data (another 4 hours) beyond the original time of last reported position.

 

[brogdale]

6m ago

The press conference is under way.

Malaysia’s defence and acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein said reports that the plane stayed in the air for several hours after losing contact were “inaccurate”.

 

[Barking_Mad]

From The Guardian

Malaysia’s defence and acting transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein said reports that the plane stayed in the air for several hours after losing contact were “inaccurate”.

He also confirmed that no debris had been found where Chinese satellite’s detected large objects on Sunday in the South China Sea.

 

[mack]

This is a total fucking mess. Somebody somewhere knows what the fuck went on..but for "security" reasons no doubt they aint sayin anything.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Malaysia Airlines chief executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahyain insisted that Rolls Royce and Boeing received no more contact with the plane after 1.07am on Saturday morning.

 

[Barking_Mad]

This is a total fucking mess. Somebody somewhere knows what the fuck went on..but for "security" reasons no doubt they aint sayin anything.

Either that or they really don't have a fucking clue. Which is both disturbing and astonishing.

 

[T & P]

How the fuck could the Chinese have released those images of debris 'in error'?

Agree with what a few are saying here. There's something very fishy here and we're not being told everything that is known.

 

[T & P]

Either that or they really don't have a fucking clue. Which is both disturbing and astonishing.

Spending billions of Pounds on stealth fighters certainly seems a waste of money if a large commercial aircraft can fly undetected. All one needs is to turn the transponders off and presto!- as good as a cloaked Klingon bird of prey.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Malaysia’s transport minister Hishammuddin Hussein

I would like to refer to news reports suggesting that the aircraft may have been flying for some time after the last contact. Those reports are inaccurate. The last transmission from the aircraft was at 01:07, which indicated everything was normal. Rolls Royce and Boeing teams are here in Kuala Lumpur and have worked with MAS and the investigation teams since Sunday. This issue has never been raised ... Since today’s media reports MAS has asked Rolls Royce and Boeing specifically about the data. As far as Rolls Royce and Boeing are concerned those reports are inaccurate.

 

[frogwoman]

Either that or they really don't have a fucking clue. Which is both disturbing and astonishing.

To be honest, I think that's more likely.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Just to re-post part of the the WSJ article the Malaysian's are now saying is not true:

U.S. investigators suspect that Malaysia Airlines 3786.KU -2.04% Flight 370 stayed in the air for about four hours past the time it reached its last confirmed location, according to two people familiar with the details, raising the possibility that the plane could have flown on for hundreds of additional miles under conditions that remain murky.

Aviation investigators and national security officials believe the plane flew for a total of five hours, based on data automatically downloaded and sent to the ground from the Boeing Co. BA -0.99% 777's engines as part of a routine maintenance and monitoring program.

At one briefing, according to this person, officials were told investigators are actively pursuing the notion that the plane was diverted "with the intention of using it later for another purpose."

 

[2hats]

Since today’s media reports MAS has asked Rolls Royce and Boeing specifically about the data. As far as Rolls Royce and Boeing are concerned those reports are inaccurate.

So not explicitly denying that there is additional data? Just stating that the media reports are 'inaccurate'...

 

[Minnie_the_Minx]

How hard can it be to find?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/malaysian-air-scale/m/

Someone put up where exactly Tomnod users were searching last night. I was a bit WTF, is that it?! Thought it'd be a much wider area

 

[TomUS]

It crashed on land or in the sea. Ooooooh....what a mystery. Just can't fucking wait to find out what happened. Clown journalism.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Boeing has confirmed that a safety warning about a potential problem on some Boeing aircraft did not apply to the missing plane, because it was not fitted with a communication antenna associated with the problem.

In a brief statement sent to the Guardian, it said:

The antenna covered by the pending AD was not installed on MH370, so that airplane is not subject to the AD or the related Service Bulletin.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Rolls Royce is refusing to comment on claims made by the Malaysian authorities on the last signal sent by the missing plane.

During today’s press conference Malaysia’s acting transport minister

Hishammuddin Hussein dismissed a report in the Wall Street Journal claiming that the signals could have sent out by the plane hours after it lost contact with air traffic control. He also claimed both the makers of the missing plane, Boeing, and the makers of its engines, Rolls Royce, backed this view.

He said: “Since today’s media reports MAS [Malaysia Airlines] has asked Rolls-Royce and Boeing specifically about the data. As far as Rolls-Royce and Boeing are concerned those reports are inaccurate.”

But when our transport correspondent Gwyn Topham asked Rolls Royce to confirm this, it declined.

Earlier, the company said little more to the Wall Street Journal. It quotes and an unnamed executive as saying: “The disappearance is officially now an accident and all information about this is strictly handled by investigators.”

Boeing has also issued no comment on the claim.

 

[Barking_Mad]

If confusion is what they wanted to sow, they've done an excellent job.

 

[2hats]

It's quite possible that Boeing/RR don't have the engine management data messages. Or that they never received them. Another body (from who, via some indirect route, the WSJ have been briefed) quite possibly did receive them (or has fragments of them). Whether they have already or are able or are willing to share these with Boeing/RR at some level is another question entirely.