Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[Divisive Cotton]

What happened to that Libyan Navy boat that was near Malta yesterday?

 

[quimcunx]

I don't know what 'the west' is saying that you refer to, but not necessarily. Tribal structures were alive and well in a form they had been for centuries in many of these countries. Then with the advent of capitalism/oil revenues they have been transformed and solidified as conduits for channeling wealth/influence/ensuring loyalty.

That's not to say they're the be all and end all and that there won't be tension with people acting as individuals and in parties, but they're a powerful social background across the ME

I meant that the tribes can quite easily act together. I was getting the impression that 'the west' thinks tribalism will equal 'post gadafi chaos' or that splitting them will help gadafi. Or at least that they are worrying about it a bit too much. Libyans identify first as their tribe then as Libyan. Well I might identify as Scottish first then British but doesn't mean I can't act together against Geordies against Cameron.


@Divisive. Still hanging about as far as I know.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

There's live shots on Al-Jazeera of a demonstration in Toburk with one of the protesters carrying a banner that reads "Oil for the West"... I'm not sure if he is being ironic or that is two fingers

Here's that photo. It's a slogan whose meaning is open to interpretation

 

[teqniq]

Very depressed man.

http://yfrog.com/h2t3zasj

 

[quimcunx]

libyan airline circling Malta been told to turn back. It may be running short of fuel.

Malta authorities were concerned that it might not contain ordinary Libyan or other citizens but Gadafi supporters wanting to cause harm.

E2A:


It is reported to be daughter of Gadafi, Aisha and 13 other passengers.

 

[Gingerman]

david owen "gaddafi has chemical weapons and is "possibly" capable of using them on protesters "..BBC now

I've heard Gaddafi suffers from flatulence,maybe he'll fart the protesters to death

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Tweet:

ShababLibya LibyanYouthMovement
BREAKING: under ground prisons being discovered in Benghazi, political prisoners being found alive, not seen light of day for years

 

[quimcunx]

That appeared as breaking first thing this morning too. I haven't seen confirmation.

 

[Streathamite]

I meant that the tribes can quite easily act together. I was getting the impression that 'the west' thinks tribalism will equal 'post gadafi chaos' or that splitting them will help gadafi. Or at least that they are worrying about it a bit too much. Libyans identify first as their tribe then as Libyan. Well I might identify as Scottish first then British but doesn't mean I can't act together against Geordies against Cameron.

actually,tribalism has been on the wane in the urban parts of the arab world for some time now

 

[weltweit]

I might be out of place saying this, or wrong, but unlike Egypt it does appear Libya may develop into something like an east west civil war. It seems army units in the east around Banghazi Tobruk have sided with the demonstrators while from the little I can gather army units in Tripoli remain loyal to Gaddafi. It must be significant that the interior minister has defected but it seems from his speech that Gaddafi is not going anywhere, preferring to fight.

There would be no danger of civil war if the opposition was just the protesters because they are unarmed, but now there are army units which have defected the rebels have arms.

 

[dylans]

I might be out of place saying this, or wrong, but unlike Egypt it does appear Libya may develop into something like an east west civil war. It seems army units in the east around Banghazi Tobruk have sided with the demonstrators while from the little I can gather army units in Tripoli remain loyal to Gaddafi. It must be significant that the interior minister has defected but it seems from his speech that Gaddafi is not going anywhere, preferring to fight.

There would be no danger of civil war if the opposition was just the protesters because they are unarmed, but now there are army units which have defected the rebels have arms.

I think this is a possibility and have posted about this earlier in the thread. Not only civil war but also an actual breakup of the country into two along the East/West divide (which corresponds to the country's two oil basins.) However, the news recently reported that Gaddafi has lost control of the Western oil hub and if so, this pretty much seals his fate and lessons the prospects for his survival. No oil, no money to sustain a prolonged fight.

 

[Lock&Light]

However, the news recently reported that Gaddafi has lost control of the Western oil hub and if so, this pretty much seals his fate and lessons the prospects for his survival. No oil, no money to sustain a prolonged fight.

As this would be a crucial change in the strategic situation, it would be reassuring to see any kind of confirmation.

 

[quimcunx]

actually,tribalism has been on the wane in the urban parts of the arab world for some time now

Well this is what I'm saying media have talked about it and Gadafi has used tribal loyalties as a scare tactic but I'm not so sure.

 

[teqniq]

Guardian's Martin Chulov in Benghazi

sorry should have said it's audio

 

[quimcunx]

Guardian's Martin Chulov in Benghazi

Maybe he can enlighten us on the underground prison.

 

[elbows]

I've heard Gaddafi suffers from flatulence,maybe he'll fart the protesters to death

Blimey thats a blast from the past, seem to remember it was John Simpson who mentioned this when he got a rare meeting with Gadaffi, over a decade ago.

Meanwhile Al Jazeera are running a program that features an interview in English with former Gaddafi head of protocol who resigned some days ago. As part of the intro piece giving an overview of Gadaffi, they mention Gadaffis green book as being essential reading for Libyans while video shows Libyans ripping up the green book

 

[Streathamite]

Gaddafi's now lost Misurata,in the west.
Interior minister,justice minister, head of protocol have all quit

 

[elbows]

The former head of protocol, who was a close associate of Gadaffi for 40 years, has a rather scary screen presence, he does the ranting, finger wagging and raising voice thing almost as much as Gadaffi. Only having one eye that blinks, and signs of botox treatment doesnt help. Everything he is saying is good but it seems rather clear that this is at least in part because of his desire to distance himself massively from Gadaffis recent horrors.

 

[Tankus]

keep hearing that hes lost this city and that ...but there doesn't seem to be major military manoeuvres involved (tanks, air support, mortars and stuff) 600 dead estimate seems fairly low for various citywide insurgencies ? total capitulation with very little defence ...? dunno

 

[elbows]

The former head of protocol:

He looks a little different today, has dyed his hair. The program is over now but I think it will be available ontheir website around lunchtime tomorrow, will post link when available.

 

[elbows]

keep hearing that hes lost this city and that ...but there doesn't seem to be major military manoeuvres involved (tanks, air support, mortars and stuff) 600 dead estimate seems fairly low for various citywide insurgencies ? total capitulation with very little defence ...? dunno

Plenty of capitulation, plenty of forces switching sides, but also a lack of detail at this point as to exactly what has happened in quite a few locations.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

surely there has to be a point soon when the whole thing just collapses... I can't wait to see thousands of mercenaries at Tripoli airport begging to be flown out the country...

 

[elbows]

The latest 'plane trying to land in another country but being turned away' story is that a plane with Gadaffis daughter onboard was refused permission to land in Malta. AL Jazeera are going on about this a fair bit tonight.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

1756: New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof tweets: Amazing: I hear by phone that Tajura, #Libya , less than 10 miles from Tripoli, has fallen. Rebel flag flying over it.

.

 

[elbows]

He looks a little different today, has dyed his hair. The program is over now but I think it will be available ontheir website around lunchtime tomorrow, will post link when available.

Actually although the program is over Al Jazeera keep featuring bits of the interview with him on the rolling news tonight.

 

[likesfish]

gadaffi did have an underground chemical warfare plant think it was shut down after Saddam got his.
part of the deal of gaddafi not getting his.
can't imagine the US would have let him keep any dangerous toys.
the chimp had him over a barrel then

 

[ohmyliver]

The former head of protocol:

images snipped

He looks a little different today, has dyed his hair. The program is over now but I think it will be available ontheir website around lunchtime tomorrow, will post link when available.

Did Gaddafi style himself on a Bond villain? First the all woman praetorian guard, then him who looks like a Bond villain's number one henchman

 

[elbows]

Did Gaddafi style himself on a Bond villain? First the all woman praetorian guard, then him who looks like a Bond villain's number one henchman

Whatever gave you that idea?

 

[elbows]

One more before I return to seriousness.

 

[Streathamite]

Deputy Foreign Minister is playing the Al-qaeda card now