Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[elbows]

OK so according to the headline news regarding the documents that show MI6 & CIA co-operation with Libya and rendition stuff, AbdelHakim Belhaj was also known as Abdullah al-Sadiq.

And just in case I've thoroughly confused anyone with prior posts about which guy this is, its the one who is 'Tripoli Military Council' commander and looks like this.

 

[not-bono-ever]

They've got to catch him first.

About that bluster he came out with today, broadcast on Syrian TV. Do you think he's hiding in Syria? Is it in their interest to shelter him?

not sure where he is, but sources have told me that there has been ALOT of activity at the mansion/ estate owned by Gadaffi in Zimbabwe- backed up by reports of an uncharacteristic flurry of Zim-Libya air traffic over the past few weeks ( now finished obv.)

 

[not-bono-ever]

.

 

[Idris2002]

This seems to shoot holes in the 'NATO intervened to impose capitalist/neoliberalism' idea.

No it doesn't. The intervention came at a time when a) you had popular revolts all over the Arab world, including Libya, which could have led to the establishment regimes which would reject western neoliberal tutelage and b) Gadaffi's initial suppression of the popular revolt had occurred in full view of world opinion, meaning that there could be no return to business as usual for the western powers which only weeks previously had been happy to tolerate Gadaffi's regime in its western-friendly form.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Israel & G were supposedly blood enemies.

Not really. He was never much of an enemy, although he supported Hamas.

He kept it secret but of both of his parents were Jewish.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Gadaffi was Jewish?

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

No it doesn't. The intervention came at a time when a) you had popular revolts all over the Arab world, including Libya, which could have led to the establishment regimes which would reject western neoliberal tutelage and b) Gadaffi's initial suppression of the popular revolt had occurred in full view of world opinion, meaning that there could be no return to business as usual for the western powers which only weeks previously had been happy to tolerate Gadaffi's regime in its western-friendly form.

To consolidate neo-liberalism is, in my opinion, a very secondary reason for the intervention on the part of the countries leading it, which is, stabilising the field (as they see it) in the other Arab states, and Africom.

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

Gadaffi was Jewish?

That rumour has been around for a very long time. An old woman woman in Benghazi always called him Ish Kalom - so they say. But you heard a lot more about it in recent times, especially the NTC said they found his documentation in Benghazi. The French knew about Albert Preziosi (as did the Vatican, we now learn). That's old hat. But his mother is the new story.

(In my opinion, it is incidental to his political, but obviously not to his personal life.)

 

[Lock&Light]

He kept it secret but of both of his parents were Jewish.

From Wiki: "According to many biographies, his family belongs to a small tribe of Arabs, the Qadhadhfa. They are mostly herders that live in the Hun Oasis. His grandmother was Jewish, but converted to Islam and married the town sheikh."

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

From Wiki: "According to many biographies, his family belongs to a small tribe of Arabs, the Qadhadhfa. They are mostly herders that live in the Hun Oasis. His grandmother was Jewish, but converted to Islam and married the town sheikh."

[But:] There is loads about his family background that we haven't been able to, or has only vaguely been so known until now.

 

[Lock&Light]

[But:] There is loads about his family background that we haven't been able to, or has only vaguely been so known until now.

However you stated catagorically that "He kept it secret but of both of his parents were Jewish."

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

The truth is in the documents and the NTC have them.

 

[Pickman's model]

The truth is in the documents and the NTC have them.

link or stfu

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

_libya.tv is down

 

[Pickman's model]

_libya.tv is down

that's no excuse

 

[Pickman's model]

there's this interesting little gem from the guardian:

One of Libya's senior rebel commanders has demanded an apology from the British and American governments following the discovery of secret documents which show that MI6 and the CIA were involved in a plot that led to his capture and torture.
Abdul Hakim Belhaj, the security commander in Tripoli, told the Guardian he is considering suing over the episode, which raises further damaging questions over Britain's knowledge of the rendition and ill-treatment of prisoners.
One document found in a treasure trove of abandoned papers shows a senior MI6 officer boasting to the Libyans about how British intelligence led to Belhaj being captured on 6 March 2004.
Then a leading dissident member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, Belhaj was seized in Bangkok and handed over to the CIA, who he alleges tortured him and injected him with truth serum before flying him back to Tripoli for interrogation.
Documents show that five days before he was taken back to Tripoli, MI6 gave Libya Belhaj's French and Moroccan aliases, and told them he was in detention in Sepang, Malaysia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/04/libyan-commander-demands-apology

i wouldn't be surprised if british relations with the new libyan regime go tits up

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

that's no excuse

Well I was watching a general on late hours Libya Free TV. He was saying all that stuff. We'll have to wait till this stuff is released. . . really interested in the Vatican part.

 

[dylans]

Abdul Hakim Belhaj, the security commander in Tripoli, told the Guardian he is considering suing over the episode[/QUOTE

Oh the irony. An ex Mujahideen fighter and ally of Ayman Al Zawahiri who fought against the US in Afghanistan is propelled to power by NATO and now threatens to sue them for torturing him. You couldn't make it up.

 

[goldenecitrone]

Oh the irony. An ex Mujahideen fighter and ally of Ayman Al Zawahiri who fought against the US in Afghanistan is propelled to power by NATO and now threatens to sue them for torturing him. You couldn't make it up.

It just highlights how morally bankrupt the CIA and MI5 became after 9/11. I guess bin Laden got what he wanted with that.

 

[dylanredefined]

It just highlights how morally bankrupt the CIA and MI5 became after 9/11. I guess bin Laden got what he wanted with that.

What was that? "The most complicated death by cop scenario ever"
CIA and MI5/6 have always used 'the ends justify the means' and always will be.
9/11 just gave them a new enemy and the politicians let them off the leash.

 

[Deareg]

It just highlights how morally bankrupt the CIA and MI5 became after 9/11. I guess bin Laden got what he wanted with that.

Morally bankrupt after 9/11? Are you serious?

 

[London_Calling]

So Moussa Koussa worked for cooperated with MI6 all along, his very senior contact at MI6 worked for BP - and now actually does, and BP is effectively a Department of State.

Meanwhile NATO, having demonstrated the ability to target specific rooms in specific buildings, was unable to spot a 250 vehicle convoy on a 1,000 mile journey disappearing across the Niger border with truckloads of gold, currency and .... 'persons unknown'.

Business as usual then.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Meanwhile NATO, having demonstrated the ability to target specific rooms in specific buildings, was unable to spot a 250 vehicle convoy on a 1,000 mile journey disappearing across the Niger border with truckloads of gold, currency and .... 'persons unknown'.

Is it really in their interests to stop them leaving the country? I would have thought they'd be happy for to go far far away for now so that they can deal with them later (like Charles Taylor)

 

[London_Calling]

Charles Taylor wasn't one of the gang in The War On Terrah! The Gadaffi clan turned out to be very helpful in that regard and presumably know where the bodies are buried, metaphorically and literally.

Again, presumably, this now means they don't get killed and they don't end up at The Hague - effective immunity.

Not a bad idea to leave at least papers unburned and available to be discovered.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

naw, all the bodies are in tripoli not in niger or nigeria or wherever he'll end up. I would imagine that the US and UK are now exerting influence on the TNC or keep things covered up although their authority is very limited at the moment

 

[London_Calling]

Of course they are.

I didn't mean bodies can be exhumed It's a ref to the knowledge the Gadaffi's hold.

 

[dylans]

When Tripoli fell I predicted that the fall of Gaddafi would see the emergence of political divisi ons within the opposition and give way to factionalism and possibly a renewed civil war. What is the situation now? Have events on the ground proved me right or wrong. I would like to say it is too early to tell, however, all indications are that I was and am right in my pessimistic prediction and that the divisions and factionalism I predicted are indeed beginning to emerge.

There are now two main factions that can be discerned amidst the chaos (many more I am sure, but two that really matter) On the one hand we have the TNC, an unelected, untested and unrepresentative organisation that takes it's legitimacy from the support it recieves from NATO and increasingly the "international community". It is made up of former regime members and ex Gaddafi ministers and speaks the language of liberal democracy.

On the other hand we have the military and political leaders who have fought and bled and played a role in the military victory. These military forces have the backing of thousands of armed militia's and fighters across the country and they are by no means unified in any sense except the desire to see an end to Gaddafi. These thousands of fighters are now organised in military councils such as the Tripoli council led by Abdul Hakim Belhaj, an Islamist who was not long ago considered an enemy by NATO members including the UK.

There is thus a fundamental and growing rift between the TNC and many of the armed forces on the ground and not only in Tripoli.Ismail Sallabi head of the Benghazi military council has called the TNC "remnants of Gaddafi" and as "a bunch of liberals who should resign" and In Misrata there have been demonstrations against the TNC. The TNC for its part has dismissed Belhaj as an "unrepentant Islamist" who represents "nothing" and Jalil has threatened to resign if Islamist militias do not hand in their arms.

The ground is thus being laid for conflict between two conflicting claims of legitimacy. One that claims legitimacy from military struggle and victory and one that is self appointed and enjoying the support of the West. We can expect that conflict to increase on a number of levels. As I predicted Libya is headed towards civil war. When it does we can expect an Afghani situation (in fact the analogy is increasingly accurate) with an unrepresentative pro Western regime clinging to power with Western support and surrounded by an armed insurgency.

 

[Random]

Or a slightly milder Afghanistan situation, with a western-backed liberal leadership dependent for their existence on local warlords.

 

[xes]

Apparently Gaddafi has been surrounded, and is only a matter of time until he is captured or killed
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/07/gaddafi-capture-libya-rebels_n_951722.html

TRIPOLI, Libya -- Libyan fighters have surrounded ousted dictator Moammar Gadhafi, and it is only a matter of time until he is captured or killed, a spokesman for Tripoli's new military council said Wednesday.
The council's deputy defense minister said, however, that Libya's former rebels had no idea where Gadhafi was, and they were focusing on taking control of territory instead of tracking down the former leader.
Figures in Libya's new government have given a series of conflicting statements about Gadhafi's presumed whereabouts since the fall of the capital last month and many reports about his location have proven untrue.
Anis Sharif told The Associated Press that Gadhafi was still in Libya and had been tracked using advanced technology and human intelligence. Rebel forces have taken up positions on all sides of Gadhafi's presumed location, with none more than 40 miles (60 kilometers) away, he said, without providing details.
"He can't get out," said Sharif, who added the former rebels are preparing to either detain him or kill him. "We are just playing games with him," Sharif said.

 

[elbows]

When Tripoli fell I predicted that the fall of Gaddafi would see the emergence of political divisi ons within the opposition and give way to factionalism and possibly a renewed civil war. What is the situation now? Have events on the ground proved me right or wrong. I would like to say it is too early to tell, however, all indications are that I was and am right in my pessimistic prediction and that the divisions and factionalism I predicted are indeed beginning to emerge.

Not so fast. You predicted many gloomy things, and you seem to have quietly dropped the ones that have not born fruit so far. The most obvious example of this is the regime loyalists, which you used to liken Libya to post-Saddam Iraq, suggesting that they would lurk and engage in urban warfare. I don't want to jump the gun either, but so far these elements have not been a factor, they have not reemerged since evaporating. Neither are there obvious signs of a significant chunk of the population being very mad at NATO. I seem to remember that you did acknowledge that Tripoli fell more swiftly than you expected, but I don't remember you acknowledging that remnants of the regime have not been the factor you thought they would be, nor did Tripoli descend into absolute horror in the timescale you implied. It could yet do so in future, but several of your pessimistic predicts should be acknowledged as failed.

There are now two main factions that can be discerned amidst the chaos (many more I am sure, but two that really matter) On the one hand we have the TNC, an unelected, untested and unrepresentative organisation that takes it's legitimacy from the support it recieves from NATO and increasingly the "international community". It is made up of former regime members and ex Gaddafi ministers and speaks the language of liberal democracy.

The former regime people are an important aspect of the TNC. But its quite misleading to make it sound like thats all the TNC is, there are people who were involved with Libya in the past but were not actually part of the regime, and there are people who were anti-Gaddafi exiles for many years before returning to Libya once the conflict took shape.

The ground is thus being laid for conflict between two conflicting claims of legitimacy. One that claims legitimacy from military struggle and victory and one that is self appointed and enjoying the support of the West. We can expect that conflict to increase on a number of levels. As I predicted Libya is headed towards civil war. When it does we can expect an Afghani situation (in fact the analogy is increasingly accurate) with an unrepresentative pro Western regime clinging to power with Western support and surrounded by an armed insurgency.

The Afghan analogy remains poor. The various groups which you think will turn on each other were all on the same side under NATO, and in Afghanistan the violence after the Taliban were pushed out of power was not down to in-fighting within the northern alliance. Any rivalries that did exist within the northern alliance did not cause huge waves of violence, they were kept in check and compelled to support the President. Rather the violence in Afghanistan has been due to a resurgence of people fighting for the regime that was forced out of power, the Taliban. And in Libya we don't know exactly what NATO, or the likes of Qatar, will do if violence kicks off between the groups. Its pretty clear they want the TNC to rule, but its not clear what armed forces the TNC can actually call upon to fight for its position, nor whether NATO etc will fully back this and engage in violence against other factions should circumstances deteriorate.

Hopefully you know that there is still much that I do agree with you upon, but enough with the Iraq and Afghan analogies, at the very least they aren't a close fit so why bother? If Libya turns into a complete horror for more than the regime-loyalists and blacks who were unjustly caught up in things, then there is no need to try to use the horrors of Iraq and Afghan to hype the picture of woe, it will be ugly enough on its own.

Should conflict erupt between the TNC and other armed anti-Gaddafi groups, then it may prove hard for me to find a side to back. The liberal TNC agenda sucks, so I'd like to see things go pear shaped for them before they get a chance to sell off the economy. But Libya seems to be a pretty socially conservative society, so Im not likely to find a side that is promoting the sort of Libya Id want if I lived there.