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Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

What happens if the rebels start attacking Gadaffi towns and villages and kill civilians? Especially if they are armed as Clinton hinted at?

Oh what a tangled web….
 
Reads as propaganda no less than those who argue the opposite. I've argued for a tribal component to this conflict based on the fact that the rebels are (or were at least) Senussi-led, but it remains to be seen how the structure of the insurrection will take shape in the weeks and months ahead.

And this bit towards the end "By labelling us as "tribal" you effectively dismiss the notion that our uprising has anything to do with freedom, democracy or human dignity".... really? I can see the post-orientalism angle he might be coming from, but at the same time tribal can be used merely as a sociological denominator.

No, I think that's right: in ordinary discourse in the west, 'tribal' and 'tribe' are loaded terms, words that carry a great deal of implicit baggage from the 19th century. In the popular imagination in the West, the concept of tribe is still associated with primitive atavism, and seen as part of societies that are not fully modern.

My guess would be that in fact in the Libyan context 'tribal' networks survive in the context of modernisation because they provide social networks through which individuals and groups can obtain leverage and recruit patrons/clients with which they can accomplish their goals - that's the tribal element not only to the revolt but also to pre-revolt life in Gadaffi's Libya.

I hadn't heard that the revolt was Senussi-led. That's very interesting if true. Evans-Pritchard wrote a piece c.1944 claiming that the Senussi had last no less than half their original population from the Italian conquest 1911 onwards, and lost them to the Italian colonial and fascist counter-insurgency campaigns. Sounds like they're tough people in other words.

E2A: Looking at that last paragraph, I'm guilty of the same crime as the peddlars of 'tribalism'! What I should have said is that the Senussi are by no means the homogeneous block that people might assume they are: some might be fervently anti-Gadaffi, others might be biding their time, etc. And their will be strong divisions within this 'tribal' group, as within other such groups.
 
Maybe one of the ex-squaddies on here could give their opinion on how hard (or not) it is to hold a town once you've captured it?
 
@ Idris, Yeah, I can see where you're coming from. I should stress that I'm not 100% sure about the role of the Senussi in the rebellion. For one a Senussi, Abdullah Senussi is G's BIL and was his right-hand man.
 
Maybe one of the ex-squaddies on here could give their opinion on how hard (or not) it is to hold a town once you've captured it?

Really depends on how long you have to prepare before the counter attack comes in.The problem with war in deserts is logistics unless someone turns up quickly with truck loads of stuff.You end up having to run away as the enemies stuff is nearer to them and you used all your stuff taking the town.And their coming back with lots of ammo etc.
With fresh troops and supplies 48hrs you could make it a problem for them to retake.Give it a week and you could turn it into something needing
a fallujah style effort to get back.
 
Maybe one of the ex-squaddies on here could give their opinion on how hard (or not) it is to hold a town once you've captured it?
Defending anything, esp a built up area is easier to do than to attack it and take it (leaving aside matters like huge disparities in firepower, the demeanour of the population and suply lines)

That the rebels are supposedly taking these towns then losing them is rather odd. Once you've taken them you should be able to hold them, as long as you have supplies and the population is with you :hmm:

</armchair general>
 
Rebels in full rout now.

I would suggest that it is unlikely that France and Britain will stand back and watch them be totally defeated...

They have invested too much political capital in them
 
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Ugh I just hurt my brain by skimming over the first 300 posts of this thread again to remind myself what was being said in the early days. I hadnt realised quite how much of my time I spent bitching about the quality of information and padding my messages with caution . Im still not prepared to form a full conclusion about the will of the masses of LIbya, or the full list of ingredients and sponsors of the shit I've been smelling since the start.

It was always going to be hard to maintain the special feeling that events in Tunisia & Egypt caused, for the subsequent counter-revolutionary moves in Egypt were likely to return us to sour normality, but throw in brutally crushed protests elsewhere, and all that we've seen from Egypt and bleurgh, downer man. Hopefully some have managed to capture the moment in Egypt and keep at least a trace of that feeling safe inside, no matter what other horrors the world faces in 2011 and beyond.
 
It was always going to be hard to maintain the special feeling that events in Tunisia & Egypt caused, for the subsequent counter-revolutionary moves in Egypt were likely to return us to sour normality, but throw in brutally crushed protests elsewhere, and all that we've seen from Egypt and bleurgh, downer man. Hopefully some have managed to capture the moment in Egypt and keep at least a trace of that feeling safe inside, no matter what other horrors the world faces in 2011 and beyond.

I don't think the geni will go back into the bottle.
 
I just watched on BBC News the forward rebels taking fire from Gaddafi forces and retreating. One of them spoke english and to the BBC reporter he said no one is in charge, there are no commanders, they decide what to do amongst themselves. And what they had decided to do, was run!

I think this is a key problem, there are no military minds on the rebels side, consequently they have no strategy, even with their old weapons, without a plan they are just driving up to Gaddafi forces and when they come under fire they are fleeing.
 
Tunisia's official news agency says the Libyan foreign minister has flown to London after a two-day visit to Tunisia.

The TAP news agency says Mousa Kousa was on an early afternoon flight Wednesday by an unidentified Swiss carrier from the Tunisian resort of Djerba to the British capital.

The report gave no details for the reason for the trip to London, where on Tuesday dozens of countries took part in an international conference about the crisis in Libya.

TAP reported Monday that Kousa had arrived that day in Tunisia on a "private" visit. There was speculation yesterday that Kousa has defected.

There's been rumours over the last couple of days that he has defected. Or maybe he's just coming here on sightseeing trip
 
Cannot remember if Mousa Kousa's prior reputation had been discussed here before now, but heres a 2009 article that makes interesting reading in places.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...elped-secure-release-of-Lockerbie-bomber.html

At the negotiating table was Mousa Kousa, listed in the official minutes as an interpreter for the Libyans. It was an understatement of magnificent proportions. For Mr Kousa, a dapper Libyan with a shock of silver hair, has been a close confidant for 30 years of the country’s leader, Col Muammar Gaddafi.

A “terror mastermind”, accused in some quarters of planning the Lockerbie bombing, Mr Kousa played a leading role in securing Megrahi’s release.

At that first meeting after Megrahi’s cancer diagnosis – also attended by Sir Vincent Fean, Britain’s ambassador to Libya – on Oct 27 last year, Mr Kousa is listed as an interpreter. At the second meeting in January, he is given the then correct title of Minister of Security. In March he was promoted out of the shadows to foreign minister.
 
Every day confirms me in my opinion that the West is trying to impose permanent war and chaos on Libya, as they have on Iraq and Afghanistan. I believe they want the entire middle east in that condition.
 
I don't buy that. They are capable of monumental cock-ups mostly involving self-interests and this is another one of potentially epic proportions.
 
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