Libya - civil unrest & now NATO involvement

[dylans]

And under your alternative ... There would by now have been a bloodbath in Benghazi and Gaddafi would be busy dissapearing his critics - never to be seen again!

Instead we may see a bloodbath in Sirte and its residents blown to pieces by AC 130 gattling guns. Do you actually believe that air strikes can be used a built up city without massive civilian casualties? Not to mention the fact that in Sirte it is the civilian population who are reported to be armed. Are they now to be considered legitimate targets?
Oh we forget our history so easily. AC 130s were used in Fallujah in Iraq. Do you remember that slaughter? The Red Cross do.

On November 16, 2004, a Red Cross official told Inter Press Service that "at least 800 civilians" had been killed in Fallujah and indicated that "they had received several reports from refugees that the military had dropped cluster bombs in Fallujah, and used a phosphorus weapon that caused severe burns."

 

[dylans]

We have had the precision target bullshit before. It was a lie in Fallujah and it will be a lie if they attack Sirte. So go ahead support the slaughter of the civilian population of Sirte but don't dress it up as anything to do with "protecting civilians" that is just too offensive for words

 

[weltweit]

We have had the precision target bullshit before. It was a lie in Fallujah and it will be a lie if they attack Sirte. So go ahead support the slaughter of the civilian population of Sirte but don't dress it up as anything to do with "protecting civilians" that is just too offensive for words

And Dylans don't forget that your preferred option, of not intervening at all, would already have resulted in the storming and defeat of Benghazi, the destruction of the rebellion execution of its members and the dissapearance of Gaddafi's critics.

You write as if your course of action would not have resulted in the smallest drop of blood being spilled, that is simply not the case!

 

[weltweit]

Instead we may see a bloodbath in Sirte and its residents blown to pieces by AC 130 gattling guns. Do you actually believe that air strikes can be used a built up city without massive civilian casualties? Not to mention the fact that in Sirte it is the civilian population who are reported to be armed. Are they now to be considered legitimate targets?
Oh we forget our history so easily. AC 130s were used in Fallujah in Iraq. Do you remember that slaughter? The Red Cross do.

We may see that. I hope not and I hope that the UN 1973 coalition will continue to be as careful as possible to avoid civilian casualties.

Indeed I wonder about the wiseness of this rush forward that the rebels seem to do at the smallest opportunity. When the truth is, even if they managed to get to the outskirts of Tripoli there is nothing really at the moment that they can do against the garrisons there.

I wonder if a problem like Sirte might better be handled by surrounding it and denying Gaddafi's forces fuel and ammunition until they run out and must give themselves up. There is no hurry, it is better to avoid fighting amongst civilians than to rush in and cause unnecessary deaths. Anyhow, I am not a military strategist - the trouble is I don't think many in the rebels leadership are either!

 

[Kid_Eternity]

We have had the precision target bullshit before. It was a lie in Fallujah and it will be a lie if they attack Sirte. So go ahead support the slaughter of the civilian population of Sirte but don't dress it up as anything to do with "protecting civilians" that is just too offensive for words

Precision targeting does exist but what they mean is that instead of hitting a general area or say half a mile square they can hit a square metre, doesn't take into account blast radius or environmental impact (ie building collapsing) I think...

 

[dylans]

And Dylans don't forget that your preferred option, of not intervening at all, would already have resulted in the storming and defeat of Benghazi, the destruction of the rebellion execution of its members and the dissapearance of Gaddafi's critics.

You write as if your course of action would not have resulted in the smallest drop of blood being spilled, that is simply not the case!

Don't you get it yet? The very fact that Gaddafi could roll back the rebellion was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win. The very fact that it needed to appeal to Western powers to intervene was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win.

If this had been a genuine national democratic struggle, one that was embraced by all Libyans then all the guns in Gaddafi's arsenal would be incapable of putting it down. The revolution lost because it wasn't a revolution. It was a regional rebellion that had a chance, a small chance of becoming a national struggle but failed. All the rest is theatre to cover what this has become. A foreign aggression.

 

[dylans]

We may see that. I hope not and I hope that the UN 1973 coalition will continue to be as careful as possible to avoid civilian casualties.

I'm sorry but 1973 is rapidly becoming farcical. Under the guise of protecting civilians and protecting a city under siege. We now see the sending in of gunships to bomb a city and support a siege. If 1973 was anything but a hypocritical joke the West should now be bombing the rebels and protecting Sirte. The resolution says nothing of protecting only those that agree with the rebellion. It says protecting civilians. There are lots of civilians in Sirte. They are the ones doing the fighting.

 

[Spymaster]

Don't you get it yet? The very fact that Gaddafi could roll back the rebellion was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win. The very fact that it needed to appeal to Western powers to intervene was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win.

If this had been a genuine national democratic struggle, one that was embraced by all Libyans then all the guns in Gaddafi's arsenal would be incapable of putting it down. The revolution lost because it wasn't a revolution. It was a regional rebellion that had a chance, a small chance of becoming a national struggle but failed. All the rest is theatre to cover what this has become. A foreign aggression.

So where does that leave the 'unstoppable Arab rebellion' that you were so certain was occurring a couple of weeks ago?

Seems to me that any despot who keeps the army under control has nothing to fear.

 

[weltweit]

Don't you get it yet? The very fact that Gaddafi could roll back the rebellion was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win. The very fact that it needed to appeal to Western powers to intervene was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win.

They did not have enough of the armed forces on their side is the conclusion I come to and Gaddafi was not ignorant of the possibility of his army turning on him, it was after all how he came to power himself atop a rebel tank. Gaddafi took measures to ensure the loyalty of his troops, my feeling is that these had the effect he hoped they would.

If this had been a genuine national democratic struggle, one that was embraced by all Libyans then all the guns in Gaddafi's arsenal would be incapable of putting it down. The revolution lost because it wasn't a revolution. It was a regional rebellion that had a chance, a small chance of becoming a national struggle but failed. All the rest is theatre to cover what this has become. A foreign aggression.

As far as I am concerned we are ahead the sacking of one city (Benghazi) because of intervention. And so far the intervention has not caused significant civilian casualties which is good.

This situation presents the west and Arab neighbours an opportunity to rid the region of a tyrant who has funded and carried out international terrorism (including the Pan Am 103 bombing in Lockerbie). As such it is an opportunity that could be beneficial to western and local interests.

Your argument that it is not a proper revolution because it was not winning is a pretty weak one, so you Dylans are effectively saying MIGHT IS RIGHT and if you do not have might on your side you must be wrong. I am afraid that argument does not hold water for me, tyrants down the ages have had might on their side but have been totally repellant regimes at the same time.

 

[elbows]

@ dylans - nah, not so sure. Interesting to see yesterday that the topic of Gaddafi being offered a safe African haven was being seriously floated. So that's one scenario, tho Lord knows how that would play out. Civil war could happen either way - sure looks like that's where it's headed atm.

Yeah, missing from dylans post on this subject was the idea that various countries may have been hoping for Gaddafi to be forced out at quite a number of different moments during the last month. Its quite possible that some cling to the hope that they dont actually need the rebels to take Tripoli by military means, that Gaddafi will go before it comes to that. I cannot accurately assess how likely this is because I dont have access to enough info, and cannot trust many of the public comments made about this sort of thing.

 

[elbows]

There are lots of civilians in Sirte. They are the ones doing the fighting.

Are they? I havent had a lot of time to keep up with things but I was under the impression that the rebels had not quite made it to Sirte yet, despite some bullshit the other day. And in fact they ended up going backwards after being attacked by Gaddafi forces. And as I dont know the nature of these Gaddafi forces, save that they appeared to have heavy weaponry, I cannot say they are the citizens of Sirte.

But like I said, there has been bullshit flying around and I havent had much time recently, so maybe I have missed a Sirte development that would support what you said, if so please point me in the right direction.

Assuming the rebels actually make it to Sirte, it will be a huge test that may answer questions that I have so far been unwilling to make firm conclusions about, and have caused me to moan at other people for getting ahead of themselves when presenting the will of the Libyan masses as some sort of clearly known thing at this point.

It does seeem like a reasonable bet that the rebels and the people of Sirte may not get on very well when the time comes, but I'll resist the assumptions until this actually happens. Several times we have been on the brink of this, only to see the rebels retreat, and although its tempting to draw a conclusion from this alone, the Gaddafi military forces are a factor that gets in the way of my ability to see what the population might really think in Sirte.

 

[dylans]

So where does that leave the 'unstoppable Arab rebellion' that you were so certain was occurring a couple of weeks ago?

Seems to me that any despot who keeps the army under control has nothing to fear.

Good question. In fact a question that deserves its own thread. My short answer is nothing has changed. Two steps forward one step back as Lenin said. (and yeah I know he didn't) The regional revolutionary process is still unstoppable.Which is one reason why I oppose Western intervention. Syria is now aflame. Yemen is about to fall. Bahrain is a tinderbox.The process that is sweeping the region will consume Gaddafi anyway sooner or later without the West sticking its meddling nose into Libyan affairs.

The motives for Western intervention differ amongst the players but there is a single theme and one shared by the US, Britain, France and the Gulf States (all of whom have their own motives too) What they share is a fear of the uncontrollable and independence of the regional upheavals and a desire to control and redirect what is in essence a regional movement for self determination. The same dynamic that seeks to engineer the nature of the regime change in Egypt is attempting to force regime change in Libya and stop regime change in Bahrain. What we are witnessing in Libya is the castration of the Libyan revolution.

 

[elbows]

What we are witnessing in Libya is the castration of the Libyan revolution.

I dont know if that imagery fits with your beliefs that the revolution had already failed anyway. Its more of a cock-ring than a castration at this point. And some people think the cock-ring has been on since the start.

 

[weltweit]

US paves way to arm Libyan rebels
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/arms-libya-rebels
Clinton tells London conference that UN security council resolution 1973 over-rode absolute prohibition of arms to Libya

 

[weltweit]

Libya's rebel government in waiting – and in hiding
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/libya-rebel-government-in-waiting
Revolutionaries who once imagined they would topple Gaddafi in days have had to cobble together an administration from scratch

 

[Idaho]

Don't you get it yet? The very fact that Gaddafi could roll back the rebellion was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win. The very fact that it needed to appeal to Western powers to intervene was evidence that it didn't have the support necessary to win.

If this had been a genuine national democratic struggle, one that was embraced by all Libyans then all the guns in Gaddafi's arsenal would be incapable of putting it down. The revolution lost because it wasn't a revolution. It was a regional rebellion that had a chance, a small chance of becoming a national struggle but failed. All the rest is theatre to cover what this has become. A foreign aggression.

I think you are right. However I don't think we can be in any doubt what would have happened in Benghazi and Misrata, etc if there had been no intervention. There would have been a heavy price to pay. And doubtless a few years down the line it would have kicked off again. There is a big cost in letting things take there course.

 

[Divisive Cotton]

He's partially correct. If it was just a regional conflict then there wouldn't be fighting in Misurata today, indeed, eight of the ten most populace Libyan towns and cities - east and west - fell to the rebels.

 

[Idaho]

Well quite. Also the ratio of internal security to population is probably quite high in Libya, not to mention the lack of restraint about those forces using violence and the fear of that violence.

 

[Casually Red]

I wonder if a problem like Sirte might better be handled by surrounding it and denying Gaddafi's forces fuel and ammunition until they run out and must give themselves up. There is no hurry, it is better to avoid fighting amongst civilians than to rush in and cause unnecessary deaths. Anyhow, I am not a military strategist - the trouble is I don't think many in the rebels leadership are either!

I wonder who is going to do the surrounding . The Libyan armed forces and militia volunteers have these bums on the run again despite the massive airpower arrayed against them . Theyve wisely regrouped and altered their tactics for a secondtime , a move that was highly successful last week and almost finished the reactionaries . Now despite blanket western aircover the wests proxies are back fleeing from the towns they overran again .
Theyve just lost Bin Jawad and are fleeing to Ras Lanuf , which itself looks likely to be liberated by government forces in the next few days if not even sooner . All being well theyll be back at the gates of Benghazi before too long .
The complete failure of western military might to overawe the government and pro government forces despite initial reverses that could have turned to a rout very easily can pointo only one thing - very well motivated troops with high determnation and morale . It would be very easy for them simply to defect or abscond in such circumstances but theyre doing the exact opposite . Its the wests proxies who are once again being routed despite the massive resources being expended in support of their attempted coup .
That determination and morale in the face of such massive odds can only come at this stage of the game from a keen sense of patriotism , duty and a fair degree of popular support to sustain it in the face of these odds . The army and militia havent melted away or un off or defected . Farfrom it , theyre back winning again and its the reactionaries who are fleeing .
The puppets may well be dangling from a string yet.

 

[ernestolynch]

Lol it's Obama's Bay of Pigs.

 

[Random]

It was a regional rebellion that had a chance, a small chance of becoming a national struggle but failed.

And that failure would have been accompanied by a major crackdown by Gadaffi. Opponents of intervention have to admit that, as welterweight says, their proposed course of events would also have led to a humanitarian disaster/massacres.

 

[dylans]

And that failure would have been accompanied by a major crackdown by Gadaffi. Opponents of intervention have to admit that, as welterweight says, their proposed course of events would also have led to a humanitarian disaster/massacres.

The absurdity of this statement made when Sirte is under siege and its population fighting to resist being overrun by rebel forces should be obvious to all. The siege of Sirte threatens no less a humanitarian disaster. The US has just brought in AC130 gunships. Planes specially designed for low level attacks in built up areas. The same gunships that were used in Fallujah.

Western intervention has possibly prevented Benghazi being overrun only to facilitate the overrunning of Sirte and Tripoli. What will you say if and when the civilian population of these towns are massacred by Western air raids and rebel forces?

 

[Divisive Cotton]

Except, unlike Gadaffi's men, there is no evidence of mistreatment by the rebels of Gadaffi loyalists, so arguing that that the "civilian population" will be "massacred" by "rebel forces" is just shrill alarmism.

 

[dylans]

Except, unlike Gadaffi's men, there is no evidence of mistreatment by the rebels of Gadaffi loyalists, so arguing that that the "civilian population" will be "massacred" by "rebel forces" is just shrill alarmism.

Unless you are black

Africans have become targets of anti-government Libyans and that they "will be slaughtered in Libya

I think it is urgent to do something about it now, otherwise, a genocide against anyone who has black skin and who doesn't speak perfect Arabic is possible,

 

[Divisive Cotton]

here we go, it's the Arab BNP card again.

I've seen plenty of photos and video shots of black fighters amongst the rebels

 

[Random]

The absurdity of this statement made when Sirte is under siege and its population fighting to resist being overrun by rebel forces should be obvious to all. The siege of Sirte threatens no less a humanitarian disaster.

I take it by your last sentence that you admit that the siege and taking of Benghazi would have been a humanitarian disaster. I agree with the rest of your post, btw. I've never been a supporter of the airstrikes and I think now the question of who will 'protect civilians' from the rebel forces is becoming increasingly important. But I also think those opposing the airstrikes shouldn't whitewash the situation on the ground.

 

[dylans]

here we go, it's the Arab BNP card again.

I've seen plenty of photos and video shots of black fighters amongst the rebels

Please don't put words into my mouth. I never said that. Nevertheless there is widespread and confirmed reports of systematic attacks on migrant workers by rebels and it does your case no good to paint the rebels as saints.
The fact is Sirte is resisting rebel attack and the population of this and other loyalist towns are entitled to the same humanitarian consideration as the residents of Benghazi.

Across eastern Libya, rebel fighters and their supporters are detaining, intimidating and frequently beating African immigrants and black Libyans, , witnesses and human rights workers say.

There have been "widespread and systematic attacks" on Africans and black Libyans by rebels and their supporters as they attempt to root out suspected mercenaries,

"Thousands of Africans have come under attack and lost their homes and possessions during the recent fighting," Bouckaert said in an interview Friday in Benghazi. "A lot of Africans have been caught up in this mercenary hysteria."

As many as eight Libyans who fought with pro-Kadafi forces in a battle for the oil hub of Port Brega were shot or stabbed to death by rebels Wednesday,

 

[dylans]

I take it by your last sentence that you admit that the siege and taking of Benghazi would have been a humanitarian disaster. I agree with the rest of your post, btw. I've never been a supporter of the airstrikes and I think now the question of who will 'protect civilians' from the rebel forces is becoming increasingly important. But I also think those opposing the airstrikes shouldn't whitewash the situation on the ground.

Yes. It would have been a tragedy. I am no supporter of Gaddafi and think people like casually red are a disgrace. I am questioning however if the fall of Tripoli or Sirte or other loyalist towns will be any less of a tragedy. It is clear that towns like Sirte are fiercely resisting rebel attack. That tells us that the rebels will take the town against the wishes of its citizens.

 

[weltweit]

dylans what is all this about Sirte, as far as I can work out the rebels have been beaten back to at least Ras Lanuf. There is no siege of Sirte going on, they didn't get that far. afaict.

 

[IC3D]

I'm getting the impression now the rebel forces can't win anything, I haven't seen a single tank or anyone looking like a former soldier that was originally claimed.