It seems the West is facing an increasingly difficult dilemma. All hopes were that airstrikes would even the playing field and allow the rebels to sweep west regaining lost ground and eventually taking Tripoli. However it is becoming apparent that even without airpower or even heavy weapons the loyalist troops are doing a pretty good job of holding back the rebels. They were pushed into general retreat today in front of Sirte. Now if this is ineeded the case and even with air support the Eastern rebels prove incapable of pushing past Sirte, then the West has a problem.
Do they bomb the shit out of Sirte, killing the civilian population, many of whom are the towns defenders, in which case they may facilitate the rebels further advance but the UN mandate will be in tatters. Talk of "defending civilians will be a grim joke and the UN and Arab league support will probably evaporate.
Or do they simply reinforce the stalemate by bombing any loyalist army heavy weapons and preventing a loyalist counter offensive in the knowledge that without more offensive action from the air the rebels will be unable to advance. In such a scenario the West risks creating a partition of the country. Two emirates East and West with an aggressive and wounded Gaddafi still in power in Tripoli. Such a situation may be a long term open wound in the country and involve a long term military commitment from the West to prevent Gaddafi clawing back lost territory. In such a case we could be in for a long and drawn out, not to say absurdly expensive, involvement from the West, another open ended war to add to the two the US and Britain are already up to their necks in.
Or, they could follow the logic of their own actions and explicitly side with the rebellion. Sell them arms and train an army and throw it at Tripoli. But this just begs the next question. What if that fails? Then, deeply committed to a civil war the next step is obvious. Boots on the ground. This is where this is leading step by bloody step
