weltweit
Well-Known Member
That isn't good news!Yes, the word seems to be that PRC will make a move before the end of the year.
Hong Kong: what next?
- Thread starter treelover
- Start date
I don't believe China will invade Taiwan until they can be absolutely certain of success, which they are very far from.
Chinese military is untested and suffers from nepotism and corruption even worse than the Russian military.
Taiwan is mountainous and only has a few dozen kilometers of beaches suitable for landing a beachhead, and far superior military technology to Ukraine. Drones, underwater mines (remote controlled) and conventional anti ship missiles make a landing very hard. And Taiwan has been preparing for this single condition for over 70 years.
There are only a couple of months a year when weather conditions in an area prone to typhoons and extreme weather are suitable for crossing the strait, and climate is so unpredictable now that it isn't out of the question that an unexpected typhoon could sink the invasion fleet even during what are usually mild times of year.
Unlike Russia, China is not self-sufficient in food, energy, or raw materials, and is far more dependent on the global economy. There are therefore far more vulnerable to sanctions, and most developed countries are aiming to decouple from China these days anyway.
China has the world's worst ageing population problem due to a combination of the one child policy, lack of investment in pensions and basic welfare systems, and one of if not the most expensive housing markets relative to average income in the world. Sacrificing or maiming hundreds of thousands or even millions of young men, who will mostly be the only children or even grandchildren of their families, will be a severe trauma on Chinese society, which more than most cultures emphasises continuation of the family line.
The risks involved in invading Taiwan are high, and the cost of failure is potentially massive. So I don't think they will, but they will continue militarising and upping the pressure until the balance of forces is so that it is a fait accompli.
That said, at the latest Party Congress Xi has surrounded himself with yes-men, so he could be led to believe that success will be easy. Miscalculation and overconfidence is the real danger - nevertheless, an invasion would fail and set China back decades.
Chinese military is untested and suffers from nepotism and corruption even worse than the Russian military.
Taiwan is mountainous and only has a few dozen kilometers of beaches suitable for landing a beachhead, and far superior military technology to Ukraine. Drones, underwater mines (remote controlled) and conventional anti ship missiles make a landing very hard. And Taiwan has been preparing for this single condition for over 70 years.
There are only a couple of months a year when weather conditions in an area prone to typhoons and extreme weather are suitable for crossing the strait, and climate is so unpredictable now that it isn't out of the question that an unexpected typhoon could sink the invasion fleet even during what are usually mild times of year.
Unlike Russia, China is not self-sufficient in food, energy, or raw materials, and is far more dependent on the global economy. There are therefore far more vulnerable to sanctions, and most developed countries are aiming to decouple from China these days anyway.
China has the world's worst ageing population problem due to a combination of the one child policy, lack of investment in pensions and basic welfare systems, and one of if not the most expensive housing markets relative to average income in the world. Sacrificing or maiming hundreds of thousands or even millions of young men, who will mostly be the only children or even grandchildren of their families, will be a severe trauma on Chinese society, which more than most cultures emphasises continuation of the family line.
The risks involved in invading Taiwan are high, and the cost of failure is potentially massive. So I don't think they will, but they will continue militarising and upping the pressure until the balance of forces is so that it is a fait accompli.
That said, at the latest Party Congress Xi has surrounded himself with yes-men, so he could be led to believe that success will be easy. Miscalculation and overconfidence is the real danger - nevertheless, an invasion would fail and set China back decades.
I largely agree with Rimbaud here.
Additionally, I've heard/read that 2027 is a year to think about. This marks the end of Xi's current five year term and, I think there's no doubt, that he is minded to "solve" the Taiwan issue before he leaves office. Obviously much will depend on how China fares during the next few years, though if the economy goes badly wrong, I think the danger increases - particularly (as Rimbaud highlights,) now that his top team (six men,) are all fervent loyalists before all else.
If things go well for Xi (and it's a very big "if",) over the next few years and a further extension of his 15 year tenure looks likely, it may take some pressure off but (and it's a very big "but",) if things worsen economically - and there're many different threads that could unravel everything very fast - it may help precipitate a military offensive; the masses would love it, at least until people on the mainland are getting bombed.
The situation remains difficult to predict as economic and geopolitical circumstances are changing fast. One thing I've believed for years is that Xi's constant ratcheting up of internal security is, at least in part, designed to make it easier to manage the populace in the case of a major, prolonged economic downturn/crisis (it has to happen at some point and the current signals are far from favourable). But, as he becomes more and more isolated from any dissent, the danger increases commensurately.
Finally, the next Taiwan presidential election (2024?) will be critical and another win by the incumbent party could tilt things further towards confrontation. And if Xi thinks that the DPP are likely to remain dominant beyond 2028, I think the dangers of a military intervention by 2027 increase exponentially.
Watch this space ...
Woof
Additionally, I've heard/read that 2027 is a year to think about. This marks the end of Xi's current five year term and, I think there's no doubt, that he is minded to "solve" the Taiwan issue before he leaves office. Obviously much will depend on how China fares during the next few years, though if the economy goes badly wrong, I think the danger increases - particularly (as Rimbaud highlights,) now that his top team (six men,) are all fervent loyalists before all else.
If things go well for Xi (and it's a very big "if",) over the next few years and a further extension of his 15 year tenure looks likely, it may take some pressure off but (and it's a very big "but",) if things worsen economically - and there're many different threads that could unravel everything very fast - it may help precipitate a military offensive; the masses would love it, at least until people on the mainland are getting bombed.
The situation remains difficult to predict as economic and geopolitical circumstances are changing fast. One thing I've believed for years is that Xi's constant ratcheting up of internal security is, at least in part, designed to make it easier to manage the populace in the case of a major, prolonged economic downturn/crisis (it has to happen at some point and the current signals are far from favourable). But, as he becomes more and more isolated from any dissent, the danger increases commensurately.
Finally, the next Taiwan presidential election (2024?) will be critical and another win by the incumbent party could tilt things further towards confrontation. And if Xi thinks that the DPP are likely to remain dominant beyond 2028, I think the dangers of a military intervention by 2027 increase exponentially.
Watch this space ...
Woof
No.
Your short, enigmatic contributions often leave me baffled, gosub, and unable to grasp what you're trying to get at or if you're even (being) serious about anything. Essentially incomprehensible.
Maybe it's just me being either dumb or oversensitive but, to my mind, plain English (even if idiomatic and nuanced,) would make things much easier.
Be well.
(Edit: To remove the comma after (being,) but the sentence construct is clumsy anyway and I'm not sure on the grammar so fuck it either way!
)Woof
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I also have the same suspicion about Zero Covid. It seems Xi intends to continue "dynamic zero covid" indefinitely, even as the pandemic becomes a mere memory for the rest of the world.
Alarm in Beijing after announcement zero-Covid policy may last five years
Communist party official posts notice saying mass mandatory testing and travel curbs will continue
Beijing Secretary Cai Qi who advocated 5 more years of Zero Covid was promoted to Standing Committee.
Also Li Qiang, who oversaw the disastrous Shanghai lockdown has been rewarded with a position on the Standing Committee.
What does make me nervous is my predictions about China not risking war with Taiwan depend on China being a rational actor.
What the promotion of Li Qiang in particular says is that Xi is promoting people not on performance but on loyalty to his agenda.
Also of note is the humiliation of Hu Jintao, and the demotion of Li Keqiang and Wang Yang marking the end of any meritocracy in the Chinese political system. All these people were from ordinary backgrounds and rose through the ranks of the Communist Youth League through ability. Unlike Xi, a mediocrity who relied on nepotism and his famous dad to rise through the ranks.
The technocrats who rose through the CYL oversaw China's period of strong economic growth and gave it a reputation for good management.
Xi has returned to a more personal style of rule, and with that we are already seeing irrational policies like Zero Covid pursued due to his personal whims. Now he got rid of the CYL and all rivals, I fear that the worst is yet to come.
Again.
This makes no sense. Reconciliation and soft power by subsuming a distinct sporting identity into that of a fascist regime?
And what the fuck has Ireland got to do with Taiwan?
And nuclear war?
Sorry gosub. I'm trying here but am losing faith in your contributions.
(Edit: And "Just saying", comes across more as Joe Rogan at best or Alex Jones at worst, rather than any sensible input ... Just saying.
)Woof
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Whataboutery regarding the USA, in any context, rarely plays well among Hong Kong (and Taiwanese,) democrats. We all know the US is usually a complete fucking arse but we're up close in the face with actual fucking fascism here.
Some perspective please.
Woof
ska invita
back on the other side
Could someone translate these posters please
ska invita
back on the other side
8ball
Maximum Facepalm
Something something not being fully on board with the Chinese Government.
gosub
~#
Its not facism (a bundle of sticks tied together is stronger) its totalitarianism....Given where Xi has taken China you'd have to add to your reciepe of fascism first mash the sticks into a pulp and turn into MDF
gosub
~#
Ireland / Taiwan trying to avoid whataboutery as the latest series of Seventeen Moments of Spring has really jumped the shark...No way Stierlitz spent the entire time studying theology in a deep seated attempt to unify the Russian Orthodox Church with Shia Islam...so shall stick to abstract...Again.
This makes no sense. Reconciliation and soft power by subsuming a distinct sporting identity into that of a fascist regime?
And what the fuck has Ireland got to do with Taiwan?
And nuclear war?
Sorry gosub. I'm trying here but am losing faith in your contribution
(Edit: And "Just saying", comes across more as Joe Rogan at best or Alex Jones at worst, rather than any sensible input ... Just saying.
Woof
Sticking to the last 100 years (i'll do you a potted from earlier if you want, Boar war, earlier if you like)...you've got the Irish and the Irishish and a bit of a push me pull you politically... course back then wasn't a democracy as we know it today, you had to be a bloke and have land to have a say. Of course the loaded had land all over the place a bit here, a bit there, a lot of it badly managed and tennents exploited and abused....lead to a bit of thing and the Irish (being Irish) sort of confused Landed Gentry with English but I digress.
Heard comparisons made at UN (during Trump) likening situation between US China as like GB Germany beginning of last century, well the Kaiser certainly stuck its oar in there....But thats politics both national and international and at time of war (so it goes). Though that was in a pre nuclear age.
Might as well see what players HK could add to a China team probably still get their arses kicked for a fair while.
Asso Asso Yogoshi!
Top right picture-
Stand with Uighurs
Stand with Tibetans
Stand with HKers
Stand with Taiwanese
Stand with Iranians
Stand with Ukrainians
Stand with all the world's people who resist dictatorship, oppression and violence
The main picture says something about "this account has been blocked for illegal content" blablabla, its a screenshot of what you get if you try to view a deleted Wechat account.
Underneath where it says "FUCK CCP! " it says "Xi Jinping resign!"
No to patriarchy
No to monopoly capitalism
No to rape culture
No to police violence
And, of course, press freedom remains strong ...
hongkongfp.com
And films are not censored ...
hongkongfp.com
Happy days.
Woof
Team of journalists resigned after SCMP axed 3-part series on Xinjiang abuses, ex-editor says - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
Two reporters quit the South China Morning Post (SCMP) last year after a senior editor axed their three-month investigation into human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang region, according to an editor who resigned shortly after. During a Foreign Correspondents’ Club talk in Japan on October 13...
hongkongfp.com
And films are not censored ...
Screening of Taiwanese documentary axed at Hong Kong film festival after censors request removal of protest scenes - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
A screening of a documentary about migrant workers in Taiwan has been scrapped after Hong Kong censors requested the removal of protest scenes, according to the film’s director. The Taiwanese documentary The Lucky Woman was initially scheduled to be screened as part of the Hong Kong Arts...
hongkongfp.com
Happy days.
Woof
ska invita
back on the other side
thanks a lot Rimbaud - that one in particular intrigued me
An update on yesterday's HKFP report on the SCMP journalists resigning.
It seems that the SCMP don't want anybody else to publish the series of three in-depth reports either; the result of a team of journalists investigating for three months and using official mainland data.
A short thread from Tom Grundy at HKFP.
Woof
It seems that the SCMP don't want anybody else to publish the series of three in-depth reports either; the result of a team of journalists investigating for three months and using official mainland data.
A short thread from Tom Grundy at HKFP.
Woof
bluescreen
tofu eating wokerati
During the military exercise earlier this year there was, in effect, a temporary blockade of Taiwan. Is there a likelihood of this being the method, using a siege to weaken the island before launching any kind of invasion or even surrender?
In my view, a traditional "siege", per se, is unnecessary. My guesstimate of timescales is above.
For obvious reasons, China is Taiwan's main trading partner - by far. The interlinked economies, with many Taiwanese businesses having operated in China since the early 1980's - when opening up began on the mainland - leaves Taiwan hugely vulnerable to economic retaliation by Beijing (see Lithuania and others).
China has already, increasingly, been sanctioning Taiwanese exporters (to China,) in specific sectors and is ratcheting-up these measures. Taiwan is scrabbling to find other markets. Taiwanese businesses on the mainland are screaming blue murder (many of them support the KMT and greater integration, for obvious reasons).
I've been yelling for a number of years now for people to wake up. The "siege", if there be such, has been underway since the DPP won the 2016 election - and will continue.
General Secretary Xi is pinning his hopes on a KMT govt. in 2024. If that doesn't happen ...
Taiwan will not surrender. The Taiwanese will fight for their homeland and the recent, hard won, democracy and freedoms they enjoy. And they will fight with ferocity.
The world's democracies should prepare and decide where they're going to stand.
There are no "good people on both sides" here.
Be nice to each other peeps.
Woof
gosub
~#
trying to..Look after yourself.
Be well.
Woof
gosub
~#
Chinese embassy issues trade threat to UK over Manchester consulate beating
A spokesman has said the actions of a few risks China and the UK's trading partnership as he used an Aesop's Fable to issue a warning and noted how important the relationship is between the UK and China.
news.sky.com
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