Griffin and BNP strategy
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butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Bear in mind that poll taken nearly two weeks ago. It's far more in line with my expectations then some of the daft ones we've seen recently. It also has the BNP on 7% in the midlands as well - though this may be undersestimated due to being bundled in with wales for some reason. And the first suggestion that the BNP may do better in London that many expect. 5% in this poll.
edit: and to put those figues into some further context -they did the same poll a week before the expenses scandal blew up - BNP was on 6% UKIP on 6%, and the Greens on 3% (also found 8% BNP support in GE, so that's possibly a soft 6%, same for Greens where it was 1% for GE)
edit2: just noticed somerthing in that D Wall analysis of the Salford result:
-that's not going to good for the green vote in the city areas they're pinning a lot of hope on.
edit: and to put those figues into some further context -they did the same poll a week before the expenses scandal blew up - BNP was on 6% UKIP on 6%, and the Greens on 3% (also found 8% BNP support in GE, so that's possibly a soft 6%, same for Greens where it was 1% for GE)
edit2: just noticed somerthing in that D Wall analysis of the Salford result:
-that's not going to good for the green vote in the city areas they're pinning a lot of hope on.
worth a punt then
dunno, not a betting man, but the odds are that they will win a seat, and i would trust a bookie over a pollster in this matter
William Hill now 2-5 on
Paddy Power 8/15 on
By-election tonight in Middlesbrough where they are standing- last before next weeks elections
Postal votes are starting to be opened and verified alreasy- and remours flying various forums that BNP support at the ballot box is far from 1%......
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
Butchers
"that's not going to good for the green vote in the city areas they're pinning a lot of hope on"
Student turnout at locals is always dismal. Doesnt mean to say it will be great next Thursday. Fascists have better history in Salford than Greens and in general it is far more of a potential fascist demographic off the bat.
"that's not going to good for the green vote in the city areas they're pinning a lot of hope on"
Student turnout at locals is always dismal. Doesnt mean to say it will be great next Thursday. Fascists have better history in Salford than Greens and in general it is far more of a potential fascist demographic off the bat.
euro results not in till the 9th apparrently .. do we get exit polls and leaks before? btw i am going for 3 for BNP .. one in London or south, one in NW and one in Yorks .. unless they fuck up badly between now and then .. one of their key strategies atm is to attack the UKIP (their main competitor) and their 'corruption' .. will see how that goes
had union collegue going on today about ' my sister says everyone where she lives in essex is voting bnp' .. he is very anti bnp
had union collegue going on today about ' my sister says everyone where she lives in essex is voting bnp' .. he is very anti bnp
dennisr
the acceptable face
They did not get the win they expected in the recent Irwell Riverside ward though, despite plenty of local press coverage and leafleting - "a straight fight between us and labour" was the leaflet..
They only gained 43 votes over the previous election - polling 276 (17%) - ending up in third place. Nw Labour held the seat but lost a 1/4 of its vote. LibDems and Tories also lost votes - suggesting votes going to green or UKIP.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I thinnk one NW, close in either east/west mids/ Y&H - people will be suprised by the london vote.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Nah, grrens and UKIP both made no gains. BNP only party to gain votes.
That's a standing up vote on a falling turnout.
dennisr
the acceptable face
would not be too surprised to see such a result - i am more 'hopeful' (if you can call it that in the circumstances...) of 1
dennisr
the acceptable face
yep, fair point
yes i think london could throw a right wierd result .. possibly big green and big bnp votes?? christian party could also make a breakthru .. they could clear up a significant % of the afro carib and more so the african vote which
would hurt Labour a lot in inner London
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
They put in a pretty good effort in a promising-ish seat where they had a local candidate and good-ish previous results.
The result was pretty underwhelming, and they won't be able to pull off that amount of campaigning over the whole region.
Fair enough, UKIP didnt do great but over the region and the country I hope the British public will turn out to be just too decent and intelligent to vote for the filth in the neccessary numbers. Many will see UKIP as a respectable right-ish tilt and, just like last time, UKIP will probably keep the bona fide fascists at bay nationwide.
I agree with you that London could be the suprise.
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
In other news: The Manchester Evening News has been running high profile anti-BNP articles this week. At first I thought it would be a case of "no bad publicity" and looked to the comments sections for fascist apoligism. But most comments are pretty supportive and Griffin is very riled, calling The Screws "vermin" in a recent piece.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Fluff
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
As is this. but it's funny fluff. Apols if posted already.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_aIJN7KP5AeI/ShdYcg6_shI/AAAAAAAACcc/WCzl6pzkkMA/s1600-h/BNP-FLYER.jpg
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
North Ormesby & Brambles Farm (boro)
Lab 549
BNP 175 (19.06%)
Con 131
Lib Dem 63
2007 resuklt:
Tory - 186,
Lab - 582 (?)
Lab - 522(?)
New Nationalist Party - 118 (BNP split? edit: sh. ebanks party, now defunkt)
That's off SF mind.
Lab 549
BNP 175 (19.06%)
Con 131
Lib Dem 63
2007 resuklt:
Tory - 186,
Lab - 582 (?)
Lab - 522(?)
New Nationalist Party - 118 (BNP split? edit: sh. ebanks party, now defunkt)
That's off SF mind.
TremulousTetra
prismatic universe
analysis upon who their voters would vote for if they didn't vote BNP. What I have seen soul for seem to suggest they would vote UKIP or Conservative.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That's not why they're wining 70% plus of their seats in old labout wards.
taffboy gwyrdd
Embrace the confusion!
Indeed not. An AFA / LRC comrade and I had quite a heated debate in the boozer one night. He admitted that Labour had shat on the working class and that there was within the white working class a "parochial xenophobia". His words, not mine.
TremulousTetra
prismatic universe
but is it true they would vote UKIP or Conservative? It was demonstrated to be fact, in the London Mayor elections.
They are fucking good reasons why the labour voter is going down, new labour is Tory lite, but does your statistic automatically mean the one time labour voters are now voting for the fascist? Doesn't seem to be the case in the London Mayor elections.
Yep NNP were Ebanks splinter group- BNP vote up from 13% to 19% if you assume NNP voters are BNP ones as well. Not earth shattering, but still 19%, and second place here
Times Populus has them at 5% today- significantly up from 3% two weeks ago with the same polling organisation . 8% in The North of England
JHE
.
It might be significant, but I'm really not sure. Polls seem to be all over the place at the moment and we don't really know how public anger and exasperation at the expenses scandals are going to affect turnout or party choice.
In the case of the BNP, I think that sympathy for their views is far far wider than the number of people who will be willing to vote for them.
For fed-up patriotic voters (and ballerinas), there is at the moment an odd proliferation of little parties bidding for their votes. Round my way, we have (at least) the following:
BNP
UKIP
English Democrats [for an English parliament, I believe]
UK First [a split from UKIP?]
It's all very unpredictable.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Prediction. BNP - seat in NW, poss one in Y&H but i think will just fall short- but very close. Will do well in east and west mids but not well enough to geat a seat. The London/SE and East vote will suprise a lot of people. Will pick up a few more councillors in the country council elections, but not a huge number. Overall situation is going to depend very heavily on turn out.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
well I had my £20 with William Hills at 4-6 that they would get a seat which i think will be in the North West. I must say that looking at that essex video its apparant that the supposed no platform that some groups push is now utterly discredited as being just an academic slogan
dennisr
the acceptable face
yep, that sounds about right - and would not be 'too' bad - given the uproar over the main establishment parties at the moment. Still all a bit up in the air, its just a matter of 'wait and see' now
My Honest prediction after Labour's problems over last 2 days which may have ruined mod work has been doen over last few weeks by antifascists.
Sorry to say 2 Y&H and NW.
County Councillors - probably about 10
For first indications Keep eye on Linconshire CC for overnight county council results -very specifically the Boston and Holbeach where they are stand chance. If you want you can get the Lincs CC results Tweeted to you
http://twitter.com/lincsccelect
Sorry to say 2 Y&H and NW.
County Councillors - probably about 10
For first indications Keep eye on Linconshire CC for overnight county council results -very specifically the Boston and Holbeach where they are stand chance. If you want you can get the Lincs CC results Tweeted to you
http://twitter.com/lincsccelect
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
But if 8 people voted in the entire district surely that means they'd have to run the election again?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
8 students, not 8 people. And i don't think there's any min voter stuff.
British jobs for British workers. Thats the issue the left need to deal with before they stand a chance of getting anywhere again.
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