Griffin and BNP strategy

[JimPage]

My own experience tells me they are getting old and ever shrinking in terms of personnel, ideas, and motivation.

based on this result- and other recent ones- they are if anything tightening up their operation as to how to run an election campaign by way of canvassing and local leaflets (which i understand were about post office closures) a 35% vote in a ward they havent been near before is not a bad start. the writing should have been on the wall that this was going to happen way back in 2004 when the BNP polled 9.6% accross the borough in the Euro elections

 

[The Black Hand]

I was talking about the left in the area.

 

[The Black Hand]

Look here - opposition to the BNP for a midlands by election coming up;
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/10/384223.html

You may call these people old left, but this is probably an innacurate description. Sure - there will be old left there, but there are also those younger ones or people not yet aligned who may have helped out. There maybe some local anarchos involved too. It is an arrogant mistake to write off these people in advance.

 

[The Black Hand]

Look at this - from an area they are supposedly doing well in - no show;

18th October
Wigan MBC, Wigan Central

Con 1013 (48.2; +3.9), Lab 827 (39.3; +6.2), Community Action 262 (12.5; +5.6), [BNP (0.0; -6.3)], [LD (0.0; -9.5)].

Majority 186. Turnout 22.8%. Con hold. Last fought 2007.

 

[butchersapron]

That doesn't mean they got 0% - it means that they didn't stand. It's not a particularly big deal when taken in the context of focusing on their best chances. The same night they achieved the very impressive 35% in derbyshire, which is far more significant than deciding not to stand in a ward where they had previously only picked up 6% - and that we're even saying this is an indication of just how far they have come in the last decade.

http://www.urban75.net/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=6624678&postcount=986

 

[dash_two]

The real test for the BNP will be whether they're able to hold onto their gains and continue growing under a Conservative government. If they can, there is a good chance they will eventually attain the levels of support and local entrenchment enjoyed by European far right parties.

 

[JimPage]

Another near miss for the fascists from yesterday....

Waltham Abbey TC Honey Lane Ward 25th October
Con 299
BNP 281 (28.5%)
LD 274
Lab 131

May 2007 result- in same ward but for Epping Forest DC, Con 636,
Liberal 240, BNP 225 (20.4%).

 

[passthesalt]

Another near miss for the fascists from yesterday....

Waltham Abbey TC Honey Lane Ward 25th October
Con 299
BNP 281 (28.5%)
LD 274
Lab 131

May 2007 result- in same ward but for Epping Forest DC, Con 636,
Liberal 240, BNP 225 (20.4%).

I checked & got some percentage figures that might be helpful.

Con 299 (30.4%, -27.4%)

BNP 281 (28.5%, +8.1%)

LD 274 (27.8%, +6.0%)

Lab 131 (13.3%, +13.3%)

So the supposed "resurgent" Tory party (following their (Tory) Conference) doesn't seem to have affected their (the fash) vote here.

There was an anti fash campaign in the ward from the "Epping Forest Together" organisation (Searchlight) which looks like it might have swung a few votes against them. But bloody close !

 

[durruti02]

Another near miss for the fascists from yesterday....

Waltham Abbey TC Honey Lane Ward 25th October
Con 299
BNP 281 (28.5%)
LD 274
Lab 131

May 2007 result- in same ward but for Epping Forest DC, Con 636,
Liberal 240, BNP 225 (20.4%).

more of a lower m/c area these 2 seats than the recent midlands ones .. they had a councilllor in near by broxbourne for a while .. i suspect if things go more tits up they could clear up in a lot of these m25 boroughs

the 10-15%s seem to be drifting up to 20-25%s

 

[The Black Hand]

more of a lower m/c area these 2 seats than the recent midlands ones .. they had a councilllor in near by broxbourne for a while .. i suspect if things go more tits up they could clear up in a lot of these m25 boroughs

the 10-15%s seem to be drifting up to 20-25%s

Not according to this result from the other day;

Sefton MBC, Manor

Con 922 (40.5; -7.6), LD John Gibson 769 (33.8; +13.4), Lab 419 (18.4; -13.1), BNP 94 (4.1; +4.1), UKIP 71 (3.1; +3.1).

Majority 153. Turnout 22.8%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.

The Tory vote drop was split by UKIP and the BNP with the Lab vote going Lib Dem.

 

[audiotech]

Griffin having difficulty putting his point accross in Michigan.

 

[durruti02]

Not according to this result from the other day;

Sefton MBC, Manor

Con 922 (40.5; -7.6), LD John Gibson 769 (33.8; +13.4), Lab 419 (18.4; -13.1), BNP 94 (4.1; +4.1), UKIP 71 (3.1; +3.1).

Majority 153. Turnout 22.8%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.

The Tory vote drop was split by UKIP and the BNP with the Lab vote going Lib Dem.

thats a better result .. but iwould not so simplistically equat changes in votes ... it is more complex than that .. you MAY be right but you may not be!

 

[The Black Hand]

Griffin having difficulty putting his point accross in Michigan.

Ha ha ha ha ha

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Meanwhile, back in Blighty, interesting articles by Griffin & Butler on electoral strategy in October Identity

1) Going to stand women & media friendly (eg war veteran) candidates at next General Election

2) main electoral focus is to be on GLA & Euros, both of which they have high hopes of

...Sorry to intrude, you're free to get back to cackling now children...

 

[passthesalt]

Meanwhile, back in Blighty, interesting articles by Griffin & Butler on electoral strategy in October Identity

1) Going to stand women & media friendly (eg war veteran) candidates at next General Election

2) main electoral focus is to be on GLA & Euros, both of which they have high hopes of

...Sorry to intrude, you're free to get back to cackling now children...

Point 1 is a hope dependent on them finding suitable selection / numbers of candidates. Not much evidence of that so far - still infighting to choose their slate for the top up section of the GLA I understand, let alone them identifying Euro Seats and getting non nutter candidates for them yet.

Point 2 has been obvious since the last GLA elections - even Searchlight has (repeatedly) carried this.

Most people accept that , with the demise of UKIP there appears to be a sizable section of London voters that seem to be "disillusioned" with the variety (or lack thereof) between the Lib/Con/Neu Lab versions of Toryism. The question is where do these punters go ? Abstain ? Fash ? or some Left alternative (an option that currently looks unlikely )

But, if we don't do something, then it's not at all unlikely that at least one fash will be on the GLA next May.

 

[The Black Hand]

Good news about the BNP being seen to AGAIN in Barnsley

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/12/386901.html

 

[soam]

Good news about the BNP being seen to AGAIN in Barnsley

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/12/386901.html

Good news indeed - so far the UAF opposition to the BNP appears to have been pretty inadequate. Have challenged them (BNP) a few times myself and had my photo taken as a result - hardly the actions of a legitimate political party!

It does appear to have rattled them - lots of discussion on the Barnsley nationalist site aboput setting up a security team etc - with a fair few contributions from Joe Owen.

Griffin was in town couple of weeks ago - it would seem that BNP are holding their meetings at The Fleets pub just outside the town centre

What is the situation on street sales in other parts of the UK - i cant imagine that there are many places where they would feel confident enough of support to sell openly on the streets?

 

[butchersapron]

What was Joe Owens saying? General gist sort of thing

 

[soam]

He seems to be urging BNP members to act in self defence, have a security team, and also to abandon street sales and concentrate on going door to door.

He repeats a lot of points he has posted on stormfront about how BNp should have martial arts trained teams in all areas to protect activists. and also that taking steriods doesn't make you hard!!

Wont post a link but check out the Barnsley nationalist site for the full debate..

Seems to be a split with some members favouring videoing opponents and reporting to police, others advocating street violence.

 

[butchersapron]

Cheers. Interesting. Esp as Owens was spitting bile towards the BNP (or at least the leadership) very recently. I'll check the full link later, but thanks for the precis.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Very interesting, too, that Chris Hill of Lancaster should be urging the collection of information useful to Special Branch on that thread. Now, how come that doesn't surprise me??

 

[soam]

Thought you may find this barnsley stuff of interest Larry - its a situation that is ongoing and maybe should be seen in the context of remarks from Paul harris on the Barnsley BNP site about how BNP should prepare for violence in future, goading UAF for lack of opposition etc..

 

[likesfish]

bwhahahaha bnp marital arts trained teams
had two wannabe arryan warriors try to join the ta worried the recruiting officer cause political extremists can't join was trying to find the paperwork but as the two members of the master race gave up on the 3 mile run.
not came in slow but trying.
actually sat down and gave up as it was too hard
no weapon training for them then

 

[durruti02]

Good news about the BNP being seen to AGAIN in Barnsley

http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/12/386901.html

so how will that affect their recruiting and votes?

 

[The Black Hand]

so how will that affect their recruiting and votes?

That is an interesting question, which can only be answered by careful analysis.

For example, if their vote goes down cos their activists haven't been out and about, then clearly it has had an effect.

If there is no change to their vote, then it could be argued that it helped to contribute to keeping their vote static.

IF the BNP are crying about it to the media and in their literature, it doesn't stop them getting out and about, and their is no other issue that comes forward in the election, AND their vote GOES UP, then it has had a negative effect.

Time will tell.

 

[durruti02]

That is an interesting question, which can only be answered by careful analysis.

For example, if their vote goes down cos their activists haven't been out and about, then clearly it has had an effect.

If there is no change to their vote, then it could be argued that it helped to contribute to keeping their vote static.

IF the BNP are crying about it to the media and in their literature, it doesn't stop them getting out and about, and their is no other issue that comes forward in the election, AND their vote GOES UP, then it has had a negative effect.

Time will tell.

so far the evidence in west yorks is that it has NO affect and maybe even increases the bnp vote

 

[The Black Hand]

so far the evidence in west yorks is that it has NO affect and maybe even increases the bnp vote

What evidence do you have for this?

 

[The Black Hand]

Here's another BNP extremist with personal problems and issues - this really can't help their vote at all;

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/6128634.stm

 

[butchersapron]

Well, since that story came out they've more than doubled their number of councillors and put in a series of very strong performances nationally. That sort of Searchlight 'expose them and they'll be destroyed' approah isn't working and hasn't been working for a long time. It can't deal with the social roots of the BNPs rise, what it can do though is disguise them or pretend that they're not important and not the driving factor behind the things we witnessed over the last few years.

 

[The Black Hand]

Well, since that story came out they've more than doubled their number of councillors and put in a series of very strong performances nationally. That sort of Searchlight 'expose them and they'll be destroyed' approah isn't working and hasn't been working for a long time. It can't deal with the social roots of the BNPs rise, what it can do though is disguise them or pretend that they're not important and not the driving factor behind the things we witnessed over the last few years.

Incidentally, before I disagree with you. Have you got your copy of Mayday yet? You should have by now. I haven't got the Dvd btw.

Doh!! New thinking new thinking.

I've seen this line of argument used sooooo many times before I am not sure that it is correct. It is used in a very woolly way, I would like to see proof of this position, and not speculation. Because that is all there is at the minute. It would have to be done far more scientifically for me to accept it so categorically.

There are far far more and other things which happen that affect the BNP vote for the issue mentioned to be seen to have the effect you claim for it. In short, there are far more variables involved which have not been isolated or otherwise contained to allow the claim of straightforward causal effect you identify, there are associational connections that is true, but that should not be enough for a thinking anarchist or Marxist.