Griffin and BNP strategy
- Thread starter durruti02
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The Black Hand
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durruti02 said:
I wasn't aiming my comment at you, you are a breath of fresh air as ever.
The Black Hand
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I've picked these poll results from a political site - though the figures appear accurate they do need to be checked.
Chester Central Ward by-election(Durham) Thursday 27th september
LAB 324
CON 88
LIB DEM 81
BNP 51 (9.3%)
Turnout 25%
Lloyds ward by-election(Corby), Northants County council Thursday 27th september
Labour 1092
Cons 375
Lib Dem 311
BNP 265 (12.9%)
30.7% turnout.
These results are neither poor nor good, just getting around. One thing that springs to mind from a quick look at figures in ONE poll (where they stood for the first time), is that they suggest that the BNP take 70% of their vote from labour, 25% from the Tories and 5% from Liberal. I am basing this in the drop in level of votes in a ward where no BNP stood previously.
BUT this still leaves a huge number of people voting labour, enough to win the seat indefinately. SO! The real question is WHERE are the next level of BNP voters going to come from? They may have picked off the 'easily led', but it is the NEXT level of voters which they will have to persuade which is a FAR HARDER task than this 'beginning' level of votes. That is apart from holding onto these 'easily led' votes....
I have just been on another political site which confirms these figures above. And the more interesting one here;
Sunderland MBC, Washington East
Con 1196 (49.9; +9.8), Lab 994 (41.5; +2.2), LD 206 (8.6; -5.6), [BNP (0.0; -6.3)].
Majority 202. Turnout 27.6%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.
There were 9 polls on Thursday 27th september and the BNP stood in 2. The Sunderland poll, one area where they pride themselves on standing a full slate, is interesting cos it suggests the beginning of the end for the BNP in Sunderland. The BNP dropped out and the Tory hoovered up their votes, enough to win the seat.
Chester Central Ward by-election(Durham) Thursday 27th september
LAB 324
CON 88
LIB DEM 81
BNP 51 (9.3%)
Turnout 25%
Lloyds ward by-election(Corby), Northants County council Thursday 27th september
Labour 1092
Cons 375
Lib Dem 311
BNP 265 (12.9%)
30.7% turnout.
These results are neither poor nor good, just getting around. One thing that springs to mind from a quick look at figures in ONE poll (where they stood for the first time), is that they suggest that the BNP take 70% of their vote from labour, 25% from the Tories and 5% from Liberal. I am basing this in the drop in level of votes in a ward where no BNP stood previously.
BUT this still leaves a huge number of people voting labour, enough to win the seat indefinately. SO! The real question is WHERE are the next level of BNP voters going to come from? They may have picked off the 'easily led', but it is the NEXT level of voters which they will have to persuade which is a FAR HARDER task than this 'beginning' level of votes. That is apart from holding onto these 'easily led' votes....
I have just been on another political site which confirms these figures above. And the more interesting one here;
Sunderland MBC, Washington East
Con 1196 (49.9; +9.8), Lab 994 (41.5; +2.2), LD 206 (8.6; -5.6), [BNP (0.0; -6.3)].
Majority 202. Turnout 27.6%. Con gain from Lab. Last fought 2007.
There were 9 polls on Thursday 27th september and the BNP stood in 2. The Sunderland poll, one area where they pride themselves on standing a full slate, is interesting cos it suggests the beginning of the end for the BNP in Sunderland. The BNP dropped out and the Tory hoovered up their votes, enough to win the seat.
The Black Hand
Unclean
Larry O'Hara said:
Larry oh Larry - look here for the new front cover of the mag
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/09/382291.html?c=on#c181684
Attica said:
where i think they ar epicking up most of theri votes anyway- disillusioned ex labour voters who will not vote for any of the 3 main parties. whiel the drop in mainstream partyt votes may mean some are coming to the BNP- and more from labour- its the 40% who dont vote where their pickings will continue to come from
agree not classic resutls for them, but they wont be too displeased with a 12% first tiem vote in corby
by election in leicestershire tomorrow may show a better vote for them
The Black Hand
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JimPage said:
I read on a fash site that their Corby branch was depressed about the result . GOOD. Let's keep 'em depressed, and preferably more black. And blue.
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
So looking at those voting numbers...they're all on really low turnouts to start with, but are BNP voters more likely to turn out and vote than Lab/Con etc? I'm thinking along the lines that extremists of any kind are more motivated - think about the types who call into radio phone ins, or fill the BBC website up with green ink rantings...or indeed, 'activists' generally...
What I'm getting at is are would the number of votes for the BNP increase with higher turnouts, or are they already gettin the max number of votes they're likely to ever get?
What I'm getting at is are would the number of votes for the BNP increase with higher turnouts, or are they already gettin the max number of votes they're likely to ever get?
The Black Hand
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kyser_soze said:
Good question - that I do not know the answer to at present.
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The BNP have had some success with those that don't usually vote at all and younger men. There is a protest vote too of course, but that will be affected now with Blair gone.
Recent statements from some tories may have an affect too on the BNP vote.
It should be noted that a recent report by the Rowntree Trust had three quarters of those surveyed stating they would never vote for the BNP.
If a general election is announced next week the BNP is not prepared for it, as it's leadership appear to be in crisis at this point.
Recent statements from some tories may have an affect too on the BNP vote.
It should be noted that a recent report by the Rowntree Trust had three quarters of those surveyed stating they would never vote for the BNP.
If a general election is announced next week the BNP is not prepared for it, as it's leadership appear to be in crisis at this point.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Why - you always think that they're in crisis anyway!
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The Joseph Rowntree report on 'who votes BNP' found that high turnouts tend to help them.Crispy said:
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butchersapron said:
Read my mind - not! I've always thought they had a contempt for the mind meself.
This crisis seems a bit more intense somehow?
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
butchersapron said:
Unfortunatey there's not substitute for actual voting behaviour - surveys are all well and good, but the smaller the likely voting population, the harder it is to make any kind of prediction about this - altho I'd be interested to see the report, is it publicly available?
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
MC5 said:
I've always thought they had a contempt for the mind meself.
This crisis seems a bit more intense somehow?
For gods sake man do you get your info anywhere else than the searchlight sourced luaf? This lot have been saying that the BNP are in crisis for the last 10 years. In that time they've gone from 1 seat ever to over 50 and picked up a million votes a few years back. These people saying they are in crisis means precisely nothing. It's just a deliberately chosen tactic. And for anyone whose been keeping their eye on the ball for a while, these sort of carry-ons are par for the course in the far right.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
kyser_soze
Hawking's Angry Eyebrow
Ta
Attica said:
i think you are taking that from one post on stormfront. they dont have a branch in in corby- and the fascists havnet been organised there since 1980 when an NF march in town got a serious hammering. they arent always stadsing for election to win- but rather than in an effort to get things together in town- to motivate local activists to get organised with a base of 12% of the vote ( in a large county council ward) its hardly a bad start for them
MC5 said:
1. the effect of the recent tory staements will simply legitimise what they say
2. the bnp is not in crisis. you seem to mistake what is put out by lancaster uaf for intelligence, and not propoganda aimed to cause disillusionment amoung the fash - and to try to shore up antifascist confidence with bullshit anlaysis. I also think they are being fed deliberately duff intelligence
Lancaster UAF are open searchlight collaburators.
BNP have already announced hey will fight more seats than they did in 2005 (118) whenever the election is
MC5 said:
I've always thought they had a contempt for the mind meself.
This crisis seems a bit more intense somehow?
woudl this be the crisis about Sadie Graham resigning which the BNP have laughed off today on their website as simply wrong
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JimPage said:
The tories will be hoping to shore up some support with their recent statements.
Not in crisis? My initial point was that the BNP appears to be in crisis? Are they not?
I've been following these events for decades Jim and the point about "collaburators" [sic] ?
is just, well daft.The Black Hand
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kyser_soze said:
Here's an hypothesis for you; The established parties CORE vote is always going to be larger than the BNPs, simply because of the benefit of tradition. Therefore low polls should assist the big parties, Labour in the North, Tories in the South (in their heartlands). The floating voter areas, where results are always harder to predict, would mean that low polls would assist the core voters and the protest voters (so there are 2 potential beneficiaries).
It would be down to the exact cultural patterns of an area that decides which way it goes. Thus those areas with people who has a more in your face attitude I would expect may have a higher protest vote, and those which has a more laid back approach (typically southern/rural/suburban) the liberals. However, again, that is the difficulty with theory, the rural/suburban protest vote may go towards the protest vote if it is a MORE nationalistic area than others. There are a lot of variables (things that can affect the hypothesis) and it would take further research to establish the real world patterns.
The Black Hand
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JimPage said:
I've been drinking in Shepshed some years ago - with an ex DAM member
I forgot that place existed. It's a small town small 'c' conservative rural area where very little happens, and it has not had any active politics beyond the established parties as far as I know. So it is not the far left which has created this level of vote, it looks like a fairly unpoliticised protest vote to me.Attica said:I've been drinking in Shepshed some years ago - with an ex DAM member
shepshed was industrial .. clothing and coal mines .. but it is now a dormitory town for leicster ..
does that make the bnp vote middle class? or is it the w/c rump who have voted that way .. i do not know and nor do you attica!
we would need a proper breakdown ..
in terms of the far left influence i suspect even there, people would have a perception of the far left as being the supportters of 'immmigrants and muslims' not of 'them' ..
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