GE19:The Sir John Curtis Urban Pollster: Seat Predictions

[marty21]

Con 290
Lab 260
Lib 20
SNP 49
Plaid 4
Green 1

 

[Idris2002]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say - Labour 305, rest of the non-Tories enough to cobble something together with.

I base this on no more than the unusually shifty behaviour of top Tories during the campaign, who just didn't look as confident as winners ought to. . .

 

[danny la rouge]

Tory - 320
Labour - 260
SNP - 50
Lib Dem - 5
DUP - 5
Others - 5

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Lib Dem - 5

The Cinque Cunts.

or Pentacunts

 

[Knotted]

that's more than 650!

I think I've got the number of NI constituencies wrong as well. Edited post. Cheers.

 

[killer b]

Lib Dem - 5

babe.

 

[danny la rouge]

babe.

Come on! We can do it!

 

[Flavour]

if tory+yellow total was less than 325 =

 

[Knotted]

My reasons to be pessimistic -
The polls are more likely to be underestimating the Tory lead not overestimating it - the polls have pretty much sorted out their methodological experimentation from last time but are likely to be subject to the usual anti-Tory sampling bias.
The Tory's (+ Lib Dems) have succeeded in making this election about Brexit which has killed the Labour vote especially for (former) Labour leavers.
Even when Labour are riding high in the polls, their vote is extremely volatile, people don't vote Labour out of class solidarity any more and given that they are vulnerable on the Brexit/leaver front and the number of Tory/Labour marginals, this factor could be devastating.

 

[chilango]

My reasons to be pessimistic -
The polls are more likely to be underestimating the Tory lead not overestimating it - the polls have pretty much sorted out their methodological experimentation from last time but are likely to be subject to the usual anti-Tory sampling bias.
The Tory's (+ Lib Dems) have succeeded in making this election about Brexit which has killed the Labour vote especially for (former) Labour leavers.
Even when Labour are riding high in the polls, their vote is extremely volatile, people don't vote Labour out of class solidarity any more, given that they are vulnerable on the Brexit/leaver front and the number of Tory/Labour marginals, this factor could be devastating.

Shhhhh.

 

[Pickman's model]

My reasons to be pessimistic -
The polls are more likely to be underestimating the Tory lead not overestimating it - the polls have pretty much sorted out their methodological experimentation from last time but are likely to be subject to the usual anti-Tory sampling bias.
The Tory's (+ Lib Dems) have succeeded in making this election about Brexit which has killed the Labour vote especially for (former) Labour leavers.
Even when Labour are riding high in the polls, their vote is extremely volatile, people don't vote Labour out of class solidarity any more and given that they are vulnerable on the Brexit/leaver front and the number of Tory/Labour marginals, this factor could be devastating.

we'll see in the next 18 hours if you're right to be something of a cassandra or not

 

[Knotted]

Yeah sorry. I'm just guessing of course. Get the vote out, there is still everything to play for.

 

[steeplejack]

Conservative 317
Labour 262
SNP 48
PC 5
Green 1
Liberals 11
DUP 6

 

[killer b]

the polls have pretty much sorted out their methodological experimentation from last time

how do you know this?

 

[belboid]

how do you know this?

my guess is he means they have worked out how they should have weighted their polls last tie to get the right result. Methodology is always gonna be one actual election result behind, it's all guesswork. Educated guesswork, but still...

 

[Knotted]

how do you know this?

By looking at their methodology (admittedly I've only scanned a few of them), but it's not something you have to guess at. They have to be transparent. 2015-17 was a very peculiar in terms of polling methodology and they all burnt their fingers on it (except for the few who didn't go in for it).

I could be missing something of course. But I can't see any new factors that might offset anything to any serious degree. My working assumption is that the polls are going to be off in a similar way as they were in 2015. That's my baseline before you add in various plus or minus uncertainties regarding methodology or random variance.

That the MRP's tell a somewhat different story means I might be wrong though. But even then we're likely to see a Tory majority.

 

[Dogsauce]

Tories 348
Labour 240
Lib Dem 20
SNP 47
Green 1
Brexit nil
NI whatever.

 

[ruffneck23]

lab 326

dont care bout the rest

 

[planetgeli]

Con 351
Lab 210
LD 19
SNP 41

 

[SpookyFrank]

I base this on no more than the unusually shifty behaviour of top Tories during the campaign, who just didn't look as confident as winners ought to.

This could simply be a result of their being a bunch of utter poltroons.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Grimsby to turn blue for the first time in forever, slim Tory win

Cleethorpes remains Tory, maybe with a slight increase

 

[8ball]

Con 285
Lab 285
Lib Dem 15
SNP 45
Brexit 2

Please be right.

 

[8ball]

Hence "full on optimism."

Deep down, I'm all...

Stiff upper lip, man!

But yeah.

 

[8ball]

Tell you what though, a labour minority relying on the fucking libdems to get them over the line in confidence & supply or even worse a coalition is a grim thought though isn't it, imagine

I’d suck it up on condition that Swinson loses her seat.

 

[Idris2002]

This could simply be a result of their being a bunch of utter poltroons.

Yes, but they're usually arrogant with it. There were occasional glimpses of them being rattled this time.

 

[Poot]

Con 306
Lab 261
Lib Dem 28
SNP 45

 

[Hollis]

On a brighter note, I will be issuing a preliminary Forecast Pollster winner within the next hour..

 

[Hollis]

Data is being checked now.

 

[Hollis]

FWIW... we have... provisional results..

Knotted 946
planetgeli 944
Dogsauce 916
kabbes 915
Hollis 897
Flavour 871
Leafster 871
danny la rouge 870
steeplejack 869
killer b 867
littlebabyjesus 865
belboid 858
Chilango 846
Proper Tidy 846
Poot 843
Marty21 840
Weepiper 837
editor 833
LiamO 811

 

[Knotted]

Well fuck me. Seriously fuck me.