GE19:The Sir John Curtis Urban Pollster: Seat Predictions

[Hollis]

Who is Urban's equal to Sir John Curtis?

Predict the number of seats for each of the 4 main parties: Con, Lab, Lib, SNP.

You start with 1000 points.

You lose a point for each prediction above or below seats won.

Person with highest points wins.

Entries close 9.59pm or before any fancy exit polls..

3 hints

Total no. of seats: 650

Current numbers:
Con 298
Lab 243
LibDem 21
SNP 35

Your total will be less than number of seats due to NI, independents, Wales etc.

Winner and roll of honour announced, err, Friday evening.

 

[Idris2002]

I think we're in for a surprise result:

Spoiler

 

[Hollis]

To get the ball rolling:

Con 318
Lab 225
LibDem 17
SNP 40

 

[andysays]

I think you mean John Curtice, BTW

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Is there any poll predicting a single Brexit Party seat anywhere?

 

[killer b]

Is there any poll predicting a single Brexit Party seat anywhere?

Barnsley is the only place I heard might be dicey

 

[chilango]

Con 296
Lab 253
LibDem 12
SNP 36

 

[killer b]

(although the Yougov MRP has them 9 points out)

 

[Flavour]

Con 310
Lab 250
Lib Dem 15
SNP 45
Plaid 4
Green 1
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 10

 

[killer b]

LABOUR 650

 

[weepiper]

Con 299
Lab 272
Lib Dem 15
SNP 44
Brexit 3
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 9

 

[LiamO]

Con 285
Lab 285
Lib Dem 15
SNP 45
Brexit 2

 

[kabbes]

Con 339
Lab 231
Lib 15
SNP 41
Plaid 4
Green 1

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Con 311
Lab 257
LibDem 15
SNP 45
Green 1
Plaid 4
DUP 6
Sinn Fein 9
SDLP 1
Alliance 1

And with that, the only route into power for the Tories would be an agreement with the LibDems. I think we can guess what would happen next...

 

[Proper Tidy]

Con 296
Lab 253
LibDem 12
SNP 36

Oof

 

[kabbes]

So I’m the only one so far predicting a Tory majority?

 

[belboid]

So I’m the only one so far predicting a Tory majority?

its early. We're optimists!

 

[Proper Tidy]

Tell you what though, a labour minority relying on the fucking libdems to get them over the line in confidence & supply or even worse a coalition is a grim thought though isn't it, imagine

 

[littlebabyjesus]

So I’m the only one so far predicting a Tory majority?

I'm an optimistic pessimist. Tories biggest party but no majority is the best I think we can realistically hope for, and I'm holding on to that hope.

 

[Knotted]

Hope I'm wrong but realistically:

Con: 360
Lab: 210
LibDem: 21
SNP: 36
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
DUP: 9
SF: 8
SDLP: 1

 

[killer b]

These are my actual prediction fwiw - towards the lower end of the Yougov MRP ranges

Con 313
Lab 251
SNP 43
LDEM 19
PC 4
GRN 1
BREX 0

 

[belboid]

Con 312
Lab - 258
LibDem - 17
SNP - 40
PC - 5
Green - 1
Brexit - 0

 

[Flavour]

Hope I'm wrong but realistically:

Con: 360
Lab: 210
LibDem: 23
SNP: 37
Plaid: 4
Green: 1
DUP: 8
SF: 8
SDLP: 1

that's more than 650!

 

[chilango]

Oof

I think hope there'll be quite a few shock Labour gains in the South East and the "Red Wall" will hold, largely because push come to shove former Labour voters will stay at home as protest rather than go out in the rain to vote Tory. I'm also hopeful that quite a lot of the "couldn't possibly vote for Corbyn" m/c types will be "too busy" to actually traipse down to the polling station in the rain/traffic to vote in an election that will have little material impact on their lives.

So I'm sticking with my bold prediction*.

Con 296
Lab 253
LibDem 12
SNP 36

*which will be right this time unlike every other time where I was wrong

 

[Leafster]

Con 319
Lab 243
LibDem 23
SNP 37

 

[editor]

I'm going full on optimism

Con 298
Lab 272
LDEM 13
SNP 39

 

[kabbes]

I'm going full on optimism

Con 298
Lab 272
LDEM 13
SNP 39

 

[Flavour]

tories under 300 would be a massive massive victory. can't see it happening cos i think they'll gain a few seats in scotland and wales

 

[Idris2002]

I think hope there'll be quite a few shock Labour gains in the South East and the "Red Wall" will hold, largely because push come to shove former Labour voters will stay at home as protest rather than go out in the rain to vote Tory. I'm also hopeful that quite a lot of the "couldn't possibly vote for Corbyn" m/c types will be "too busy" to actually traipse down to the polling station in the rain/traffic to vote in an election that will have little material impact on their lives.

So I'm sticking with my bold prediction*.

Con 296
Lab 253
LibDem 12
SNP 36

*which will be right this time unlike every other time where I was wrong

Also. Have you considered how cool "red wall" is?

"Aye, 'tis forty winters since I took up me watch on the Red Wall, lad".

 

[editor]

tories under 300 would be a massive massive victory. can't see it happening cos i think they'll gain a few seats in scotland and wales

Hence "full on optimism."

Deep down, I'm all...