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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

frogwoman said:
what do they mean by '70% more infectious'? does this mean that you need less of the virus to become infected? or that it can last longer?
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I think it's limited to meaning that the virus is better at moving between hosts... LDC posted while I'm writing this... So effectively what it means is that it seems to push the r number up. It doesn't say anything about the mechanism by which this happens, just that it is happening.
 
bimble said:
Maybe just informing other countries earlier that there might possibly - but not definitely - be a big problem here would have allowed people to not get stranded at airports overnight with nowhere to stay.
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The WHO spokesperson has said that they have been informed every step of the way on this, how many times do I have to keep pointing this out?
 
Pickman's model said:
i don't see why, when as i understand it the c19 vaccine affects how the virus attaches itself to cells in the body and not to the virus as a whole as a lot of other vaccines do
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They will always try to look carefully and monitor mutations in the area responsible for how the virus binds to human cells, because those sorts of mutations are a thing that has the potential to thwart vaccines that target that part of the virus.

I'm still trying to get to grips with the nuggets of science involving the new strain. Convalescent plasma has come up several times - I need more time to check my facts but its possible that they've seen this new variant of the virus thriving inside patients who have received other peoples convalescent plasma. This needs further research if they've seen it because it could imply this new strain has immune escape potential. And I suppose in theory they also need to check to make sure that convalescent plasma trials havent created selection pressure thats helped this new variant emerge in the first place. if that was the case then we'd expect it would also happen elsewhere, naturally, with people who have already been infected in the past, because many of the factors involved would be the same as when transferring convalescent plasma to someone else. But there could be key differences, including timing and amount of antibodies in the body relative to infection, other health differences in the person, and things like the possibility of hospital institutional outbreak if a patient with compromised immunity or trial participant ended up shedding a lot of this strain, etc. This is mostly speculation on my part at this stage, areas where I want to improve my own knowledge and see if experts are looking in those directions and publish anything relevant.
 
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killer b said:
There's nothing in the current trajectory that makes me think international travel in or out of the UK will be very easy at all for at least a month. My brother's much-hated mother in law is supposed to be arriving from Poland for christmas tomorrow - his look of horror when I suggested her two-week stay may be extended substantially was heart-rending: for his sake, I'm hoping Poland to UK flights are cancelled before she sets off...
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It's funny how he just got a notification to self-isolate isn't it? :hmm:
 
miss direct said:
Those poor people who can't leave. Not the ones going on holiday, but the ones who don't have anywhere to go. Hostels are obviously a bad idea (and are they even allowed to be open in tier 4?) Not allowed to leave tier 4 - hence higher rent/hotel/air bnb prices. Who has the money to just unexpectedly stay on in and around London, over Christmas?
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I'm just not sure who these people are? People that don't live here who've been visiting here and who are trying to return home? Or people from other countries that live here going home to see people over Xmas? I've not seen countries banning entry to their own citizens? Most of the bans to UK citizens entering other countries haven't come into operation yet either afaik.

People have repeatedly been told for months that traveling, especially abroad, is subject to short notice changes and cancelling. TBH I have limited sympathy for people traveling abroad atm (unless it's for emergencies/caring/etc.), it's never been government guidance to book a flight and go somewhere even if some people have interpreted it as an OK thing to do.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
I'm just not sure who these people are? People that don't live here who've been visiting here and who are trying to return home? Or people from other countries that live here going home to see people over Xmas? I've not seen countries banning entry to their own citizens? Most of the bans to UK citizens entering other countries haven't come into operation yet either afaik.

People have repeatedly been told for months that traveling, especially abroad, is subject to short notice changes and cancelling. TBH I have limited sympathy for people traveling abroad atm (unless it's for emergencies/caring/etc.), it's never been government guidance to book a flight and go somewhere even if some people have interpreted it as an OK thing to do.
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People finishing contracts who have followed government guidance until it suddenly changed. Like people working in the NHS or essential services who were looking forward to getting back to their families/country for Christmas. Students. Teachers. I'm not sure why you need this list explained to you.
 
elbows said:
I'm still trying to get to grips with the nuggets of science involving the new strain. Convalescent plasma has come up several times - I need more time to check my facts but its possible that they've seen this new variant of the virus thriving inside patients who have received other peoples convalescent plasma. This needs further research if they've seen it because it could imply this new strain has immune escape potential. And I suppose in theory they also need to check to make sure that convalescent plasma trials havent created selection pressure thats helped this new variant emerge in the first place.
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Some of these mutations (deletions) have been observed in immunosuppressed patients with chronic episodes of COVID who were being treated for extended periods with convalescent plasma.
 
bimble said:
If they’re communicating so well for such a long time I’m extra surprised that only one single case of our British variant has been found, in two other countries. With a grand total of 11 cases outside these islands. Sounds like not a lot of tests have been done to look for it?
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NERVTAG say this bimble

'Few cases of this variant have been reported internationally but one confirmed export from the UK to Australia has been reported. It was noted that other countries have lower sequencing capability than the UK.'
 
One of the many things that's grinding my gears about the general reportage around all this. The focus on Easter as some sort of milestone. I wish these people saying oh a few months this, the vaccine will rescue us... Shut the fuck up.

No one has AFAIK yet published a calculation on how much of the populas need to be vaccinated to make a positive practicle difference. At 1M vaccinations a week and 2 shots required, it would take 2 years to vaccinate everyone. Even if a quarter way through you didn't have to go round again due to immunity. wearing off.

Probably reads as a pesamistic, uninformed view. I know peple are trying to be positive. I just don't respond well to being treated like a child, being promised things that are not within the gift of the promiser.
 
xenon said:
One of the many things that's grinding my gears about the general reportage around all this. The focus on Easter as some sort of milestone. I wish these people saying oh a few months this, the vaccine will rescue us... Shut the fuck up.

No one has AFAIK yet published a calculation on how much of the populas need to be vaccinated to make a positive practicle difference. At 1M vaccinations a week and 2 shots required, it would take 2 years to vaccinate everyone. Even if a quarter way through you didn't have to go round again due to immunity. wearing off.

Probably reads as a pesamistic, uninformed view. I know peple are trying to be positive. I just don't respond well to being treated like a child, being promised things that are not within the gift of the promiser.
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1 million a week is the opposite of pessimistic I'd say. Half of that, consistently over a period of months, would be a huge achievement IMO.
 
miss direct said:
Those poor people who can't leave. Not the ones going on holiday, but the ones who don't have anywhere to go. Hostels are obviously a bad idea (and are they even allowed to be open in tier 4?) Not allowed to leave tier 4 - hence higher rent/hotel/air bnb prices. Who has the money to just unexpectedly stay on in and around London, over Christmas?
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trains will continue running during lockdown. They never stopped this year. People will always be able to get home.
 
2hats said:
Some of these mutations (deletions) have been observed in immunosuppressed patients with chronic episodes of COVID who were being treated for extended periods with convalescent plasma.
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Cheers. I hadnt seen the paper, but I had just stumbled upon someone discussing a graph from it in the very long video that was recently posted on the mutation thread.

I can certainly see where there are a number of different reasons for them to be concerned about this collection of mutations.
 
killer b said:
That is above and beyond the call of duty.
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Thank you I cheated though.
Scooted to the bit with the WHO spokesperson, who does say that they were alerted to the existence of this variant some weeks ago, but understandably didn't particularly focus on this over other variants that are happening all over.
She then says about how it des not seem to cause more severe illness ' from the preliminary information they have shared with us.. ' I suppose it means, the red flags had to come from here, where the mutation started and spread, and it just took quite a while before they were sure about hoisting it, the red flag.
 
SpookyFrank said:
The difference between pre-booked and walk-up train ticket prices is often ruinous though.
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I never book but during lockdown prebooking should be piss easy as very few people will be travelling.

During the first lockdown there were only 5-6 people on the Euston to Glasgow train. We literally had two carriages each!
 
SpookyFrank said:
1 million a week is the opposite of pessimistic I'd say. Half of that, consistently over a period of months, would be a huge achievement IMO.
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Well yeah. And that relies on consistent supply, effectiveness of vaccine holding up, staff and facilities able to operate at such high output.

I do think we'll get out of this, more vaccines, better understanding and treatment for the virus. I just hate the flannel and morkish, just hang on for a few more months patronising fact free shite that abounds
 
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