Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[strung out]

The footy times have been rearranged

They should close the pubs at 9.45 instead then.

 

[Cid]

The footy times have been rearranged

So it seems. Genius.

 

[StoneRoad]

Closing pubs at 22:00 will be like closing at 22:30 or 23:00 used to be. The problems will all just happen however much earlier.

 

[Cid]

They should close the pubs at 9.45 instead then.

I’m guessing that was never the point.

 

[Johnny Doe]

The footy times have been rearranged

Didn't know that!

 

[Johnny Doe]

So it seems. Genius.

Though still, moving 8.15 games to 8pm, still means getting kicked out at 2 all on 90 mins with injury time to go?

 

[two sheds]

only if you've got more than 15 minutes of injury time, and Nobby Stiles doesn't play any more.

 

[Johnny Doe]

only if you've got more than 15 minutes of injury time, and Nobby Stiles doesn't play any more.

Yeah, my bad. 45 per half plus 15 mins half time equals 1 hour 45 mins not 2 hours, doh!

 

[LDC]

Closing pubs at 22:00 will be like closing at 22:30 or 23:00 used to be. The problems will all just happen however much earlier.

No, it's not that simple. Some of that will happen, but it will also slightly alter how people go out as it's happening in the context of the pandemic. Some people won't bother to go out, some will go earlier, some will do the same and not get as drunk and so will behave better, etc. It's also going to happen along side all the other things like groups of 6, social distancing, masks, more table service, limited numbers, etc. I don't think it's enough, but I think it will make some difference.

 

[2hats]

Everyone loved John Edmunds now he's critical of the government... I remember the olden days when he was out on the media rounds in March, defending herd immunity as a policy.

You remember wrong (though it is understandable since it's often hard to see beyond the soundbites and screaming headlines, taken out of context whilst rarely listening to the whole discussion).

 

[TopCat]

The whole eat out to help out seems insane now.

 

[2hats]

The whole eat out to help out the virus seems insane now.

FTFY

 

[killer b]

You remember wrong (though it is understandable since it's often hard to see beyond the soundbites and screaming headlines, taken out of context whilst rarely listening to the whole discussion).

fair enough!

 

[killer b]

It’s not that at all... We’re talking about possible over reliance on a specific and limited set of rules, applied in a very different situation from early lockdown. I’m not saying people won’t do it, I’m saying that relying entirely on them doing it to a sufficient standard is a huge risk... and also reliant on the assumptions made in setting out that rule being correct.

I doubt even the government think this is going to be enough tbh. Certainly no-one here is claiming it will be.

 

[TopCat]

Matt Wankcock may ban students from going home for Christmas.

Hancock refuses to rule out Christmas student lockdown

Matt Hancock refuses to rule out stopping students returning home, to limit spread of coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Somebody who understands in far more detail than I, could someone tell me why this wouldn't work?

Extend each school half term by another week. So roughly every 12 or 13 weeks or so, when schools would be shut and a large number of people would have been making childcare arrangements anyway; with plenty of advance preparation time, and at a known time to allow for scheduling purposes (for things like non-urgent medical procedures). Shut down, hard. Everyone bunker down for 2 weeks; minimal essential shopping trips only, 1 hour daily exercise again. 2 weeks at a time, months apart.

I've seen a lot of talk around politicians not wanting to use the word "lockdown" again, instead calling it a "circuit-breaker". In that case, do something more than fucking pubs shutting an hour early that actually breaks the circuit - starve the virus of hosts, then the time in between "circuit-breakers" could be managed from a low starting point for transmission with basic restrictions only.

 

[LDC]

Somebody who understands in far more detail than I, could someone tell me why this wouldn't work?

Extend each school half term by another week. So roughly every 12 or 13 weeks or so, when schools would be shut and a large number of people would have been making childcare arrangements anyway; with plenty of advance preparation time, and at a known time to allow for scheduling purposes (for things like non-urgent medical procedures). Shut down, hard. Everyone bunker down for 2 weeks; minimal essential shopping trips only, 1 hour daily exercise again. 2 weeks at a time, months apart.

I've seen a lot of talk around politicians not wanting to use the word "lockdown" again, instead calling it a "circuit-breaker". In that case, do something more than fucking pubs shutting an hour early that actually breaks the circuit - starve the virus of hosts, then the time in between "circuit-breakers" could be managed from a low starting point for transmission with basic restrictions only.

Define work though. And whatever we do now as a short term set of measures also needs to work as part of an overall strategy, and there are a few options for that. And the government aren't agreed on which one to go with, there's elements of government (not to mention industry and business 'leaders') that would happily just go back to no lockdown and no (or very few) restrictions, and then let the virus work its way through the rest of the population. It's only a small minority up for that, but they have a loud voice. And what we have now is some half arsed compromise with them and fears about the economy balanced against what would save the most people dying from the virus.

 

[Wilf]

Just to be clear: I'm not saying the government are 'following behavioural science' only that's it's been criticised previously for doing this too much. And I'm not saying that closing the pubs early will solve the problem - just saying that the idea it'll do nothing - when it will clearly both reduce the opportunities for human contact and dampen demand for pubs in general - is nonsense. It won't be enough. But it won't be nothing. That's all.

I agree entirely with your line about social psychology, neo-liberalism and their unwillingness to contemplate other more critical areas of the social sciences. But that in turn also has consequences when it comes to things like pub closures, where I'd go with negligible rather than no impact. They can change closing time, but their ability to affect behaviour in real places and communities is limited (and where transmission is linked to pubs it is almost certainly down to not following social distancing indoors, rather than opening times). The Tories don't have deep roots in communities (thank fuck) and we don't have the structures and social institutions any more that would have been able to influence behaviour at a local level. Should add hastily that's not some misty eyed nostalgia for a time when people respected the police and the vicar, but it is a consequence of the shift to consumerism and individualism.

 

[Roadkill]

I've just registered for the ONS/University of Oxford covid survey. Given that it's a free weekly test for a month and then monthly tests thereafter it feels like the sensible thing to do, although I do have some data privacy concerns about it and am not really looking forward to the swab - although I suppose it can't be worse than having one shoved up your penis, and I had that enough times in my younger and more promiscuous days.

However, when I phoned up I was put through to possibly the dopiest bloke I've ever spoken to. It took him five attempts to get my address right. Oh well, at least I am now registered and awaiting a call to arrange the first test.

 

[Wilf]

Shorter version: I don't think there's no such thing as society and lots of people have demonstrated that with social solidarity throughout the pandemic. But we've got a government who don't think there's anything beyond consumers and institutions to be marketised and privatised. And that's not a great state of affairs when it comes to creating a social response to a virus.

 

[elbows]

And the problem with measures that last 2 weeks is that doesnt really allow enough time to see how much of an effect they had.

The first tentative signs in the data could just start to be there after 2 weeks. But even in early April when the numbers were very large and the doubling time very short, the peak was probably only visible just about 2 weeks after 'lockdown' because actually the massive behavioural shift happened a week before lockdown, so it was really more like 3 weeks.

 

[killer b]

where transmission is linked to pubs it is almost certainly down to not following social distancing indoors, rather than opening times

Absolutely, but closing early, for the most drunk couple of hours, reduces the opportunities to not follow social distancing significantly

 

[Wilf]

Absolutely, but closing early, for the most drunk couple of hours, reduces the opportunities to not follow social distancing significantly

https://media.overstockart.com/optimized/cache/data/product_images/EH2136-1000x1000.jpg

 

[two sheds]

https://media.overstockart.com/optimized/cache/data/product_images/EH2136-1000x1000.jpg

should those two be sitting that close?

 

[Badgers]

Just listening.
Not much discussion of self employed people

 

[Wilf]

should those two be sitting that close?

Bubble.

 

[Thora]

Somebody who understands in far more detail than I, could someone tell me why this wouldn't work?

Extend each school half term by another week. So roughly every 12 or 13 weeks or so, when schools would be shut and a large number of people would have been making childcare arrangements anyway; with plenty of advance preparation time, and at a known time to allow for scheduling purposes (for things like non-urgent medical procedures). Shut down, hard. Everyone bunker down for 2 weeks; minimal essential shopping trips only, 1 hour daily exercise again. 2 weeks at a time, months apart.

I've seen a lot of talk around politicians not wanting to use the word "lockdown" again, instead calling it a "circuit-breaker". In that case, do something more than fucking pubs shutting an hour early that actually breaks the circuit - starve the virus of hosts, then the time in between "circuit-breakers" could be managed from a low starting point for transmission with basic restrictions only.

Also - you say people will have made childcare arrangements, would the lockdown still allow for holiday clubs, sports camps and grandparent care to take place?

 

[TopCat]

Lot to take in.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just listening.
Not much discussion of self employed people

Looks a bit shit TBH.

 

[elbows]

Lots to pick apart here:

10,000 more deaths than usual occurred in UK homes since June

Excess deaths in private homes prompts fears people are avoiding hospitals due to Covid

www.theguardian.com

Beyond the main reasons they state, there is also this:

Ceely also pointed to the possibility that deaths at home include some which occurred due to undiagnosed Covid-19 “or that the conditions people are dying of other than Covid-19 have potentially worsened due to the person previously having Covid-19”.

He added that there has been some evidence elsewhere that coronavirus can have longer-term effects on the cardiovascular system, with other countries observing an increase in non-Covid deaths from heart-related conditions in areas where C deaths from the virus have occurred.