Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

looks like they stopped counting at 5000 a day.
View attachment 231512

Combination of running out of testing capacity and more than one element of the epidemic wave actually genuinely peaking at that time, and hospital demand being somewhat suppressed, and lack of care home testing etc.

In the first couple of weeks of April the number of tests processed per day was in the 11,000-15,000 sort of range, so the fact they could even get to 5000 a day positives out of that demonstrates how high the percentage positivity was, in part as a result of how the testing was mostly targetted at people in hospital that were rather likely to be positive.

All of this factors into my thinking earlier this month when I said I wasnt sure if they would even be able to get back up to 5000 positive tests a day under the current system, given the much wider range of access to the tests there had been and how the system was creaking under the demand. But since then they have gone on about rationing the tests, with very similar priorities to last time, so the situation is probably going to return to a similar kind of testing regime as we had the first time, albeit with somewhat expanded capacity. So in the last 24 hours I moved on to start wondering if the current system would be abe to detect 10,000 cases a day. And I only picked 10,000 because Triggle was wanking on about how UK trajectory if it followed France & Spain made 10,000 a day more likely by mid October than 50,000, and he is usually well wrong.

 

[ska invita]

looks like they stopped counting at 5000 a day.

Second wave is going to be significantly bigger than the first then, if theres any meaningful information in the graphic

 

[elbows]

There isnt, not that sort anyway.

 

[killer b]

Second wave is going to be significantly bigger than the first then, if theres any meaningful information in the graphic

there isn't - testing capacity is way bigger now, so there's a lot more cases being found.

 

[elbows]

A reminder of what the testing situation used to be like, just an example from one moment in time:

April 17th, a week or so after the very peak from a hospitals & death perspective was in the past, and a little bit after testing was expanded to cover NHS staff:

Coronavirus testing to be rolled out to more public service staff

Capacity is rising "sharply" but fewer NHS staff than expected are coming forward, Matt Hancock says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus testing will be rolled out to people working in public services such as police, fire and prison staff, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said.

Capacity was rising "sharply" but not as many NHS staff had come forward for tests as had been expected, he said.

Eligibility for testing will also be expanded to critical local authority workers, the judiciary and Department for Work and Pensions staff, he said.

"We're able to do that because of the scale-up of testing," he added.

Mr Hancock said he hoped anyone with symptoms would be able to be tested "relatively soon".

"Now we've got the curve under control, I want to be able to get back to the position that we can test everybody with symptoms - and I anticipate being able to do that relatively soon because we're increasing capacity, as I say," he said.

When he said get back to the position where they can test everyone with symptoms, they were never in that position in the first place. Because their original testing criteria well before the peak was never about symptoms alone, it also required the person being tested to have travelled to a couple of countries in particular that were deemed to be high risk.

 

[scifisam]

It’s just a shit show all round. Staff need to protected from abuse and people can’t be denied access to essential services.

And realistically, in your work, there will be a lot of people without smartphones. I have one and it doesn't work with QR codes, probably because it's slightly damaged and the camera doesn't work properly, but there are better things for me to spend money on than a new smart phone just so I can print out an essential form at a library.

 

[elbows]

Also Hancock was being misleading in April when he said it was down to increased capacity that they would soon be able to offer tests to the public.

It was actually because of a combination of supply and demand - capacity increased a bit but the system was only able to consider the general public using it once the actual number of community infections, and therefore demand for tests, fell well below the peak levels.

 

[Orang Utan]

And realistically, in your work, there will be a lot of people without smartphones. I have one and it doesn't work with QR codes, probably because it's slightly damaged and the camera doesn't work properly, but there are better things for me to spend money on than a new smart phone just so I can print out an essential form at a library.

A staff member has an iPhone and couldn’t download the app
(Also, dunno about anywhere else but no printing is allowed in our libraries at the moment)

 

[Raheem]

Exclusive inside info.

Next week, the government will announce a replacement for furlough, which will be based on the existing Kickstart scheme (where the government pays for minimum wage jobs for young people).

I don't know any more than that.

 

[killer b]

Exclusive inside info.

Next week, the government will announce a replacement for furlough, which will be based on the existing Kickstart scheme (where the government pays for minimum wage jobs for young people).

I don't know any more than that.

He's announcing something tomorrow, probably this. Who's your 'inside' source?

 

[Raheem]

He's announcing something tomorrow, probably this. Who's your 'inside' source?

A civil servant. They didn't actually say the announcement would be next week, but that certain things needed to be in place by the middle of next week. My lax reporting.

 

[existentialist]

Llanelli threatened with local lockdown.

Wales' first town-only lockdown is being considered for Llanelli

Cases are up in Carmarthenshire, but Public Health Wales has said that certain parts - like Llanelli - could be placed in lockdown, rather than the whole county

www.walesonline.co.uk

Ouch, that's getting a bit close to home. Time to put the sea mines out in the estuaries, just in case

 

[Cloo]

I'm noticing an increasing tendency, among my friends at least, to now be assuming things will not be back to normal by next summer. Like people are expecting they might travel, but that there could be issues and they'd better not be too ambitious. Sad to say, I think it's probably best to assume so.

Though for all the dreadful shitshowiness of things I do think the summer's shown it could have been worse - we might have had a cold, wet, shitty summer; we might have found the whole thing came bouncing back the minute you lowered restrictions, regardless of weather; but we do know even if things are no better, there will be more we can do when it gets warm enough to be outside. Albeit in 6 months' time. I was struck by this when we passed a 'Pick Your Own' place in Oxfordshire the other week and my daughter talked about wanting to do something like that next year and I was sort of reassured to think that at least we probably can say 'Yes, let's do that' and not 'Yes, but we might not be able to'

 

[planetgeli]

Ouch, that's getting a bit close to home. Time to put the sea mines out in the estuaries, just in case

That sounds like a lot of trouble to go to.

Just one massive fuck off bomb in the centre of Llanelli. It could only improve it.

 

[Spandex]

Why will the 10pm ‘curfew’ make people less likely to spread the virus? Surely the opposite would be the result?

The 10pm pub closing is a Tory version of something that worked with some success in Belgium.

When C-19 cases started to rise in July a strict curfew was introduced on 28/7 across the whole Antwerp province, where the outbreak was centered. Everything had to shut at 11pm and everyone had to be home between 11.30pm and 5am. The number of new cases started to drop and in mid-August the curfew was moved back to 1.30 to 5am. Then numbers then started rising again and have shot up again recently. You can see it quite clearly on the daily new cases graph here.

There's been a lot of talk about this approach recently from more right wing keep-business-open types; a quick Google of "Belgium 10pm curfew" brings up loads of results. But the cabinet and backbench Tory MPs would never accept a full-on curfew in Britain and the right wing press would shit themselves if they tried. So we get a watered down version where pubs have to shut an hour or so early, but then people can carry on doing what they do as long as they rule-of-six.

So it might have some impact, but not as much as in Belgium. And that's without even thinking about any differences between the situation in Belgium and the UK.

 

[Maltin]

I do wonder if rather than closing everything down at once, they might use curfews more to limit things gradually. It didn’t seem that the UK used these previously whereas places like Germany did. Maybe they are starting with a 10pm one to see how that goes and maybe later they will introduce one at 8pm then maybe one at 6pm if things get gradually worse.

 

[prunus]

I’m assuming that as soon as they can the ‘rule of six’ will revert back to 2 households maximum (indoors at least). I think the only reason they didn’t bring that in with the rest of the changes is that they’d only just brought in the rule of six, and changing it so soon would make it look like they didn’t have a clue what they were doing (even more so than it looks that way anyway).

I think that in 2 or 3 (tops) weeks it will be ‘you haven’t been doing what we asked so we need to do this as well’.

 

[LDC]

Yeah, I think 2-3 weeks maximum and we'll have more restrictions, although I think they'll try to push it to half term if at all possible.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Talking about the app now on Radio 4. Short version is it's a proximity warning really, you get a beep if you've been in contact for a certain length of time with a positive case. Then you get in touch with T&T. Idea is it catches people before they get symptoms. Relies massively (entirely?) on the testing system being effective. Person on said without the testing system working the app is functionally useless.

We're not allowed to have our phones on us at work, which is where I come into contact with about 500x more people on a daily basis than I would otherwise. Not that it matters, since it won't work anyway.

 

[Miss-Shelf]

Yeah, I think 2-3 weeks maximum and we'll have more restrictions, although I think they'll try to push it to half term if at all possible.

I think they'll want to get universities delivering a version of on campus/online mix that's been promised

 

[elbows]

And as I said late last night the last ZOE covid estimate was 12,698 daily cases, and if I am reading their site properly that prediction is from September 16th based on data from 30th August to September 12th.

So I am rather keen to see their next estimate.

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

Number has since changed to 14,433 cases per day, but the stuff about September 16th and 30th August to 12th September is still there, so ignore the prediction date stuff I said earlier.

 

[sheothebudworths]

By the by, two random interjections:

1. At work, a university, we've been told they won't be cleaning rooms inbetween sessions as they will be sprayed with a 'mist' that kills the virus for 4 weeks. It's as if Donald Trump became our VC...

2. I had my own Occ Health this discussion about whether I was up to teaching face to face due to a couple of medical conditions. Fwiw, the OH guy is great and provides report that are helpful in union casework. Anyway, he mentioned the usual point that face masks only stop you transmitting to others. However there are medical grade masks that do provide protection to the wearer and recommended I wear one of those. Rather begs the question why supermarket worksers and others haven't been wearing these for months...

It's not just about the grade, you have to be shown how to fit/wear them properly, I think?
And if you haven't, it's also (supposedly) no mitigation in terms of you being considered a close contact, later, too.

We could be better protected but it would take more more money to ensure that was the case - providing/fitting medical grade masks to all workers who would reasonably need them possibly stripping the same from continuing NHS/care home reserves at the same time - it goes back to why not just test more?

So, I guess COST is the answer, as ever (I mean a pretence at the reason, really - funding the bodies who could ensure it happened, over shovelling millions over to companies who, demonstrably, cant just because they're Tory donors or whatever).

I haven't looked but I'm also wondering whether the enforcement on mask wearing for some workers even comes with an obligation for employers to provide them, anyway, let alone them being medical grade and/or fitted (it may or may not do - as I say, I've not checked!)

 

[zahir]

An article on the line being pushed by Sikora, Gupta and Heneghan. I’d be interested to know if people think the article is reliable as I’m not sure how much confidence I have in the writer or in Byline Times.

Scamademics? Right-Wing Lobbying Groups Reviving ‘Herd Immunity’ in the UK – Byline Times

Nafeez Ahmed reveals how a high-profile letter to Boris Johnson was based on ‘fringe pseudoscience’ and co-drafted by a Government advisor who downplayed the COVID-19 death toll

bylinetimes.com

 

[sheothebudworths]

That's a joke though. Pissheads gonna pisshead whatever, but for most people that last hour is the one where you start forgetting what you're supposed to be doing and ordering tequila shots, rubbing against your work colleagues, etc. Add to that, most people can't really get out drinking much earlier, so it's an extra hour less time of an evening that they'll be in contact with people. From these things alone it'll have a dampening effect.

It isn't enough, and for a small minority of people it might encourage more risky behaviour, but it's population level behaviour they're looking at here.

Who is that you think is looking at social behaviour

View attachment 231499

It's working for them then, eh, the cunts.

looks like they stopped counting at 5000 a day.
View attachment 231512

I've seen approximations of between 4 -10x the original case figures, fwiw (because there was no real testing then - not even insufficient, inadequate testing).
We can't really compare new case numbers to the previous ones (know you're not doing this killer b ) - as elbows says, lots, it's the healthcare figures to look to for similarities (and then deaths to follow ).
All of those are consistently heading up now - back into June-July and moving up at a fast pace.

 

[elbows]

An article on the line being pushed by Sikora, Gupta and Heneghan. I’d be interested to know if people think the article is reliable as I’m not sure how much confidence I have in the writer or in Byline Times.

Scamademics? Right-Wing Lobbying Groups Reviving ‘Herd Immunity’ in the UK – Byline Times

Nafeez Ahmed reveals how a high-profile letter to Boris Johnson was based on ‘fringe pseudoscience’ and co-drafted by a Government advisor who downplayed the COVID-19 death toll

bylinetimes.com

I dont have time or energy to explore that side of things, in part because I spend so much time pissing on the practicalities of the prefered pandemic approach of the shitheads. I hope others do have time to look into it from the direction provided by articles like that.

There is no point in them quacking on about shielding the vulnerable and letting everyone else go back to normal when this would require a whole bunch of stuff to do with hospitals, care homes and multi-generational households that were not deemed to be options this country, eg NHS management deciding that these were not things the NHS could actually hope to achieve.

Any things of merit these shits actually manage to stumble upon would have required, as a basic starting point, a wonderfully funded and generously staffed NHS.

Johnson also managed to reveal the limits of shortsighted definitions of who is vulnerable in this pandemic by ending up hospitalised.

I could go on with lots of other aspects and details, but I wont, especially as some of this shit is currently being discussed in the thread about Telegraph columnist Allison Pearson, albeit from a slightly different angle again.

I do not disguise the contempt I have for these people in the pandemic. I do reserve the right to move with reality and change my tune if thats what the pandemic data had shown, but so far the data usually just shows how wrong these shits have been, and the cheek they have when continuing this stance. I'll ditch any dogma that reality may demand, they dont, they are rigid and deadly.

 

[killer b]

Who is that you think is looking at social behaviour

the government

 

[Cloo]

Yeah, I think 2-3 weeks maximum and we'll have more restrictions, although I think they'll try to push it to half term if at all possible.

That's my guess too - they will try to keep the schools going until HT, maybe with a longer break and maybe shutting more stuff before schools return but I think they are going to try to avoid term-long closures again if at all possible.

 

[sheothebudworths]

the government

But they've repeatedly ignored the behavioural science. I find it harder to see any new rules being especially and/or honestly driven by any insight into social behaviour, at this stage, as a consequence - particularly in the context of those rules being obviously shite in the grand scheme of things.

 

[existentialist]

But they've repeatedly ignored the behavioural science. I find it harder to see any new rules being especially and/or honestly driven by any insight into social behaviour, at this stage, as a consequence - particularly in the context of those rules being obviously shite in the grand scheme of things.

We are truly paying the price now for the "every man for himself" cult that started in the 1980s...

 

[Artaxerxes]

But they've repeatedly ignored the behavioural science. I find it harder to see any new rules being especially and/or honestly driven by any insight into social behaviour, at this stage, as a consequence - particularly in the context of those rules being obviously shite in the grand scheme of things.

I think there has been two campaigns for the behaviour boys here, the government managed to nudge people into locking down before the government felt forced to and did that well.

They've then attempted to "nudge" people back into softly going to work while maintaining distance and other measures however they wildly underestimated the extent to which social distancing and other protective measures would collapse and how quickly it would collapse.

We won't know for sure though until the inevitable 20 year inquiry nears an end and the biographies start coming out though.