Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[brogdale]

Maybe close the boozers at 9.45pm, instead...just to be sure.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Fucking hell, 6178 new cases today.

And, and another 37 deaths, the same as yesterday.

The 7-day rolling average of daily deaths was 7 on the 3rd Sept., 3 weeks later and we are now on 25, the same as the Friday before lockdown.

 

[elbows]

And as I said late last night the last ZOE covid estimate was 12,698 daily cases, and if I am reading their site properly that prediction is from September 16th based on data from 30th August to September 12th.

So I am rather keen to see their next estimate.

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

 

[Wilf]

Because its bollocks that's why. Not the mist being effective, I don't know about that its the idea it lasts 4 weeks. I imagine it does work in a Petri dish in a lab, no chance in a real world application.

Yes, I think its an ideological mist.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Yeah, I think he was referring to a kind of weapons grade cloth version, rather than the respirator type. My specs usually steam up when up when I use a mask so I'll look a right div.

From what I recall from when NHS types were posting here back in April, any mask which is good enough to really protect you will fit your face so tightly that it's sweaty & uncomfortable. That's why they have 'fit tests' for them.

Other people in masks plus really good, functioning AC / ventilation is what you really need, I'd think - plus as well-fitting / non-woven / multilayered mask as you can bear to wear.

 

[tommers]

Right at the start somebody posted a graph showing the 1918 epidemic and the second wave dwarfed the first one. Ive always assumed that is what will happen.

 

[Teaboy]

Right at the start somebody posted a graph showing the 1918 epidemic and the second wave dwarfed the first one. Ive always assumed that is what will happen.

There is absolutely no reason to believe that will happen. The situation was very different back then in so many ways.

 

[LDC]

Cos people will drink faster, get drunker, will all go home at the same time and then have house parties drinking in smaller spaces

Some will, but I imagine the modelling or thinking behind it is that it will also put some people off going out totally, and some people will just drink less and behave better. Most people who go out probably aren't the heavy drinking then back to someone's house kind of people I expect. It's a very mild measure but it will make some kind of impact.

 

[brogdale]

Right at the start somebody posted a graph showing the 1918 epidemic and the second wave dwarfed the first one. Ive always assumed that is what will happen.

Pubs open till 10.30pm under the 1914 Defence of the Realm act; bet they regretted that extra 30 mins.

 

[existentialist]

It’s as if we’re all playing some macabre game of musical chairs, the music has stopped and we’ve all sat down, if we can find a seat. And there we must stay until the music starts again. But the violinist has packed up his instrument and gone home, and he wont come back until he gets a sip of vaccine.

"Fiddling while Rome burns"

I shall be pissed off when I get to the bottom of this thread and find that someone's made the same joke.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

I posted this earlier but they are already using it in my industry. They've just done away with the stupid 4 week claim nonsense

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/09/23/bam-installs-covid-killing-spray-tunnel-on-site/

.

Yes, I've seen this being tried out. Fine for what it is I guess, but won't do anything to stop people spreading the virus with their breath or lack of distancing. (It's impossible to distance on site all the time).
Just more 'performance hygiene' - and might do more harm than good if it encourages a false sense of security.
It shouldn't be 'ventilation' OR 'masks' OR 'distancing' as they aren't all equally effective.

Temperature checks on admittance to site is a good thing though.

 

[andysays]

"Fiddling while Rome burns"

I shall be pissed off when I get to the bottom of this thread and find that someone's made the same joke.

Not this thread but

Meanwhile he's fiddling while the whole world burns...

 

[planetgeli]

Llanelli threatened with local lockdown.

Wales' first town-only lockdown is being considered for Llanelli

Cases are up in Carmarthenshire, but Public Health Wales has said that certain parts - like Llanelli - could be placed in lockdown, rather than the whole county

www.walesonline.co.uk

 

[LDC]

Fuck that daily infection rate is very high. I have sense of doom about the next six months, more than the previous wave.

 

[elbows]

Fuck that daily infection rate is very high. I have sense of doom about the next six months, more than the previous wave.

My doom expectations cover quite a wide range at the moment due to uncertainty about everything from the effects of coinfection to what measures will actually be imposed.

 

[existentialist]

View attachment 231499

Shit.

 

[elbows]

I know I'm trying to stop driving myelf mad with things the BBC Nick Triggle says, but I suppose I will indulge in reporting on the latest Triggle wiggle in the face of todays numbers:

We should be very careful about reading too much into a single day's rise - the jump of more than 1,000 is rapid and if repeated would mean daily case numbers doubling in less than a week. But figures can fluctuate from day to day.

Nonetheless, the UK has been warned it should be prepared for cases to continue growing. The figure for new cases is well below what was seen at the peak, which was estimated at 100,000 cases a day. We don't know for sure, since a lack of testing meant the system was only picking up the tip of the iceberg then.

Clearly we are not picking up all the cases now - the evidence from last week's surveillance report suggested perhaps only half were being identified by the testing programme.

What matters now is whether this scale of rise is repeated in the coming days and weeks - and how that translates into hospitalisations and deaths, both of which are going up too.

The data from Spain and France suggests that sharp rises can slow, and upward trends in admissions to hospital can be reversed.

But, make no mistake, the UK is entering a crucial point in the battle against the virus.

Covid-19: Daily reported UK cases rise by a quarter

There have been 6,178 cases in the UK in the last 24 hours, up 1,252 cases since Tuesday.

www.bbc.co.uk

Stupid git wouldnt have to wiggle so much if he didnt try to spin the anti-lockdown everything will be fine, put up with the death agenda.

 

[killer b]

what measures did spain and france take to reverse their upward trends?

 

[Steel Icarus]

Fuck that daily infection rate is very high. I have sense of doom about the next six months, more than the previous wave.

Me too, as it looks like I might not be able to hunker down, WFH and ride it out like the first time around

 

[frogwoman]

100,000 cases a day?

 

[elbows]

what measures did spain and france take to reverse their upward trends?

I wouldnt make the claim that they managed to reverse their upward trend yet. Triggle was trying to spin their trajectory as only being compatible with 10,000 cases in the UK by mid October, not 50,000 just last night, and he has used several dodgy graphs in recent days. Im not sure I have the energy to keep presenting my different picture using similar data.

 

[elbows]

100,000 cases a day?

Thats one of the more sensible things he said.

There really is no point comparing the number of cases our very limited testing system picked up in the firt wave, with what we are seeing picked up now, if it causes confusion about the actual number of cases at the peak the first time round.

I dont have an exact estimate for the peak number of daily infections the first time around but it was a very large number and so I would not automatically blink at 100,000, that sort of number seems reasonable but I would need to double check as I could be wrong on that.

 

[killer b]

I was reading an estimate yesterday of 4 million people infected in the first wave, which needs numbers like 100,000 a day to get to.

 

[frogwoman]

What was the highest number of cases last time?

 

[elbows]

I was reading an estimate yesterday of 4 million people infected in the first wave, which needs numbers like 100,000 a day to get to.

Yes and another very small illustration that hopefully feeds into that point.

UK hospital admissions data was managing to pick up over 3000 cases a day at the peak, so I think it goes without saying that there were many tends of thousands of daily infections at that point, minimum.

 

[elbows]

What was the highest number of cases last time?

We were only testing very ill and very important people the first time so if you are looking at the number of cases actually detected through testing then you are making a very large mistake indeed.

The exception to this was people with a certain narrow travel history in the early days. But that sort of testing was abandoned by early March, and the testing efforts went mostly towards hospital patients etc.

 

[killer b]

What was the highest number of cases last time?

looks like they stopped counting at 5000 a day.

 

[savoloysam]

From what I recall from when NHS types were posting here back in April, any mask which is good enough to really protect you will fit your face so tightly that it's sweaty & uncomfortable. That's why they have 'fit tests' for them.

Other people in masks plus really good, functioning AC / ventilation is what you really need, I'd think - plus as well-fitting / non-woven / multilayered mask as you can bear to wear.

The virus is airborne or whatever the fuck you want to call it. You still breath air with or without a mask.

Some will, but I imagine the modelling or thinking behind it is that it will also put some people off going out totally, and some people will just drink less and behave better. Most people who go out probably aren't the heavy drinking then back to someone's house kind of people I expect. It's a very mild measure but it will make some kind of impact.

The thinking is we are going to close the pubs again. This is just the first step.

 

[killer b]

Sunak is up tomorrow with some announcement about supporting the economy over winter btw. Will he be extending/replacing furlough tomorrow, or will he be doing it next week?

 

[cupid_stunt]

The estimate of over 100,000 cases a day figure, at the peak, has been widly reported over the months.