Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[The39thStep]

Its often better to read the source material for ourselves than rely only on such summaries. And so far I've found that much of the 'value' from studying SAGE documents and other similar stuff is to keep all the dates in mind and see how their stance shifts at various key moments.

In this case most of the documents I've seen on the subject of disorder were either very early, or were from a particular period just after mid-April. I've only read the first one of these so far so I cant get into discussing the subject properly right now. I havent checked the minutes for mentions of this subject around those dates yet either.

Neighbourhood-level release and COVID-19

Policing the coronavirus outbreak: processes and prospects for collective disorder (19 April 2020)

How an exit strategy might affect crime and policing - working paper (21 April 2020)

Thanks for digging this out Elbows , you've been a star in this with research.

Most of these are desktop analysis /summaries based on behavioural theory by academics .I have some time for Clifford Stott who is one of the authors who has produced some useful work on Polcing . behaviour and football. They aren't a threat assessment. though , the papers ,except from referencing one alleged incident of rioting in the UK ( theft of alcohol at a supermarket) a brief reference to France ( police violence on citizens breaking the lockdown} and reports from Souh Korea about riots in China , are data/intelligence light but provide a succinct summary of theories on disorder and some insight again based on behaviour as how to reduce the threat.
Theres a good reference to legitimacy and lockdowns and the key issue of 'we are all in it together' ( somewhat dated know post Cummings) Some stuff on 'mutual aid' v enforcement style in Policing which in reality is very difficult to deliver with Police cuts and the near end of neighbourhood Policing and actually undermined by stunts like Police drones in the Lake District type stuff. Some brief issues about potential impact of cultural groups adherence to lockdown and makes the point several times that the impact of corona virus both health and economic wise is greater on on poorer areas. This is where the thrust of the headlines of regional local lockdowns comes from tbh . Some speculation about attacks on tourists in rural areas and vigilantism in enforcing social distancing . Finally there is an interesting but completely unsubstantiated claim, almost throw away to be honest, about potential disorder and extremist groups and how such disorder might be used by foreign powers.
As I have said a speedy desktop summary of behavioural theory with suggested/for example impacts ( not surprising as it reports to the Behavioural group within Sage) in some cases possible, likely and unlikely which no doubt would be but one contribution of many to risk assessments across Police and Resilience forums across the UK. File under potentially useful.

 

[Humberto]

This is pretty rich from you of all people tbh.

Yeah no one likes my posts obv. Look I really respect Elbows but the guy is over working himself.

 

[quimcunx]

What it will be vaguely interesting to see is when the govt say no need to keep working at home. Unless a big enough number of employers say they are losing out by their staff wfh instead of offices I cant see a political reason why they would say get back to your offices so it might actually be led by science. And actually bearing in mind that lockdown is being lifted sooner than science says it's safe maybe wfh will stay in place longer to compensate.

I'm also interested to know what other countries have done about lifting wfh and with what precautions in place.

 

[wtfftw]

Well, they sound like cunts. CF/ME is recognised as an illness, just not as the illness that some people want it to be.

CF is not CFS.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Need to keep an eye on that for sure. Its a shame I cannot have as much confidence in the very latest weeks data as I can earlier data. They have a disclaimer about that under those graphs but I havent completely got my head around it yet.




I thought the antibody results in the document were quite interesting.

View attachment 215225

These weekly reports are available from:

National COVID-19 surveillance reports

National COVID-19 surveillance reports, including weekly summary of findings monitored through various COVID-19 surveillance systems.

www.gov.uk

Edited to add that I suppose I should quote a few things from that section too:

Following up on an earlier point about asymptomatic cases and anitbodies, I found this study done in China a month ago. (Preprint, so not yet peer-reviewed.)

Early viral clearance and antibody kinetics of COVID-19 among asymptomatic carriers

Key points appear to be:

The prevalence of asymptomatic cases in children.

The viral load of asymptomatic cases similar to that for symptomatic cases, but it clears up more quickly and the period in which the person may be infectious is about a third shorter.

Antibodies: Much lower levels of IgM generated, but only slightly lower levels of IgG.

So, from this admittedly small sample (23 asymptomatic cases) the evidence is that subsequent testing for IgG antibodies should identify them.

 

[teuchter]

It's perfectly readable for those with an iota of patience and a willingness to learn.

This is complicated stuff.

Yes.

 

[MrSki]

Looks like a lot of people have decided lockdown is over already.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Looks like a lot of people have decided lockdown is over already.

There's been a couple of accidents this afternoon on the M3, with lane closures, which probably explains the stationary traffic.

 

[DaveCinzano]

There's been a couple of accidents this afternoon on the M3, with lane closures, which probably explains the stationary traffic.

Clearly an outbreak of Acute Cummings Vision to blame

 

[DaveCinzano]

The queue to get into Morrison's this morning was huge, I'd estimate it was up to around a 30 minute wait to get in, and it looked packed inside as well. Yet I went round the back and got my Click & Collect order within about 5 minutes of confirming I was there. No one else was waiting or arrived for C&C whilst I (very briefly) waited. Bonkers.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

People are allowed to drive aren't they. Is 'look at these bastards driving when they're allowed to drive' the new 'look at these bastards going to the park when they're allowed to go to the park'?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

People are allowed to drive aren't they. Is 'look at these bastards driving when they're allowed to drive' the new 'look at these bastards going to the park when they're allowed to go to the park'?

With a pic taken from a car/by a person in the park...

 

[weltweit]

Looks like a lot of people have decided lockdown is over already.

TBF it is quite hard to get to Durham from the M3 ..

 

[Looby]

They’re probably all on their way to fucking Dorset making it impossible to safely visit my local beach.
Won’t risk it anyway, I might end up bumping into Harry Redknapp failing to social distance.

 

[treelover]

The bookies have Johnson at 3 to 1 to quit this year, 7 to 1 to quit next year. Good odds? I think he'll get some sort of CFS/ME and have to give up. Actually a lot of people with ME are hoping that Covid sufferers get it, cos then they'll have recognition of their illness and a proper research effort. I have ME but I don't think it's going to help if lots more people have it. But I'm a mild case. If people who've been bedridden for years want the Covid crowd to join them...I can understand that.

in the near future people with M.E will have a lot to offer those who are Post Covid and showing M.E type symptoms,

waits for the deniers/gaslighters, to pile in.

 

[treelover]

Well, they sound like cunts. CF/ME is recognised as an illness, just not as the illness that some people want it to be.

Mmm...

 

[Artaxerxes]

Looks like a lot of people have decided lockdown is over already.

It's busier than I've ever seen it around here, lots of people walking in family groups, garage sales in driveways, socially distant queues at butchers and bakers (noone ever normally visits the crap bakers) and Epping forest itself is chockablock.

 

[Humberto]

I do my best, it takes hours. I know it doesnt always work out. I cannot retain the level of detail necessary to make my point the way I want to make it if I cut back too much. I'm glad I wont be spending the hours trying in future.

In all honesty that was a bit of an arsehole/dismissive thing to say. You've really done this place proud.

 

[andysays]

elbows I am new to U75, from following a link to the now invisible ‘NHS...How’s it going...’ thread that was posted on... it might have been on one of mumsnet’s more intelligent threads.
I don’t know your age, gender, whether your interest in analysis of statistics is professional or purely personal, nor have I ever looked at your posting history, but I warmly appreciate the time you have devoted to these analyses, and to posting articulate, engaging and very readable comments, and, often, graphs and links, so generously.
Thank you, and do be kind to yourself.

Welcome to U75

 

[andysays]

If you take your tinfoil hat off the signal will get through

I suspect Dexter has had the tin foil hat permanently welded to his head and there's now no way to remove it, even if he wanted to

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, testing has been averaging around 120,000 a day this week.

Does that mean we should expect another sudden massive jump tomorrow, so that they can claim they have hit Johnson's target of 200,000 a day, by the end of May?

 

[farmerbarleymow]

Naturally - they'll massage the figures to meet their stupid target.

I don't know why I watch these fucking charades, but here I am again watching it.

 

[2hats]

So, testing has been averaging around 120,000 a day this week.

"People tested Unavailable"

 

[farmerbarleymow]

"People tested Unavailable"

"the dog ate the results"

 

[cupid_stunt]

"People tested Unavailable"

That's because to meet the end of April deadline of 100,000 tests a day, they changed the method of counting, to include 'tests posted out', rather than tests actually carried out, and I suspect they don't want to expose the numbers that have 'gone missing in post'.

, , say no more.

 

[2hats]

That's because to meet the end of April deadline of 100,000 tests a day, they changed the method of counting, to include 'tests posted out', rather than tests actually carried out, and I suspect they don't want to expose the numbers that have 'gone missing in post'.

, , say no more.

Indeed, I'm well aware. The tests per day also include multiple tests on individuals.

 

[MrSki]

I have read unconfirmed reports that they have not met the target of 100,000 people being tested a day, which was supposed to be in force at the beginning of May, once.

 

[kropotkin]

Well, they sound like cunts. CF/ME is recognised as an illness, just not as the illness that some people want it to be.

I thought exactly the same.

 

[treelover]

So, what did you think?

M/H?

 

[Boudicca]

Did you see this Looby? Durdle Door. It's just a picture published by the Purbeck Police and I don't know what is going on but the white suits are worrying.