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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Is it like that often during the summer?
It gets busy, Lulworth is always busy really. I avoid places like that in peak tourist time.
Beaches like Bournemouth and Sandbanks are often heaving in really good weather. Last summer we were getting to the car park before 8.30 to get a parking space.
But that’s in ‘normal’ times with hotels, holiday parks and campsites open so people are here on holiday.
 
Is it like that often during the summer?
It's a steep climb down so only for the fairly fit and healthy. You can see in the photos that most of the people are young. Given that 98% of transmission is indoors, that young people generally don't get corona too badly and everywhere they normally go is closed, I think it's very understandable that they are on the beach. If I was 25 years old, I probably would be too. That does not excuse the idiots who injured themselves and forced everyone to squash up on the beach and perhaps join the 2% who catch it outdoors.

They've closed the road now.
 
It gets busy, Lulworth is always busy really. I avoid places like that in peak tourist time.
Beaches like Bournemouth and Sandbanks are often heaving in really good weather. Last summer we were getting to the car park before 8.30 to get a parking space.
But that’s in ‘normal’ times with hotels, holiday parks and campsites open so people are here on holiday.

Yep it is beautiful! I don't think I could cope with the q and crowds though.
 
I agree with Boudicca regarding the infection risk outside, so what looks to us now, after a couple of months more or less confined to our homes, like staggeringly packed beaches and parks is actually probably okay.
And then there's also the point Looby makes about lifeguards not being there yet, as well as lack of toilets and other infrastructure. It's a bit like the Snowdon scenes just before lockdown. It'd be great if the government could just stop for one second to think what the consequences of these announcements are, when the whole country that would otherwise be at work/playing or watching sports/in the pub/shopping/socialising at home etc etc suddenly flocks to the great outdoors on the same day...

Few more bits gleaned from Germany again, one tieing in with the indoor transmission risk. In a choir in Berlin a whopping 60 of 80 singers got infected, in one rehearsal I believe. (This was already in March, prior to contact restrictions, and despite a lot of places having reopened, choirs aren't back just yet in Germany, but still interesting in terms of a "superspreader" event under pre-lockdown circs).
A new outbreak in a small city in the North of Germany after a couple of private parties last weekend. Contact tracing in full effect, an estimated 300 people needing to be contacted and isolated as a result.

I fear the contact tracing teams here will also have their work cut out by the end of next week following this party time weekend. :(
 
Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Here's how it's looking in the park near me. Last night there was a busy street party outside my block with a full on, jam-packed house party below.

 
Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Brockwell Park is packed as the lockdown weakens


Here's how it's looking in the park near me. Last night there was a busy street party outside my block with a full on, jam-packed house party below.

Parks I was in last weekend were like that too. Lockdown has been more or less broken wrt outside gatherings in London for a few weeks now. But new infections continue to fall.
 
Following up on an earlier point about asymptomatic cases and anitbodies, I found this study done in China a month ago. (Preprint, so not yet peer-reviewed.)

Early viral clearance and antibody kinetics of COVID-19 among asymptomatic carriers

Key points appear to be:

The prevalence of asymptomatic cases in children.

The viral load of asymptomatic cases similar to that for symptomatic cases, but it clears up more quickly and the period in which the person may be infectious is about a third shorter.

Antibodies: Much lower levels of IgM generated, but only slightly lower levels of IgG.

So, from this admittedly small sample (23 asymptomatic cases) the evidence is that subsequent testing for IgG antibodies should identify them.

And here is a BBC story about those pesky asymptomatic cases. It does drag on a bit but finally gets to the detail:


Different studies suggest a huge range of possibilities for how many cases are asymptomatic stretching from 5% to 80% of cases. That was the conclusion of an analysis by Prof Carl Heneghan of the University of Oxford and colleagues who looked at 21 research projects.

The upshot, they said, was that "there is not a single reliable study to determine the number of asymptomatics". And they said that if the screening for Covid-19 is only carried out on people with symptoms - which has been the main focus of UK testing policy - then cases will be missed, "perhaps a lot of cases".

They correctly point out the need to understand this better, and some of the complications this poses for tacking the disease. hat I never have any stomach for is the way this stuff is talked about as if its a huge surprise. Asymptomatic cases of respiratory disease should not be a surprise, but it seems they do, perhaps because of the longstanding impressions about disease people have come to accept as the whole story, perhaps because of bias against anything that is too inconvenient for our oversimplified way of dealing with things.
 
And with that said, as far as the UK goes I expect the authorities to notice this stuff more when they do wide staff testing in particular hospitals (as with Weston recently).
 
Elbows makes really good posts, but their user name makes me think of a gang member with an unusual fighting style.

Eta: Hadn't realised how many posts had been made since Elbows was under discussion.

If the unusual fighting style involves accidentally making a hole in a new bath by slipping over and coming down on my elbow right next to where the crap and flimsy bath met a support, and then panicking as water emptied into the kitchen below, then it would be in tune with the origins of this nickname.

I am still on track to have a nice break in June, but I will keep plodding away, somethat intermittently, at the SAGE minutes and papers anyway. I see something on the front page of the Sunday Telegraph about how officials could 'only cope with 5 COVID-19 cases a week' which appears to relate to how much contract tracing the awful system could actually ahndle during the original 'contain' phase. I havent found the relevant SAGE stuff on this yet, but its not surprising, this sort of thing is why I have always said the contain phase was not a genuine attempt at containment, at best it was only a delay and learn phase.
 
overnment announced overnight that extremely vulnerable people who have been shielding can now exercise outside, and if they live alone can meet one person from another household outdoors, from Monday.
Lockdown easing for Covid-19 ‘shielders’ from Monday announced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson
What is the fucking matter with these morons? MY D-i-L, one of the extremely vulnerable groups has been going for a sioitary walk with her partner throughout the entire crisis. After a very short foray along the road, they nip through a hedge into fields where they have 'befriended' a family of water voles. Does this govt seriously think anyone not bedridden has been literally under lock and key? I get that people live in different circumstances - D-i L lives in a busy uni town...but with enough wildness on the edges to swish through nettles and be entirely alone. And outside, safe. With her mental health intact.
But no, they make these ludicrous announcements which manage to be both eerily specific (such as precise number???) while still being vague and ambiguous.
I would surely expect that, like us, the majority of the UK take zero notice of crappy blitherings made by govt. stooges...and operate from a point of intelligent awareness, having been utterly unable to rely on a single govt initiative whatsoever. . There are only 2 things to bear in mind, surely - to protect yourself and everyone else by remaining separate...whether indoors, outdoors, in private spaces or public land. Everything else is...just a bit pointless. Especially since they need to eat and as a youngish and healthy looking couple, there are no eager mutual aid groups and because R has a partner, she has conscientiously refused to accept food parcels because people who live alone are a priority...so the weekly supermarket visit has been far more of a worry than staying indoors.
 
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Does this govt seriously think anyone not bedridden has been literally under lock and key?

Lots of people took the shielding stuff very seriously and havent left the house since that stuff came into effect. And lots of people who were shielding in that way were complaining this week of having been forgotten and left behind, which I'm sure went on to influence the timing of that announcement.
 
What is the fucking matter with these morons? MY D-i-L, one of the extremely vulnerable groups has been going for a sioitary walk with her partner throughout the entire crisis. After a very short foray along the raod, they nip through a hedge into fields where they have 'befriended' a family of water voles. Does this govt seriously think anyone not bedridden has been literally under lock and key? I get that people live in different circumstances - D-i L lives in a busy uni town...but with enough wildness on the edges to swish through nettles and be entirely alone. And outside, safe. With her mental health intact.
But no, they make these ludicrous announcements which manage to be both eerily specific (such as precise number???, while still being vague and ambiguous.
I would surely expect that, like us, the majority of the UK take zero notice of crappy blitherings made by govt. stooges...and operate from a point of intelligent awareness. There are only 2 things to bear in mind, surely - to protect yourself and everyone else by remaining separate...whether indoors, outdoors, in private spaces or public land. Everything else is...just a bit pointless.
Actually I have a couple of friends who have been surprisingly compliant, with consequent effects to their mental health. One of them is counting her 12 weeks, as though it will magically be safe when they are over.
 
Lots of people took the shielding stuff very seriously and havent left the house since that stuff came into effect. And lots of people who were shielding in that way were complaining this week of having been forgotten and left behind, which I'm sure went on to influence the timing of that announcement.
Yep, I get that...but not about a strict indoor/outdoor thing... the general lack of any clear policy regarding money it has been far more worrying, to Rachel, who normally works as a nursery teacher, Obviously, she is going nowhere on June 1st,,, whether nurseries open or not...and her long-term existence has been of much more import than whether she is inside/outside and how many people she can wave at. Is she ever going to return to work...and how will they pay rent, bills and eat? These are much more anxiety inducing than remaining in the house.
 
These stupid announcements couldn'r be a distraction to avoid discussing the bigger issues such as being able to keep a roof over people's heads and actually live...could they (cynical smirk)? Surely not (disbelieving shrug). Or just some irrelevant fluff to get us looking away from the egregious fails of the govt. machine.
 
If the unusual fighting style involves accidentally making a hole in a new bath by slipping over and coming down on my elbow right next to where the crap and flimsy bath met a support, and then panicking as water emptied into the kitchen below, then it would be in tune with the origins of this nickname.
I did that as a teenager - slipped in the shower and landed on my knee, punching a hole in the bath. My parents weren't amused, not least as they'd only recently retiled the bathroom. Then there was a time when I tripped running down the stairs and put my hand through the front door - I was a liability as a kid.
 
What is the fucking matter with these morons? MY D-i-L, one of the extremely vulnerable groups has been going for a sioitary walk with her partner throughout the entire crisis. After a very short foray along the road, they nip through a hedge into fields where they have 'befriended' a family of water voles. Does this govt seriously think anyone not bedridden has been literally under lock and key? I get that people live in different circumstances - D-i L lives in a busy uni town...but with enough wildness on the edges to swish through nettles and be entirely alone. And outside, safe. With her mental health intact.
But no, they make these ludicrous announcements which manage to be both eerily specific (such as precise number???) while still being vague and ambiguous.
I would surely expect that, like us, the majority of the UK take zero notice of crappy blitherings made by govt. stooges...and operate from a point of intelligent awareness, having been utterly unable to rely on a single govt initiative whatsoever. . There are only 2 things to bear in mind, surely - to protect yourself and everyone else by remaining separate...whether indoors, outdoors, in private spaces or public land. Everything else is...just a bit pointless. Especially since they need to eat and as a youngish and healthy looking couple, there are no eager mutual aid groups and because R has a partner, she has conscientiously refused to accept food parcels because people who live alone are a priority...so the weekly supermarket visit has been far more of a worry than staying indoors.

I've been regularly going outside, just haven't risked the shops and studiously crossing the road or dodging into paths when seeing other people going past. Which is why I get so irate at joggers/others not making space.

The advice to hide away from others in your house was fucking mental, like, I can't physically do this in a flat this size.
 
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