Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[DexterTCN]

Not sure where to put this...it seems Irish radio has been blocked in the UK.

 

[Mation]

Not sure where to put this...it seems Irish radio has been blocked in the UK.

How do you mean?

 

[DexterTCN]

How do you mean?

Ask your alexa or google...it's not available in the UK now.

 

[Mation]

Ask your alexa or google...it's not available in the UK now.

Well. Seems like neither of us can be arsed to look any further.

 

[Supine]

Not sure where to put this...it seems Irish radio has been blocked in the UK.

Covid is doing all sorts of damage

 

[Raheem]

Not sure where to put this...it seems Irish radio has been blocked in the UK.

I'm getting RTE on my phone without any problems.

 

[20Bees]

if you get your post count up to 50 posts you'll be able to see that thread and the "hidden" forum its in 20Bees
you can always post any old nonsense on this thread to get your count up:

https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/drop-one-keep-one.283730/page-1109#post-16571737

Thank you, I didn’t know that - I imagined it had been made private, which was fair enough.

 

[ska invita]

Thank you, I didn’t know that - I imagined it had been made private, which was fair enough.

its so only "members of the community" can see it, not just random people who come across it. I forget now, but i think there are at least two forums that become available when you hit 50 posts. welcome by the way!

 

[Orang Utan]

Ask your alexa or google...it's not available in the UK now.

If you take your tinfoil hat off the signal will get through

 

[ska invita]

The BBC has this summary of extracts from the SAGE minutes
The documents also showed:

• On March 13, just before the government changed strategy, "Sage was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak"
• The advice said neighbourhood or local lockdowns could undermine national measures or lead to a significant issue of disorder.
• Even if every adult with a smartphone had the contact tracing app, it would not identify more than 50% of contacts
• In mid-Feb, Sage said a "lack of data from China continues to hamper understanding"
• The PM's top adviser Dominic Cummings attended six out of the 34 meetings
• Hairdressers and other "personal care services" should not reopen soon as they "typically rely on highly-connected workers who may accelerate transmission"
• The risk from attending large events is no higher than small ones because "close contact" is the biggest risk
• Family gatherings are "particularly high risk" and religious services with high levels of physical contact are "higher risk"
• Since April 23, Sage has called for routine testing of all healthcare staff and on 7 May said this should take place even when there are no symptoms
• Modellers disagree on the impact of moving into "phase 2" including some children going to school, with some worried it will bring the R number above 1

The one thing that really stands out to me there is:

• The advice said neighbourhood or local lockdowns could undermine national measures or lead to a significant issue of disorder.

The current government "policy" if you can call it that, is ease off lockdown (too early) but when there's a new outbreak a lockdown will kick in on a localised level. Directly contradicting SAGE advice. Again.

 

[two sheds]

"The risk from attending large events is no higher than small ones because "close contact" is the biggest risk"

... seems very strange because with say 30,000 people surely you'll effectively for example have 6,000 groups of 5 in close contact. You're going to have a lot more spread than with 20 people.

 

[ska invita]

"The risk from attending large events is no higher than small ones because "close contact" is the biggest risk"

... seems very strange because with say 30,000 people surely you'll effectively for example have 6,000 groups of 5 in close contact. You're going to have a lot more spread than with 20 people.

a summary may have missed the point...perhaps as an individual you'll come into close contact with a simliar number of people, so your personal risk is the same, though the overall effect is much bigger for the spread? Im speculating here. Maybe the point they were making is shut down small events too, not just big ones?

 

[The39thStep]

The BBC has this summary of extracts from the SAGE minutes
The documents also showed:

• On March 13, just before the government changed strategy, "Sage was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid-19 will cause a second peak"
• The advice said neighbourhood or local lockdowns could undermine national measures or lead to a significant issue of disorder.
• Even if every adult with a smartphone had the contact tracing app, it would not identify more than 50% of contacts
• In mid-Feb, Sage said a "lack of data from China continues to hamper understanding"
• The PM's top adviser Dominic Cummings attended six out of the 34 meetings
• Hairdressers and other "personal care services" should not reopen soon as they "typically rely on highly-connected workers who may accelerate transmission"
• The risk from attending large events is no higher than small ones because "close contact" is the biggest risk
• Family gatherings are "particularly high risk" and religious services with high levels of physical contact are "higher risk"
• Since April 23, Sage has called for routine testing of all healthcare staff and on 7 May said this should take place even when there are no symptoms
• Modellers disagree on the impact of moving into "phase 2" including some children going to school, with some worried it will bring the R number above 1

The one thing that really stands out to me there is:

• The advice said neighbourhood or local lockdowns could undermine national measures or lead to a significant issue of disorder.

The current government "policy" if you can call it that, is ease off lockdown (too early) but when there's a new outbreak a lockdown will kick in on a localised level. Directly contradicting SAGE advice. Again.

Not entirely sure what evidence Sage would have for a prediction of significant disorder for local lockdowns tbh, Yes it would have to be risked assessed but surely that would involve a threat assessment by the local councils and Police? Other countries have had and do have regional specific responses. Lisbon as we speak will not be subject to the lifting of restrictions that the rest of Portugal will enjoy next month. I think I remember early on in the crisis pre lockdown a similar view from Sage that a national lockdown would run the risk of disorder which when the lockdown was imposed wasn't realised?

 

[David Clapson]

The bookies have Johnson at 3 to 1 to quit this year, 7 to 1 to quit next year. Good odds? I think he'll get some sort of CFS/ME and have to give up. Actually a lot of people with ME are hoping that Covid sufferers get it, cos then they'll have recognition of their illness and a proper research effort. I have ME but I don't think it's going to help if lots more people have it. But I'm a mild case. If people who've been bedridden for years want the Covid crowd to join them...I can understand that.

 

[elbows]

Not entirely sure what evidence Sage would have for a prediction of significant disorder for local lockdowns tbh, Yes it would have to be risked assessed but surely that would involve a threat assessment by the local councils and Police? Other countries have had and do have regional specific responses. Lisbon as we speak will not be subject to the lifting of restrictions that the rest of Portugal will enjoy next month. I think I remember early on in the crisis pre lockdown a similar view from Sage that a national lockdown would run the risk of disorder which when the lockdown was imposed wasn't realised?

Its often better to read the source material for ourselves than rely only on such summaries. And so far I've found that much of the 'value' from studying SAGE documents and other similar stuff is to keep all the dates in mind and see how their stance shifts at various key moments.

In this case most of the documents I've seen on the subject of disorder were either very early, or were from a particular period just after mid-April. I've only read the first one of these so far so I cant get into discussing the subject properly right now. I havent checked the minutes for mentions of this subject around those dates yet either.

Neighbourhood-level release and COVID-19

Policing the coronavirus outbreak: processes and prospects for collective disorder (19 April 2020)

How an exit strategy might affect crime and policing - working paper (21 April 2020)

 

[elbows]

It was pretty inevitable that the first period I would look at in the SAGE minutes was all around the crucial weeks in March. I wont attempt to discuss everything properly in one go, I will just start by zooming in on my favourite subject of the botched timing, the orthodox approach, and the '4 weeks behind Italy' crap.

Well from what I've read so far, a lot of the stuff that came out of Vallances mouth, especially in and around the March 9th and March 12th press conferences was a reasonable representation of quite large chunks of the SAFE stuff that ended up recorded in the minutes. Unfortunately for all concerned, this involved some of the most obviously wrong stuff that contributed to the failures in the response of this country to the pandemic.

For example the '4 weeks behind Italy' stuff Vallance drove me crazy by going on about, was actually even worse:

March 10th: https://assets.publishing.service.g..._meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf

The UK is considered to be 4-5 weeks behind Italy but on a similar curve (6-8 weeks behind if interventions are applied).

There are plenty of other signs of atrocious timing and being too late with things, but I'm not trying to do a thorough job on this right now. So I'll just give one example that may relate to some of the reasons why they botched the 'how far behind Italy' estimate by a baffling degree.

It was agreed that PHE and SPI-M should discuss how to make surveillance data more useful for modelling purposes (e.g. providing case location data).

And this table provides some indications about the limitations of their ambitions and the sense of timing they were still going with on March 10th, before the u-turn.



Anyway we already know this position didnt last much longer. Lets have a quick look at how their sense of timing was doing just 3 days later at their next meeting. S0383_Fifteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf

There are probably more cases in the UK than SAGE previously expected at this point, and we may be further ahead on the epidemic curve, but the UK remains on broadly the same epidemic trajectory. The change in numbers is due to the 5-7 day lag phase in data availability for modelling.

These particular minutes also cover another topic that I know is generating interest:

SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of Covid- 19 will cause a second peak. SAGE advises that it is a near certainty that countries such as China, where heavy suppression is underway, will experience a second peak once measures are relaxed.

I tend to fit this into my old theory about the orthodox approach dying during that week, and some lag in the realisation that actually various previously unthinkable things now looked like the only option and experts invovled needed to shake up some of their ideas.

Even by March 16th when everything is actually in u-turn, there are still some areas where they are plodding along and getting it wrong. eg the doubling rate:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888784/S0384_Sixteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf

1. London has the greatest proportion of the UK outbreak. It is possible that London has both community and nosocomial transmission (i.e. in hospitals).
2. It is possible that there are 5,000-10,000 new cases per day in the UK (great uncertainty around this estimate).
3. UK cases may be doubling in number every 5-6 days.

Elsewhere in that document there are some clues that suggest that just like it looked to the public on this week, the government were still pissing around wondering if they could delay school closures or tie them in to easter holidays in some way. SAGE had been pretty full on anti-school closures up to this stage but were now being asked to explore various things on that front.

In other regards the obvious u-turn and realisation that the original plans timing was also totally unsuitable were on full display:

1. On the basis of accumulating data, including on NHS critical care capacity, the advice from SAGE has changed regarding the speed of implementation of additional interventions.
2. SAGE advises that there is clear evidence to support additional social distancing measures be introduced as soon as possible.
3. These additional measures will need to be accompanied by a significant increase in testing and the availability of near real-time data flows to understand their impacts.
4. SAGE will further review at its next meeting whether, in the light of new data, school closures may also be required to prevent NHS capacity being exceeded.

On March 18th comes a modification to the 'how many weeks behind Italy' stuff, and their old stance on schools is also history:

Seventeenth SAGE meeting on COVID-19 - 18 March 2020

1. Based on limited available evidence, SAGE considers that the UK is 2 to 4 weeks behind Italy in terms of the epidemic curve. The consensus is that growth of the UK epidemic is tracking at the same rate as in other countries.
2. SAGE advises that available evidence now supports implementing school closures on a national level as soon as practicable to prevent NHS intensive care capacity being exceeded.

1. There are 1,950 cases in the UK (17/03 at 14:00), with 87 intensive care cases, of which 62 are in London. Testing capacity has reached 6,084 daily, with a goal to reach 25,000 tests as soon as possible.
2. The UK is following broadly the same exponential growth rate of cases as Italy, and there is consistency with patterns in other countries.
3. There is uncertainty on our exact position, but the consensus view is that we are 2-4 weeks behind the epidemic curve in Italy.
4. Assuming a doubling time of around 5-7 days continues to be reasonable, but this is before any of the measures brought in have had an effect; these measures are likely to slow the doubling time even if there is still an exponential curve.
5. Modelling suggests that, without mitigation, London could reach Covid-19-related intensive care capacity by early April.

By March 23rd more corrections to their earlier estimates can be seen:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888787/S0386_Eighteenth_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19_.pdf

8. The accumulation of cases over the previous two weeks suggests the reproduction number is slightly higher than previously reported. The science suggests this is now around 2.6-2.8. The doubling time for ICU patients is estimated to be 3-4 days.

By March 26th they said this about the doubling time: SAGE 19 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 26 March 2020

12. The data suggest a 3.3 day doubling time in hospitals.

And there were finally signs by then that they were actually getting a clue about the timing of some things to expect in future:

32. Assuming good compliance, the epidemic peak in the UK can be expected in April - around 2 weeks after all interventions came into effect.

 

[Humberto]

You aren't readable. it's just walls of text and links and quotes.

 

[Humberto]

A paragraph or two of your own and a link or two.

 

[elbows]

I do my best, it takes hours. I know it doesnt always work out. I cannot retain the level of detail necessary to make my point the way I want to make it if I cut back too much. I'm glad I wont be spending the hours trying in future.

 

[Humberto]

Why not?

 

[BristolEcho]

I do my best, it takes hours. I know it doesnt always work out. I cannot retain the level of detail necessary to make my point the way I want to make it if I cut back too much. I'm glad I wont be spending the hours trying in future.

We really appreciate it.

 

[Numbers]

We really appreciate it.

This elbows

 

[Artaxerxes]

I do my best, it takes hours. I know it doesnt always work out. I cannot retain the level of detail necessary to make my point the way I want to make it if I cut back too much. I'm glad I wont be spending the hours trying in future.

It's perfectly readable for those with an iota of patience and a willingness to learn.

This is complicated stuff.

 

[LDC]

Actually a lot of people with ME are hoping that Covid sufferers get it, cos then they'll have recognition of their illness and a proper research effort. .... If people who've been bedridden for years want the Covid crowd to join them...I can understand that.

Well, they sound like cunts. CF/ME is recognised as an illness, just not as the illness that some people want it to be.

 

[Jay Park]

Can't be confident about what thread, or forum, in which to put this excellent Barry Glendinning article (Saturday Guardian)

But IMO it's a ridiculously brilliant condemnation of 'decisions' to allow the Cheltenham 'Festival' and Liverpool v Atletico at Anfield to go ahead in mid-March
Worry not, sport-averse Urbans -- it's only technically a sport article -- much more political!!

I skipped past that quietly wondering how this is still news

 

[two sheds]

It's perfectly readable for those with an iota of patience and a willingness to learn.

This is complicated stuff.

^^^ Exactly that. It's appreciated elbows

 

[Looby]

You aren't readable. it's just walls of text and links and quotes.

Then skip his posts.

 

[two sheds]

A paragraph or two of your own and a link or two.

The man has spent hundreds of hours studying and summarizing the most serious new development for years to affect all our lives. The internet is full of disinformation and misinformation, and elbows has cut through all that to give incredibly valuable insights making him I'd say the most valuable poster on urban this year. You can't summarize such highly technical information with a paragraph or two and a link or two.

He's already said how wearing he's found it and that he's having to take a break soon for his sanity. Comments like that really aren't going to help. I'm hoping you'll realize this morning how out of place it was.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You aren't readable.

This is pretty rich from you of all people tbh.

 

[Numbers]

The man has spent hundreds of hours studying and summarizing the most serious new development for years to affect all our lives. The internet is full of disinformation and misinformation, and elbows has cut through all that to give incredibly valuable insights making him I'd say the most valuable poster on urban this year. You can't summarize such highly technical information with a paragraph or two and a link or two.

He's already said how wearing he's found it and that he's having to take a break soon for his sanity. Comments like that really aren't going to help. I'm hoping you'll realize this morning how out of place it was.

Bang on the money