two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
And unless the virus shifts from the lungs to the throat in time, a second test wouldn't necessarily give the greater confidence levels a second negative would suggest.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
I must say, I am utterly confused by what's going on atm with regards to a strategy, and also how to evaluate the situation for myself. Until quite recently, I had some ideas about the handling by the goverment (incompetence, evil, poor resourcing of the health service and other public services making a better response impossible, we were in deep shit and I better made sure that I stayed the fuck at home etc etc.) Today it's being reported that the Science and Technology committee levels at the government that "capacity drove strategy, rather than strategy driving capacity", and that rings very true for me from what I have seen.
But still, now I am even more "just what the hell are they playing at for this next phase?" Does the government just want to pretend it's gone away, with the allowance of a few more tests and occasional bits of PPE and social distancing amongst primary age children whatever that might look like, or do they actively want more infections to continue throughout the summer so that those people who have already had it won't get it in the autumn so that the shit won't hit the fan even more then than it will do anyway because they know they will still be woefully unprepared, or are they just as clueless as before..? I am completely at a loss now what to make of it all, and also feel I have no basis for any informed risk assessment for myself any more.
Eta: Just seen the Devi Sridhar article someone linked to, so I am glad I am not alone in my confusion!
But still, now I am even more "just what the hell are they playing at for this next phase?" Does the government just want to pretend it's gone away, with the allowance of a few more tests and occasional bits of PPE and social distancing amongst primary age children whatever that might look like, or do they actively want more infections to continue throughout the summer so that those people who have already had it won't get it in the autumn so that the shit won't hit the fan even more then than it will do anyway because they know they will still be woefully unprepared, or are they just as clueless as before..? I am completely at a loss now what to make of it all, and also feel I have no basis for any informed risk assessment for myself any more.
Eta: Just seen the Devi Sridhar article someone linked to, so I am glad I am not alone in my confusion!
Cid
Proper break this time
Interview with Devi Sridhar
Devi Sridhar: Wealth is the best shielding strategy for this virus - and from severe symptoms
'What struck me is that it’s unclear what the UK Government’s goal is. What is the strategy?'www.telegraph.co.uk
Still can’t get over how odd it is seeing stuff like this in the telegraph... I mean ‘I think here it just came to, probably, British arrogance - that we knew better than WHO’.
And again, the total reliance of this government on one of the most heavily centralised responses in the world.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
It is startling how much we've managed to go from "we've had enough of experts" to "we're following the best (most amazing, absolutely best, so much scientific) advice"
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Arse ...
My neighbour opposite asked me to help him with his bike and I found I couldn't refuse going inside his house
But they seem healthy enough ...
So I can't claim to be disease-free ...
My neighbour opposite asked me to help him with his bike and I found I couldn't refuse going inside his house
But they seem healthy enough ...
So I can't claim to be disease-free ...
Ms Ordinary
randompointlesschemistry
Just heard a Mental Health Awareness type on the radio, quoting research that shows UK has the greatest FOGO (fear of going out / fear of returning to the outside world) of the countries studied.
No shit, maybe it's because most of us have zero confidence that people's lives* matter more than the economy/ wealth generation to the people telling us to get back out there
("Peoples lives" meaning our own, but also & mainly people vulnerable due to age, underlying conditions, poverty, overcrowding... )
No shit, maybe it's because most of us have zero confidence that people's lives* matter more than the economy/ wealth generation to the people telling us to get back out there
("Peoples lives" meaning our own, but also & mainly people vulnerable due to age, underlying conditions, poverty, overcrowding... )
That must have been quite a row he had with the misses. Why the fuck else would you move from New Zealand, a country who seem quite on top of dealing with this, through the US and to the UK.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Not so fast hombre
Coronavirus: Minister says 'wrong' advice at start of COVID-19 outbreak could have led to mistakes
Therese Coffey says "you can only make judgements and decisions based on the information and advice that you have at the time".
news.sky.com
Allbeit cases here are relatively low, I'm avoiding the bus for this reason. Well, I don't have much call to get on one anyway TBF. This is also a big concern regarding when I can next visit my dad, being as it normally involves trains and the tube.
Well they've realised they need to start shifting the blame. See the questions about early response to what unfolded in care homes. As zora mentions, it also now s being openly talked about that the scientific advice was tailored to the political situation. The political situation that has meant fuck all was done in preparing for this in January, the ignoring warnings from Operation Signus and so on. Which if true speaks of a wreking contaminated mess within SAGE.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
UK death toll is now over 44,000 according to ONS figures
The UK has far surpassed coronavirus-struck Italy and Spain to have the highest death toll in Europe, and the world’s second highest after the United States, whose population is nearly five times bigger.
www.metro.co.uk
andysays
Love and solidarity
Ah, OK, I initially thought it meant that the hypothetical Labour govt would reject social distancing, not that the public would reject it if the advice came from a Labour govt...
Just seen on the news is passing that Jeremy Hunt is doing a bit of a mea culpa in regard to pandemic planning. Basically confirming what several people have been saying here which is that all the planning was for a flu epidemic and they'd not really prepared for a sars virus.
Hardly surprising news but at least its a tiny bit of acknowledgement.
Hardly surprising news but at least its a tiny bit of acknowledgement.
Humberto
minor kerfuffles ensue
The uncertainty and consternation caused by Covid-19 has pretty much left us defenseless and shown the ruling class as inadequate bagmen. It has revealed, to an extent, that we ARE all in it together. That ought to change the political landscape and the valuation put on teaching, nursing, refuse collection and so on. Inequality just looks more of a bad joke than ever to more people than for a long time.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yeah but hunt is positioning himself for a potential backlash against the current leadership.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I've said before that I consider it to be a partial red herring though, because I think that their influenza planning would also have been a poor fit for a really bad influenza pandemic, and dont get me started on funding priorities over many years.
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
Surly PPE would have to be at a similarly higher level for any kind of emergency flu or whatever. So, yes red herring.
rekil
to menny cranks
Some sort of non-resident tax dodge ruse was the first thing that came to mind.That must have been quite a row he had with the misses. Why the fuck else would you move from New Zealand, a country who seem quite on top of dealing with this, through the US and to the UK.
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
ONS has announced an excess deaths figure of 55,000. Almost 55,000 excess UK deaths during Covid-19 outbreak, says ONS
If we assume they're all Covid and the national infection rate is 5% we get a Covid mortality rate of 1.6%. Just my silly back of the envelope number, best ignored.
If we assume they're all Covid and the national infection rate is 5% we get a Covid mortality rate of 1.6%. Just my silly back of the envelope number, best ignored.
ska invita
back on the other side
My impression for what it's worth is they are pursuing both of those points above. A bit more protection and a bit more cases so the winter spike isn't quite as high
If you assume that two-thirds of them are the result of COVID actually killing the person and that the infection rate is 8%, you get a death rate of 0.67%.
that’s the problem with back of the envelope calcs. They give you a wide range of possible answers.
that’s the problem with back of the envelope calcs. They give you a wide range of possible answers.
David Clapson
Well-Known Member
The excess deaths figure includes the 44,000 official Covid deaths. So your two thirds assumption is only applied to the other 11,000.
In that case, two-thirds feels a bit fruity. Make it half. So 50,000 deaths. Could be that 10% of the population has been infected, mind — who’s to say what the true figure is? That would make it 0.74%.
Anything in the region of 0.6%-1.2% continues to feel entirely appropriate. And it could comfortably be either side to that too.
Anything in the region of 0.6%-1.2% continues to feel entirely appropriate. And it could comfortably be either side to that too.
SheilaNaGig
Break requested
It feels as if the govt , realising how badly they’ve fucked this up, and with nowhere else to go, are now relying on the public to demonstrate good old fashioned apathy and resignation, a smattering of Blitz spirit, a fall back position of chippyness, and boisterous rebelliousness in order to get people back to “normal”, with the virus sort of hanging around in the background.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
My word I'm reassured by this, signing up for a couple of doses in the morning 
www.theguardian.com
We'll have to wait a while to confirm but this will likely be added to the list of faulty ppe equipment, non-working tests, ...
Buying 16 million tablets before they've been tested
UK bulk buys hydroxychloroquine as potential Covid-19 treatment
Drug taken by Trump being acquired in case it proves effective against coronavirus
We'll have to wait a while to confirm but this will likely be added to the list of faulty ppe equipment, non-working tests, ...
Buying 16 million tablets before they've been tested
Epona
Sonic: 1 Nov 2006 - 8 Jan 2022
My word I'm reassured by this, signing up for a couple of doses in the morning
UK bulk buys hydroxychloroquine as potential Covid-19 treatment
Drug taken by Trump being acquired in case it proves effective against coronavirus
We'll have to wait a while to confirm but this will likely be added to the list of faulty ppe equipment, non-working tests, ...
Buying 16 million tablets before they've been tested
I actually thought that results where it had been used in severe cases looked like it wasn't a goer as a potential treatment
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
I actually thought that results where it had been used in severe cases looked like it wasn't a goer as a potential treatment
Yes me too. Look at Trump for a start
little_legs
Поехали!
LOL, this country is getting chuddier by the dayMy word I'm reassured by this, signing up for a couple of doses in the morning
UK bulk buys hydroxychloroquine as potential Covid-19 treatment
Drug taken by Trump being acquired in case it proves effective against coronavirus
We'll have to wait a while to confirm but this will likely be added to the list of faulty ppe equipment, non-working tests, ...
Buying 16 million tablets before they've been tested
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