I've no doubt that Vallance would if given half a chance, but don't expect him to be. It'll be impossible to shut him up about "herd immunity" if a surveillance and suppression system isn't in place, undoing weeks of government denial and gaslighting. They'll be watching Italy, Spain and France like hawks.
Problem is, though, as we know, that negative results of any easing, if there are any, won't show up for weeks. There is a danger here - those countries that ease are almost bound to see improved results in the first week or two weeks after easing regardless. That's why a clear track and trace system ought to be in place first...
Not as crap as "we're gonna deliberately unleash a virus we know will slaughter 250,000+ to generate 'herd immunity', so take it on the chin, serfs" -- not even Trump managed that, which speaks volumes -- but yes, France had serious shortcomings, which Macron, to his credit, has now acknowledged and apologized for. They're looking to massively step up contact tracing and testing, so have at least learned the right lessons.
Likewise. Apparently it's an "orthodoxy", which by its nature, rests on dogma, not evidence: but that orthodoxy related specifically to influenza, which is why it's crucial to know what lay behind the decision to extend it to a novel SARS virus.
Not as crap in words, but perhaps as crap in action. But yes I saw that from Macron. How long will we have to wait for similar from the UK's clown cabinet?
Absolutely, would be criminally negligent to release the lockdown without one. The first indication's come with the contact tracing app, but that's just one component.
22nd century pencilled in, provisionally ...
2-3 weeks. Maybe 4.
In any epidemiology worth the name, yes; but tragically, not in what passes for the minds of the medical establishment. Including Scotland's chief doctors and public health officials, so goes far beyond Cummings' fanboys. Discovering just how this belief became so entrenched while flying under the RADAR is perhaps the Rosetta that'll unlock the whole sorry mess.
Absolutely. What data did "the science" (for which I read, "the magisterium") employ to advise uncontrolled spread of SARS-CoV-2? Was there anything specific, or did they just work off the influenza plan?Epidemiology is one of the things I have a tangential link to some kind of background in, that's maybe influencing me, but the first thing you need in order to base ANYTHING on has to be the immunology data, surely?
Take those reports with a generous pinch of scepticism, though. I've no doubt that they are happening, but they are being highlighted in the press a) because it makes a good story, and b) because these stories are being fed to the press in order perhaps to discipline us and, I increasingly suspect, as a diversion tactic to distract from the govt's failures in the face of terrible death rates. Headlines about reckless parties are far preferable to the govt than headlines about its incompetence.
They're certainly useful to those who want to obfuscate, and I'm ignoring nonsense about hikers alone in national parks, but police did report (going from memory) over a hundred house parties broken up in one city. There's been similar reports of tensions in other countries with lockdowns. That, along with the fact that not even China tried to keep it going for more than a few months indicates that lockdown's not a long-term solution, but an emergency measure to get those solutions in place.
Hmmm. If you're referring to reports a few days ago from Manchester, that's a classic case in point. The Manchester Police's numbers were about house parties reported to them (so how many people phoned in with complaints about noisy neighbours). By the time it made it to the front page of the BBC's website, the headline had magically transformed this into the police having broken up that number of parties. It wasn't true.
Of course, it wasn't evidence based, it was dogma, but that dogma didn't just come from Cummings' fevered imagination, it was given to him by the government's medical and scientific advisors, apparently as the only option. (There's no indication they even suggested a containment and viral elimination plan.)
This is GMP'S report from before the Easter weekend, which of course depends on how they're defining house parties (insert irreverent answers here!).
Yep that's it. Complete misreporting by the BBC. 'reports of' not 'breaking up'. There was another article on the same thing in the Manchester local press that gave the same figures and gave a similar misrepresentation of them, although not quite as blatant as the BBC's spin.
Hancock announced this automatic contact tracing app in yesterday's presser, which is clearly modelled on South Korea's and Singapore's. Crucial that it's joined to other measures and boots on the ground -- could just see them trying to trace on the cheap -- but it's a start.
