Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

I don't know when parliament will resume sitting, perhaps in the chamber it may be some way off if social distancing is to be observed and therefore too late to hold government to account in real time. After all this no doubt there will be public enquiries and the like, but the horse will have bolted by then.

'Hybrid' virtual parliament plans to be put to MPs next week

MPs likely to be able to speak in Commons via video conferencing technology under plans

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

If masks didn't have an effect, in both directions, ICU staff would not be wearing them.

The issue remains, where can the public obtain suitable masks easily enough so that it does not limit supplies to the NHS and it permits it to be a requirement for the population to have to wear them when out of their houses.

Broadly speaking we are talking about a different standard of mask for the public. Some countries do seem to have have used supplies of basic masks like surgical masks, not N95 level stuff. Others are talking about a far more DIY approach, eg the USA.

The orthodox approach involved denying the usefulness of such measures. But that orthodoxy also tended to rely on asymptomatic/pre-symptomatic cases not being an important transmission vector, and all that thinking is out of the window now, so masks for the public are very much on the agenda.

 

[weltweit]

Broadly speaking we are talking about a different standard of mask for the public. Some countries do seem to have have used supplies of basic masks like surgical masks, not N95 level stuff. Others are talking about a far more DIY approach, eg the USA.

Yes, I know

My belief is national government and WHO level organisations sitting on the fence as regards masks are doing so out of the practical reason that there are not enough masks to go around [1] rather than the medical reason which is that my mask protects you and your mask protects me etc ..

[1] not enough for medical staff and the general public

 

[Azrael]

I see Nassim Taleb has taken up public use of masks as a personal crusade. Given all the double talk about it, I'm not surprised.

A modest suggestion to immediately improve our science: any scientist who even implies the concept of orthodoxy, let alone uses the word in relation to their discipline, is immediately converted to a doctor of theology and packed off to the church. We'd all be much happier.

 

[agricola]

I see Nassim Taleb has taken up public use of masks as a personal crusade. Given all the double talk about it, I'm not surprised.

A modest suggestion to immediately improve our science: any scientist who even implies the concept of orthodoxy, let alone uses the word in relation to their discipline, is immediately converted to a doctor of theology and packed off to the church. We'd all be much happier.

If there is one thing the world has never needed any more of, its doctors of theology. The only advance that theology has ever made is that nowadays books like The City of God can be printed small enough to carry but the text ensures they are dense enough to be thrown at theologists accurately.

 

[tim]

Many more lives are being lost in the lockdown than is being admitted by the government. We are all going to lose at least six weeks of our lives as if we had been thrown in jail. That is 0.15% of our entire life, given that life expectancy is around 80 years. There are about 70 million people in the UK, so that is a total of 100,000 lives lost or about five times more lives than are likely to be lost to Covid-19. It might be argued that these are not the same kind of lives. That is true: the 100,000 are all full eighty-year lives whereas many of the Covid-19 victims are people nearing the ends of their lives. It is also accurate to say that there might have been up to 250,000 deaths from Covid-19 in the absence of any measures, but only a fool would advocate no measures at all. However, 99% of all deaths are among the 20% of the population in identified high-risk groups, so up to 99% of any further fatal infections could be avoided by only sheltering the high-risk groups. And this measure could be bolstered by widespread testing in the community as pioneered with great success by Germany. Not only would the 100,000 lost lives from the lockdown itself be avoided, but the high-risk groups are not very economically active, so much of the economic damage could be averted. Ironically, this was the government’s original policy and the fact that the death rate is already flattening is strong evidence that it would have succeeded, since it takes 4 weeks for the death rate to respond to measures and it was the isolation of high-risk groups (only) that happened 4 weeks ago. An economic depression will impoverish and kill millions. There needs to be balance in policy.

Fuck off and fellate Toby Young.

 

[Azrael]

Needs must agricola , the Strangeloves would do infinitely less damage debating the soft shoe shuffle of angels with Welby. You'd hope.

 

[elbows]

Yes, I know

My belief is national government and WHO level organisations sitting on the fence as regards masks are doing so out of the practical reason that there are not enough masks to go around [1] rather than the medical reason which is that my mask protects you and your mask protects me etc ..

[1] not enough for medical staff and the general public

Hence the emphasis on DIY solutions. The traditional orthodox approach was a mixture of supply issues/costs combined with 'cultural reasons' why masks were considered a no-no. You are right to expect this to evolve as the practical equations change and old attitudes evaporate.

 

[agricola]

Needs must agricola , the Strangeloves would do infinitely less damage debating the soft shoe shuffle of angels with Welby. You'd hope.

Vainly hope, I fear. Look at the Romans; nearly 900-years of theology-free success and then all gone once people started to make forty-year lucrative careers out of debating things that they told everyone else were unknowable.

The Dark Age collapse in the West must have come as a relief initially, until people found out that theologists were the one group of people who managed to survive relatively intact.

 

[William of Walworth]

I don't think these slices of investigation has been linked to yet??

Documents contradict UK Government stance on Covid-19 'herd immunity'

This second article is actually the more detailed one

They relate to NHSX (NHS's digital planning department) working with "Faculty, a British artificial intelligence company" -- the articles are mainly about use of NHS data.

Some very interesting stuff -- well worth a read.

(Rob Evans** [correction : Paul Lewis!!] is pretty good at investigations, as is David Conn)

(**Rob Evans is pretty good as well though)

 

[Azrael]

I don't think these slices of investigation has been linked to yet??

Documents contradict UK Government stance on Covid-19 'herd immunity'

This second article is actually the more detailed one

They relate to NHSX (NHS's digital planning department) working with "Faculty, a British artificial intelligence company" -- the articles are mainly about use of NHS data.

Some very interesting stuff -- well worth a read.

(Rob Evans is pretty good at investigations, as is David Conn)

A toxic brew of the medical establishment's obsession with "herd immunity" and big data shortcomings that've dogged Whitehall for decades.

Key to any investigation will be discovering why Vallance and Whitty decided SARS-CoV-2 was a suitable candidate for uncontrolled spread and "herd immunity". We know an old flu plan was repurposed, but why did they make that decision for this specific disease? It wouldn't apply to every disease. Not even a freak like Vallance would've countenanced uncontrolled spread of, say, Ebola, nor MERS. I doubt they'd have done it with the original SARS either. So what made its successor different in their eyes?

 

[William of Walworth]

And a new article by Paul Lewis, about tracing apps :

NHS coronavirus app : memo discussed giving ministers power to 'de-anonymise' users

Bit too technical for me, but interesting nevertheless ......

 

[Azrael]

This is situation where you really need a government that's transparent and subject to rigorous safeguards, 'cause identifying individuals to quarantine will be essential.

Unfortunately we have them.

 

[2hats]

And a new article by Paul Lewis, about tracing apps :

the memo explained how an NHS app could work, using Bluetooth LE, a standard feature that runs constantly and automatically on all mobile devices

Er.., no.

Ross Anderson, a professor of security engineering at Cambridge University, recently wrote that “anyone who’s worked on abuse will instantly realise that a voluntary app operated by anonymous actors is wide open to trolling”.

Good ol' Ross. Raspberry Pi and a handful of lines of Python, anyone?

 

[William of Walworth]

Er.., no.

I did warn that the article was a bit too technical for me
Still worth a read though, I'd say.

 

[William of Walworth]

Last article to quote here, for now, I promise!
It's just that The Guardian was quite investigation-heavy today.
This one concerns PPE (and other) shortages :

Revealed : value of UK pandemic stockpile fell by 40% in six years
£325m wiped off value of health department’s emergency stockpile including PPE

 

[Proper Tidy]

Seen this William?

Coronavirus: What's happening to the beer left in pubs?

Millions of pints of ale and lager could be lost if pub closures last into the summer.

bbc.in

 

[two sheds]

Seen this William?

Coronavirus: What's happening to the beer left in pubs?

Millions of pints of ale and lager could be lost if pub closures last into the summer.

bbc.in

I phoned the local pub today to ask whether it was a problem they were having and if so do they deliver flagons?

It's Easter Monday though so they didn't answer

 

[William of Walworth]

Seen this William?

Coronavirus: What's happening to the beer left in pubs?

Millions of pints of ale and lager could be lost if pub closures last into the summer.

bbc.in

No-- completely new to me that story!
It's a pretty good one, loads of detail

We were aware of the issue in general, because we talk online with a couple of people in the trade, but we didn't know the scale of this ......

I hope no breweries go bust.
Except shite ones

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No-- completely new to me that story!
It's a pretty good one, loads of detail

We were aware of the issue in general, because we talk online with a couple of people in the trade, but we didn't know the scale of this ......

I hope no breweries go bust.
Except shite ones

The shite ones would survive a nuclear winter. You'll see. Greene King will take over every pub in the country.

 

[8ball]

Anyone have any feelings on when we'll likely see an easing of the lockdown?

 

[Azrael]

The shite ones would survive a nuclear winter. You'll see. Greene King will take over every pub in the country.

And Brew Dog did make that hand gel ...

 

[8ball]

And Brew Dog did make that hand gel ...

I can't diss them for that, myself.

 

[Azrael]

Anyone have any feelings on when we'll likely see an easing of the lockdown?

When cases and mortality are in decline, and when alternative suppressive measures are in place.*

* If Vallance is pig headed enough to disregard these and attempt to sell Britain his "herd immunity" snake oil a second time, don't expect him to stay Chief Scientist for much longer.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anyone have any feelings on when we'll likely see an easing of the lockdown?

Not till the start of May at the earliest, I would have thought. One advantage the UK has in being behind most others is that they can see the results of other countries' easing (although it will take a few weeks for those results to become apparent, tbf). But Austria and Spain are easing up a little this week, Switzerland plans to ease in two weeks if all goes well, I'd expect Germany to ease soon as well if their good numbers continue.

It will be interesting to see how the atmosphere changes as this happens.

 

[8ball]

When cases and mortality are in decline, and when alternative suppressive measures are in place.*

* If Vallance is pig headed enough to disregard these and attempt to sell Britain his "herd immunity" snake oil a second time, don't expect him to stay Chief Scientist for much longer.

I wasn't getting the sense they would go down this route personally.
I think a lot of eyes will be on how things go down in Spain.

 

[Azrael]

I can't diss them for that, myself.

Me neither, I'll skip the beer but gladly use their alcohol to combat Covid.

 

[8ball]

Not till the start of May at the earliest, I would have thought. One advantage the UK has in being behind most others is that they can see the results of other countries' easing (although it will take a few weeks for those results to become apparent, tbf). But Austria and Spain are easing up a little this week, Switzerland plans to ease in two weeks if all goes well, I'd expect Germany to ease soon as well if their good numbers continue.

It will be interesting to see how the atmosphere changes as this happens.

I thought I was getting ahead of things but the start of May would still surprise me.
I guess there is a lot of data-gathering going on re: what small risks would be worthwhile.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

When cases and mortality are in decline, and when alternative suppressive measures are in place.*

* If Vallance is pig headed enough to disregard these and attempt to sell Britain his "herd immunity" snake oil a second time, don't expect him to stay Chief Scientist for much longer.

Sustained reduction in hospitalised cases is the best measure for the UK, I would suggest, given the paucity of meaning in current UK testing figures. That's where we are in a bad place compared to others - as Germany's new cases reduce, or Switzerland's, or Italy's for that matter, they can be confident that means something, and can combine it with other indicators to have confidence where they're at.

France has been shite about testing as well. Don't think it's a coincidence that France plans a longer and harder lockdown. I don't know the details of France's response, but it sounds like they've been as crap as the UK.

 

[8ball]

Me neither, I'll skip the beer but gladly use their alcohol to combat Covid.

They can keep their alcohol, but I think Nanny State is the best thing out there with practically none of it in.