Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

They've now been left with roughly three short term choices: indefinite lockdown until a vaccine's available, which if it's even possible, would be socially, medically and economically ruinous; go back to generating "herd immunity" via rolling lockdowns, with the attendant death toll; or attempting an open suppression strategy like Germany's or South Korea's.Don't see a way in which even the most ruthless politician would be able to pull off "herd immunity" in this fashion, leaving only suppression, however incompetently they go about it.

I expect them to pick option two while pretending to do option three.
...leading them to have to go back to #1 as the death toll rises.
 
But yes treelover, if you can't get registered on gov.uk here:

I'd suggest emailing who ever you can at the supermarkets in question.

You may find your council has set up a volunteer scheme to help people who can't go out as well.

Yes to volunteer scheme. Also could try registering as vulnerable on that government website, perhaps contacting your doctor for a reference if that's needed. As treelover says you're somewhat vulnerable if you can't see properly to do social distancing.
 
It was acknowledged in the press conference today that the basic reproductive number of the virus should be below 1 in the community now, but that they do not assume the same for hospitals or care homes.
 
Vallance was asked about masks for the public (to stop asymptomatic people spreading it) and his response was that it is currently in review. Some tentative signs of a shift there.
And (for once) they were also asked about South Korea. They offered evasive answers to both questions.
 
It was acknowledged in the press conference today that the basic reproductive number of the virus should be below 1 in the community now, but that they do not assume the same for hospitals or care homes.
Yes. It will vary with different isolation/lockdown measures, circumstances and attitudes to them. So it will vary geographically sub-nationally and across different environments (as a consequence). Relax the restrictions and it will climb again.
 
Which countries are attempting to do that?
To date, SFAIK, just New Zealand, although there's heavy lobbying for it in Australia. If both succeeded, and if Asian countries that took action fast also pursue the policy, I expect to see more interest shown in Europe. It'd require a coordinated plan, but if it can be done, would beat constant domestic surveillance until a vaccine's available.
 
Yes. It will vary with different isolation/lockdown measures, circumstances and attitudes to them. So it will vary geographically sub-nationally and across different environments (as a consequence). Relax the restrictions and it will climb again.

Yes, and it was known before the epidemic here got going that care homes and hospitals would be vulnerable, and that infection control in those environments was important (and that we were ill equipped to score highly on this front). Higher R0's in hospitals and care homes long after the R0 has fallen elsewhere is an implicit acknowledgement of this.
 
In fact it is strange Vallance has South Korea on his chart of deaths if he isn't prepared to respond to questions about it. There are plenty of other countries that aren't on the chart - he could have just left SK out but he didn't and yet he declines to comment on it?
"No comment."
 
In fact it is strange Vallance has South Korea on his chart of deaths if he isn't prepared to respond to questions about it. There are plenty of other countries that aren't on the chart - he could have just left SK out but he didn't and yet he declines to comment on it?

I only listen to Vallance if I want clues about current establishment thinking and areas where there are signs of a shift in rhetoric/thinking/policy.

If I wanted a proper answer that touched on testing, contact tracing, isolation, and a completely different standard of infection control in hospitals in South Korea, I would be more likely to get that from Whitty. He will very occasionally go into such realms, if asked the right question, but its still very sporadic with a degree of political calculation. So I wouldnt often expect all that much from Whitty either and the question has to be given a medical angle to make it to him instead of Vallance in the first place.
 
I am coming to the conclusion the daily No 10 briefings (most of which I have watched) are just an exercise for the restating of current advice, stay home, protect the NHS and save lives! It usually takes them approaching an hour to restate that multiple times and they use the excuse of any tricky question to just repeat the statement rather than address the detail of the question.
 
I am coming to the conclusion the daily No 10 briefings (most of which I have watched) are just an exercise for the restating of current advice, stay home, protect the NHS and save lives! It usually takes them approaching an hour to restate that multiple times and they use the excuse of any tricky question to just repeat the statement rather than address the detail of the question.
And setting up scapegoats for the blame game down the road. Vallance, the very stable genius who openly promoted the "herd immunity" policy, is particularly useful for this, although in recent days even he appears to have realized it'd be wise to start spinning for all he's worth. Too late, Pat, much too late.
 
He's always been spinning, thats part of the problem. Its the underlying equations, assumptions and policies that have changed, and that has an effect on the nature of the spin. I dont expect him to change, if he made a habit of farting in the direction of sacred cows then he probably wouldnt have become a Sir in the first place.
 
To date, SFAIK, just New Zealand, although there's heavy lobbying for it in Australia. If both succeeded, and if Asian countries that took action fast also pursue the policy, I expect to see more interest shown in Europe. It'd require a coordinated plan, but if it can be done, would beat constant domestic surveillance until a vaccine's available.
Whilst their final level is called 'Eliminate', is that practical? Seems more aspirational ..
 
Vallance is belatedly spinning (Whitty's better at this), but only after he laid out "herd immunity" in excruciating detail on camera. No one with an ounce of political skill would ever have been so explicit, which is why Hancock denied it was government policy a few days after it was announced via the scientists and medics.
 
Whilst their final level is called 'Eliminate', is that practical? Seems more aspirational ..

It seems to be a response thing rather than a final stage... i.e if shit gets really bad, they do the stuff under the 'eliminate' heading.

e2a: so eliminate is kind of defcon 1. If there's sustained and nationwide spread, they go to Level 4 in an attempt to eliminate as much spread as possible. Full lockdown... Well, looks a little less harsh than some, but probably the most strict measures aren't as needed given their population density etc.
 
Last edited:
Whilst their final level is called 'Eliminate', is that practical? Seems more aspirational ..
It's certainly aspirational, but given their geography and low case numbers, ought to be a realistic goal. We should remember that the original SARS was eliminated from multiple countries by these methods. Its successor has of course spread much further, but where its elimination's practical, it should be pursued with all we have.
 
Vallance is belatedly spinning (Whitty's better at this), but only after he laid out "herd immunity" in excruciating detail on camera. No one with an ounce of political skill would ever have been so explicit, which is why Hancock denied it was government policy a few days after it was announced via the scientists and medics.

TBF there are plenty of people who claim to have political skill currently going around saying herd immunity was never the policy, often right before suggesting herd immunity is the only way out of this crisis.
 
A little more on todays signs of an evolving stance on masks:

The UK's chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance told the daily Downing Street news conference an ongoing review was considering the guidance on whether people should wear face masks.

Asked by the BBC's David Shukman whether the government could change its advice to the British public on wearing face masks while outside, Sir Patrick said that, if evidence supported it, the guidance could change.

He added that the government had already seen "more persuasive" data suggesting masks can stop a person passing the virus to someone else, rather than preventing them from catching it.

 
The press briefings are treating us the public like fools, that all we can take in is the most simple of immediate instructions and we don't qualify as discerning enough for the full picture of the virus and our actions against it both past, now and the future.

I have read in South Korea and New Zealand government is being much more transparent with their populations. However I have only read this, I haven't seen it in action. If we are to believe our own politicians at these briefings we can only see as far as next week and they have not made a mistake, however small, permitted a hospital to run out of PPE, started with the wrong policy, whatever, perhaps they are insulated because they don't have the opposition questioning them in parliament.

I don't know when parliament will resume sitting, perhaps in the chamber it may be some way off if social distancing is to be observed and therefore too late to hold government to account in real time. After all this no doubt there will be public enquiries and the like, but the horse will have bolted by then.
 
A little more on todays signs of an evolving stance on masks:
If masks didn't have an effect, in both directions, ICU staff would not be wearing them.

The issue remains, where can the public obtain suitable masks easily enough so that it does not limit supplies to the NHS and it permits it to be a requirement for the population to have to wear them when out of their houses.
 
Back
Top Bottom