I'm guessing the London School of Tropical Medicine have a better understanding of how this stuff works than anyone here, so if they say those are realistic figures, they're realistic figures. Big, but realistic.I get his general point about unreliable numbers, but are those projected (and bolded) figures for deaths realistic???
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Cid : I was only going on the figures posted above (in my post #6559, they'd been put up earlier in Buddy Bradley 's post).
ETA : And thanks for those population percentages, which (on a very quick read/headcount) do suggest the Wales and Scotland are a lot lower .... who knows why
One possibility is that they are earlier in their epidemics. But that also implies that lockdowns and the other previous measures happened at an earlier phase of their epidemics, which should end up making a difference to the total number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths there.
For example, on the day that England reached 99 recorded/reported hospital deaths, Wales had only had 2 at that point, Scotland 3, and Northern Ireland was a day away from reporting its first.
It can also be helpful to look at England broken down into broad regions, so you can see the epidemics varying a bit along those lines too. I will post some numbers later.
elbows
Well-Known Member
They try to come up with realistic ranges, and people inevitably focus on the ones at the most dramatic end of the range.
All the same...
little_legs
Поехали!
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
Cumming's Uncle has died of it.
www.theguardian.com
Retired judge and Cummings' uncle Sir John Laws dies after contracting Covid-19
Relative of No 10 adviser hailed as ‘one of the greatest lawyers of his generation’
phillm
Trolling through Life (TM)
The Guardian was told last week that Johnson was more seriously ill than either he or his officials were prepared to admit, and that he was being seen by doctors who were concerned about his breathing.
www.theguardian.com
Boris Johnson admitted to hospital with coronavirus
Move follows rumours that prime minister’s condition had been worsening
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I’ll change my name by deed poll to ‘Mr X-ray’ so I get to have the supermarket to myself when my hour comes up.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
The Guardian was told last week that Johnson was more seriously ill than either he or his officials were prepared to admit, and that he was being seen by doctors who were concerned about his breathing.
Boris Johnson admitted to hospital with coronavirus
Move follows rumours that prime minister’s condition had been worsening
I've been concerned about him breathing for a while now .
Just you and Xavier/a and Xanthippe.
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
I think we are probably at the start of our curve as it were, and also we have far more access to open space- nowhere in Scotland is really on a par with London, not even Glasgow, not by a long shot. I’m not sure about Wales, 1 it’s not typically a point of entry from the continent right?Cid : I was only going on the figures posted above (in my post #6559, they'd been put up earlier in Buddy Bradley 's post).
ETA : And thanks for those population percentages, which (on a very quick read/headcount) do suggest the Wales and Scotland are a lot lower .... who knows why
Confirmed cases in Orkney only popped up at the start of this week, then began rising. 5 now. Shetland had a couple arrive from Italy and there were ten confirmed cases before they decided to stop testing.
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
It seems strange that people in London are surprised that there’s lots of people outside. If you are only going out for essentials, that’s a lot of people. When they stopped people driving to exercise, that’s when I started meeting 15 people if I set off on foot from a council estate in Orkney. Would have been safer for us to drive out to the back o beyond.
Everyone following these rules to letter =high chance of seeing someone whilst out on foot.
Everyone following these rules to letter =high chance of seeing someone whilst out on foot.
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
And I do wonder if B.I.G is someone that’s taking up delivery slots that could
Do a 12 week isolator. Because from doing mutual aid stuff in a remote place for a couple a weeks, I can tell you that’s a conversation we could do with fucking having. *throws judgemental hat in ring”
Do a 12 week isolator. Because from doing mutual aid stuff in a remote place for a couple a weeks, I can tell you that’s a conversation we could do with fucking having. *throws judgemental hat in ring”
And I do wonder if B.I.G is someone that’s taking up delivery slots that could
Do a 12 week isolator. Because from doing mutual aid stuff in a remote place for a couple a weeks, I can tell you that’s a conversation we could do with fucking having. *throws judgemental hat in ring”
I walk down to the local butcher / baker / greengrocer when I need to replenish the fridge.
Lots of people wishing BJ dead. Im not in the minority anymore.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
London has areas with the densest population of anywhere in the UK, so not surprising there will be proportionally more people out within an area. Also will have contributed to the spread.
I’m wondering if there is less spread in Wales/Scotland and west of the country because the weather has been so shit until recently, so people might have stayed in more too. I know London and the east of the country is generally drier, could have made a small difference. Hasn’t been that nice a weekend here in Bristol, some sunshine but still quite cool and the wind harsh today. Saw a few people out on the downs when I did a bike ride earlier (50 mins only, forum nazis) but well spaced. Enjoying the empty roads.
I’m wondering if there is less spread in Wales/Scotland and west of the country because the weather has been so shit until recently, so people might have stayed in more too. I know London and the east of the country is generally drier, could have made a small difference. Hasn’t been that nice a weekend here in Bristol, some sunshine but still quite cool and the wind harsh today. Saw a few people out on the downs when I did a bike ride earlier (50 mins only, forum nazis) but well spaced. Enjoying the empty roads.
Treacle Toes
Time
I have caused outrage to some in my local area and on a local FB group by drawing a fucking hopscotch outside my place for people to have a little fun with as they walk up or down the road to shops or park... I have encouraged others to do the same regardless and pointed out that as a key worker I still have to go to work and am at more risk by having to commute by train and bus/mix with colleagues etc...
I have discovered private messages from strangers with memes of 'STAY AT HOME< SAVE LIVES' despite the fact it's not a main road. People do not congregate, they simply hop, jump, hop and go on their way. I will keep doing this...it's making people smile, laugh, mostly used by adults.
Septimus Rufiji
🍺 🥴 🤮
missed a bit of a trick by not making it a spunking cock, though
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
I have caused outrage to some in my local area and on a local FB group by drawing a fucking hopscotch outside my place for people to have a little fun with as they walk up or down the road to shops or park... I have encouraged others to do the same regardless and pointed out that as a key worker I still have to go to work and am at more risk by having to commute by train and bus/mix with colleagues etc...
View attachment 205136
I have discovered private messages from strangers with memes of 'STAY AT HOME< SAVE LIVES' despite the fact it's not a main road. People do not congregate, they simply hop, jump, hop and go on their way. I will keep doing this...it's making people smile, laugh, mostly used by adults.
they're clearly concerned about people giving themselves coronavirus by breathing over themselves playing hopscotch
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
I have caused outrage to some in my local area and on a local FB group by drawing a fucking hopscotch outside my place for people to have a little fun with as they walk up or down the road to shops or park... I have encouraged others to do the same regardless and pointed out that as a key worker I still have to go to work and am at more risk by having to commute by train and bus/mix with colleagues etc...
View attachment 205136
I have discovered private messages from strangers with memes of 'STAY AT HOME< SAVE LIVES' despite the fact it's not a main road. People do not congregate, they simply hop, jump, hop and go on their way. I will keep doing this...it's making people smile, laugh, mostly used by adults.
Treacle Toes
Time
Treacle Toes
Time
elbows
Well-Known Member
The numbers I mentioned I would share earlier. I've shared these before but this is the latest version. Sorry about the various holes in the data. Date that deaths were reported is not indicative of actual date of death. Other disclaimers may apply.
One of my sources for the data is this page going into deaths per hospital trust and region in England. It includes a graph that shows deaths per region over time, adjusted so it shows deaths per 100,000 of the population.
www.hsj.co.uk
One of my sources for the data is this page going into deaths per hospital trust and region in England. It includes a graph that shows deaths per region over time, adjusted so it shows deaths per 100,000 of the population.
Hospital deaths falling at fastest rate yet
Deaths from covid-19 in England's hospitals are declining at the fastest rate yet, as the whole South West region sees one death in seven days.
www.hsj.co.uk
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David Clapson
Well-Known Member
I don't wish to be premature, but where can I buy fireworks for the next traditional Windrush Square celebration to honour a late Conservative Prime Minister?
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
| The Hobbit Kingdom of Middle Earth?? |
HoratioCuthbert
Deep seated inconsequence
Haha! Awesome. I’m a keyworker too. I’m perhaps evilly glad that my only son will have kids joining him after Easter as our school becomes a “west mainland hub” - prior to our school being opened for only him!I have caused outrage to some in my local area and on a local FB group by drawing a fucking hopscotch outside my place for people to have a little fun with as they walk up or down the road to shops or park... I have encouraged others to do the same regardless and pointed out that as a key worker I still have to go to work and am at more risk by having to commute by train and bus/mix with colleagues etc...
View attachment 205136
I have discovered private messages from strangers with memes of 'STAY AT HOME< SAVE LIVES' despite the fact it's not a main road. People do not congregate, they simply hop, jump, hop and go on their way. I will keep doing this...it's making people smile, laugh, mostly used by adults.
Social isolation on my own I find easy, imposing it on a kid, heartbreaking, I feel that we are lucky I am a carer to be honest. I’ve managed to not flout lockdown rules outside of what I do. But I honestly feel for people who are confined to the house most days
Great stuff 
apple.news
Coronavirus: Former F1 boss Ron Dennis paying for one million free meals for NHS workers — The Independent
Former McLaren boss has launched the SaluthetheNHS.org initiative to provide free meals for those on the frontline battling to combat the coronavirus pandemic
gentlegreen
I hummus, therefore I am ...
Some went off in Bristol 5 last night at 20.15..
Raheem
Well-Known Member
The cop in the picture is writing something down. Forming a halo just above his hat, we see 'Holy Words' in Latinised Hebrew. This ticket is clearly personally sanctioned by the Almighty, and I'm not sure you know what you're messing with.
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Mine are doing the same here.
Over the weekend, Cycling UK started offering 3 month free membership to nhs workers also.
bimble
floofy
oh. there are thousands of people trained and skilled in doing exactly this but nobody asked them to do it.
UK missed coronavirus contact tracing opportunity, experts say
Thousands of council workers could have been deployed by the government but were not asked
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