Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[CH1]

Is there any point in taking the next Covid jab at the £13m "cathedral for GPs" (ie Ackerman Health Centre - private appointments ARE available).
After all the FREE SPEECH part of Govt - OFCOM - happily licence GB News to peddle covid conspiracies.
Maybe the Ackerman and the new annual Covid injection are one of them?
If not you can look forward to receiving my next post from beyond the grave!

 

[elbows]

The NHS England hospital data came out. It confirms the trend that was just starting to be seen in last weeks data, there is another wave as far as admissions and number of people with covid in hospital beds goes.

In hospital beds (data goes up to September 27th):


Daily admissions/diagnoses (data goes up to September 26th):


Made using data from spreadsheets at Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[two sheds]

are the peaks in the top graph new variants?

 

[2hats]

English COVID-19 hospital admissions are now clearly back into a two-week doubling phase.

 

[elbows]

are the peaks in the top graph new variants?

The graph as a whole covers the Delta and Omicron waves era.

The three most prominent peaks were our Omicron waves so far. Emergence and rise to domination of new varieties of Omicron is a very major factor in the wave dynamics and timing. Policies/human behaviour, school holiday timings, and waning immunity can also contribute to wave timing.

A somewhat simple story of the different versions of Omicron arriving and dominating could probably be used to describe those peaks, but the picture of Omicron variants is somewhat messier than with previous variants and I dont like to forget to mention those other factors in my previous paragraph.

 

[elbows]

Here is a variant graph from a UK government variant surveillance paper to add some proper substance to my answer. Things line up reasonably well so I could probably just have answered you with a simple yes previously, but thats not really my style.

Also note that as the testing regime has changed in this country, been scaled back, the quantity of genomic sampling has declined notably. Right now a whole bunch of further Omicron variants are vying for dominance, and the picture is a bit messy, and the reduced amount of testing and genomic sequencing really doesnt help a clear picture to emerge quickly. Anyway this latest chapter in regards which Omicron variants will feature strongly in the latest wave is not reflected in the graphic below at all.



From https://assets.publishing.service.g...3869/Technical-Briefing-45-9September2022.pdf

 

[two sheds]

interesting, ta

 

[2hats]

Also worth pointing out that in an extant wave the apparent dominant variant may actually later be (often is) refined to be composed of key sub-lineages that just haven't been identified or classified yet. For example, right now a rapidly growing proportion of that BA.5 is actually various BE/BF/BQ/BU/BV/BW.x (in particular BQ.1[.x]) along with some BA.5.x[.x].

 

[elbows]

By the way since in the past I have sometimes pointed out that Scotland was ahead with the progress of most waves, likely in part down to earlier school holiday timing, I should mention that this wave has not evolved in a straightforward way for Scotland. Because unlike what the likes of ZOE and hospital admissions are showing for England and its regions, Scotlands rise in apparent cases was not sustained so far, they started to get a rise with earlier timing than England, but then there was a fall and its not clear what will happen next there.

 

[elbows]

Shaun Lintern has been mentioning other hospital incidents on twitter, similar to the Grimsby stuff the other day:







He also has this:

 

[elbows]

I may as well mention hospital-acquired covid infections again. Someone has some charts. Given that I think this has been a big issue all throughout the pandemics waves, and that various measures which can detect and reduce this stuff have been removed, I wont be surprised if it is especially bad this time.

 

[elbows]

And when other people produce those numbers, it gives me more confidence to publish my own charts on that subject. Because coming up with those figures requires subtracting some published figures from some other published figures, and I'm not always confident that I've done it right. But if I add up the 7 days worth of most recent figures I calculated for this I get the same numbers as she did, so I will show my chart which stretches back to the 2nd wave. Data goes up to September 26th.

 

[gosub]

England sees surge in COVID-19 hospital admissions in latest week

Much of the surge is driven by coronavirus acquired in hospital, the figures show.

www.politico.eu

 

[quimcunx]

Someone mentioned to me something about a new study of people who have never had covid but I can't find anything. Anyone know anything?

 

[Yossarian]

Someone mentioned to me something about a new study of people who have never had covid but I can't find anything. Anyone know anything?

This one?

This summer, Hollenbach and her colleagues demonstrated that, with a specific mutation in HLA, some people have T cells that are already pre-programmed to recognize and fight off SARS-CoV-2. So there's no delay in generating COVID-specfic weaponry. It's already there.

"Your immune response and these T cells fire up much more quickly [than in a person without the HLA mutation]," Hollenbach says. "So for lack of a better term, you basically nuke the infection before you even start to have symptoms."

But here's the kicker. For the HLA mutation to work (and for you to have these pre-armed T cells), you first had to have been infected with another coronavirus.

"Most of us have been exposed to some common cold coronavirus at some point in life," she explains. And we all generate T cells to fight off these colds. But if you also have this mutation in your HLA, Hollenbach says, then just by mere luck, these T cells you make can also fight off SARS-CoV-2.

"It's definitely luck," she says. "But, you know, this mutation is quite common. We estimate that maybe 1 in 10 people have it. And in people who are asymptomatic, that rises to 1 in 5."

 

[2hats]

There are several studies underway. Almost certainly there are genetic factors which predispose some cohorts to being less likely to develop COVID-19, or even able to abort infection. HLA† and CCR5‡ have been shown to be two such factors. However these can be a double-edged sword - for example the same gene expression that affords HIV-1 protection appears to predispose the subject to elevated COVID-19 risk. Likely particular patterns of historic sarbecovirus antigenic exposure also play a role.
† DOI:10.1073/pnas.2116435119
‡ DOI:10.1016/j.coi.2022.102178

The Mystery of Why Some People Don’t Get Covid

A small number of people appear naturally immune to the coronavirus. Scientists think they might hold the key to helping protect us all.

www.wired.co.uk

 

[Storm Fox]

This one?

This summer, Hollenbach and her colleagues demonstrated that, with a specific mutation in HLA, some people have T cells that are already pre-programmed to recognize and fight off SARS-CoV-2. So there's no delay in generating COVID-specfic weaponry. It's already there.

"Your immune response and these T cells fire up much more quickly [than in a person without the HLA mutation]," Hollenbach says. "So for lack of a better term, you basically nuke the infection before you even start to have symptoms."

But here's the kicker. For the HLA mutation to work (and for you to have these pre-armed T cells), you first had to have been infected with another coronavirus.

"Most of us have been exposed to some common cold coronavirus at some point in life," she explains. And we all generate T cells to fight off these colds. But if you also have this mutation in your HLA, Hollenbach says, then just by mere luck, these T cells you make can also fight off SARS-CoV-2.

"It's definitely luck," she says. "But, you know, this mutation is quite common. We estimate that maybe 1 in 10 people have it. And in people who are asymptomatic, that rises to 1 in 5."

Anecdote alert:
The Storm Vixen tested positive for 14 days, she, thankfully is now negative, but it's knocked her sideways a bit, she gets breathless easily and cannot do much physical activity without getting tired.

When she tested positive, I moved into the spare room, but we were in the same room and she had symptoms a day before testing positive.

I tested negative the whole time, although had minor symptoms that could have been psychosomatic.
Seeing that the high transmissibility of the later Covid variants, I may be one of those mutants.

 

[weepiper]

Notable uptick in people wearing masks in shops here this week.

 

[friedaweed]

Daft numbers around here including the elderly inlaws. Here we go again.

 

[cesare]

Daft numbers around here including the elderly inlaws. Here we go again.

Are they very poorly or are they holding up ok?

 

[friedaweed]

Are they very poorly or are they holding up ok?

The old boy's got dementia (Mid 80's) and has been rough as a badgers for three days but it was only when the MIL got a text from the 'Youth club' that Mable had tested positive that she though to do a test. Thankfully he's on the meand now and her spinal prescribed morphine patches seem to be masking any symptoms that she might have had manageable, but fuck me they're worse than the kids for taking precautions . Both tested positive this morning, been to Costa 3 times, two clubs and a walk round a stately home . Thankfully they seem ok for now, apart from the fact that they're nutty as batshit. God bless...

My poor wife, all she wanted was an easy life

 

[cesare]

The old boy's got dementia (Mid 80's) and has been rough as a badgers for three days but it was only when the MIL got a text from the 'Youth club' that Mable had tested positive that she though to do a test. Thankfully he's on the meand now and her spinal prescribed morphine patches seem to be masking any symptoms that she might have had manageable, but fuck me they're worse than the kids for taking precautions . Both tested positive this morning, been to Costa 3 times, two clubs and a walk round a stately home . Thankfully they seem ok for now, apart from the fact that they're nutty as batshit. God bless...

My poor wife, all she wanted was an easy life

Proper envy their social diary but I bet they're driving Mrs Frieda scatty Glad they seem OK though x x

 

[friedaweed]

Proper envy their social diary but I bet they're driving Mrs Frieda scatty Glad they seem OK though x x

Wife's tested pos this morning. Rough as a badgers. That's her on the sofa with the railway children.

Just screening off the living room with heavey duty polythene with a hatch in for her meals. Has anyone got a portable loo she can borrow, or a sheewee she can use out of the window?

 

[cesare]

Wife's tested pos this morning. Rough as a badgers. That's her on the sofa with the railway children.

Just screening off the living room with heavey duty polythene with a hatch in for her meals. Has anyone got a portable loo she can borrow, or a sheewee she can use out of the window?

Oh no! GWS Mrs F

 

[elbows]

The lag in the ONS survey results, which got a bit worse when they changed their methodology a while ago, coupled with a cautious narrative, combine to demonstrate that this survey is unable to generate appropriately timed statements about a new wave, even when the wave became obvious via other data some time ago.

Sarah Crofts, from the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey, said: "It is too early to identify whether this is the start of a new wave of infections. We will continue to closely monitor the data."

And so the likes of the BBC have to mention hospital data in their article. However unlike some other media this week the BBC have ignored the 'infections caught in hospital' dimension, instead focussing on the proportion of those 'with' not 'for' in hospital with covid data as though it is straightforward reason to be more relaxed about the hospital numbers. All the same, due to quotes from other sources their article is still able to come across as a warning rather than a simple 'everything is fine' story.

More recent data showing a rise in hospital admissions with Covid has been called "a wake-up call".

Dr Thomas Waite, deputy chief medical officer for England, told BBC News that a number of new sub-variants of Omicron were circulating at low levels, and could be behind the hospital figures.

Daily hospital admissions are lower than where they were for much of July, but highest among the oldest age groups.

However, six out of 10 people with Covid in hospital is being treated for something else - not Covid-19.

"The fact there are people getting so seriously ill they need to go into hospital is a wake-up call to us all that Covid is still here," said Dr Waite.

Covid infections rise by 14% in UK and now top a million

But there is no clear evidence of an autumn wave starting, says the Office for National Statistics.

www.bbc.co.uk

Later in the article there is a section labelled Unpredictable with quotes about how unpredictable this winter will be. But in many ways it seems all too predictable, especially given the removal of much asymptomatic testing.

 

[Thesaint]

Here is a variant graph from a UK government variant surveillance paper to add some proper substance to my answer. Things line up reasonably well so I could probably just have answered you with a simple yes previously, but thats not really my style.

Also note that as the testing regime has changed in this country, been scaled back, the quantity of genomic sampling has declined notably. Right now a whole bunch of further Omicron variants are vying for dominance, and the picture is a bit messy, and the reduced amount of testing and genomic sequencing really doesnt help a clear picture to emerge quickly. Anyway this latest chapter in regards which Omicron variants will feature strongly in the latest wave is not reflected in the graphic below at all.

View attachment 344977

From https://assets.publishing.service.g...3869/Technical-Briefing-45-9September2022.pdf

Presumably the BA5, is not significantly different to any of the other Omicron predecessors as it didn't justify a new name. I guess this wave will pass by much like the last if so.

 

[elbows]

BA.5 was the last wave. Its still around, but there are a bunch of other evolutions of Omicron that are vying to gain the upper hand now. Its not currently clear to me which of those, or which combination of those, will be shown to drive the new wave. There are various mutations in those which may impact on protection from vaccination or prior infection, but how much difference that makes remains to be seen. Other aspects of the immunity picture also evolve, including waning and uncertainties about what proportion of eligible people will go and get their latest booster. Changes to human behaviour and changes to things like testing of asymptomatic patients in hospital can also make a difference. The timing and extent of flu pressures on the NHS is also uncertain.

Important changes to specific aspects of the virus can occur without a brand new variant name being deployed.

Nothing has appeared on my radar that would make me think of the situation with waves these days as being the same as it was in the pre-vaccine era. But I still wouldnt go so far as to be very complacent or make comfortable assumption based on the size of peaks seen in the previous Omicron waves. But that does work both ways, a wave could be smaller than those seen previously for all I know.

 

[20Bees]

DD was in the US last week, where she flew between venues. Home on Friday, collected her little one from his dad on Saturday and had a pub lunch with her father, her sister, and sister’s toddler and new baby. This morning she felt rough and achy and tested positive for Covid.

She had a rotten bout of it over Christmas. Her father was quite poorly when he had it in the spring, and is just recovering from gall bladder removal a month ago, her sister had it mildly last winter. The grandchildren haven’t had it, neither have I. My seasonal booster is booked for next week.

DD said she can’t think where she caught it! Maybe airports, four flights and evening functions weren’t such a good idea.

 

[Thesaint]

DD said she can’t think where she caught it! Maybe airports, four flights and evening functions weren’t such a good idea.

With hindsight probably not a good idea...but depends how much of hers or our lives we want to cancel or indefinitely delay based on avoiding covid which will always be there and lurking and unavoidable unless you're a hermit. Would DD have still done that trip if she had that hindsight?

 

[elbows]

I feel like I should really be posting the NHS woe in a different thread but I havent got my head round which one (or a new one) so for now I will continue to stick them here.