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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Brainaddict said:
Yes, it is sad. I also find it infuriating that long covid is still not part of the narrative, even though we now have formal statistics on it and they don't look pretty Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics



As I saw someone point out on social media, this is the most globally disabling event within living memory (of most people), unmatched since WW2 I would have thought, and yet disability is still barely on the radar. Of course we don't know the long covid rate with omicron yet, but you'd only want to toss the dice on it if you didn't understand how disabling post-viral fatigue can be. Anyone who understood would err on the side of caution, because it's much more likely that you'll be disabled by covid than die from it - but afaics it's still just an occasional 'isn't this weird how doctors don't understand it' story on mainstream news.
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yeah. It's the pandemic version Epidemic myalgic encephalomyelitis - MEpedia
 
Brainaddict said:
I was a bit surprised at a local cafe in London today. I went there for lunch and chose it because it has a covered yard, very well ventilated but rain-proof. My partner and I sat in the yard, every other person sat inside the cafe. It was almost full of maskless people chatting away as though everything was normal, and all the doors and windows were kept shut. It seems a lot of people have decided to buy the message that it's now just like getting a bad cold or something, and apparently aren't worried about transmitting to older people or long covid.
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I've noticed that mentality too, and don't really get it. Bad colds are fucking debilitating! I've got one at the moment and I know it won't kill me, but I don't want to do anything except stay wrapped up warm in bed, reading and drinking tea. I definitely don't feel like going to a cafe, and wouldn't wish it on anyone else. If I was to ring in sick with it, many bosses would try to make me feel guilty about missing work for "just" a cold, ignoring the fact that a cold is still a virus and therefore makes you sick. I'm coming up negative on LFTs, but am staying in anyway because I feel crap and so will anyone I give it to. I feel slightly stronger today and hope to be better by the weekend, but yeah, people shouldn't take colds lightly.
 
Brainaddict said:
Yes, it is sad. I also find it infuriating that long covid is still not part of the narrative, even though we now have formal statistics on it and they don't look pretty Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics



As I saw someone point out on social media, this is the most globally disabling event within living memory (of most people), unmatched since WW2 I would have thought, and yet disability is still barely on the radar. Of course we don't know the long covid rate with omicron yet, but you'd only want to toss the dice on it if you didn't understand how disabling post-viral fatigue can be. Anyone who understood would err on the side of caution, because it's much more likely that you'll be disabled by covid than die from it - but afaics it's still just an occasional 'isn't this weird how doctors don't understand it' story on mainstream news.
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It flickered across the BBC radar recently:

www.bbc.co.uk

Long Covid: 'I have to choose between walking and talking'

People say their lives have been ruined by long Covid, amid fears the number of sufferers is rising.
www.bbc.co.uk

Here I only draw attention via quotes to the bit where health service failings are rather apparent, and how specialist services can make a big difference:

For nine months, doctors said anxiety was the cause of her symptoms, which included a tight chest, heart pain, breathlessness, fatigue and palpitations.

She knew they were wrong and developed her own symptom tracker which helped her work out that her triggers were bending over, walking and talking, with a delayed impact in her lungs.

Her health only began to improve when she started treatment at a clinic for 130 patients with severe long Covid, at the Royal Brompton Hospital, in London.
Click to expand...

Doctors found multiple health issues. A gas transfer test showed oxygen levels in her lungs to be 53%, the same as a lung disease patient, and she was diagnosed with post-Covid heart inflammation, which they told her they had not seen before.

They also found small blood clots on her lungs, which only showed up on a specialised scan called a ventilation-perfusion scan.

Since starting blood-thinning medication, the clots have gone but she still has abnormal blood and oxygen flow to her lungs.
Click to expand...
 
LeytonCatLady said:
I've noticed that mentality too, and don't really get it. Bad colds are fucking debilitating! I've got one at the moment and I know it won't kill me, but I don't want to do anything except stay wrapped up warm in bed, reading and drinking tea. I definitely don't feel like going to a cafe, and wouldn't wish it on anyone else. If I was to ring in sick with it, many bosses would try to make me feel guilty about missing work for "just" a cold, ignoring the fact that a cold is still a virus and therefore makes you sick. I'm coming up negative on LFTs, but am staying in anyway because I feel crap and so will anyone I give it to. I feel slightly stronger today and hope to be better by the weekend, but yeah, people shouldn't take colds lightly.
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I think part of it is what gets drummed into us from school - 100% attendance being a goal and all that. Work too. For someone whose always been susceptible to respiratory viruses (I get literally every one the kids get) I’ve got used to pushing through colds that only go to a certain level otherwise I’d probably get disciplinary issues. Now it feels like things have gone the other way - I’m not going into my hospital job with any sort of sniffle unless I’ve been tested.

I’m a bit concerned about the newer symptoms basically being cold symptoms. That would be someone in our house being PCRed every 3 weeks or so during winter. I am working on the assumption that if one of us gets a cold and tests negative and then if another of us gets the same thing, it’s unlikely to be COVID. LFTs help assess that too. But it’s not foolproof…
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Edie you seen that modelling?
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The usual caveats when considering the modelling and how it is presented apply, plus some new ones.

Firstly the graph in that tweet represents a highly simplified amalgamation of a number of modelling scenarios that were done as part of the same modelling exercise. It is still useful to see this compared to the actual figures as they come in, but I dont think its an entirely fair summary of what sort of range the model anticipated. Partly because people need to be aware of all the modelling assumptions used, including assumptions about behavioural changes due to the 'plan B measures' already in place, assumptions about how well boosters work and the amount of immune escape that Omicron can manage. Those are presented via a series of charts in the modelling which we can comapre to one another, and that detail is lost in the simplified tweet single graph version.

Also since that modelling was done, estimates came out for Omicron severity which impact on hospitalisation compared to Delta hospitalisation. The modelling document has been updated so that it says the following at the start, so we really need to scale down their figures, and Im not sure if thats been done in the graph that was tweeted:

In the preprint below, we made the assumption that Omicron and Delta have equal “baseline” severity — i.e. the intrinsic severity in an individual who has no protection from prior infection or from vaccination. We highlight in this update that this assumption of equal baseline severity still leads to around a 40% reduction in realised severity within each age group, because more Omicron cases are breakthrough infections or reinfections (Fig. A1, a). Note that our model was already assuming that the average realised hospitalisation rate of an Omicron infection would be lower than that of a Delta infection.

A new paper released on 22nd December 2021 by Imperial College (Report 50) shows that A&E visits among Omicron cases are reduced by 30–40% relative to Delta. This could translate into a baseline severity for Omicron of 60–70% relative to Delta (see Fig. A1, b for an illustration of 70% baseline severity) which would scale our projections for severe outcomes down by 30–40%. In general, to adjust for any particular finding of reduced baseline severity, our projections for hospital admissions and deaths in Figs. 2–4 can be scaled by the corresponding reduction in severity identified by the study in question. It is important for any of these studies comparing the severity of Omicron versus Delta that the study adjusts for reinfection and for vaccine status.

Since the vast majority of projected hospital admissions and deaths below are attributable to Omicron and not to Delta, scaling the curves and estimated totals between 1st December 2021 and 30th April 2022 would very closely approximate the correct scaling.
Click to expand...


I suppose a further complication is that hospital infections and incidental covid cases have always been a part of the daily admissions figures since the start of the panemic. And the modellers always tune their model by fitting it to past hospital admissions data. So I suppose it is possible that simply scaling down their Omicron model results to take account of lower hospitalisation risk will end up underestimating overall hospitalisation numbers because a chunk of those numbers are actually hospital infections and patients just happening to have covid, and Omicron being less severe wouldnt be expected to reduce those numbers. And those numbers and the people admitted because covid has made them severely ill are all represented by a single daily hospitalisations figure, both in real data and the modelling results we get to see, so we cant really unpick that and have a stab at making the proper adjustment to only the 'severely ill covid admissions' part of their numbers ourselves.

Sometimes models still end up being broadly right even if they get a bunch of input parameters wrong, because some of these errors might happen to cancel eachother out. I think they are still very useful for authorities that have to plan for a range of scenarios and need to know what the bounds of plausibility are when it comes to timing and scale. Whatever actually ends up happening with Omicron, I very much doubt I will come to view this modelling as having delivered a useless red herring that made us worry about Omicron for no good reason. A reasonably precautious attitude requires this stuff to be estimated in advance of the reality emerging. And those who dismiss such concerns as fearmongering tend to have the luxury of not being in charge of planning for a health system to cope with a range of plausible scenarios.
 
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Don't know If I already mentioned it, but at the beginning of December, the youngest member of my staff rang in with vague flu/cold symptoms ... Told him to take a PCR. He'd done an LFT, which was negative.
And I didn't want him back until he'd got a negative PCR result. In the just over a week he was off, he took a second PCR [also neg] but he still wasn't feeling 100%. -

I told him to stay off ... a) I didn't want him making himself worse by trying to work when he wasn't fit enough and b) whatever it was, I didn't want him giving it to everybody else ...
Told him "We're not in America ! - stay off until you are fit to work"
He was still a bit coughy / snotty for the first couple of days - still tested negative - he was back at work and he volunteered to mask-up, although he was working in the smallest work area and by himself for most of those two days.
By the third day, he was fine ...
 
LeytonCatLady said:
I've noticed that mentality too, and don't really get it. Bad colds are fucking debilitating! I've got one at the moment and I know it won't kill me, but I don't want to do anything except stay wrapped up warm in bed, reading and drinking tea. I definitely don't feel like going to a cafe, and wouldn't wish it on anyone else. If I was to ring in sick with it, many bosses would try to make me feel guilty about missing work for "just" a cold, ignoring the fact that a cold is still a virus and therefore makes you sick. I'm coming up negative on LFTs, but am staying in anyway because I feel crap and so will anyone I give it to. I feel slightly stronger today and hope to be better by the weekend, but yeah, people shouldn't take colds lightly.
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You should get a PCR test if you haven't already. A negative LFT doesnt mean much.
 
StoneRoad said:
Don't know If I already mentioned it, but at the beginning of December, the youngest member of my staff rang in with vague flu/cold symptoms ... Told him to take a PCR. He'd done an LFT, which was negative.
And I didn't want him back until he'd got a negative PCR result. In the just over a week he was off, he took a second PCR [also neg] but he still wasn't feeling 100%. -

I told him to stay off ... a) I didn't want him making himself worse by trying to work when he wasn't fit enough and b) whatever it was, I didn't want him giving it to everybody else ...
Told him "We're not in America ! - stay off until you are fit to work"
He was still a bit coughy / snotty for the first couple of days - still tested negative - he was back at work and he volunteered to mask-up, although he was working in the smallest work area and by himself for most of those two days.
By the third day, he was fine ...
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Thank you for being a good boss and caring about your staff. There's not enough of you.
 
Agent Sparrow said:
On the more general subject of sick leave, one thing wfh has done is lower my bar even further regarding when I’m too ill to not work. :mad:
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Yeah, that's a pain for encouraging presenteeism. Even a desk job with no commute still expends energy your body needs in order to fight whatever's making you sick!
 
Brainaddict said:
Yes, it is sad. I also find it infuriating that long covid is still not part of the narrative, even though we now have formal statistics on it and they don't look pretty Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics
Click to expand...

Post-viral fatigue, ME and the rest were barely noticed before the pandemic and they're still largely ignored now both by politicians and the general public. For many people it's something that largely never happens, until it happens to them.

Agent Sparrow said:
I hope at the very least that Johnson is spending his nights awake, tossing and turning and gazing at the ceiling as the anxiety and dread takes over.
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I'm still really not sure if he's psychologically capable of this. If anything bad comes out of the omicron wave, it'll be someone else's fault and there's nothing he could have done to prevent it.
 
stdP said:
Post-viral fatigue, ME and the rest were barely noticed before the pandemic and they're still largely ignored now both by politicians and the general public. For many people it's something that largely never happens, until it happens to them.



I'm still really not sure if he's psychologically capable of this. If anything bad comes out of the omicron wave, it'll be someone else's fault and there's nothing he could have done to prevent it.
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He's a weak man. He'll be getting Vallance, Whitty and other profs giving him some ranges and models, urging action. He'll get the message but probably zone out when it comes to the detail. Next up it'll be some braying 1922 Committee bod and he hasn't got the guts to take them on, so he'll offer up a series of reassuring wet farts. I realise this is beginning to sound like a particularly shit version of A Christmas Carol. Anyway, the only way he thinks he can square the 2 is with the pretence that boosters pretty much alone do the trick, protect the NHS and usher in the Age of Aquarius.

Saw something from South Africa saying Omicron hospitalises at 1/4 the rate of Delta, though with some provisos about a younger but less vaccinated population. With 183,000 today and, presumably an upward trajectory from Xmas/New Year (and then schools opening, back to work...), even that won't protect us sufficiently. Also, if the case figures and hospitalisation numbers keep going up for another 4/5 days, as a weak man, that will probably spook him into closing the stable door.
 
Staffing is still an issue but the configuration and practicalities are a bit different this time, so potentially more workable, as the article mentioned:

This is not a revival of the Nightingale hospitals set up at the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

Then large venues such as conference centres were pressed into service for an anticipated surge in seriously ill Covid patients.

But they were little used as major hospitals preferred to hold on to staff to deal with Covid pressures rather than lend them to the Nightingales.

This time temporary structures will be set up in the grounds of hospitals so staff, equipment and emergency departments are close at hand.

Only those patients who are close to being discharged and need minimal support will be cared for at these facilities.

Creating extra surge capacity is a familiar policy in winter months. But this is on a much bigger scale.

NHS England says its precautionary and the newly created structures may not be needed.

But the fact they are doing it suggests that while Omicron may not make people as seriously ill as Delta the NHS is braced for significant numbers in a potentially major new wave of Covid admissions.
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They arent at all sure they will actually need them, but especially if bed-blocking type stuff becomes a big deal in new ways at some point during the peak or immediate aftermath of this wave, they may as well try to set these things up in advance just in case they are required. It offers a modest quantiy of wiggle room if circumstances end up so desperate that staff being inappropriately stretched is already a huge deal, it at least deals with some simple practicalities involving physical space.

Its also one of the solutions that they dont mind talking about. Other stuff that would actually be done to reduce pressure in an emergency includes changing the criteria for admission and hospital care, but they dont like talking about that much at all. Well, this time around they dont mind talking about the palatable version of that, where 'care in the comfort of your own home' is offered via remote oxygen monitoring and treatment with certain drugs that are now available. But other versions exist too which they dont want to dwell on but have been forced to temporarily use in some places in the past, where they simply change the admissions criteria in a way that rations critical care to a greater extent, which inevitably tends to increase the death rate.
 
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I see the press noticed the problems with test availability.

Screenshot 2021-12-30 at 03.03.jpg

And

www.theguardian.com

Johnson blamed for Covid test shortages as cases hit record 183,000

Labour criticises PM over ‘total shambles’ of some essential workers being unable to access test kits
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

As medical staff experienced delays in PCR test results and problems accessing rapid tests, NHS Providers called on No 10 to consider reserving some tests for health workers. Some Tory MPs were also demanding answers from government ministers about whether there should be a priority ranking for who should get tests first.
Click to expand...

Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, said Johnson’s plea for people to take lateral flows when there were shortages showed “spectacular incompetence”.

“Congratulations to Boris Johnson who has managed to appear on television today urging people to get tested when people are struggling to access them,” he said.

“People are trying to do the right thing, follow the government’s own advice, and test themselves regularly, but are prevented by the Conservative government’s incompetence.”
Click to expand...

But Maria Caulfield, the government’s junior health minister, insisted there were “plenty of tests”, in a post to a WhatsApp group of Tory MPs. Caulfield said the “constant speculation that we are running out of tests is just fuelling demand”, and urged colleagues to tell constituents they should “keep trying” to book tests online.

Javid is also understood to be preparing a memo for MPs confirming supplies of LFTs and PCRs were safe.
Click to expand...

However, their assurances were undermined by Tory MPs reporting first-hand problems ordering tests. Roger Gale, the MP for North Thanet, tweeted that “Kent appears to be in Lateral Flow and PCR Test gridlock”.

Gale later said he had spoken with Javid and been told “there is a world shortage of Lateral Flow & PCR test supplies, but we are buying all that’s available”.

A former minister called the situation a “shitshow” and added Javid’s letter “probably won’t immediately match reality”. A second Tory MP said availability of tests “definitely seems to be an issue”, and a third said a relative who was an essential worker had been unable to order one.
Click to expand...
 
stdP said:
Post-viral fatigue, ME and the rest were barely noticed before the pandemic and they're still largely ignored now both by politicians and the general public. For many people it's something that largely never happens, until it happens to them.
Click to expand...
Too right.

I remember when one of my team got covid in the first wave in March 2020 and I was adamant that he take a good week off for rest after the symptoms had stopped as his temperature had reached 40C at one point. I knew of an 18 year old who had died of a heart attack when going out on a night out shortly after flu and a work mate (not my team) who had had to be taken to hospital by ambulance ( young female of otherwise good health) after heart complications arising from a viral infection a few years back so my first instinct is to treat any virus infection seriously.

Managing the health and wellness of a team should be at the core of success and that is about so much more than attendance spreadsheets.
 
www.theguardian.com

Up to 90% of Covid patients in ICU are unboosted, says Boris Johnson

Prime minister urges people to get third jab during visit to a vaccination centre in Milton Keynes
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

"Up to 90% unboosted" - "up to" seems weird politician speak - anything to read into that? Is that "one ICU has 90% unboosted, but most have lots of boosted patients too" or something else?

Is there a breakdown somewhere of the proportions in ICU with 0, 1, 2, 3 jabs?
 
At 9 45am today for England

there are no lateral flow tests online
There are no home PCR tests to be sent out for the public
There are no home PCR tests to be sent out for essential workers
There are no walk in PCR tests in any of the English regions(to book online. Maybe there is capacity through other channels )
 
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