Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[StoneRoad]

I have just received one box of seven tests
[and I think there might be 1 left from the box my OH got before chrimble].
We are a 4 adult household ... so one box is less than enough for the twice a week regime !

And now there aren't any to order ?

#worldbeating

 

[kenny g]

One way to get those numbers down...

Or lockdown beckons as the system is overwhelmed... This regime is always full of surprises in terms of vomiting forth a shit storm when any sunshine beckons.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

I have just received one box of seven tests
[and I think there might be 1 left from the box my OH got before chrimble].
We are a 4 adult household ... so one box is less than enough for the twice a week regime !

And now there aren't any to order ?

#worldbeating

I think shortly after midnight might be the best time to order some but I could be wrong.

 

[bmd]

I think shortly after midnight might be the best time to order some but I could be wrong.

Yeah, someone said that to my mum. What's that about?

 

[Sunray]

I've been watching Dr John Cambell a lot recently. His last one was very upbeat on Omicron.

Talk on Omicron

Of all the data he discusses, this caught my eye


This is data from INARC which gathers the data from UK ICUs and shows the number of people in ICU based on their vaccinaction status.
There are three lines there but the single and double vaccinated are the same. Showing a single dose appears to successfully prevent you going into ICU at any age.

When does the reporting kick back in again, after the 21st its a bit dubious.?

The deaths and ICU have been on a slow but clearly downward trend since 1 November, which was entirely Delta.Totally disconnected from the numbers getting sick.
Starting to show that vaccinations are really working.

 

[xenon]

Yeah, someone said that to my mum. What's that about?

Presumably as you're getting that day's dispatch slots ASAP. A bit like supermarket delivery slots.

 

[xenon]

Kinda gonna make a mockery of the case figures in the next few days innit.

I've not been using tests for reasons relating to accessibility so gave a box of LFTs to a family member anyway but who could have possibly predicted there might be more needed going into winter, never mind omicron.

 

[elbows]

Up to 90% of Covid patients in ICU are unboosted, says Boris Johnson

Prime minister urges people to get third jab during visit to a vaccination centre in Milton Keynes

www.theguardian.com

"Up to 90% unboosted" - "up to" seems weird politician speak - anything to read into that? Is that "one ICU has 90% unboosted, but most have lots of boosted patients too" or something else?

Is there a breakdown somewhere of the proportions in ICU with 0, 1, 2, 3 jabs?

I cant read much into it. The only thing thats been clear for ages is that authorities always want to draw attention to any data which can be used to encourage more people to get vaccinated, which is understandable. And Johnsons comments are just the latest example of that.

Because I want people to understand the full picture I have repeatedly posted about the actual numbers in hospital by vaccine status. More recently I found the reports in regards 'critical care' by vaccine status. Its the same source that Sunray posted a graph from above, but I focussed on a different graph in this post: #6,834

That post also includes some early data specific to Omicron cases. Its really quite early days for that and is not currently based on really large numbers, and since London is further ahead with Omicron its data is a bit more substantial, but London also has a lower vaccination rate than many places.

Reports on this front that I have seen so far havent tended to include any information about boosters yet, so I cant really say anything about that. It might take a while will this detail is added to reports, or perhaps it isnt far away now, I would not like to guess.

So far all the data I've seen shows the expected picture - in terms of rates per 100,000 population, the very much increased risk that the unvaccinated face shows up extremely clearly. But since such a huge percentage of the population has been vaccinated, and vaccines are not 100% effective, in terms of the raw numbers of people in hospital and in intensive care there are plenty of vaccinated people in there too. Sometimes more than half, sometimes less than half, but always a fair proportion. And this is what SAGE etc have always expected, even with vaccines working really quite well.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Javid admits a problem with testing in a letter to Tory MPs.

In a letter sent to MPs on Wednesday evening, Javid acknowledged the intense strain being put on the system as cases of the Omicron variant continue to increase, with 183,037 new infections recorded on Wednesday.

“In light of the huge demand for LFDs seen over the last three weeks, we expect to need to constrain the system at certain points over the next two weeks to manage supply over the course of each day, with new tranches of supply released regularly throughout each day,” he wrote.

Javid underlined the action the government has taken to increase the supply of LFDs, with 300m expected to be available in January, up from the 100m planned before the Omicron variant was discovered.

Amid warnings that the PCR tests used to confirm new cases of the virus have also been unavailable in many parts of the country, Javid also stressed that capacity for these has increased significantly, from 530,000 a day in November to up to 700,000 a day.

300m sounds a lot, but as Badgers pointed out on the chat thread, there's 7 per pack, so this is actually under 43m packs.

Lateral flow tests to be ‘constrained’ over next two weeks, warns Sajid Javid

Supply of test kits squeezed despite new rules requiring their use to end quarantine early

www.theguardian.com

 

[bimble]

So the shortage of tests is going to continue for some weeks whilst we are all encouraged to go out and party cautiously. Really not good.

 

[Chilli.s]

Really not good.

Really obvious that we should expect this though?

 

[bimble]

Really obvious that we should expect this though?

probably. Haven’t seen anything about when the people in charge twigged that omicron means we’d be needing a lot more tests, maybe they placed big orders weeks ago. Probably not though probably left it til yesterday.

 

[elbows]

So this sort of comment about breaking through into older people comes up a bit at the moment:

The UK is still seeing very high Covid hospital admissions, despite early evidence suggesting Omicron may be milder than previous variants, the government's former chief scientific adviser says.

Prof Mark Walport tells BBC Radio 4's World at One programme that it is not yet clear whether the wave will break through to older people in the UK.

And with around five million adults in the UK still completely unvaccinated, he says the risk of being admitted to hospital remains for those individuals.

He adds that the "astronomical number of infections" in the UK also poses "terrific challenges" for the workforce, with large numbers isolating.

Thats from the 13:49 entry on the BBC live updates page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59825655

Well I would say that both hospital admissions and positive tests data already demonstrates that it has broken through into older people. I have no doubt about that now. The remaining uncertainties on this front are quite how high case numbers will go in the older age groups, how long that situation will persist, and how well protected against severe disease they turn out to be.

 

[elbows]

probably. Haven’t seen anything about when the people in charge twigged that omicron means we’d be needing a lot more tests, maybe they placed big orders weeks ago. Probably not though probably left it til yesterday.

They should have recalculated their sums when they changed the self-isolation rules to include a 'get out early via 2 negative tests' option.

And yes they should also have expected ginormous demand once they expected a huge wave.

And since global demand is mentioned, they should really have considered that would happen given huge Delta and Omicron waves that numerous countries are now experiencing.

 

[bimble]

Are they not manufactured here at all the LF tests?
ETA oh looks like one place makes them but only since September this year

First UK manufactured rapid tests deployed across England

The first UK-manufactured lateral flow devices or LFDs are being rolled out to universities across England.

www.gov.uk

 

[Chilli.s]

This is what happens when a load of the budget is pissed away in kickbacks and untendered deals to mates

 

[xenon]

Just read there are no trains into Victoria from south London, and beyond. until around the 10th of January. Due to staff shortages. pfft

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just read there are no trains into Victoria from south London, and beyond. until around the 10th of January. Due to staff shortages. pfft

I was just coming to post that, loads of other services also cancelled.

Southern cancels London Victoria trains for two weeks over Covid

Firm cites ‘isolation and sickness’ as it says it will run no services to or from station until 10 January

www.theguardian.com

 

[sparkybird]

In think demand is surging everywhere. No LFTs to be had in Sevilla today and although I got two yesterday, they had gone up to €6 each from €4. No one is answering the hotline for reporting.....

 

[LeytonCatLady]

You should get a PCR test if you haven't already. A negative LFT doesnt mean much.

Not having much luck getting a PCR online at the moment, either delivered or at a testing centre, and the site said not to call the helplines. I'll keep trying.

 

[brogdale]

Just read there are no trains into Victoria from south London, and beyond. until around the 10th of January. Due to staff shortages. pfft

Could save a few lives.

 

[StoneRoad]

Not surprisingly, there's a delay to today's dashboard update ...

• 30 December 2021
  Because of a delay in receiving deaths data for England, today's update is delayed. The current estimate for release is 7:30pm. Further updates will be provided here.
  

 

[brogdale]

I see the media (& Met office) have bought into this "hey, let's all paaarrrty outside!" vibe from the govt. including the almost unbelievably vacuous "care" minister Gillian Keegan:





I mean, I get it and all that...but when folks round my way of the Roundshaw do try to party outside it just draws the fucking OB helicopters all night.

 

[gentlegreen]

There were people hauling off improbable amounts of alcohol in Aldi today ...

 

[elbows]

The press dont focus on hospital admissions by age group very often. But the BBC has done so today for England.

Unlike my graphs where I just use the raw numbers, they are showing rates per 100,000 of population.

This is from the 15:47 entry of the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59825655

 

[_Russ_]

That's quite scary

Edit...am I reading that correctly?, does it really say that not far off 1 in every 1000 85+ in England are going into hospital with covid every day?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Not a good look for Johnson's government!

Welsh government comes to Westminster's aid with four million lateral flow tests​

The Welsh government has agreed to loan four million more tests to the NHS in England, bringing the total the country has given England to a total of 10 million.

 

[LDC]

Those Nightingale hospitals are reported to be stepdown surge capacity, each of 100 beds. NHS also clearing up to 4,000 beds elsewhere.

 

[brogdale]

Not a good look for Johnson's government!

Welsh government comes to Westminster's aid with four million lateral flow tests​

That's genuinely cheered me up!

 

[emanymton]

There were people hauling off improbable amounts of alcohol in Aldi today ...

This time last year I saw a women buying dozens of bottles of wine and the staff helped her carry it to her car. Not been back again despite it being 5 min away.