Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
but it’s not up to most people to calculate the risks, it’s the epemiologists, the virologists, the doctors. it’s their opinion that matters, not some bloke who doesn’t want to wear a mask in a shop.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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Yossarian
Get thee behind me, Santa
Yep - your right to independently assess risks for yourself ends at the point where you put others at risk.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Nick Triggle BBC Health Correspondent on a page dated today 14th September mainly about Booster rollout:
FFS these people are highly paid BY US!!!! and we have no choice but to pay..ever felt like you were being shafted?
Covid: Booster jabs for over-50s expected to be announced
A single dose of Pfizer will be offered at least six months after a second dose, the BBC understands.
www.bbc.co.uk
FFS these people are highly paid BY US!!!! and we have no choice but to pay..ever felt like you were being shafted?
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I'm not sure what your outrage is about?Nick Triggle BBC Health Correspondent on a page dated today 14th September mainly about Booster rollout:
Covid: Booster jabs for over-50s expected to be announced
A single dose of Pfizer will be offered at least six months after a second dose, the BBC understands.www.bbc.co.uk
FFS these people are highly paid BY US!!!! and we have no choice but to pay..ever felt like you were being shafted?
Don't understand what you mean.Nick Triggle BBC Health Correspondent on a page dated today 14th September mainly about Booster rollout:
Covid: Booster jabs for over-50s expected to be announced
A single dose of Pfizer will be offered at least six months after a second dose, the BBC understands.www.bbc.co.uk
FFS these people are highly paid BY US!!!! and we have no choice but to pay..ever felt like you were being shafted?
So the government have released their plan for winter. I appreciate its only headline stuff but quite frankly anyone of us could have written it in 5 minutes.
Basically just try and avoid doing anything until it gets so bad they are forced into acting. Its not worked brilliantly for the last 18 months but hey, try try again.
Boris Johnson warns Covid risk remains as he unveils England's winter plan
But he says the UK is better placed to tackle the disease as he outlines England's winter plan.
www.bbc.co.uk
Basically just try and avoid doing anything until it gets so bad they are forced into acting. Its not worked brilliantly for the last 18 months but hey, try try again.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
At this rate, we're going to have to start calling Javid Baldrick.So the government have released their plan for winter. I appreciate its only headline stuff but quite frankly anyone of us could have written it in 5 minutes.
Boris Johnson warns Covid risk remains as he unveils England's winter plan
But he says the UK is better placed to tackle the disease as he outlines England's winter plan.www.bbc.co.uk
Basically just try and avoid doing anything until it gets so bad they are forced into acting. Its not worked brilliantly for the last 18 months but hey, try try again.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
The only things that seem to be an advance over repeating previous stupidities is the vaccine rollout to teenagers and the prospect of boosters for the over 50s [plus flu jabs for the over 50s - mine is tomorrow]
I can see the situation with the increasing number of the hospital admissions & deaths getting to the point that the gov't will be forced into encouraging masking / wfh again, and even something akin to the tiers (mockdowns).
If my monitoring the data has it starting to go towards that point during next two months, I'll be back to wfh & masking up etc ... not that I have given up on particularly on the latter, just largely avoiding crowded & enclosed places.
I can see the situation with the increasing number of the hospital admissions & deaths getting to the point that the gov't will be forced into encouraging masking / wfh again, and even something akin to the tiers (mockdowns).
If my monitoring the data has it starting to go towards that point during next two months, I'll be back to wfh & masking up etc ... not that I have given up on particularly on the latter, just largely avoiding crowded & enclosed places.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Are you on the same planet as nick?, One where telling lies like " It was feared September could see Covid cases rise, but there are no signs of that happening yet." on a public funded news Site is OK then ?
That's basically Plan B which will be implemented at a time things have got so bad that Plan C will follow mere days later. That has been what has happened for the last 18 months. I remain unconvinced they will be able to avoid a repeat though obviously I hope they can.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
There's not clear evidence of a rise in cases in September at this point.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Well, telling us what you're outraged about helps....
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
1st Sept = 35,693 reported new cases/35,050 new cases by 7 day rolling average
13th Sept = 30,825 reported new cases/34,521 new cases by 7 day rolling average
They did go up in early September, with the higest number reported being 42,067 on 3rd Sept and the average reaching a peak on 5th Sept of 38,925, but has come down since then.
Triggle is right that the feared rise in cases during September hasn't happened yet. It might not happen. It might start happening when todays figures come out. Nobody knows what's going to happen.
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Today's reported new cases are down to 26,628, meaning the 7-day average has dropped by -14.3%
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
Ok. But my point is still validThat is not why Germany is stopping free tests at all. Its to try to encourage more people to get vaccinated. And those who do not get vaccinated and dont have proof of prior infection will face a greater testing burden in order to be allowed entry into certain settings.
Germany to end free Covid-19 testing in bid to boost vaccination
Germany’s coronavirus vaccination drive has slowed and those people who have not taken up the opportunity to have shots will have to take COVID-19 tests to take a full part in public life, Chancellor…www.france24.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
No it isnt. Authorities dont want the public to start ignoring testing and they dont want to lose the data that comes from that system. Because authorities know that they are not out of the woods yet, they have to allow for the possibility that things deteriorate badly over autumn and winter. So they dont want to throw away all the tools at their disposal yet. Some right wing fucks in the media demand that they do, but they will be ignored for now, because they dont actually know what they are talking about in regards this pandemic.
I would say that its true that governments will eventually want peoples behaviours to return to normal far more than is the case so far. And when they are really confident that time has arrived, they will likely look to ditch some stuff that affects peoples attitudes and stops them returning to their pre-pandemic levels of contact mixing and economic activity. I dont really expect to be hearing about the case numbers on the news every day for the next ten years. I cannot predict what the authorities attitudes to mass diagnostic testing will be like in the long-term, and given the capacity and industry created, they may want bits of that to become more permanent, its too early for me to offer a confident prediction about that.
Whitty pointed out in the press conference today that this country has not yet experienced a winter with the very nasty Delta variant. And this is certainly one of the big reasons why they are not tearing up every covid measure and non-vaccine weapon in their arsenal at this stage. That luxury is simply unavailable to them at this stage and those who claim otherwise are misreading the range of possibilities.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Some observations in regards the press conference:
They made use of the data that has recently become available in regards how many hospitalisations and deaths were vaccinated. I'll probably post those slides later.
Covid passports arent a completely dead idea, they found a new use for them. They are presented as something they might bring in if a situation in reached which I would have described in the past as necessitating 'slamming on the brakes'. But because Johnson doesnt want to go on about the prospect of closing stuff again, since that would be a reversal of stuff he 'hoped' was irreversible earlier this year, they are presenting vaccine passports as a new alternative brake they might feel the need to use. Journalists brought the vaccine passports up a lot, and one of Johnsons main talking points to fall back on when they did, was to emphasise all the events that have voluntarily used such schemes already.
Working from home was another similar thing that they arent too ashamed to mention they are keeping in reserve as part of plan B.
Person said he has recently recovered from Covid having been double-jabbed. And he did manage to get them to wriggle uncomfortably by asking why, given the graphs showing how much higher the numbers are compared to this time last year, they werent doing some of the softer stuff to bring those numbers down now.
When asked to justify the booster campaign, they were happy to go on about waning immunity. Personally I would have split that possibility, and it showing up in basic data, into 3 different things - there is actual waning immunity, there are the vulnerable people for whom the vaccine never generated a brilliant response in the first place, and there is also the effect of Delta on vaccine effectiveness.
A journalist (maybe from the TImes) brought up the Nicki Minaj vaccine impotency bollocks, which led to Whitty having a rant which included advising the press not to give this untrue shit attention because when its repeated some people start to believe there is something to it.
They made use of the data that has recently become available in regards how many hospitalisations and deaths were vaccinated. I'll probably post those slides later.
Covid passports arent a completely dead idea, they found a new use for them. They are presented as something they might bring in if a situation in reached which I would have described in the past as necessitating 'slamming on the brakes'. But because Johnson doesnt want to go on about the prospect of closing stuff again, since that would be a reversal of stuff he 'hoped' was irreversible earlier this year, they are presenting vaccine passports as a new alternative brake they might feel the need to use. Journalists brought the vaccine passports up a lot, and one of Johnsons main talking points to fall back on when they did, was to emphasise all the events that have voluntarily used such schemes already.
Working from home was another similar thing that they arent too ashamed to mention they are keeping in reserve as part of plan B.
Person said he has recently recovered from Covid having been double-jabbed. And he did manage to get them to wriggle uncomfortably by asking why, given the graphs showing how much higher the numbers are compared to this time last year, they werent doing some of the softer stuff to bring those numbers down now.
When asked to justify the booster campaign, they were happy to go on about waning immunity. Personally I would have split that possibility, and it showing up in basic data, into 3 different things - there is actual waning immunity, there are the vulnerable people for whom the vaccine never generated a brilliant response in the first place, and there is also the effect of Delta on vaccine effectiveness.
A journalist (maybe from the TImes) brought up the Nicki Minaj vaccine impotency bollocks, which led to Whitty having a rant which included advising the press not to give this untrue shit attention because when its repeated some people start to believe there is something to it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
A couple of the more interesting press conference slides. From https://assets.publishing.service.g...Press_Conference_Slides__for_publication_.pdf
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
The fact that confirmed cases are on a downwards slope again is interesting isn't it. What are the educated explanations for that currently?
elbows
Well-Known Member
One of the consequences of expert commentary being caught out by the July peak is that many of them are far more wary of offering explanations and predictions these days.
Fundamentally the level of infection should still be based on the combination of the population immunity picture, coupled with behaviours/contact mixing and recent numbers of infectious people, along with the characteristics of the currently dominant variant.
Its the worng day of the week for me to analyse the figures, when it comes to positive case numbers reported I prefer to wait till Wednesdays. But I'll say again that I prefer to look at the individual nations rather than overall UK figure. And I try to look by age group and region too, since clues could be lurking there.
When I next get round to that, I still wouldnt expect a nice tidy answer. In the meantime I will throw out there the possibility that the spell of nice weather we had earlier this month might have had an impact for all I know, and the timing might be about right for that to fit as one partial explanation. And that relatively high levels of immunity are changing the nature of the game somewhat, making things better but also messier and less easy to confidently predict. And that evolving immunity picture very much includes the impact of millions of people having caught it since the start of June.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I was about to say that it's not yet reflected in the perhaps more important healthcare numbers, which looked to be still rising gradually, but I've just noticed that selecting for England rather than the whole UK shows them all pretty level (no clear decline though). This is in contrast to what's happening in Scotland at the moment.
little_legs
Поехали!
The post-reset pre-reset reset.So the government have released their plan for winter. I appreciate its only headline stuff but quite frankly anyone of us could have written it in 5 minutes.
Boris Johnson warns Covid risk remains as he unveils England's winter plan
But he says the UK is better placed to tackle the disease as he outlines England's winter plan.www.bbc.co.uk
Basically just try and avoid doing anything until it gets so bad they are forced into acting. Its not worked brilliantly for the last 18 months but hey, try try again.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I havent read the SAGE documents that came out yet, but since they generated headlines about many thousands of hospitalisations per day still being on their radar, I will.
eg:
If people respond to worsening mood music as they did in the past, then that in itself will count as a measure that makes a difference as far as I'm concerned. And it has certainly been very much easier to predict that the message would shift to one of great concern once autumn loomed than it is to actually predict what will exactly happen with the rates of infection and hospitalisation these days.
eg:
Covid: Plan B would be triggered by NHS pressure, Sajid Javid says
Government scientists are warning of a jump in Covid hospital admissions if rules are not tightened soon.
www.bbc.co.uk
If people respond to worsening mood music as they did in the past, then that in itself will count as a measure that makes a difference as far as I'm concerned. And it has certainly been very much easier to predict that the message would shift to one of great concern once autumn loomed than it is to actually predict what will exactly happen with the rates of infection and hospitalisation these days.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I havent seen any full modelling done for SAGE yet, so mostly I just have the minutes of their September 9th meeting to go on so far. Various key quotes from that document are below. Not all of them are bad news, and I note that SAGE dont sound happy with our approach compared to some other countries (I put that quote in bold):
elbows
Well-Known Member
And now a quick look at their modelling consensus summary from the same time period.
I dont think they know what R to expect because they have reduced confidence in their ability to estimate what behaviours and level of contacts people had after the various unlocking stages. In the following graph based on several different R values, their best guess is that the reality will be somewhere in between the blue and green lines. They think the red line scenario where R is 2 is highly unlikely, unless waning immunity or a new variant become a big deal. But they are still a bit nervous about totally ruling out such a scenario due to how high R got in Scotland recently.
Unless we are lucky enough not to see R rise in the weeks ahead, the scenarios painted involve the sort of peak timing the authorities were hoping to avoid. Indeed the whole 'if not now then when?' rhetoric of a few months ago relied in part on justifying the relaxations on the basis that it would be better to get the peak out of the way before autumn/winter. Now they think that peak has been pushed later, which is not good news. But I think there is plenty of uncertainty about what will actually happen. Especially if people behave cautiously as a result of gloomy mood music and peoples expectations that things get worse in seasons that arent summer.
I dont think they know what R to expect because they have reduced confidence in their ability to estimate what behaviours and level of contacts people had after the various unlocking stages. In the following graph based on several different R values, their best guess is that the reality will be somewhere in between the blue and green lines. They think the red line scenario where R is 2 is highly unlikely, unless waning immunity or a new variant become a big deal. But they are still a bit nervous about totally ruling out such a scenario due to how high R got in Scotland recently.
Unless we are lucky enough not to see R rise in the weeks ahead, the scenarios painted involve the sort of peak timing the authorities were hoping to avoid. Indeed the whole 'if not now then when?' rhetoric of a few months ago relied in part on justifying the relaxations on the basis that it would be better to get the peak out of the way before autumn/winter. Now they think that peak has been pushed later, which is not good news. But I think there is plenty of uncertainty about what will actually happen. Especially if people behave cautiously as a result of gloomy mood music and peoples expectations that things get worse in seasons that arent summer.
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