Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[IC3D]

I have no idea why you would speak with such assured and ill-deserved confidence on a matter where there remains so many unknowns. Have the last 18 months taught you nothing?

What they have taught me is to be very distrustful of those who would claim to make bold absolutist claims during this pandemic.

The statement linked is absolutely true. It's an established fact, some quarters play it down but it is not a false claim

 

[teuchter]

The statement linked is absolutely true. It's an established fact, some quarters play it down but it is not a false claim

When you say it doesn't prevent infection or onwards transmission, I think you mean that it doesn't prevent it completely.

However, it does reduce the risk that someone will be infected or transmit the infection onwards.

Do you agree with the second sentence?

 

[elbows]

A question for the data geeks. We know anecdotally that once restrictions relaxed, people began to (a) test themselves with lateral flow tests (and not pcr) when they have symptoms and (b) use the re-emergence of the common cold to convince themselves they had only a cold without bothering to test, even though both the delta variant and the vaccine made distinguishing between them almost impossible without a test. Is it possible to work out how much of the drop in positive test figures was due to those two factors?

Normally I would try to account for any impact on changing attitudes towards symptoms and getting tested by looking at other data that is not so influenced by such things. For example the ONS survey which uses random sampling in the community to infer rates of prevalence in private households. And very much the hospitalisation figures a week or so later than the positive case figures. I would also be sure to try to look at all these forms of data by age group. And things like the percentage of positive tests can be used as an indication of whether enough testing is being done. In many periods I'd also advise looking at data on number of tests taken, but this was, as expected, massively affected by school holidays which clouds that picture and makes it less than suitable for getting to the bottom of the anecdotal picture you mention due to similar timing.

On this occasion I've mostly just compared positive test results to hospital admissions/diagnoses. And there is a good match, so the drops seen were very real, not a mere artefact of changing attitudes to testing. For example the drop in case numbers was largest in the younger age groups, and this same pattern was then seen in hospital data. As we travel up through the age groups, the July drop in cases becomes more modest, and the drop in hospitalisations in those age groups becomes more modest too. I've not got time for graphs right now but for some age groups what I've said is shown quite powerfully, its not a subtle change. And in age groups like 18-24 and 25-34, the drop in hospital admissions has been sustained. But by the time we get to age groups like 65-74 and 75-84, there was barely a drop in the first place, more of a levelling off followed by a gradual rise. Everything I've said in this paragraph relates to data for England rather than the UK as a whole.

Since you mention lateral flow tests its probably also worth pointing out that the positive case figure for England include those who test positive with lateral flow tests, although that obviously only applies where the results are reported to authorities and these positives are also removed from the figures later if they test negative on a subsequent PCR test taken within a few days of the lateral flow test.

 

[Teaboy]

The statement linked is absolutely true. It's an established fact, some quarters play it down but it is not a false claim

No, you've not understood it properly. That's fine you're clearly not an expert, neither am I which is why we should be wary of making such definitive statements.

 

[zora]

Args, I know we discussed this some pages back, but my vexation at the situation hasn't lessened:

This is now the third fucking time that a colleague is merrily informing me that they haven't got covid - after I spent the lunch break in the staffroom with them, and something raised my suspicion about their state of health.
In this case, I noticed my colleague snivelling a bit towards the end of our lunchbreak, but told myself "let's not be paranoid, everyone can have a bit of an allergy or whatever else". Only then he gets up and I notice him popping some panadol.
Me (innocently): "Are you feeling alright?". Colleague: "Yeah I have just got this really sore throat". Me: "Gnmrrrmph!" Colleague: "Don't worry, it's not covid, I have taken a lateral flow test"...

This is two weeks after a colleague came in with exact same symptoms and negative LFT, only to test positive by the evening. Aaaarghhh!

Have raised this with management who sound somewhat sympathetic to my idea that people just stay the fuck at home for at least a couple of days with ANY symptoms.
I totally blame government guidance on this which STILL hasn't (and now presumably never will) updated the fucking list of symptoms for which to get PCR tested. (I know that you could just tick the "I have a cough"-box anyway, but the guidance is just fucking shit).
Or if they really really "must" come in I'd appreciate it if they told me so that I could eat my lunch outside and don an FFP2 mask when indoors!

And I know I have been living a comparatively sheltered life that this is only the third time in the whole pandemic this is happening, compared to people in healthcare or with kids in school etc, but it is just so...unnecessary!

 

[Brainaddict]

Normally I would try to account for any impact on changing attitudes towards symptoms and getting tested by looking at other data that is not so influenced by such things. For example the ONS survey which uses random sampling in the community to infer rates of prevalence in private households. And very much the hospitalisation figures a week or so later than the positive case figures. I would also be sure to try to look at all these forms of data by age group. And things like the percentage of positive tests can be used as an indication of whether enough testing is being done. In many periods I'd also advise looking at data on number of tests taken, but this was, as expected, massively affected by school holidays which clouds that picture and makes it less than suitable for getting to the bottom of the anecdotal picture you mention due to similar timing.

On this occasion I've mostly just compared positive test results to hospital admissions/diagnoses. And there is a good match, so the drops seen were very real, not a mere artefact of changing attitudes to testing. For example the drop in case numbers was largest in the younger age groups, and this same pattern was then seen in hospital data. As we travel up through the age groups, the July drop in cases becomes more modest, and the drop in hospitalisations in those age groups becomes more modest too. I've not got time for graphs right now but for some age groups what I've said is shown quite powerfully, its not a subtle change. And in age groups like 18-24 and 25-34, the drop in hospital admissions has been sustained. But by the time we get to age groups like 65-74 and 75-84, there was barely a drop in the first place, more of a levelling off followed by a gradual rise. Everything I've said in this paragraph relates to data for England rather than the UK as a whole.

Since you mention lateral flow tests its probably also worth pointing out that the positive case figure for England include those who test positive with lateral flow tests, although that obviously only applies where the results are reported to authorities and these positives are also removed from the figures later if they test negative on a subsequent PCR test taken within a few days of the lateral flow test.

Thanks, that's good to know

 

[elbows]

Do these tests only include NHS tests? There will have been a lot of private testing towards the end of the summer break as people came back from holidays overseas. Where do those numbers go, are they excluded or differentiated somehow?

Pillar 1 is the NHS testing, the capacity of which gradually grew to just over 200,000 per day. Pillar 2 is the testing done via 'commercial partners', network of labs etc. This has two to three times the stated capacity of the pillar 1 NHS testing. Both are included in the figures for positive cases.

The two dont tend to be differentiated between on the official dashboard, but lots of the data that appears in the weekly surveillance reports is split into pillar 1 and pillar 2. But since pillar 2 is about far more than travel-related testing alone, this still wont allow you to see travel-related figures separately. Weekly surveillance reports for England are available at National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2021 to 2022 season

 

[elbows]

Thanks, that's good to know

A couple of graphs to somewhat illustrate the point I made. I've cut corners to get these so the hospital admissions include a very broad 18-64 age group, and for positive case rates I've just coped something off the official dashboard. Both are for England only.

Dashboard case rates graph. The light blue line is case rates for those aged 0-59, the dark blue line is case rates for those aged 60 and over.



Hospital admissions. The initial drop is very clear to see, primarily in those aged 18-64, but unfortunately so is the gradual rise in admissions in older age groups since then.

 

[2hats]

Heterologous boosting this autumn (the JCVI discussed COV-Boost study results yesterday).
UK prepares for ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine booster programme

Government officials said it was expected that many people would receive a booster vaccine different to the one used for their first two doses.

One senior Department of Health insider said: “We’ll be giving Pfizer to those who had AstraZeneca the first time, and AstraZeneca to those who had Pfizer. It’s the best combination to get as much protection as possible.”

Spoiler: UK prepares for ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine booster programme - full text

UK prepares for ‘mix and match’ Covid vaccine booster programme
Government officials say using different jabs for third doses should provide better protection
Sebastian Payne, Sarah Neville, Hannah Kuchler and Oliver Barnes in London, 6 hours ago, FT 10/09/2021

The UK is preparing to become the first big country to administer “mix and match” coronavirus vaccines for its booster programme, according to senior government figures.
Many Britons are expected to have a third, booster dose that is different to their first two jabs, on the basis that it would provide better protection against Covid-19, said the government insiders.
Ministers want to press ahead with an autumn booster campaign after separate studies from Oxford university and the team behind the Zoe Covid app found that the protection against symptomatic infection provided by the BioNTech/Pfizer and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines waned four to six months after second doses.
A final decision by the government on its booster plan will be made once the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, an advisory body, has made a recommendation.
The UK’s vaccination programme has been dominated by AstraZeneca, which has been found to have lower effectiveness against infection with the Delta variant of coronavirus compared with Pfizer.
However, some studies have suggested that AstraZeneca’s effectiveness declines more slowly than Pfizer’s.
The JCVI has been preparing its guidance for the government about the booster programme.
Members of the JCVI met on Thursday to analyse data from the University of Southampton’s Cov-Boost trial. It has looked at antibody responses among people who were initially given AstraZeneca or Pfizer jabs when they are subsequently given one of seven different vaccines as a third dose.
Previous research has suggested benefits in mixing and matching vaccines. An Oxford university study, published in June, showed people who received a first jab of AstraZeneca followed by a second of Pfizer experienced a nine-fold increase in antibody levels compared with those who had two doses of AstraZeneca.
Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London, said a combination of AstraZeneca and a vaccine using mRNA technology such as Pfizer “may give better, longer-lasting protection when used together”.
Government officials said it was expected that many people would receive a booster vaccine different to the one used for their first two doses.
One senior Department of Health insider said: “We’ll be giving Pfizer to those who had AstraZeneca the first time, and AstraZeneca to those who had Pfizer. It’s the best combination to get as much protection as possible.”
Another senior Whitehall official confirmed that mixing doses was “how we’re going to do the autumn booster programme”.
The Department of Health said in response to a request for comment: “Our independent regulator, the MHRA, has confirmed the AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines are safe and effective to be used as booster jabs and third doses for people who are immunosuppressed.
“We continue to prepare for an autumn booster programme . . . Any booster programme — including which vaccines might be recommended for use — will be based on the final advice of the independent Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation.”
Israel, the country furthest along with its booster programme, relies on Pfizer, which has been mainly used for initial vaccine doses. The US is likely to stick to giving the same vaccines, based on trial data for third doses provided by manufacturers.
But other countries have administered mix and match doses for first and second jabs. In Europe some governments approved mixing after concerns about a very rare side effect from AstraZeneca involving blood clotting led them to allow people who had been given it as a first dose to then have a different second vaccine.
In Turkey and Thailand, where there were concerns about efficacy of the Sinovac Chinese vaccine, some were offered an additional dose of Pfizer.
Clive Dix, former head of the UK government’s vaccines task force, said it was well known in scientific circles that “heterologous boosting” was more effective in increasing people’s immune response than giving another dose of the vaccine the individual had originally received.
“The science of vaccinology has shown . . . that if you boost somebody with a different vaccine construct you tend to get a stronger response than if you give them the same one again,” he added.

 

[Sunray]

I don't think I need it as I have had it, been vaccinated (AZ) and was recently in close contact with someone who the next day PCR tested positive for C-19. She's been feeling rubbish, I've been testing negative.

But will have it anyway. Getting it wasn't exactly fun, so happy to take anything that would give me a swerve on getting it again.

 

[Supine]

I’ve been thinking about boosters. I don’t think i will take one this year if offered. They should be going to other countries at the moment. I’m not in a vulnerable group though.

 

[2hats]

Good, I'd been meaning to ask you if it was expected to work the other way around. Fingers crossed.

Crotty confirmed the other day (TWiV 802) that there are several such studies underway. He suspects (no results yet - just his best guess) that vaccination then infection would provide some boost but the prior vaccine dose(s) likely would blunt the B cell response to some degree (it is, after all, the job of the vaccine to hamper the progression towards disease). So immunoresponse in that scenario might not be as great as that as has been seen in infection followed by vaccination (though better than vaccination alone). However, vaccination then infection (like infection then vaccination) might provide for a greater degree of IgG/IgA homing to the oronasal mucosa and saliva, than vaccination alone (since that is systemic) - so might aid in symptom/transmission reduction on subsequent reinfection.

He also commented that:

• he would be surprised if improved immune responses were not seen in all combinations of heterologous regimens - mRNA, viral vector, inactivated, protein subunit, etc.
• dosing interval needs to be tuned - of sufficient length to optimise immunoresponse (already noted in some comparative studies, eg DOIs: 10.1016/S2213-2600(21)00357-X, 10.2139/ssrn.3777268, 10.1101/2021.05.15.21257017). If the dosing interval is too short/frequent it might prematurely shut down B cell development in germinal centres thus truncating the affinity maturation process, interrupting somatic hypermutation, so potentially resulting in a poorer response to future infection - a reduction in quality and breadth to current and future variants.
• maybe all the vaccines (or more appropriately, exposures to viral proteins) might need to be three dose (episodes) to provide durable immunity due to the cost-benefit analysis that the evolutionary mechanism underlying affinity maturation performs with repeat exposures to antigen (cf tetanus, hepatitis B immunisation - notably those are dosed over 1 and then 6-12 month intervals).
• immunocompetents unlikely to need, indeed benefit to any significant degree from vaccines expressing other variant spike proteins as full maturation delivers sufficient breadth to handle VOCs.

 

[Sunray]

I’ve been thinking about boosters. I don’t think i will take one this year if offered. They should be going to other countries at the moment. I’m not in a vulnerable group though.

I'm in agreement with the sentiment of this statement as there is no question its the right thing to do. But the nuance is its not as simple as giving them away. Covid-19 vaccines: Why some African states can't use their vaccines

Getting all the infrastructure in place for mass (insert any entire population scale event here) requires serious thinking and logistics and money. Lots of vaccinations have expired since they were available. I'm leaning towards straight up cash being better than vaccines in this case.

 

[Cat Fan]

Is it just where I live, or have a good 50% of people stopped wearing face masks in shops?

 

[Elpenor]

Is it just where I live, or have a good 50% of people stopped wearing face masks in shops?

A mate was in Kendal yesterday and said it was only 20% wearing in shops

 

[Dogsauce]

Is it just where I live, or have a good 50% of people stopped wearing face masks in shops?

Yep, majority have given up now. I even went to a gig earlier this week, quite crowded, and I’d say under 10% masked up. Seems that ‘fuck other people’ is winning.

 

[StoneRoad]

So, the increase in cases comes as no surprise if people really are thinking that vaccines will protect them or, basically "fuck you and the risk to you".

I'm still masking up in crowded places, rarely go in shops

 

[Orang Utan]

i work in a library and today i was in a different branch to the one I usually work in and was surprised how different it was as so many more people were wearing masks. the demographic for the area is mainly middle class families and students, though a fair chunk of council tenants too. The place i normally work at is in a very deprived area and mask use is way less, presumably because of a) mistrust of officialdom and b) poor access to authentic information on health, risk, etc

 

[Elpenor]

I’m double jabbed, but am still quite heavily overweight so regard myself as still being at risk. I don’t go in shops unless I have to, and always do so masked.

I have been to a few restaurants (outside if possible) but no pubs. Live alone and rarely do any socialising as don’t know anyone here yet. Happy to keep doing that until covid is gone and my risk perception drops.

Going to a 40th party next weekend though which will be a big tester.

 

[Dogsauce]

I did my weekly shop at about 9:30 last night and there was hardly anybody else shopping, with nearly all masked. I might make this a regular shopping time as it felt much safer. Only went then as the mrs skipped going earlier in the day as traffic was bad.

 

[teuchter]

In many contexts i am now the only person wearing a mask and feel quite conspicuous for it.

Having completely avoided indoor restaurants and pubs for some time, I'm now going in a bit, don't feel entirely comfortable but am kind of resigned to things just gradually reverting to 'normal' now.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Is it just where I live, or have a good 50% of people stopped wearing face masks in shops?

Yeah to the point where I now feel weird about wearing one.

 

[StoneRoad]

F*****g javid - wants to stop tests for travellers. there was something previously about stopping the red >>>green codes / isolation for those entering the country.
and ditching checks (passports or whatever) for nightclubs and big events.

That 5h1te
plus the not jabbing over 12s (ie teenagers) on the same grounds that they were saying before, ie kids don't get it etc ...
and only giving boosters to extremely vulnerable instead of all the first cohorts ...

I am now becoming convinced that this F********g tory scum are more interested in getting the economy (& their donors income streams) up and running ...
and their attitude seems to be F***k the rest of you, you need to get back to work, and you can suffer & die until the (mythical) herd immunity is reached.

Sod that for a game of soldiers ...
The economy can be resuscitated, but you can't resurrect the 134,144 poor souls that have already died [and the daily average is now 140 more lost] and cure the devastation that has caused to the affected families and friends.

Fuck me, I'm depressed with this all this callousness.
[apologies for the rant]

 

[cupid_stunt]

F*****g javid -
and ditching checks (passports or whatever) for nightclubs and big events.

That was never going to happen, there wasn't the numbers for it in the commons.

plus the not jabbing over 12s (ie teenagers) on the same grounds that they were saying before, ie kids don't get it etc ...

That could change this week, when the Chief Medical Officers report back to Javid.

and only giving boosters to extremely vulnerable instead of all the first cohorts ...

If you mean boosters for all over 50s, that too is likely to be going ahead, just waiting on the advice as to whether they will mix vaccines, so you get a different one to the first 2 jabs.

 

[Cloo]

I've just had our 'riskiest' activity since this all began: Hamilton in packed theatre on Friday, though we were at back and not surrounded on all sides - almost 0 mask wearing. Went to a fringe show this morning, although that was a much smaller, with spread out audience.

I am keeping an eye on my NHS app - it is Yom Kippur later this week and although all services are masked, I will not go to any or have family over to break fast, if I get pinged even though I'm vaccinated. gsv had two days in the office this week and found his colleague had been exposed the two days before by someone else there, but the guy gsv worked with was negative fortunately. I guess this is where vaccines help - there's not such a sense of inevitability if people are exposed.

People are still good with masks in shops around here, but are getting really shit on the tube. If you get on at a busy time, still pretty good, but a lot of people don't seem to bother if it's quieter, even when it gets busy subsequently. My heart sinks slightly now when I hear loud conversation as people get on, as that inevitably means a group none of whom will wear a mask.

 

[elbows]

There is all sorts of bit and bobs in this article including one companies analysis of what level of cases and hospital admissions would put the NHS under so much pressure that it faced being overwhelmed. And they mention someone who has analysed hospital admissions by age in a manner that allows them to draw attention to the rising age, a subject I've been complaining hasnt received attention.

It is forecast that hospitalisations would need to hit 1,500 a day for the NHS to once again become overwhelmed by Covid-19 – a figure that could be reached within the next two months if certain measures are not reintroduced.

New analysis from the science analytics company Airfinity shows that the hospitalisation threshold that has led to previous lockdowns in the UK could be met in mid-November if admissions continue to rise unabated. It’s estimated that daily infections will need to surpass 50,500 to reach this point – 37,622 daily infections were recorded on Friday.

Separate analysis from Colin Angus, a senior research fellow and health inequalities modeller at the University of Sheffield, shows that the majority of hospital admissions in July were among those aged 25-34.

However, since early August, the highest admission rates have been recorded in the 75-84 age bracket, and are “clearly rising” in the over-65s.

“There’s a definite shift towards cases being older now compared to six weeks ago,” said Angus. He suggested this is unlikely to be a result of waning immunity among these groups, which have high vaccination rates, but because cases are beginning to rise.

There is plenty else I consider worth quoting in the article but I'll leave it at that for now.

Covid hospitalisations moving in ‘alarming’ direction, NHS officials say

Admissions are once again rising among older age groups, and come at a time of ‘exceptional demand for urgent and emergency care’ within hospitals

www.independent.co.uk

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Boris rules out future lockdowns: Boris Johnson to scrap draconian lockdown laws in Covid Winter plan

How long will he take to do a u turn on this? Get yer bets in!

 

[BristolEcho]

Boris rules out future lockdowns: Boris Johnson to scrap draconian lockdown laws in Covid Winter plan

How long will he take to do a u turn on this? Get yer bets in!

"Draconian" ffs.

 

[andysays]

"Draconian" ffs.

Maybe if they'd been a bit more "draconian" earlier, we wouldn't be in this situation now...

Covid: More than 300,000 suspected of breaking quarantine rules​

Nearly a third of people arriving in England and Northern Ireland as the coronavirus Delta variant took off may have broken quarantine rules. More than 300,000 cases were passed to investigators between March and May, according to figures seen by the BBC. The government was not able to say how many of these were found to have broken the rules or could not be traced.

 

[elbows]

Boris rules out future lockdowns: Boris Johnson to scrap draconian lockdown laws in Covid Winter plan

How long will he take to do a u turn on this? Get yer bets in!

Predictions are harder these days. I'll wait for formal announcements tomorrow. It does seem like they are making a very large show of all the stuff they are abandoning, probably in order to deal with tory party politics as much as anything. So I will be sure to pay special attention to what quietly remains on the books.