At the risk of repeating myself,
I have no idea where all this is heading. Cases are as high as they were in January, yet with hospital admissions currently much lower (deaths too), we appear to be in the twilight zone with only one direction of travel, guaranteed to increase at least positive cases. I don't understand how that can coexist with normality.
At the risk of...
Cases breached previously detected levels in Scotland, but for the other nations and regions of England, that point hasnt been reached just yet. There are a few age groups in a few regions that I can zoom in on which have reached or gone past previous waves highs, but not the overall figures.
Although we also need to consider the difference between positive cases detected via testing, and the actual number of infections in reality. Including chances to the testing regime over time. General population survey testing provides clues about how the present level of infection compares to past waves, but only in hindsight since it lags behind the picture we get via testing of symptomatic people & contacts.
The current situation and what will come in the next weeks cannot really coexist with the old sense of normality. Even the government knows this, so this wave is considered to be part of the push back towards normality, rather than actually arriving at that destination. Its a high risk approach not only in terms of public health, but also politically there will be heavy ramifications if they've pushed too far and this whole exit attempt blows up in their face. Even then they will have a consolation prize in mind, the idea that this is the exit wave and either via vaccines or via getting infected, after this wave they will expect population immunity levels to be reasonably good, further unlocking their 'back to business as usual' destination. 'If at first you dont succeed, try try again' is in play.
The great unknowns remain whether the numbers of this variant vs the vaccines will add up, and whether even if the government get away with their plan this time or in the near future, what variants may come along to spoil the viability of their approach at any point.