Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Regarding hospitalisations, this is what happens if I zoom into more recent months and smooth the results using 7 day averages. Sorry that I dont think all the colours match the previous graph.

I havent posted this sort of graph much in recent weeks because there isnt that much to see, thankfully.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Cheers. Yeah Im not happy about it either, and find myself wanting them to get away with it because I dont want to see a huge number of new deaths, but at the same time I dont want them to validate their shit establishment instincts.

Very nicely put. Welcome the outcome, but not the method.

 

[elbows]

Very nicely put. Welcome the outcome, but not the method.

Plus we wont really have a proper view of the outcome until we know more about what burden things like long covid will have in the years ahead. They could win the current battle but still lose the war.

 

[elbows]

Looking at the case graphs by region I posted, is it fair to say the media have done a shit job of highlighting the situation in the North East and Yorkshire?

The North East is likely one of the regions I will do the age group case graphs for later, given its steep trajectory.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Plus we wont really have a proper view of the outcome until we know more about what burden things like long covid will have in the years ahead. They could win the current battle but still lose the war.

Long covid is a huge can of worms.

I don't know many people that have had Covid, maybe five, but two of those were quite unwell for a long time, one still is.

 

[Brainaddict]

Sorry, yes you did, and I don't doubt you were right.

More of a rhetorical question.

I find this approach terrifying, absolutely terrifying. From a medical point of view, it is an extraordinarily dangerous gamble. Hosp[ital admissions are rising, and although the patients by and large are less ill, that isn't guaranteed to continue.

I sometimes think that they are incapable of basic maths, though I know they must have people doing modelling. But the policy makers don't seem to understand that if you let the virus run free the vaccination protection statistics don't look as good any more. 80% protection sounds great but 20% of a big number is still big, and at some point the deaths start to mount up again even if they are 1%. And that's before you even get to the long covid problem, which we don't know how much protection the vaccines offer against yet (probably some, but since you can get long covid with mild illness, probably not enough). But I can barely summon the anger any more. I expended too much watching the delta cases arrive in the country by the hundred, knowing full well where we would be a few weeks later.

 

[elbows]

I sometimes think that they are incapable of basic maths, though I know they must have people doing modelling. But the policy makers don't seem to understand that if you let the virus run free the vaccination protection statistics don't look as good any more. 80% protection sounds great but 20% of a big number is still big, and at some point the deaths start to mount up again even if they are 1%. And that's before you even get to the long covid problem, which we don't know how much protection the vaccines offer against yet (probably some, but since you can get long covid with mild illness, probably not enough). But I can barely summon the anger any more. I expended too much watching the delta cases arrive in the country by the hundred, knowing full well where we would be a few weeks later.

The quite wide range of possibilities shown by modelling, combined with a fairly high establishment tolerance for death and hospital woe, unlocked this approach for them.

They were prepared to delay some unlocking steps because it was the last chance to do something without having to ditch the 'no going backwards' rhetoric. They will be very reluctant to have to go further with measures, and in that respect the equations we've seen before are still in play - they will only act if forced to by hospitalisation etc figures breaching some threshold. Unlike previous occasions, there is not quite the same inevitability to that picture this time, and so they've made the most of that by taking the piss. The authorities have ripped the pants out of it and it just remains to be seen whether they get away with having their buttocks on full display in this wave. They might.

 

[elbows]

Be interested to see some graphs of the relationship between positive tests = hospitalizations = deaths from a month last year and last month. If you get what I mean!

In addition to whatever you can glean from my separate graphs, it looks like someone has done this on twitter for Scotland. I havent checked their numbers. And I'm bound to want to wait till hospital picture & data has had time to catch up with the current level of infections before reaching a final conclusion.

 

[andysays]

They specifically stop that.

Not suggesting you're wrong, but I would be interested in seeing exactly what they do say, if you have a link

(insert obligatory "asking for a friend" comment here)

 

[LDC]

In addition to whatever you can glean from my separate graphs, it looks like someone has done this on twitter for Scotland. I havent checked their numbers. And I'm bound to want to wait till hospital picture & data has had time to catch up with the current level of infections before reaching a final conclusion.

Oh, that's a nice way of showing it! I was trying to think through how it could be done easily, but the maths bit of my brain died a long time ago.

 

[maomao]

Not suggesting you're wrong, but I would be interested in seeing exactly what they do say, if you have a link

(insert obligatory "asking for a friend" comment here)

You're not (or weren't) allowed physical contact with anyone from outside your household. Fairly clearly covers sexual relationships. Maybe specifically is the wrong word. I was posting from the queue in Lidl.

 

[andysays]

You're not (or weren't) allowed physical contact with anyone from outside your household. Fairly clearly covers sexual relationships. Maybe specifically is the wrong word. I was posting from the queue in Lidl.

OK, thanks for that.

 

[elbows]

Oh, that's a nice way of showing it! I was trying to think through how it could be done easily, but the maths bit of my brain died a long time ago.

I've somewhat copied the idea now, as I'd been looking for a neat way to show what the ratio of covid patients in hospital to covid patients in mechanical ventilation beds was like.

I've been rather lazy when creating this graph so in order to make the scale of the ventilator cases about the same as the hospitalisations, and show then on a single graph, I've multiplied all the mechanical ventilation numbers by minus 10.

This graph is for the North West region. The region is continuing the trend I previously drew attention to in relation to places like Bolton. A trend I am not happy about, and indeed this is the main sign I havent liked the look of in the hospital data for this wave so far.

 

[AverageJoe]

Gina's dad must be gutted and ashamed. He didn't even get a contract out of it.

Her dad Rino is a millionaire businessman who is the boss of the international pharmaceutical company Rephine.

 

[elbows]

 

[Brainaddict]

The quite wide range of possibilities shown by modelling, combined with a fairly high establishment tolerance for death and hospital woe, unlocked this approach for them.

They were prepared to delay some unlocking steps because it was the last chance to do something without having to ditch the 'no going backwards' rhetoric. They will be very reluctant to have to go further with measures, and in that respect the equations we've seen before are still in play - they will only act if forced to by hospitalisation etc figures breaching some threshold. Unlike previous occasions, there is not quite the same inevitability to that picture this time, and so they've made the most of that by taking the piss. The authorities have ripped the pants out of it and it just remains to be seen whether they get away with having their buttocks on full display in this wave. They might.

If they get away with it because deaths aren't too high and hospitals aren't overwhelmed I will then expect stories in six months time about how we are all 'surprised' by the rate at which people have been getting long covid, and since it is so surprising there will be no consequences for anyone. There will be no discussion about how when it comes to ruining the long term health of tens/hundreds of thousands of people maybe you should err on the side of caution. It's all quite depressing.

 

[elbows]

Labour not at their worst in regards the pandemic at the moment.

2h ago 17:45

This is what Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said in his response to Javid about how the government should be more cautious about lockdown easing. Ashworth said:

Today, Javid let it be known that the July 19 reopening will go ahead. He told the news this morning that ‘there is no going back’; that lifting restrictions will be ‘irreversible”.
A word to the wise: I’ve responded to a lot these statements now. I remember being told ‘there was nothing in the data’ to suggest June 21 would not go ahead. I remember children returning to school for one day before the January lockdown was imposed.
We saw 84,000 Covid cases in the last week, a 61% increase. Today, we see the highest case rate since January.
If the trends continue we could hit 35,000 to 45,000 cases a day by July 19. That means more long covid. More disruption to schooling. And for some, hospitalisation.
We know even after two doses you can still catch and transmit. So what is he going to do push infections down? Vaccination will do it eventually, but not in the next four weeks.
I want to see an end to restrictions end. Our constituents want it. But I hope his confidence about July 19 does not prove somewhat premature? Or even dare I say it hubristic.

 

[elbows]

A total scandal that the national authorities let the inadequate mask situation carry on all the way through. I cant think what excuses are really left, and its a joke that the following sort of research is required in order to try to draw attention to something that is bloody obvious without the need for such research.

Covid: Masks upgrade cuts infection risk, research finds

Wearing a high grade FFP3 mask can almost entirely protect health workers from Covid, research finds.

www.bbc.co.uk

I dont suppose anyone has stumbled upon the list of 17 trusts? Maybe I have even seen it before and forgotten.

The Cambridge trust is among 17 across the UK known to have decided to upgrade PPE regardless of national policy.

All the government really seem to have done about this issue is to hide behind these kind of weasel words throughout:

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said guidance on PPE standards was regularly updated to reflect the latest science.

"The safety of the NHS and social care staff has always been our top priority and we continue to work round the clock to deliver PPE to protect those on the frontline.

"Emerging evidence and data are continually monitored and reviewed and guidance will be amended accordingly if appropriate."

 

[Buddy Bradley]

I don't understand why all the news coverage about the possible change in school policy is framed as "300% increase in children being sent home to isolate" rather than "300% increase in positive Covid cases in schools". They seem to just treat the two things as unrelated.

 

[wtfftw]

I don't understand why all the news coverage about the possible change in school policy is framed as "300% increase in children being sent home to isolate" rather than "300% increase in positive Covid cases in schools". They seem to just treat the two things as unrelated.

Isolation is definitely the problem. We can fix that. We can't fix case rates...

Ministers set to end automatic isolation for pupils in England

Move means hundreds of thousands of children will no longer have to stay at home after contact with Covid case

www.theguardian.com

 

[wtfftw]

Gaaaaah

 

[quimcunx]

A total scandal that the national authorities let the inadequate mask situation carry on all the way through. I cant think what excuses are really left, and its a joke that the following sort of research is required in order to try to draw attention to something that is bloody obvious without the need for such research.

Covid: Masks upgrade cuts infection risk, research finds

Wearing a high grade FFP3 mask can almost entirely protect health workers from Covid, research finds.

www.bbc.co.uk

I dont suppose anyone has stumbled upon the list of 17 trusts? Maybe I have even seen it before and forgotten.



All the government really seem to have done about this issue is to hide behind these kind of weasel words throughout:

The whole PPE fiasco can seem like it was a long time ago, but for one this was news to me that PPE had only been brought up to standard in some places, not nationally and for two it's important it isn't forgotten. Letting PPE run down, get out of date, ignoring advice from those pandemic planning scenarios I've forgotten the name of, the PPE contracts scam etc. People should be jailed for it, IMO.

 

[Griff]

Over 7 Hours of footage of Sunday's 'Ravers Against Restrictions' in London.

'Shocking scenes' says The Daily Express.

 

[elbows]

The whole PPE fiasco can seem like it was a long time ago, but for one this was news to me that PPE had only been brought up to standard in some places, not nationally and for two it's important it isn't forgotten.

Probably because although the media made a noise about this issue for a time during the first wave, especially when nurses had to resort to wearing bin bags, they soon got bored and stopped giving it the attention it deserved.

 

[Orang Utan]

Over 7 Hours of footage of Sunday's 'Ravers Against Restrictions' in London.

'Shocking scenes' says The Daily Express.

Bunch of wallies

 

[LDC]

Over 7 Hours of footage of Sunday's 'Ravers Against Restrictions' in London.

'Shocking scenes' says The Daily Express.

Ah great, you're back posting videos like that with no worthwhile comment, just what we needed.

 

[Griff]

Just showing activity in London.

 

[elbows]

I've been messing around with case numbers by age groups for England, using 7 day averages to smooth things out. Dates are by test specimen date, so the very latest dates are always incomplete.

I still dont know if I've mangled any of this data whilst processing it, but assuming I've got it right, it does indicate a few things.

I'd say there are two ways to avoid complete horror in this wave. Vaccines could reduce the level of illness experienced by so many people that really high case numbers dont translate into massive hospital woe, and the following data says nothing about that. But the other hope was that cases would not rise much in older people. But looking at this data, I think the pattern shown means that the only hope of that is if the peak for all age groups arrives sooner rather than later.....

I normally avoid using graphs with logarithmic scales because I know they confuse some people. But in this instance I have used one for the second graph because it really illuminates the picture with the older age groups in this data. Both graphs show the very same data, its just one uses a logarithmic scale.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Which is the church showing at the end of the road?

 

[elbows]

bimble I know I promised I would provide something about how male and female case numbers compared once I had processed that data.

So here are the same number of positive cases by specimen data for England, smoothed using 7 day averages. Again I'm having to assume I havent mangled the data involved.

We are at a stage where the number of males testing positive has gone very slightly above the number of females, but they are still rather close together so it doesnt show up that well on the graph yet.


Likely I will do something similar for deaths etc at some point, but I'm not working on that data at the moment so it will have to wait.