Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[David Clapson]

Well well. Being perpetually single I must have missed that bit.

 

[quimcunx]

I think if you had two people living alone you could meet online then for a walk then form a bubble. I don't think that was the case here.

 

[Thora]

But shouldn't the law permit people to start a new relationship? I don't think the rules are supposed to stop us doing that.

You can start a new relationship, but you can't snog them in your office.

 

[David Clapson]

But without the Office Snog stage a lot of relationships would never get started.

 

[maomao]

Well well. Being perpetually single I must have missed that bit.

Not surprised if you think Hancock's behaviour was reasonable.

 

[Thora]

But without the Office Snog stage a lot of relationships would never get started.

Yeah a lot of relationships probably didn't get started during the pandemic That's the point isn't it? Lots of people stuck on their own, going for socially distanced walks while the Health Sec is ignoring his own rules and feeling up his staff.

 

[gentlegreen]

Just had a text from my GP surgery warning that appointments are going to be more difficult to get again due to a local surge (delta) - thankfully I don't need to go there for a couple of months.
I was building up to getting my teeth fixed though - and have been waiting for the various "openings up" ...

Meanwhile, in my usually very well-behaved part of Bristol, two days in a row there have been maskless people in two different supermarkets - including the staff ...

 

[miss direct]

People are so much better behaved with masks here in Malvern compared to Sheffield.

I'm travelling back today. Paying more to go on the train because the coach experience was so unpleasant.

 

[elbows]

Scotland broke another record for reported cases, but no need to worry as their finance finance secretary says their government are being as cautious as possible

Covid in Scotland: New cases pass 3,000 to reach new record high

A further 3,285 cases of the virus have been recorded in Scotland, with 12.6% of tests positive.

www.bbc.co.uk

In terms of UK hospitalisations, things are going about as well as they could possibly have hoped for, which is why we are hearing all sorts of optimistic noises from the UK government at the moment. Having studied the modelling it seems reasonable to say that things have an appearance of going much better on that front than the modelling implied, but in terms of timing its actually still too early to be confident that reality will be quite different to the alarming modelling scenarios. So I have to see if this holds true for the next few weeks before I start to feel my worst case fears slipping away, to be replaced by something still unpleasant but not on the scale seen previously. And I'm probably going to have to study the detail more thoroughly since some kind of rise in hospitalisations is still on the cards, so it might take a while before I can tell the difference between a curve that will lead to something far below previous peaks, and something that quickly turns into a complete nightmare.

In other words, hope is not lost at this stage, the numbers are within a range where it is not utterly inevitable that my worst case fears will fully materialise. But neither would I be ready yet to cash in that hope for something more substantial and irreversible.

 

[elbows]

Things that would kill that hope for me: A large spread of cases into higher age groups over time. An alarming trajectory in regards hospitalisations (and deaths).

Things that will allow that hope to blossom and solidify: The passing of time without the above happening.

Current enablers of hope: Some of the data (but certainly not overall case numbers & trajectory). The vaccines being rather good and having passed the stress test so far.

Really I suppose I'm just waiting to see that the vaccines pass the next stages of stress test, where an ever increasing load will be placed on them. If that happens, then my attitude to the pandemic will evolve.

 

[elbows]

When my impression of this wave and my pandemic attitude will change: Probably sometime between 4pm today and 4 weeks time*

*Will inevitably take longer to form a happier impression of this wave than it will to breathe a sign of relief, so the earliest prospect, 4pm today, is reserved only for gloomy direction of travel, I dont think I can become optimistic about the situation for a minimum of 2 weeks, and more likely 3 or 4. But we are already in a period where I am at least prepared to acknowledge the more optimistic possibilities rather than utterly dismiss them as fantasy incompatible with a bad pandemic.

 

[xenon]

What I was referring to is people not wanting to go to the GP/hospital out of fear of being infected, and also many vital surgeries being cancelled. Of course the NHS does what it can but cancer treatment has fallen by the wayside somewhat. It's debatable what role lockdowns and government messaging has played.

The services were curtailed because the amount of the virus in circulation and the pressures that was putting the NHS under. It’s difficult enough to get a GP appointment round here anyway, and no chance of a face-to-face one in the last 18 months.

 

[quimcunx]

Perhaps Sturgeon has just given up, crossed her fingers that 1. they just be able to limp to the finish line of schools shutting for summer and 2. that all the holidays people will now go on will magically not do what travel and fraternising does, and 3. vaccinations will keep hospital figures low. Then something, something, sunlit uplands.

 

[elbows]

The best way to protect healthcare systems in a pandemic like this one is to do the sort of thing Australia did. Repeatedly try to nip things in the bud so that levels of infection in the community never reach the point where too many health workers get infected or have to isolate, where the public dont substantially fear heathcare settings infection risk, and where very few desperately ill covid patients and patients with other problems who dont even know they've got covid come through the hospitals doors.

Not that Australia is out of the woods yet, they face probably their most serious challenge yet at the moment. But anyway the approach mentioned is a million miles away from anything the UK has ever been interested in. Orthodox establishment attitudes towards genuine containment attempts remain unchanged, as we've seen again recently with Delta. Half-hearted containment that is really more about surveillance of the variant than actually stopping it. The usual. Most of the other arguments about healthcare burden in the pandemic are red herrings, because with or without specific bits of lockdowns being implemented, there will be massive disruption whenever levels of infection grow past a low level.

Learning to live with covid should mean keeping levels low enough not to cause all this stress to the health system. But the UK employs a different, higher stakes version of learning to live with covid, which means us having to live with the ongoing lack of care and shit priorities that our establishment treats us to as standard. Stiff upper lip, morgue edition.

 

[elbows]

Perhaps Sturgeon has just given up, crossed her fingers that 1. they just be able to limp to the finish line of schools shutting for summer and 2. that all the holidays people will now go on will magically not do what travel and fraternising does, and 3. vaccinations will keep hospital figures low. Then something, something, sunlit uplands.

They might even get away with it, especially given their different school holiday timing. Which will be great in some ways, but runs the risk of some very bad lessons being learnt which could damage public and political attitudes in a manner that stores up problems for some later wave.

 

[Sue]

Perhaps Sturgeon has just given up, crossed her fingers that 1. they just be able to limp to the finish line of schools shutting for summer and 2. that all the holidays people will now go on will magically not do what travel and fraternising does, and 3. vaccinations will keep hospital figures low. Then something, something, sunlit uplands.

I think they've limped. Know it's slightly different timings in different regions, but know Glasgow and the Borders at least finished up last week. (It's normally last week in June IIRC?)

 

[Sasaferrato]

Another guy at work has tested positive. Not connected to the other guy who had it a couple of weeks ago, this one caught it from his girlfriend. She's just left school in an area of the city where there's currently a positivity rate of over a thousand people per 100,000

I ask again, WTF is the Scottish government playing at. Earlier in the pandemic, the 'stages hammer' came down swiftly.

There are only five areas that should be in Level 1. Everywhere bar those five should be in L3 or L4.

 

[quimcunx]

I think they've limped. Know it's slightly different timings in different regions, but know Glasgow and the Borders at least finished up last week. (It's normally last week in June IIRC?)

Yes. I think one of my gidgets doesn't finish until today but the rest have.

 

[elbows]

I ask again, WTF is the Scottish government playing at. Earlier in the pandemic, the 'stages hammer' came down swiftly.

I already answered you last time. They are following the UK approach where they give much less of a shit about case numbers this time, and are happy to let it rip so long as it doesnt cause a problem with hospital admission levels.

 

[elbows]

Positive cases by date of specimen, smoothed via 7 day averages. There is always a little downturn at the end of these figures because they are by specimen date and the latest dates data hasnt all come in yet.

 

[LDC]

I already answered you last time. They are following the UK approach where they give much less of a shit about case numbers this time, and are happy to let it ri so long as it doesnt cause a problem with hospital admission levels.

Yeah, just looking at the numbers today cases are going up, but looks like hospitalizations are still much lower, and then deaths are steady-ish at low numbers as well.

 

[cupid_stunt]

We only broke the 18k case number on Saturday, today's new cases reported are 12,868, 7-day average up +69.9%.

 

[elbows]

And the same graphs for the worst affected regions of England so far in this wave:

 

[LDC]

Be interested to see some graphs of the relationship between positive tests = hospitalizations = deaths from a month last year and last month. If you get what I mean!

 

[glitch hiker]

"irreversible, no going back"

Fourth wave it is then

 

[elbows]

Be interested to see some graphs of the relationship between positive tests = hospitalizations = deaths from a month last year and last month. If you get what I mean!

Yeah, I'm waiting till the hospital situation has a bit more time to evolve before doing such things. But its fair to ay that so far the link, whilst not broken, has been massively changed. But since explosive growth in case numbers has been happening more recently, I need to wait a bit.

I'll also be doing some more graphs showing age groups affected, since those tell a story of their own.

But for now some more of the same graphs as above.

 

[elbows]

Since I already posted so many graphs I wont bore everyone with the other regions and nations right now, they are all broadly like the following one at this point but I obviously expect that to change:

 

[Sasaferrato]

I already answered you last time. They are following the UK approach where they give much less of a shit about case numbers this time, and are happy to let it rip so long as it doesnt cause a problem with hospital admission levels.

Sorry, yes you did, and I don't doubt you were right.

More of a rhetorical question.

I find this approach terrifying, absolutely terrifying. From a medical point of view, it is an extraordinarily dangerous gamble. Hosp[ital admissions are rising, and although the patients by and large are less ill, that isn't guaranteed to continue.

 

[elbows]

In terms of hospitalisations this wave so far compared to the last one tells quite the story so far, but its still relatively early days. This is for daily admissions/diagnoses in England by region.



I'll do a couple of age-based case graphs later, but probably just for a couple of regions to keep the number of graphs down.

 

[elbows]

Sorry, yes you did, and I don't doubt you were right.

More of a rhetorical question.

I find this approach terrifying, absolutely terrifying. From a medical point of view, it is an extraordinarily dangerous gamble. Hosp[ital admissions are rising, and although the patients by and large are less ill, that isn't guaranteed to continue.

Cheers. Yeah Im not happy about it either, and find myself wanting them to get away with it because I dont want to see a huge number of new deaths, but at the same time I dont want them to validate their shit establishment instincts.