Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[sheothebudworths]

Another new record for this wave - 18,270 new cases reported today, 7-day average up +54.4%.

Patients admitted to hospital, 7-day average are 'only' up +10.3%, which is sort of good news.

However, new deaths reported 23, 7-day average up +60.8%.

Highlighted bit is only up until the 22nd, mind - so that figure doesn't actually line up with the other two, iyswim.

For eg - the last data on that, for England, was the following day when numbers rose from 182 to 214 -

DateSorted column (descending) - Apply ascending sort.	England dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Northern Ireland dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Scotland dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Wales dailyUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	England totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Northern Ireland totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Scotland totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.	Wales totalUnsorted column - Apply ascending sort.
24-06-2021	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	0	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	8	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	9,480	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	32,214
23-06-2021	214	2	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	5	403,997	9,480	N/AData not currently available for this metric.	32,206
22-06-2021	182	4	35	6	403,783	9,478	25,583	32,201
21-06-2021	181	2	30	10	403,601	9,474	25,548	32,195
20-06-2021	171	0	27	5	403,420	9,472	25,518	32,185

 

[elbows]

In recent times we've gone from a period where data made optimists nervous to the point that they conceded delaying step 4 was probably sensible. Then there was a period where the rate of case increases seemed less, and some of the optimists started to revert to their standard form. But rise in case numbers in the data has been rather explosive again recently, and the nerves are back for them. Since I am not one of the optimists, my stance mostly remains 'emergency, emergency!', with only some relatively brief moments where I become less fearful of this wave.

Now isnt the right time for me to start waving various graphs around because there is a data processing issue for cases in England which means some are missing from todays dashboard update. So I will wait till later in this coming week before I share some charts which give examples of what I am on about in terms of explosive growth.

For anyone that is still looking to avoid catching this virus, who doesnt want to rely on vaccines alone, and who are looking to update their sense of risk, its probably a good idea to read the following sort of articles. Including paying attention to how a country like Australia, with a very different approach (and very different level of vaccinated population) is handling public communication about the Delta variant.

Covid Delta variant is ‘in the air you breathe’: what you need to know about Sydney outbreak strain

Delta strain is significantly more infectious but it spreads the same way as the original virus – including by ‘fleeting’ encounters and respiratory aerosols

www.theguardian.com

Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines

Analysis: research suggests ‘scarily fleeting’ contact could infect, and that places with high jab rates are susceptible

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

A fair chunk of the explosive growth is probably in student populations.

Leeds waits for vaccine as Covid rates go sky-high in student areas

Coronavirus rates in parts of the city are 10 times the UK average as the authorities play catch-up in giving out jabs

www.theguardian.com

 

[weepiper]

Another guy at work has tested positive. Not connected to the other guy who had it a couple of weeks ago, this one caught it from his girlfriend. She's just left school in an area of the city where there's currently a positivity rate of over a thousand people per 100,000

 

[elbows]

G7 and the limit of vaccines news:

BBC presenter Andrew Marr has revealed he suffered a “nasty” bout of Covid-19 despite having already received both vaccine doses.

The journalist told viewers on his flagship show that he thinks he got the disease while covering the G7 summit in Cornwall earlier this month. When interviewing London mayor Sadiq Khan he said: “I think I got mine at the G7 in Cornwall.”

He also said: “I had a bit of Covid last week despite being double-jabbed, and very nasty it was too.”

Andrew Marr had ‘very nasty’ Covid despite being double jabbed and believes he caught at G7 in Cornwall

‘I had a bit of Covid last week despite being double-jabbed and very nasty it was too’

www.independent.co.uk

 

[elbows]

What is truly different about the current situation, he says, is that every constituent part of the system is desperately struggling to cope.

“Sometimes you get lots of pressures on GPs, or the ambulance service, or A&E, or urgent operations, or on pharmacies or dentists,” he says.

“What you don’t normally get is all of that at the same time and that’s why clinicians are saying this is ‘unprecedented’ - the escape valves aren’t there.”

A midwinter NHS crisis in midsummer

Extreme pressure in primary care is spilling over into hospitals, along with an uptick in winter viruses and a fresh surge of Covid. “The question I get asked the most is ‘when is it back to normal - when is it back to normal?’ And there is no date.”

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

 

[Cloo]

About 125 students in my work got pinged by Track and Trace on Thursday. 20 staff mainly in admin and reception are isolating for ten days too, looks like our 4 week term extension will end 3 weeks early on Wednesday.

About a third of Year 10 at daughter's school were sent home the day before her bat mitzvah

 

[FridgeMagnet]

A midwinter NHS crisis in midsummer

Extreme pressure in primary care is spilling over into hospitals, along with an uptick in winter viruses and a fresh surge of Covid. “The question I get asked the most is ‘when is it back to normal - when is it back to normal?’ And there is no date.”

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk

"System that was fucked beforehand and already failing" in "surge in demand causes it to be even fuckeder" shock.

But that counts for the entire time really. The mental health system can't cope with the uptick in patients? It couldn't cope beforehand either.

 

[Cat Fan]

Just had a PCR test for the Lambeth surge. There's a testing facility in the middle of Brixton but hardly any takers, even though it's very busy with shoppers and people ambling around enjoying themselves.

The one in Brockwell Park is very quiet as well. Me/my wife often walk past and there's never anyone there getting a test.

 

[Cat Fan]

"System that was fucked beforehand and already failing" in "surge in demand causes it to be even fuckeder" shock.

But that counts for the entire time really. The mental health system can't cope with the uptick in patients? It couldn't cope beforehand either.

Yes, completely. If we had to wait until there is no pressure on the NHS before we ended lockdown then would still be in lockdown in 2100. Lockdown causes different kinds of health problems, like fewer people being treated for cancer.

 

[maomao]

Lockdown causes different kinds of health problems, like fewer people being treated for cancer.

This is a lie regularly used by anti lockdown nutjobs. It is hospitals and the NHS being under pressure that causes cancer treatments to be postponed and cancelled as well as slowing down GP referrals. Without lockdowns hospitals would have been treating covid and little else.

 

[LDC]

I agree, that's oft repeated 'common sense' that's actually bollocks. Under-funding etc. are the root causes for that, not lockdowns. And without lockdowns it would all have been much worse for people with other non-covid conditions.

 

[LDC]

Anyway, came on here to say it's not a good indicator that I a bit wish Hancock was still in the HS job. Javid, especially going by his first words to camera, is going to be much more anti-lockdown than Hancock was. Nothing about health of the country, that people that have died/suffered, etc. just 'get over the pandemic and back to normal' asap stuff, urgh.

 

[maomao]

Anyway, came on here to say it's not a good indicator that I a bit wish Hancock was still in the HS job. Javid, especially going by his first words to camera, is going to be much more anti-lockdown than Hancock was. Nothing about health of the country, that people that have died/suffered, etc. just 'get over the pandemic and back to normal' asap stuff, urgh.

I agree. He actually said he was going to 'end the pandemic' but I think we all know what he meant.

 

[Cat Fan]

This is a lie regularly used by anti lockdown nutjobs. It is hospitals and the NHS being under pressure that causes cancer treatments to be postponed and cancelled as well as slowing down GP referrals. Without lockdowns hospitals would have been treating covid and little else.

What I was referring to is people not wanting to go to the GP/hospital out of fear of being infected, and also many vital surgeries being cancelled. Of course the NHS does what it can but cancer treatment has fallen by the wayside somewhat. It's debatable what role lockdowns and government messaging has played.

 

[Artaxerxes]

"System that was fucked beforehand and already failing" in "surge in demand causes it to be even fuckeder" shock.

But that counts for the entire time really. The mental health system can't cope with the uptick in patients? It couldn't cope beforehand either.

Britain's mental health service has been functionally deceased for a long time.

 

[David Clapson]

Is anyone bothered by Hancock's flouting of the social distancing rule? There were lots of good reasons for him to go, but it needs to be legal to transition to a new partner outside your household. That's just life. If Hancock and his new squeeze stick to the rules in other respects, the risk of them causing more transmissions is negligible.

 

[Artaxerxes]

What I was referring to is people not wanting to go to the GP/hospital out of fear of being infected, and also many vital surgeries being cancelled. Of course the NHS does what it can but cancer treatment has fallen by the wayside somewhat. It's debatable what role lockdowns and government messaging has played.

GPs also essentially pulled up the drawbridge, it's next to impossible to get an appointment even over the phone.

 

[maomao]

What I was referring to is people not wanting to go to the GP/hospital out of fear of being infected, and also many vital surgeries being cancelled.

Surgeries have been cancelled because NHS resources have been concentrated on covid, and because of the amount of covid in hospitals, not because they've been locked down. And why would people not fear being infected without lockdowns? Lockdowns kept the infection rate down at the peaks. Or do you think it's all been overhyped?

GP services seem to have ended up being biased towards their elderly regulars but again they would either have had to implement infection control or the death figures would have been twice as high as they were.

 

[maomao]

Is anyone bothered by Hancock's flouting of the social distancing rule? There were lots of good reasons for him to go, but it needs to be legal to transition to a new partner outside your household. That's just life. If Hancock and his new squeeze stick to the rules in other respects, the risk of them causing more transmissions is negligible.

This is just nonsense. It's basically been illegal for people to have new sexual relationships for most of the last year. That includes ' transitioning to a new partner'.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It's certainly not easy for GPs, what with having to manage infection controls at surgeries, a surge in demand, whilst also delivering the bulk of the vaccination programme, delivering around 75% of jabs, with the other 25% being done directly by the NHS & their appointed pharmacies.

 

[quimcunx]

In recent times we've gone from a period where data made optimists nervous to the point that they conceded delaying step 4 was probably sensible. Then there was a period where the rate of case increases seemed less, and some of the optimists started to revert to their standard form. But rise in case numbers in the data has been rather explosive again recently, and the nerves are back for them. Since I am not one of the optimists, my stance mostly remains 'emergency, emergency!', with only some relatively brief moments where I become less fearful of this wave.

Now isnt the right time for me to start waving various graphs around because there is a data processing issue for cases in England which means some are missing from todays dashboard update. So I will wait till later in this coming week before I share some charts which give examples of what I am on about in terms of explosive growth.

For anyone that is still looking to avoid catching this virus, who doesnt want to rely on vaccines alone, and who are looking to update their sense of risk, its probably a good idea to read the following sort of articles. Including paying attention to how a country like Australia, with a very different approach (and very different level of vaccinated population) is handling public communication about the Delta variant.

Covid Delta variant is ‘in the air you breathe’: what you need to know about Sydney outbreak strain

Delta strain is significantly more infectious but it spreads the same way as the original virus – including by ‘fleeting’ encounters and respiratory aerosols

www.theguardian.com

Delta Covid variant may be edging race against vaccines

Analysis: research suggests ‘scarily fleeting’ contact could infect, and that places with high jab rates are susceptible

www.theguardian.com

On the subject of scarily fleeting contact someone in china told me there was a case where they didnt appear to have any contact with someone then found out they'd been in the same public bathroom for 14 seconds.

 

[LDC]

I agree. He actually said he was going to 'end the pandemic' but I think we all know what he meant.

Yeah, 'end the pandemic', shit of course, that's the problem, nobody's realized that's what we need to do. FFS.

Brilliant he's health secretary now, once he's ended the pandemic, he can work on ending cancer, ending heart disease, etc.

 

[Cat Fan]

Surgeries have been cancelled because NHS resources have been concentrated on covid, and because of the amount of covid in hospitals, not because they've been locked down. And why would people not fear being infected without lockdowns? Lockdowns kept the infection rate down at the peaks. Or do you think it's all been overhyped?

GP services seem to have ended up being biased towards their elderly regulars but again they would either have had to implement infection control or the death figures would have been twice as high as they were.

NHS fear cancer 'avalanche' as record 230k patients sent for checks

CANCER services are struggling to cope with an "avalanche of referrals" as a record 230,000 patients are sent for checks.

www.express.co.uk

"Experts have blamed the backlog on fearful patients staying at home, difficulties in accessing services in lockdowns and disruption as the staff were redeployed to tackle the pandemic."

Hindsight is 20/20, but I do think we shouldn't be blind to where NHS/government over-caution may have cost lives as well as the important positive benefits of lockdown in reducing Covid cases.

 

[Cat Fan]

Is anyone bothered by Hancock's flouting of the social distancing rule? There were lots of good reasons for him to go, but it needs to be legal to transition to a new partner outside your household. That's just life. If Hancock and his new squeeze stick to the rules in other respects, the risk of them causing more transmissions is negligible.

I think it's reasonable for us to hold the Health secretary to an extremely high standard, when it comes to Covid laws that everyone is supposed to follow.

 

[David Clapson]

But shouldn't the law permit people to start a new relationship? I don't think the rules are supposed to stop us doing that.

 

[cupid_stunt]

NHS fear cancer 'avalanche' as record 230k patients sent for checks

CANCER services are struggling to cope with an "avalanche of referrals" as a record 230,000 patients are sent for checks.

www.express.co.uk

"Experts have blamed the backlog on fearful patients staying at home, difficulties in accessing services in lockdowns and disruption as the staff were redeployed to tackle the pandemic."

Hindsight is 20/20, but I do think we shouldn't be blind to where NHS/government over-caution may have cost lives as well as the important positive benefits of lockdown in reducing Covid cases.

But, without lockdowns, cases & deaths would have skyrocketed, resulting in even more fear for non-covid patients seeking treatment, and even more staff redeployed to tackle the pandemic.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I'd say breaking the distancing rules is probably somewhere in the middle of the 'list of reasons why Hancock should have been sacked' tbh.

 

[maomao]

"Experts have blamed the backlog on fearful patients staying at home, difficulties in accessing services in lockdowns and disruption as the staff were redeployed to tackle the pandemic.

GP services would have had to put the same or similar infection control measures in place (or kill twice as many) with or without a lockdown and no lockdown would have meant people were even more at risk and therefore more afraid. More staff would have had to be redeployed. It's like you've zoomed in on the word lockdown without reading the whole article.

 

[maomao]

But shouldn't the law permit people to start a new relationship? I don't think the rules are supposed to stop us doing that.

They specifically stop that.