Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Cat Fan]

Sounds great, but presumably you're taking into account the length if time between a rise in cases and hospitalisations and finally deaths?

Yes that's taking into account the lag. There was a good analysis on Radio 4's More or Less and they said something like 40,000 hospitalisations prevented because of the vaccine so far.

 

[Cat Fan]

I'm not worried about covid. My son has leukaemia and was repeatedly turned away from hospitals and doctors in November and December last year because his fevers were misdiagnosed as 'mild colds'. Parents should be believed when they say their kids are ill and shouldn't be made to feel that they are wasting doctors' time or have to wait two months before someone considers a blood test. I have met the mother of a child with neuroblastoma who literally had to sit down in the middle of A&E and refuse to go to get her son looked at properly. The same goes for adults quite frankly it's just the framing of that particular article that sent shivers down my spine.

Sorry about that, didn't get the context. It's not been my experience when I took my son to A&E at King's last year. He was fully examined and a follow up appointment arranged with a specialist at a leading hospital. I hope your son is getting the best possible care now. Best wishes.

 

[elbows]

Yes that's taking into account the lag. There was a good analysis on Radio 4's More or Less and they said something like 40,000 hospitalisations prevented because of the vaccine so far.

The latest estimates for England are that 44.500 hospitalisations of people 65 and over have been prevented, along with 14.000 deaths of people aged 60 and above. They think these are underestimates because the indirect effects of vaccination havent been included.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/996565/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_25.pdf

I note that in another post you mention media hype, but the media arent hyping stuff at the moment, they are underplaying the implications of the current wave.

 

[elbows]

The Guardian somewhat put the timing of the stuff reffered to by Cummings latest revelations into context:

Publishing what he said were Johnson’s words, Cummings said the prime minister confided that he feared the proposed system to track down Covid cases and stop transmission was like “legions of imaginary Clouseaus [fictional French detectives] and no plan to hire them”.

Johnson reportedly complained of “apps that don’t yet work” and “above all no idea how to get new cases down to a manageable level or how long it will take … by which time [the] UK may have [the] secured double distinction of being the European country with the most fatalities and the biggest economic hit”. He concluded: “We GOTTA turn it round.”

His gloomy assessment contrasted strongly with the prime minister’s public statement the next day that “if this virus were a physical assailant, an unexpected and invisible mugger … then this is the moment when we have begun together to wrestle it to the floor”.

Cummings told the prime minister on 3 May 2020 by WhatsApp: “these goddam plans should already exists … but I don’t think they do” and that “at the moment I think we are negligently killing the most vulnerable who we’re supposed to be shielding and I am extremely worried about it”.

At the time of the warning there was desperation in care homes where more than 2,000 residents in England and Wales were still dying from Covid each week. Care operators warned on 5 May that more than three-quarters of care staff were not being tested despite a promise by Hancock three weeks earlier that there was capacity for all of them.

A few days after Cummings’ warning about care home deaths, the Guardian reported care operators’ anger that testing was “a complete system failure” even though Hancock had promised tests for all care residents from 28 April. With care staff unable to detect who had the virus, deaths of care home residents from the virus didn’t drop below 1,000 until the end of the month.

Care operators responded to the revelations by noting that weeks later Johnson publicly blamed care operators for deaths, saying “too many care homes didn’t really follow the procedures in the way that they could have”.

“If these messages are accurate, it’s clear that the PM was aware of the risk to vulnerable people due to a lack of testing capacity,” said Nadra Ahmed, the executive chairman of the National Care Association, who recalled that it had been impossible to know who had the virus as testing was taking more than 10 days in some cases. “The tragedy of this is the potential that lives were lost unnecessarily because these problems weren’t recognised or rectified.”

PM said test and trace would be ‘like whistling in the dark’, says Cummings

Former adviser publishes contents of April 2020 email from Boris Johnson expressing concern over Matt Hancock’s plans for testing

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Doctors and nurses working at Manchester’s Royal Infirmary say they were told the hospital had declared a major incident on Thursday amid mounting pressures in its emergency department, long waits for patients and fears of a shortage of staff and beds.

Multiple sources at the Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, from different departments, said staff were told the declaration was made, but then rapidly reduced to an internal incident to “avoid bad press”.

The trust denied declaring any incident but has taken what is known as ‘business continuity measures” which is part of NHS England’s incident response and is designed to ensure hospitals can maintain patient services in the face of increased demand.

NHS staff in Manchester reveal ‘major incident’ over hospital pressures

Exclusive: Hospital denies declaring incident but has put in place measures to maintain services as patients face long waits

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Artaxerxes]

Where is this 'double jabbed so I can do what the fuck I like now' attitude coming from? AFAIK there's no evidence that you can't transmit the virus after you've been vaccinated.

It was inevitable because some people are ignorant cunts

It’s exactly what I expected to happen

 

[elbows]

From the 'Tim Spector is a twat' department comes this. This sort of sentiment is bound to be part of 'learning to live with covid' but these shitheads are pushing for it too soon.

 

[David Clapson]

Anyone know the latest numbers for the efficacy of two doses of the AZ/Oxford?

 

[elbows]

Anyone know the latest numbers for the efficacy of two doses of the AZ/Oxford?

Public library - UKHSA national - Knowledge Hub

khub.net

 

[Steel Icarus]

From the 'Tim Spector is a twat' department comes this. This sort of sentiment is bound to be part of 'learning to live with covid' but these shitheads are pushing for it too soon.

Says man whose son is not a school kid

 

[andysays]

It was inevitable because some people are ignorant cunts

It’s exactly what I expected to happen

It's not just (or even mostly) because some people are ignorant cunts.

It's been quite frequently suggested by government etc that individuals who have had two jabs should be allowed to behave in ways which are still extremely risky.

Unless I've misunderstood your post and it's specifically the government you're calling ignorant cunts.

 

[Boudicca]

Are there any demographics on more recent deaths? I've been trying to tell my (black British) friend that it is too soon to look at how many BME people are dying because they haven't been vaccinated, because there isn't be enough data yet for the figures to be reliable.

 

[David Clapson]

Just had a PCR test for the Lambeth surge. There's a testing facility in the middle of Brixton but hardly any takers, even though it's very busy with shoppers and people ambling around enjoying themselves.

 

[elbows]

Are there any demographics on more recent deaths? I've been trying to tell my (black British) friend that it is too soon to look at how many BME people are dying because they haven't been vaccinated, because there isn't be enough data yet for the figures to be reliable.

I would certainly agree that the overall number of deaths at the moment mean the data will suffer, the level of usual random 'noise' in the data will be quite high compared to the total numbers of deaths.

I have started to pay attention to the following sort of data in regards intensive care. Its still early days for this wave on that front too.



From https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W25.pdf

 

[cupid_stunt]

Another new record for this wave - 18,270 new cases reported today, 7-day average up +54.4%.

Patients admitted to hospital, 7-day average are 'only' up +10.3%, which is sort of good news.

However, new deaths reported 23, 7-day average up +60.8%.

 

[Sasaferrato]

WYF is the Scottish government playing at?

Look at the rates and the 'levels'.

Anything over 150 should be in level 3, East Lothian is in level 1.

 

[StoneRoad]

And about a week ago, my little/local patch got a +ve case ...

great, that's really gonna help my bezza's mental state.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Those figures are fucking grim, Sasaferrato.

And, there's me pissed off that we've gone from 1 to almost 80 cases/100k over the last few weeks.

 

[elbows]

WYF is the Scottish government playing at?

Broadly speaking they are following the same approach as the UK government - let it rip.

They are relying on the age of many cases being low, and the hospitalisation figures, to justify not imposing new restrictions.

As case numbers increase to record levels, we also need to consider other forms of brake that exist within the current system, beyond the handbrake that is lockdown.

For example, assuming plenty of people still get tested and still follow self-isolation rules, as the number of cases in communities increase, we end with a sort of 'partial lockdown by stealth' as various businesses and services including schools and hospitals lose many staff members to self-isolation, and are no longer able to provide a normal service. In future the authorities will look to remove much of this stuff from the picture too, by changing the rules, but those rules havent been removed in time to avoid large disruption in this particular wave.

I am not happy about this approach so I am just attempting to explain certain parts of it, not justify it.

 

[elbows]

Plus some of Scotlands recent numbers are probably even worse than the data currently shows, since they've had some sort processing backlog at the Glasgow lighthouse lab.

This wave is likely a lesson in how high numbers can go in some settings and sections of the population when faced with a nasty variant, and thus how high the numbers can still go overall. Combined with lessons about how little of a shit authorities give as long as hospitals remain within capacity, combined with the huge gains that the vaccines have offered. The extent to which there will be an ugly lesson about the limits of how much we can reasonably ask of vaccinations at this stage remains to be seen.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Those figures are fucking grim, Sasaferrato.

And, there's me pissed off that we've gone from 1 to almost 80 cases/100k over the last few weeks.

Cases in our area, West Lothian, have quadrupled in two weeks.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Plus some of Scotlands recent numbers are probably even worse than the data currently shows, since they've had some sort processing backlog at the Glasgow lighthouse lab.

This wave is likely a lesson in how high numbers can go in some settings and sections of the population when faced with a nasty variant, and thus how high the numbers can still go overall. Combined with lessons about how little of a shit authorities give as long as hospitals remain within capacity, combined with the huge gains that the vaccines have offered. The extent to which there will be an ugly lesson about the limits of how much we can reasonably ask of vaccinations at this stage remains to be seen.

We have TV adverts advising us to be tested twice a week. That would be 8 million tests a week, we simply do not have the capacity to turn those tests round in a meaningful time.

 

[Boudicca]

I would certainly agree that the overall number of deaths at the moment mean the data will suffer, the level of usual random 'noise' in the data will be quite high compared to the total numbers of deaths.

I have started to pay attention to the following sort of data in regards intensive care. Its still early days for this wave on that front too.

View attachment 275407

From https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W25.pdf

Thanks for that. Not great news. My friend has had his vaccine but most of his family have decided not to.

 

[weepiper]

We have TV adverts advising us to be tested twice a week. That would be 8 million tests a week, we simply do not have the capacity to turn those tests round in a meaningful time.

It means lateral flow tests Sas, you do them at home yourself so they don't need to be turned around as such. PCR tests are for people who have symptoms. Lateral flow tests are to keep an eye on the virus in asymptomatic people. If you do a positive lateral flow test you're supposed to then isolate and get a PCR test to confirm.

 

[glitch hiker]

We have TV adverts advising us to be tested twice a week. That would be 8 million tests a week, we simply do not have the capacity to turn those tests round in a meaningful time.

There is no way we can get enough people fullly vaccinated by the 19th of July, which means Hancock is going to have to find the credibility to call for lockdown (as people see it) being extended again.

 

[Sasaferrato]

It means lateral flow tests Sas, you do them at home yourself so they don't need to be turned around as such. PCR tests are for people who have symptoms. Lateral flow tests are to keep an eye on the virus in asymptomatic people. If you do a positive lateral flow test you're supposed to then isolate and get a PCR test to confirm.

Thanks for the clarification, I don't think the adverts make that clear.

 

[elbows]

Scotlands overall case numbers are breaking their previous records, and this is especially notable on the dashboard graph of cases by specimen date for Edinburgh.

 

[Cloo]

Aside from resultant deaths and hospitalisations, even if lower, surely with this level of infection there will just be impractically high levels of people being isolated in the next few months? Businesses having to open and close, etc etc.

We, thankfully, held my daughter's bat mitzvah today, postponed from last year - socially distanced in the synagogue, small garden party afterwards. Very, very luckily neither of our kids got a contact in the period running up to it (one scare with son suddenly having fatigue and high temp, but PCR negative, just under a fortnight ago) and also luckily we only 'lost' a few people to isolation but I would not want to be having a big event in the next month

 

[flypanam]

About 125 students in my work got pinged by Track and Trace on Thursday. 20 staff mainly in admin and reception are isolating for ten days too, looks like our 4 week term extension will end 3 weeks early on Wednesday.

 

[StoneRoad]

More than one of the schools where OH has done loads of supply after taking "early retirement" are currently suffering multiple cases or isolations among the teaching / ancillary staff and students.
So glad to be a) retired b) double jabbed ...

However, still taking precautions when outside our house and garden or when stuff is delivered.
Chatted to postperson a couple of days ago - one of his anti-vaxx co-workers is, yet again, having to isolate as one of their several bratts is (again) a contact to a +ve case. This "worker" should be on the P/Time list, they done so few hours in the past 18 months.