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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

In this summary of a main theme or two from todays caution press conference, analysis by the BBCs Nick Triggle provides me with a quote with which I can probably close the Nick Triggle file for now.


The lower estimates of modelling done for the government suggests there could be 30,000 deaths by summer 2022.

That would be in line with a bad flu winter. But it could also be much, much worse.

If there is one thing we have learnt, nothing can be taken for granted with Covid.

Actually there were a bunch of things that could be taken for granted with Covid, the problem was you have to pick the right things, and those things were not aligned with things Triggle seemed to believe until his beliefs evolved and he got a clue some time after September 2020. It appears he got there in the end. I wont go on about him again unless he regresses.
 
If and when we escape this fully (June?) and the papers go nuts they should lead with "we done it!" as per the usual shit and then on page two "despite You" and list all the fucking covid denier organisers and grifters. I'm not into public shaming but these cunts (as well as the government) have shown disregard to the safety of others largely from the start.
 
So pleased with themselves.
Reading through the a Twitter feed, a protest group organised the maskless shopping event on Saturday at Tesco, Chelmsford. The maskless shoppers that were spoken to by store managers and police apparently claimed to be exempt.

The video is awful, the poor employee replenishing stock on the shelves is masked and the crowd would certainly be intimidating. The store where I work (not Tesco!) employs external uniformed security and fortunately we have pretty much 100% compliance with masks. And we have restricted the numbers in store for the whole of the past year.
 
We're almost certainly closer to 200k than 150 based on just missing so many at the start and excess deaths.

I cannot make that claim. When I experimented with different sorts of data a week ago it was not hard to get over 160,000, but not by much. The actual number could be higher still, but I cannot say it is closer to 200,000 than 150,000. It might be, but I lack evidence. Partly because excess deaths cannot capture the full picture either, because there were long periods where less people than normal were dying from other causes.
 
We're almost certainly closer to 200k than 150 based on just missing so many at the start and excess deaths.

No we are not.

The 150k figure is for deaths with covid listed on the death certificate, around 125k are deaths with positive tests, excess deaths are around that figure.

When you add up those excess deaths from both the first and second wave and subtract the below-average deaths numbers inbetween, you get a grand total of just over 123,000 across the UK as a whole.

It is a depressing number, and by some yardsticks it underplays the impact of COVID-19, since there are other statistics, based on the number of deaths where the virus was mentioned on the certificate, which now put the total just short of 150,000.

Why the difference? Primarily because deaths from other causes, notably flu and non-COVID, were lower during this period than in previous years.

One interpretation is that some of those who have died from the coronavirus might otherwise have died in the same period from something else. But this is scant consolation.

 
Just because, as per my previous post, I dont have evidence to make a fairly safe claim that there have been more than 175,000 covid-related UK deaths so far, does not mean that I think it really unlikely we've had that many. If someone asked me how confident I was that we've had less than 175,000 Covid-19 related deaths in the UK, my answer would have to be 'not confident at all'. I am reasonably confident there have been more than 160,000. I just cannot be at all sure quite how many more than that there have been.
 
The last time I mentioned daily hospital admissions/diagnoses on this thread it was to point out that the figures for England had been around the same level for quite a number of days. I am pleased to say that this stopped being the case and they have dropped again since, so I thought I better mention it.

Screenshot 2021-03-30 at 17.52.07.png
 
The fucking state of this:

FFS.jpeg

Media willingly misunderstanding how viruses work a year into a fucking pandemic. No, Boris Johnson should not 'heed calls' to reopen earlier, because 7 weeks is plenty of time to lose everything we've gained. The point of fucking viruses is that until they're completely gone or everyone's immune they are not under control and can surge again. Grrrr. :mad:
 
The fucking state of this:

Media willingly misunderstanding how viruses work a year into a fucking pandemic. No, Boris Johnson should not 'heed calls' to reopen earlier, because 7 weeks is plenty of time to lose everything we've gained. The point of fucking viruses is that until they're completely gone or everyone's immune they are not under control and can surge again. Grrrr. :mad:

They arent even capable of being original, they used the exact same headline one day in February, which I had a go at back then. The difference is that on that occasion they underlined the word are:

#34,603
 
The fucking state of this:

View attachment 260978

Media willingly misunderstanding how viruses work a year into a fucking pandemic. No, Boris Johnson should not 'heed calls' to reopen earlier, because 7 weeks is plenty of time to lose everything we've gained. The point of fucking viruses is that until they're completely gone or everyone's immune they are not under control and can surge again. Grrrr. :mad:

Grrr. They should be forced to print this on the front page instead, along with an explanation:

 
Likely we will see a lot of alarmist headlines over the next few weeks but it is a bit disappointing to see that. Not surprising given the weather and lockdown fatigue but still not a great sign.

 
Likely we will see a lot of alarmist headlines over the next few weeks but it is a bit disappointing to see that. Not surprising given the weather and lockdown fatigue but still not a great sign.


I think it's inevitable.

I've been pretty cautious with this whole thing throughout, and have taken a pretty science-led (well, @elbowsl led :D) approach to it all...but I am going quietly spare, and as the weather improves, the pull to get out and meet people is becoming irresistible. Not that I'm likely to go full denier or anything, but I think we've done well to ensure the level of compliance we've managed for so long.

I can't see that compliance, generally, continuing for all that much longer.

If you leave a bowl of sweets on the sideboard, and tell everyone not to eat them, you can't exactly be surprised if they start to disappear...
 
Like I said it is not surprising.

When I saw the sunshine yesterday was grabbing the camping chairs and shorts out the wardrobe. Personally I am not 'desperate' for large gatherings but fully understand people do. Few beers in the sun and most of us let our guards down.
 
The age demographics say it all really with that shit in the park. The teens and young adults are pissed off. They want to see their friends, they want to party and have fun. Its must be really shit for them having all these life limiting restrictions in place for something that is little to no risk to you. I can see why this sort of thing happens and will continue to happen this summer.

I get that it must be really crap for them but yeah its not a great spectacle and combine that with leaving the parks looking like landfill (which happened a lot last Summer as well) there probably are going to have to be some local restrictions around drinking in public places etc.
 
Reading through the a Twitter feed, a protest group organised the maskless shopping event on Saturday at Tesco, Chelmsford. The maskless shoppers that were spoken to by store managers and police apparently claimed to be exempt.

The video is awful, the poor employee replenishing stock on the shelves is masked and the crowd would certainly be intimidating. The store where I work (not Tesco!) employs external uniformed security and fortunately we have pretty much 100% compliance with masks. And we have restricted the numbers in store for the whole of the past year.
Be a different story if it was my shop. Fucking selfish, stupid idiots. How much effort is it to stick on a fucking mask for 10 mins when you shop?


ah, we're back in the 'gaze in horror at this photo of a crowded park/beach' phase again. things are looking up!
I think we've moved on a bit as science has progressed. Outdoors has been seen to be pretty safe unless you're all packed in together, whereas packing into a supermarket without masks is clearly stupid.
 
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