I think we undersell vaccines. I know they aren't perfect. But they have removed smallpox and polio from the world. It has been estimated Smallpox killed 25% of the Roman empire in 4 months. We have been confined to our houses for less than 1%. Imagine a 25% death rate. (It's actually more like 30%
Smallpox) Smallpox is scary
Why Romans Grew Nostalgic for the Deadly Plague of 165 A.D.
50% of the UK population is estimated to have antibodies to Covid-19 through a vaccine or catching it. I think behaviour will naturally change.
I'm hopeful for a nice warm summer, if we all hang out outdoors it will really help drive the infection rate down.
I dont think we undersell vaccines, I think the authorities are somewhat careful not to make claims until they have the data to back those claims up. This has been especially notable when it comes to them not wanting to make claims about reductions in transmission until they started to get more data on that side of things. And we are now into the stage where good data news on the transmission front starts to emerge, improving expectations.
I've seen several modelling exercises looking at lockdown relaxation over time in combination with the UK vaccination programme, and under plenty of the scenarios the picture later this year still wasnt pretty, still involved further deaths in the tens of thousands over time via another wave. These exercises had limitations and were based on various assumptions about vaccine effectiveness which are now a bit out of date. So I dont have a narrow range of expectations for the future, I have a wide range all the way from 'next wave will barely resemble a sizeable wave at all' to another considerable peak of deaths and hospitalisations. It will take time before I can narrow my expectations in a particular direction on that. Government seems to have a simialr attitude, hence the relatively cautious approach to unlocking in phases.
I do have an additional reason to consider relatively pleasant pandemic future possibilities as a result of vaccination, because of the substantial role I think hospital-acquired infections have in amplifying a wave, and if vaccines radically change the hospital infection potential then things that were terrible tipping points in previous waves may not kick off in the same way in future, even under conditions where community infection levels are not well under control.
In terms of public attitudes towards vaccines, the binary nature of a lot of the thinking bothers me. This wont matter quite so much if the data keeps on yielding better and better figures, because faulty ideas about being totally protected will not be as far away from the truth as they might be if the original, lower percentages for these sorts of things had been closer to the reality.
If last summer was any guide then I dont think people are that well equipped to judge how quickly a subsequent wave can take to emerge and reach very problematic levels either. Which is not surprising, the government often dont speak much about this and there are a lot of variables that can affect things. A simple starting point that I use to get some sense of this sort of thing is how low the level of infections has gotten by the time measures are relaxed. Things have fallen a lot since the January peak so if things start to climb again they are doing so from a lower starting point than was the case, for example, when things went wrong at the end of November/start of December after a period of restrictions was eased, but then of course that situation was also affected by the Kent variant, schools not having been shut in November etc.