Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

Schools went back about 8th March. Some schools were testing in the week before that. So are we going back to open the schools and watch the rates rise?

We would expect positive tests for kids to have gone up just because they're testing kids a lot more now. I also don't know if those figures factor in false positives, of which there will have been a significant number as they've doubled the number of rapid tests being done and these do return some false positives. So at least some of that rise among kids is an artefact of the testing regime.

I'm intrigued by the diagonal green area to the right of that table. How well does that correlate with first dose of vaccine take up? At first glance it looks like it might correlate quite closely, which would be rather brilliant news.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Apparently, someone, who was supposed to be self-isolating on the Isle of Man, went out to "top-up" their mobile and do some shopping, is now spending 4 weeks in Jurby nick.

Covid Isle of Man: Four weeks in jail for man who ignored Covid rules - BBC News

He's very lucky, some on the IoM have been jailed for 2 to 3 months for the same offence.

 

[Sunray]

Penlon, a UK manufacturer of ventilators did get the order from the UK Ventilator Challenge group.
Emergency Ventilators - Penlon
They had to increase weekly production something like 10 times to meet the demand.

That's good, I read at least twice that they were ignored, one of those quite recently.

I can imagine they didn't scrap their existing designs in favour of one they knocked up with lego and a balloon on their kitchen table.

 

[weltweit]

That's good, I read at least twice that they were ignored, one of those quite recently.

I think initially the individuals involved in the Ventilator challenge were perhaps seduced by the more glamorous names of UK manufacturing but they came to realise that ventilators are quite carefully approved medical kit which meant an existing design had big advantages.

That said, my understanding is that Penlon needed assistance to get throughput up to the required levels.

I can imagine they didn't scrap their existing designs in favour of one they knocked up with lego and a balloon on their kitchen table.

There were quite a few consortia trying to establish and pushing new designs, I think the approvals process proved to be too high a bar for these newly designed ventilators. That and the actual UK demand proved less great than had been anticipated.

 

[elbows]

We would expect positive tests for kids to have gone up just because they're testing kids a lot more now. I also don't know if those figures factor in false positives, of which there will have been a significant number as they've doubled the number of rapid tests being done and these do return some false positives. So at least some of that rise among kids is an artefact of the testing regime.

When drilling down to England in the UK dashboard it is possible to see how many lateral flow tests were conducted. Its been at a high rate for some time so I dont expect a sudden difference in results to only show up right now as a consequence of this.



I usually have more to say about age-based data when the weekly surveillance report omes out, which is on Thursdays (and covers England rather than whole of UK). Unfortunately it does tend to lag behind the daily data, but it does include all manner of charts relating to education age groups, and tends to stick to lab-based tests rather than lateral flow ones. Most of these charts are in the supplimentary document, eg here is the one from last week. https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W11.pdf

I believe I already posted this graph from it the other day:

 

[ddraig]

0 deaths two days in a row in Wales and cases decreasing!

 

[elbows]

SInce I reflect most days on the pandemic, I dont have anything special to say on this anniversary.

Except to say that by date of death, there have been 149,114 UK deaths where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate from the start up till 12th March 2021. And 91,294 of those were from the 1st September 2020 onwards.

 

[elbows]

And if someone asked me what the largest possible number I could come up with based on data is, so that some sense of possible range could be considered, in the context of how much undercounting there may have been, it would be something like this:

Use excess deaths for the first wave, something like 65,365.

Use positive test deaths for the 2nd wave, but with Englands 28-day limit replaced by a 60 day limit instead. Something like 96,576.

Total 161,941.

 

[Supine]

0 deaths two days in a row in Wales and cases decreasing!

Time to let the economy rip!!! Get spending people.

 

[StoneRoad]

Nicked off the BeeB

Covid lockdown: Seven enduring claims fact-checked - BBC News

I find it surprising that some of these still have currency ...

 

[brogdale]

Fucking hell...

 

[Brainaddict]

Fucking hell...

Would look better as a defendant line-up.

 

[brogdale]

Would look better as a defendant line-up.

Leading to the Milanese trapeze

Spoiler: graphic image

 

[maomao]

Fucking hell...

Not even a minute's silence but a minute one.

 

[editor]

Leading to the Milanese trapeze

Spoiler: graphic image

View attachment 259970

Please don't post up graphic images, but if you absolutely must, use spoiler code please.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Your PM seems to think it is all over now judging by his comments on yeh telly. It’s being sold as a victory already

 

[Teaboy]

Your PM seems to think it is all over now judging by his comments on yeh telly. It’s being sold as a victory already

It was only yesterday he was telling us the third wave is already on its way from Europe. Its almost like he's not worth listening to.

 

[smmudge]

See the government are really pushing the "we didn't think people could spread it asymptomatically" story as an excuse for fucking things up this time last year. Bojo just said it now, and Handcock this morning on ITV. Er really, the idea that people can carry and transmit a virus without showing symptoms was only discovered in the past year was it?

 

[not-bono-ever]

Talking about memorials and a year if struggles. Ffs, how out of line us this shit whilst it’s still ongoing. They are moving to close the discussion down and sell it as a new dawn

 

[elbows]

See the government are really pushing the "we didn't think people could spread it asymptomatically" story as an excuse for fucking things up this time last year. Bojo just said it now, and Handcock this morning on ITV. Er really, the idea that people can carry and transmit a virus without showing symptoms was only discovered in the past year was it?

Yeah there has always been a lot of bullshit claims about what we only came to understand with the benefit of hindsight, and the extent and role of asymptomatic cases are way, way up there on that list.

Here are some carefully selected quotes from people on this very forum which were all said in January 2020!

What we seem to have here is a long incubation period, many asymptomatic or mild cases, and relatively easy transmission. That's a triple whammy of bad news for any containment efforts.

I've just read that an asymptomatic child has been found carrying the virus. If it's possible for someone to carry the disease and transmit it, without knowing, it's much harder to contain the virus.

For example, some MERS studies gave ranges of 12.5%-25% for asymptomatic cases.

It'll probably come to you before you get to it; it seems that there are increasing numbers of asymptomatic cases and quite possibly will just end up circulating in the general population like flu, the common cold, etc

I'm glad we at least reached the point some years ago of understanding the probably(sic) scale of asymptomatic flu infections. I dont know as much has been done about the implications of this yet, partly because a bunch of the implications make certain pro-active containment measures seem a good deal less purposeful. So I wont be surprised if that rabbit hole is under-explored in general, it can be demoralising. Some would rather fight the tip of the iceberg that is actually visible, and let that bit form the overwhelming majority of their perceptions of disease.

And here is some of my commentary from March 11th 2020 which demonstrates government bullshit and grotesque failure was still present on the asymptomatic front back then:

Hancock sticking to the idea that asymptomatic transmission isnt a big thing, so no problem with MPs cramming into the voting lobbies, as long as they dont come into parliament if they have symptoms.

They were right to mention lack of data (lack of testing etc) in todays press conference, but thats also used as a crap excuse since things said on this forum also provide evidence that it was actually possible to get some sense of where the UKs wave was at compared to Italy etc a number of crucial weeks before the authorities and experts in the UK actually managed to. It was not just a lack of data, it was also a terrible failure to interpret the data we did have properly for quite some time.

 

[elbows]

Oh and when it comes to pre-Covid-19-pandemic understanding of asymptomatic cases of flu, in September 2019 on a flu jab thread I drew attention to the following:

A 2014 story about a Flu Watch study which led to the statistic that 77% of people infected were either symptom-free of their symptoms were too mild to have been identified in the weekly questioning:

Three-quarters of people with flu have no symptoms

Evidence of that study may well still exist elsewhere on the internet, I havent looked, but when attempting to visit the story I linked to at the time, these days we are presented with this instead:

 

[elbows]

The subject of a permanent pandemic memorial came up in todays press conference but sadly Johnson did not suggest that his own head on a stick could form the centerpiece of it.

 

[Pickman's model]

The subject of a permanent pandemic memorial came up in todays press conference but sadly Johnson did not suggest that his own head on a stick could form the centerpiece of it.

No indeed, the penguins are particularly looking forward to eating his eyes

 

[Pickman's model]

Your PM seems to think it is all over now judging by his comments on yeh telly. It’s being sold as a victory already

Sadly he hasn't had his ceaucescu moment

 

[two sheds]

The subject of a permanent pandemic memorial came up in todays press conference but sadly Johnson did not suggest that his own head on a stick could form the centerpiece of it.

If we all club together he'll get ten years in pokey if he pulls it down

 

[Pickman's model]

Is anyone going out to be a Boris beacon at 8?

 

[Pickman's model]

If we all club together he'll get ten years in pokey if he pulls it down

Just take a few of us with clubs to achieve a more satisfying result

 

[maomao]

Is anyone else going out to be a Boris beacon at 8?

A what? What are they fucking clapping now?

 

[Pickman's model]

A what? What are they fucking clapping now?

Johnson was on about people go out at eight with candles or torches or whatnot to do on a smaller scale what Speer did at Nuremberg

 

[cupid_stunt]

Johnson was on about people go out at eight with candles or torches or whatnot to do on a smaller scale what Speer did at Nuremberg

Thanks for reminding me, now where's my bloody candles?