A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
It's not any kind of plan, let alone a great one.
British IS schoolgirl 'wants to return home'
- Thread starter hipipol
- Start date
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I don't think anyone thinks that doing nothing is a great plan - and as you point out, at some stage it will bite us in the arse - it's just any version of 'anything' is also pretty shit, and will also inevitably bite us in the arse.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
This, once here, or in UK custody she will end up staying here. God knows what serious offences you could get home, seeing as its quite hard to take statements in war zones. I'd guess you might get some lower end offences to stick, three years (two of which she'd have done on remand). Then she is never going back, so how much will it cost to keep people safe.
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LDC
On est tous des pangolins
And I think what people are worried about is less her picking up a kitchen knife and chopping a head off (which I would say is probably unlikely, and also would solve the problem of what happens to her very quickly), and more her acting as some speaker or figurehead and a catalyst for others to do similar.
It doesn't take a massive stretch of the imagination to see her once back here and having served some short sentence (if any at all tbh) doing the rounds of events and speaking tours giving her version of the Caliphate and drumming up some support for it in some form. They'd be a few lefties and organisations that would fall over themselves to host her I think.
The argument that while she's there she's at least contained in some way is one I can see some people being very happy with when the alternatives of having her back here are considered.
It doesn't take a massive stretch of the imagination to see her once back here and having served some short sentence (if any at all tbh) doing the rounds of events and speaking tours giving her version of the Caliphate and drumming up some support for it in some form. They'd be a few lefties and organisations that would fall over themselves to host her I think.
The argument that while she's there she's at least contained in some way is one I can see some people being very happy with when the alternatives of having her back here are considered.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Paying Iraq to off them is a bit, well, French...the traditional British way would be to redraw the map so that she is currently inside Iraq and therefore in sight of the rope...
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yeh right. And how contained will she be when the camps empty? I'm surprised how many people think this - daesh - is all over when it clearly isn't. IS Winning Battle in Syria’s Displaced-Persons Camps
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
People aren't genuinely worried about her, they just like the idea of turning a young woman into a scapegoat for the wars and the crimes of men.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think the problem is that because no one - outside of the DGSE - can find a good long term solution, what is being grasped are good short term solutions.
Right now, this week, her being in this camp is a good solution, and one of the better ones available. When the situation changes and this version of a good short term solution is no longer available, they will look for a different good, or at least not-as-bad-as-it-could-be short term solution.
No one, I promise you, thinks this is over - RAF Typhoons from Cyprus dropped several hundred grand in reconstruction projects onto some of our beared friends in Syria this week - it's just that it's simply being ignored by the media, and therefore politicians.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
You really think that is all it's about?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I know it's something you're well aware of, I had in mind some of our less well informed colleagues here
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
No. There's also racism involved.
Treacle Toes
Time
Err...it does take a streeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeetch of the imagination actually. I simply can't see this happening. '....drumming up support in some form'? Seriously?
Yes, in time people would for whatever reason be interested in her story, want to write about it, hear it, dramatise it even but that's because us humans are fucking nosey and there is a massive market for unpalatable tragic biographies, even when the main characters are dislikable. But you've made it sound like she'd be paraded around and would be actively promoting ISIS which is making all kinds of weird assumptions.
She'd have all kinds of restrictions imposed on her for a start I can imagine.
There will be loads of stories from people caught up in ISIS over the coming years. I just can't see how you've managed to see the shit heap her existence has been and is now and imagine she'd come back anything but broken tbh.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Agree. It's quite mad that 'lefties' would be falling over themselves to host her. Don't get that idea at all. That would only happen, surely, if she were to completely renounce ISIS and everything she formerly stood for.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah, no parts of the left have any form for doing anything like that at all...
Anyway, all the arguments have been thrashed out on here over and over again, I suspect nobody is going to change their minds.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Tbf your idea that she might be feted here by some on the left is a novel contribution.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Would you renounce ISIS if trapped a camp with thousands of them?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I was referring to a suggestion of what might happen when she's back here, which would follow a prison sentence in any case. Iirc 4 or5 years would be likely.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Would you if you remained ideologically committed to them?
We just don't know what she believes.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
We don't know for certain what anyone believes, only what they say, or are reported to have said.
what is there to worry about - she is a thick as shit teenager, who if she were to come home will spend her entire life reporting to the police and being watched by the security services.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Then stop endlessly speculating about it
I'm not. I'm saying you can't deny there's a risk. And you've agreed with that.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Quite, we can only judge them by what we know of them. In this case, that she joined a murderous gang of rapists and torturers.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Sigh. This is a long and pointless discussion which you want to have in order to avoid admitting that you don't know whether she poses a risk or not. I'm two drinks in and I bid you all a nice evening.
Athos
Well-Known Member
Sigh. I can't help it if your don't understand logic or uncertainty.
You've already conceded that she might be a risk i.e. that there's a risk she's a risk. Which means there's a risk!
Enjoy your drinks.
Eta: Think of it this way. Condition A might be met; let's say there's a 50% chance it will. And there's a chance that, if condition A is met, outcome X will occur; let's say 80%. That means, as things stand, there's a 40% chance that outcome X will occur.
That's not saying that either condition A will be met, or that, even if it is, outcome X will occur. But as soon as you recognise the chance of condition A being met, you recognise a chance of outcome X.
Ignoring the figures (because we have insufficient data), let condition A be that she might be willing and able to commit a terrorist atrocity (which you've already conceded), and let outcome X be such an evert. It inevitably follows that, if there's a risk she might be willing and able, there's a risk that such an event will happen.
For there to be a risk of X doesn't require a certainty that condition A will be met from the outset. I've not claimed otherwise; me saying there's a danger she might do something isn't me asserting that she definitely would!
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm with Athos on this point. We're basically faced with a probability problem, one in which the chances of bad things happening are evaluated on the basis of incomplete knowledge. So the relevant knowledge we have is that she was at one time a fanatical ISIS supporter. Her particular position now means we shoudn't give weight to anything she says while she's in a camp surrounded by people who would kill her for making anti-ISIS statements, but if she were to return here, the fact that she was undoubtedly at one time a highly dangerous extremist would lead to an assessment that she's a significant risk. Quite rightly.
SpackleFrog
Smash showy bell-bottom pants and sporty haircuts
Are you sure cos this is the original claim:
Begum 'must' have known, therefore Athos knows that she is dangerous now. What Athos has done since has back peddle and argue he just said there was a possibility but his original claim was that it is possible for him to know she is dangerous now. Based on his assumption that she went there with full knowledge of what they were and his insistence that she willingly remained part of it.
Which she might have. It's just no one on this thread knows that, whatever insight they may claim.
Night all.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
I personally couldn't care less really whether she is allowed back here or not, sad maybe but true. Her presence in this country or not is a pretty marginal matter, imho. If she were allowed back in she would be monitored so heavily that she wouldn't be able to do any real damage even if she wanted to. It's all symbolic drama with no great significance. There are far more dangerous individuals living here already, some known to the security services, some not.
What is maybe of greater significance is how citizenship rights may be taken from other people in future for completely different reasons, using this as a precedent. (Apologies if other posters have already made this point)
What is maybe of greater significance is how citizenship rights may be taken from other people in future for completely different reasons, using this as a precedent. (Apologies if other posters have already made this point)
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Athos
Well-Known Member
I know lightening is dangerous, but I don't know whether it will strike at a particular time and place. You seem to confuse the idea that there's a danger that something will happen with an assertion it definitely will. The fact that she might have gone and remained willingly (which you've conceded) means there's a danger she remains radicalised. That doesn't require me to assume those things are definitely true, though. And it's not an assertion that she would definitely do anything.
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NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
So long as you don't swan off to some conflict zone to join an apocalyptic racist cult that murders people for "religious" "reasons", then I reckon you'll be good.
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