Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

[RD2003]

So what's your answer...just leave things as they are? But as you've said, you "couldn't give two tosses" about Lukashenko. Makes sense.

Have you ever considered the possibility that there may not be an answer? Can you deny that the only alternative to Lukashenko is a pro-Western, anti-Russia oligarchy and a new middle class which will instinctively cheer on the West as it lurches into a probable war with China etc etc?

 

[steeplejack]

None of this is good, but it's the way it fucking well is.

It's been so good of you to stop by and put us all right.

 

[Shechemite]

Can you deny that the only alternative to Lukashenko is a pro-Western, anti-Russia oligarchy and a new middle class which will instinctively cheer on the West as it lurches into a probable war with China etc etc?

yes

 

[steeplejack]

Have you ever considereed the possibility that there may not be an answer? Can you deny that the only alternative to Lukashenko is a pro-Western, anti-Russia oligarchy and a new middle class which will instinctively cheer on the West as it lurches into a probable war with China etc etc?

I started the thread to inform people about what is happening in Belarus and I've tried to link to as many sources directly, throughout.

I'm not particularly interested in fielding whatever your world-view is, particularly as it seems to be cheering on Russia just because, well, it isn't the West. It isn;t a football match we're watching here.

Hope you enjoy the rest of your supermarket-lager fuelled evening.

 

[hitmouse]

Have you ever considereed the possibility that there may not be an answer? Can you deny that the only alternative to Lukashenko is a pro-Western, anti-Russia oligarchy and a new middle class which will instinctively cheer on the West as it lurches into a probable war with China etc etc?

TINA. Everything that exists at the moment is the best thing that can ever possibly exist in the best of all possible worlds. Have you considered the possibility of going to bed?

 

[RD2003]

It's been so good of you to stop by and put us all right.

Not putting you right, just offering an opinion which you can take or leave.

 

[RD2003]

TINA. Everything that exists at the moment is the best thing that can ever possibly exist in the best of all possible worlds. Have you considered the possibility of going to bed?

Is that what I said? Please explain how the overthrow of Lukashenko will not follow the pattern of similar experiments of overturning the rule of similar, pro-capitalist ex-Stalinists in other formerly Communist-ruled societies. Because, as things stand, I can't see it.

 

[RD2003]

DP

 

[RD2003]

yes

Oh.

 

[RD2003]

I started the thread to inform people about what is happening in Belarus and I've tried to link to as many sources directly, throughout.

I'm not particularly interested in fielding whatever your world-view is, particularly as it seems to be cheering on Russia just because, well, it isn't the West. It isn;t a football match we're watching here.

Hope you enjoy the rest of your supermarket-lager fuelled evening.

It's ace of you to inform us of what's happening. Thanks. Also for the sources, which are definitely not on the side of the new pro-western oligarchy in the waiting, nor the new pro-western middle class which will leech off it.

 

[Shechemite]

Who’s funding you steeplejack

 

[hitmouse]

I love things that exist right now. Sometimes people try to fool me into thinking that we should improve society somewhat, but I know better.

Is that what I said? Please explain how the overthrow of Lukashenko will not follow the pattern of similar experiments of overturning the rule of similar, pro-capitalist ex-Stalinists in other formerly Communist-ruled societies. Because, as things stand, I can't see it.

TINA. I never said TINA. Anyway, as I was saying, there's no alternative, is there?

 

[RD2003]

I love things that exist right now. Sometimes people try to fool me into thinking that we should improve society somewhat, but I know better.

TINA. I never said TINA. Anyway, as I was saying, there's no alternative, is there?

Didn't I ask you what you imagine the alternative is, in the context we're talking about here?

 

[Flavour]

I think it's more likely that Russia will unilaterally invade and reincorporate Belarus into Russia proper à la Crimea than a pro-Western bloc taking power in Minsk

 

[steeplejack]

What nonsense. Why would Russia bother with a military invasion? They control what they need to already and are in a very strong position to control the post-Lukashenko political landscape.

Belarus is part of the Union State and both militaries & secret services are in an integration process. Russian oligarchs are already eyeing the crown jewels of the Belarusian economy ahead of likely future privitisation.

What purpose would invasion serve?

 

[muscovyduck]

How did Belarus know the man was on the plane?

 

[kebabking]

How did Belarus know the man was on the plane?

He was obviously under surveillance - there were four russian passport holders on board who did not get back on the flight. They were almost certainly Belorussian KGB surveillance officers who set the job up.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

How should the EU respond to one of its aircraft flying between two of its capitals effectively being hijacked to nab a political opponent who possibly faces being executed at worse, most likely a very long prison sentence?

Belarus did this with the approval of Moscow, most likely at Moscow's invitation to test the EU's resolve before they take the rest of Ukraine. The EU of course guided by its biggest member, the one with the cosy pipeline deal with Russia...

 

[Sue]

How did Belarus know the man was on the plane?

I only caught part of it but on R4 this morning someone from the Belarusian opposition (I think) was talking about his papers being photographed in Athens airport. (As I said, didn't hear the whole thing and wasn't fully paying attention.)

 

[Flavour]

How should the EU respond to one of its aircraft flying between two of its capitals effectively being hijacked to nab a political opponent who possibly faces being executed at worse, most likely a very long prison sentence?

Belarus did this with the approval of Moscow, most likely at Moscow's invitation to test the EU's resolve before they take the rest of Ukraine. The EU of course guided by its biggest member, the one with the cosy pipeline deal with Russia...

From the EU's point of view they should have scrambled their own fighter planes to tell the Belarussian ones to fuck off and shoot them down if necessary

 

[steeplejack]

I only caught part of it but on R4 this morning someone from the Belarusian opposition (I think) was talking about his papers being photographed in Athens airport. (As I said, didn't hear the whole thing and wasn't fully paying attention.)

This is true, the detainee complained that Russian speakers were invading personal space / photographing his documents (or attempting to) at check-in.

Many airlines are already avoiding Belarusian airspace ahead of likely restrictions on flying over the country this week.

 

[Nylock]

From the EU's point of view they should have scrambled their own fighter planes to tell the Belarussian ones to fuck off and shoot them down if necessary

<pedant>The EU isn't a military alliance, that's NATO's job...</pedant>

 

[steeplejack]

How did Belarus know the man was on the plane?

Belarus is pushing very hard against independent media. Since last summer it has had an obsession with locking up political bloggers.

The Belarusian KGB have clearly had eyes on this guy as a priority target. He is the founder of the NEXTA media organisation and telegram channel which has been one of the major sources of news for developments in Belarus from an opposition POV for quite a while. Although no longer officially involved with the organisation he'll have a lot of knowledge the KGB will want.

I do think people are over-playing Russia's involvement in this. Why would they care about some relatively obscure (for them) media figure? Maybe they offered advice or didn't exactly stop it going ahead if they had prior knowledge, but the Belarusian KGB is more than capable of organising and executing this by itself.

 

[Crispy]

Normal flight plans for descent into Vilnius start well inside Belarus (purple = cruising altitude). Looks like the pilot tried to leg it into Lithuania but was persuaded (eg. threatened with a MiG) to turn around at the last minute. Really brazen shit.

 

[steeplejack]

It's ace of you to inform us of what's happening. Thanks. Also for the sources, which are definitely not on the side of the new pro-western oligarchy in the waiting, nor the new pro-western middle class which will leech off it.

Wait, you turn up half cut rambling about world wars with China and the vampiric pro-Western middle class. You haven't read any of these links. If you had, you'd have realised that they come from across the spectrum of opinion from Belarusian anarchism to Russian conservatism. Would you prefer it if I linked to Belarusian state media- record harvests in Mogilev oblast, a folk-singing competition in Baranovichi, spontaneous greetings for Batka at Gomselmash? You're a ranting old man in a beetroot-stained vest.

You seem to be a pro-Russian cheerleader on the basis of...well, they used to be Communist a long time ago, and aren't the West. Some sort of "radical" whose radicalism consists of clapping like a seal every time there's a seismic maneouvre in Putin's lower intestine.

It is possible to hope for the outcome that the Belarusian people actually voted for- release of political prisoners, a transitional government under Svetlana Tikanovskaya, and a move towards a democratic system beholden neither to Russia nor the West, comes about. That was the result of the election last summer, stolen by the current usurper. That the outcome of such a system would not be perfect, that there would be winners and losers from this transition, is pretty much a given. I don't know anyone who thinks that the transformation of power would be anything other than difficult, messy, and uncertain.

The alternative that you seem more than happy with is an illegitimate dictatorship using massive repression via police, OMON, army to thwart this democratic outcome. The mass jailing of folk who have done nothing criminal to fulfil quotas. The torture and in a few cases murder of people whilst incarcerated. The rape of protestors with police truncheons. Quite a price to pay for avoiding the rise to political power of "pro-western middle class leeches".

Maybe go back to posting about Manchester City. Maybe you make some sense there. You certainly don't on this thread.

 

[steeplejack]

 

[MickiQ]

From the EU's point of view they should have scrambled their own fighter planes to tell the Belarussian ones to fuck off and shoot them down if necessary

The EU doesn't react like that, if the EU was in charge of a military response to this, they would schedule a meeting for the Thursday after next to discuss scheduling a meeting to discuss scrambling fighters.
That aside, even if someone with the power to make a decision and had realised what was happening and actually sent fighters, they probably wouldn't get there until long after the plane had landed in Minsk. Realistically only one outfit in Europe could respond and that is the USAF which means the planes would probably have to come all the way from Germany. Factor in another hour to wake up Biden from his afternoon nap, "Come On Grandad, you're about to have your first war!" and it would still be too late.
Alas real life tends to happen at a very sluggish pace compared to a Tom Clancy novel

 

[DownwardDog]

<pedant>The EU isn't a military alliance, that's NATO's job...</pedant>

The EU has had the CDSP (Common Defence and Security Policy) since the 2009 Lisbon Treaty and has latterly been rebranded as the European Defence Union.

Some sort of European defence integration outside NATO is inevitable now.

 

[DownwardDog]

. Realistically only one outfit in Europe could respond and that is the USAF which means the planes would probably have to come all the way from Germany.

There's a NATO Baltic air policing mission in Amari, Estonia with Italian F-35s.

And several squadrons of Polish F-16 Block52+ at Poznan.

 

[Idris2002]

There's a NATO Baltic air policing mission in Amari, Estonia with Italian F-35s.

And several squadrons of Polish F-16 Block52+ at Poznan.

Bush 2 gave the Poles the F-16s for free, right?

Some kind of non-NATO Euro defence pact means inevitably a German dominated alliance. Those countries with memories of German dominated things may not be too keen on that one (nor will many Germans - "ve haff seen zis movie before").