Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

[Pickman's model]

Actually, gangster privatisations were reversed in the 90s by Lukashenko. Mafia were largely eliminated at that time too.

Yes the countries are aligned politically but there are significant important differences. It’s not helpful to just describe them as one and the same.

Not yet anyway

 

[steeplejack]

Not many, but it's a similar (but more crypto) tone in the Morning Star and from other Communist Party parts

MS:
"
Communist parties in Italy and Russia have warned against another US-sponsored “colour revolution” similar to those that took place in Georgia and Ukraine.

The Communist Party of Belorussia welcomed the “unconditional victory” of Mr Lukashenko, calling it the natural consequence of the economic growth of the republic since he came to power in 1994.

It blamed the protests on “subversive work” by “specially trained instigators, from outright fascists to inveterate criminals,” saying that it enjoyed the support of at least 18 fraternal communist parties.

It warned that “foreign puppeteers” were aiming to carry out a coup in Belarus. “It is clear that if they win, the country will face bloody chaos and landslide degradation,” a statement from the party central committee said"

The thing is, I can understand a regime loyalist coming out with this nonsense in Minsk.

What possible motivation is there for a British ‘leftist’ to believe the same?

Rather like the Harpal Brar lot. Just downright weird.

 

[steeplejack]

Update: Lukashenko heckled and booed at the Minsk Military Vehicle Factory this morning. Asked difficult questions by one worker who according to colleagues, suddenly "disappeared" midway through his shift.

At a separate factory a visibly rattled and nervous Lukashenko is advised to shoot himself, by a workers at a separate factory, with the leader having said earlier that the only way new elections would be held, would be for him to be killed first.

All potash mining in Soligorsk has stopped, with the company only holding eight hours worth of stock. This is a massive deal as Belarus is possibly the worlds' buggest exporter of Potash and Belaruskali (the State Potash Mining company) is one of the main foundations of a largely ailing economy.

BelAZ workers continue their strike despite threats that striking workers will be sacked and not paid if they fail to return. BelAZ sells one in three mining trucks globally.

State Television employees have been told that all supporters of the strike will be sacked forthwith. It seems the building is again full of regime loyalists and police.

Mass sacking are also promised by seething bosses in the construction industry and in sugar production at Gorodeya. No sign that threats and bullying are working.

The concerns mentioned here are amongst the biggest in the country. An already struggling economy will not be able to withstand this.

 

[steeplejack]

State TV appears to have been occupied by the military.

 

[belboid]

A friend is some godforsaken city that isn’t Minsk. They’ve been told to stay exactly where they are, and can only communicate with the outside world via gaming consoles. That said it is now very peaceful where he is, police n army have disappeared, explicit signs of violence ceased and the town square full of banners and flowers. Strike looks fairly solid.

 

[Streathamite]

Does anyone actually still read this bullshit?

True, bit weird that there are still such unreconstructed Marxist-Leninists about

 

[belboid]

True, bit weird that there are still such unreconstructed Marxist-Leninists about

None under seventy though.

 

[Streathamite]

None under seventy though.

I really hope you're right there, for the sake of the Yoot

 

[Idris2002]

For your pleasure and edification:

 

[steeplejack]

This article is very well worth reading. Russia likely to go for the ‘least bad’ option of trying to manage the post-Lukashenko transition.

 

[Streathamite]

This article is very well worth reading. Russia likely to go for the ‘least bad’ option of trying to manage the post-Lukashenko transition.

good read, that. Mind, I said more or less the same thing on this thread. Not bragging, because it seems obvious that engineering a transition is the no-brainer option

 

[steeplejack]

Well since our last update things aren't playing too well.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's National Co-Ordinating Council have formed and published their first statements / documents. The council contains a cross section of civil society and business. Again she calls for individual EU leaders not to recognise Lukashenko . Strikes are losing momentum. MAZ look like they're going back to work (2000 our Monday, 300 yesterday, police checkpoints and blockades outside the factory today). Dire warnings as to the consequences of strike action are issued at the mines in Soligorsk and at BelAZ in Zhodino. In Grodno, on the Polish border, things are still much more fluid with the local authorities co-operating with strike and protest organisers and a degree of freedom in the air.

There are much better organised counter-demonstrations in favour of Lukashenko, particularly in the eastern cities of Mogilev and Gomel. Again videos circulate on telegram of press-ganged public sector workers in buses, obliged to attend on pain of dismissal, and worse. There's little violence presently, although there was a nasty clash in Mogilev yesterday, where a pro-democracy protestor was run over, and a car sped off with another clinging to the bonnet (no one was hurt in the end).

Much more significantly, an aeroplane arrived last night full of senior FSB officials. They were taken straight into a meeting with either lukashenko or close advisers.

Plane loads of Russian TV crews were flown in to re-start the stalled national TV and break that strike, in return for the (comparatively enormous) salary of 5000 Belarusian roubles monthly. This morning police guard all institutions affected by strikes and deny protestors access. Arrests continue to be made although much less publically and violently. The methodology seems to be to control sites of protest, and apply maximum fear and intimidation. Sadly it is working in some places.

This morning Lukashenko makes a fantastical statement accusing Tikhanovskaya of being pro-EU/ Nato, Russophobic, planning to ban the Russian Orthodox church, and force the use of the Belarusian language in the army and the public services. This is pure fiction, as the NCC haven't had any policy discussions yet. He refers to them as the "Black Hundreds", the late nineteenth century ultra-nationalist Russian hooligan mobs, who terrorised Jews in what was then the Pale of Settlement (the whole of present-day Belarus was part of that territory). He promises to clean them up with brooms and shovels.

Critical days lie ahead. Russia will help Lukashenko regain control of public and broadcast space. They will work aggressively to decapitate the protests. But as always with Putin, he will be playing both sides. He will be grooming someone to take forward Russia's agenda in Belarus in the longer term. Last night, in a press conference, former diplomat and minister of culture Pavel Latushko gave a fiery speech, and blew all the other speakers out of the water. Keep your eye on him, particularly if he keeps himself out of jail.

The EU continue to wheel away behind the scenes but will be leery of upping their activity for fear of spooking the Russians. Annoyingly, Macron and Merkel allegedly talked over the heads of the Belarusian opposition yesterday with Putin directly, and were told that any EU interference would be unacceptable. However, the nuance and further detail of the conversation was not made public.The EU will sit on their hands for now other than diplomatic window-dressing.

In summary, it's shit or bust for the protestors iMO. The window for action is rapidly shutting. If the current momentum continues, a lot will have died down within a week leaving Lukashenko to pick off the recalcitrant hardcore. He was really wobbling on Sunday / Monday morning, but the protestors insisting on a peaceful and as far as possible legal approach has given him the time to re-group and develop a repression strategy. The problem is that the protestors are not playing Lukashenko as he is playing them. Lukashenko and his new Russian advisers don't give a shit about legality or fair play. My worry is that whilst the NCC talk and talk, and people continue to be arrested and/or intimidated into silence, they will quickly become another talking shop of failed ex-candidates based in exile.

Maybe I'm being too pessimistic but it doesn't seem a great outlook today.

 

[steeplejack]

Oh look, right on cue:

 

[Streathamite]

Here comes the complete stitch-up

 

[Pickman's model]

Here comes the complete stitch-up

in a few weeks belarus will stretch from petropavlovsk in the east to kaliningrad in the west.

 

[tim]

Here comes the complete stitch-up

That depends on how compliant people in Belarus are.

 

[Idris2002]

Actually, gangster privatisations were reversed in the 90s by Lukashenko. Mafia were largely eliminated at that time too.

Yes the countries are aligned politically but there are significant important differences. It’s not helpful to just describe them as one and the same.

I hadn't heard that, but I do know that my late sister's ex-husband spent time in Belarus. And whether he ever crossed the line to the wrong side of the law, I don't know, but I do know he is a dodgy, dodgy guy, who has visited top Mafia money hiding hole the Cayman Islands.

 

[Teaboy]

I hadn't heard that, but I do know that my late sister's ex-husband spent time in Belarus. And whether he ever crossed the line to the wrong side of the law, I don't know, but I do know he is a dodgy, dodgy guy, who has visited top Mafia money hiding hole the Cayman Islands.

Batka basically dealt with the gangsters by becoming the biggest gangster in town. Given what was happening in the country at the time (men in leather jackets extorting money out of anyone trying the run a business, not to mention the murders) it sounds like people were happy enough that there was relative calm. Things have clearly moved on since then yet the economy hasn't.

 

[Donald H]

No doubt it's US sponsored interference but in this case does Putin really care if Yakuchenko gets the boot?
And then we musn't forget that Putin has a good buddy in the Whitehouse.

 

[tim]

No doubt it's US sponsored interference but in this case does Putin really care if Yakuchenko gets the boot?
And then we musn't forget that Putin has a good buddy in the Whitehouse.

Who the fuck is Yakuchenko? And who are you? The fact that you can't get the name right suggests that you might not be the most clued up on the issue

 

[Donald H]

Hi Tim! Sorry about that mistake. I'm a newbie here and a Canadian and probably not as clued in to the situation as Europeans on this issue. But make no mistake, I'm at least as clued in, and probably moreso on US aggression throughout the world so surely we'll meet again! I know I'm going to like you a lot!
So do you think that Putin really cares about Lukashenko?

 

[vanya]

I don't suppose Putin gives a monkeys about Lukashenko but I doubt he wants to see a dictator removed by people power next door. Might give his own people ideas.

 

[steeplejack]

On oligarchy in Belarus and gangsterism / follow the money this is a really good article

Yes it's true that business-gangsterism is a preserve of the Lukashenko family. I read somewhere that he has salted away 11 billion US dollars from his time in office.

He did go hard after organised crime in the 90s- no one is saying it was for altruistic reasons- and has also moved heavily against football hooligans. This is unusual, as managers of hybrid / fake democracies (a la Putin, Orban, Gruevski) usually have the heads of hooligan firms on close but deniable terms in return for turning a blind eye to their excesses. Lukashenko doesn't have hooligan firms on speed dial, and in recent years has jailed a few of the higher profile ones associated with Dynamo Minsk.

The Chinese are the silent ones here. They have been granted very favourable terms for access to the Belarusian market in return for building a new national football stadium (not really needed incidentally) 'for free'.

As the article shows, however, the big players are the KGB and their ability to manage a free-for-all territory in Lukashenko's back yard around Orsha. This is clearly the first in a series of manoeuvres that they are making with regard to cleaning up, taking over and installing a Russian-style gangster capitalist economy after Lukashenko goes; the establishment of a caste of 'proto-oligarchs' with security services backgrounds. They will indulge Lukashenko's Brezhnev-era economics and maintain the visual forms of that for as long as he is in power but expect this flimsy "Soviet" economic veneer to be stripped out and skipped as soon as Batka is no longer a factor. It's arguably happening already, just no one is talking about it.

The city where organised crime is meant to be strongest is Borisov, but it has been fairly quiet during the recent protests.

Anyway, today the National Co-ordinating Council leadership was announced and includes the renkowned Belarusian novelist Svetlana Alexievich. The national Prosecutor-General immediately opened a case against the entire NCC, accusing them of trying to subvert state power, and of plotting a coup. Regardless of the profile of the people involved, this carries a 5 year jail term. The house of another NCC member, the politician Pavel Latushka, was attacked and vandalised; his family fled the country although he personally remains in Belarus.

A divide and rule strategy is emerging with attacks on the property and vehicles on known opposition supporters. The regime is making much more intensive attempts to show 'support' and flashmobs with regime flags are popping up in many places, to be harangued by the local factory boss, and police major.

Ominously, the army is talking about making manoeuvres in the region of Grodno where support for the opposition is still very strong and visible, and has for now sidelined the local political leadership and police. Lukashenko has spoken darkly of "Polish flags being flown in Grodno" promises a major "clean up".

This will trundle on for a good while yet.

 

[vanya]

Cheering State Thuggery in Belarus

The uprising in Belarus stands on a knife's edge. Following huge demonstrations and strike action that has brought industry to a juddering...

averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com

The uprising in Belarus stands on a knife's edge. Following huge demonstrations and strike action that has brought industry to a juddering halt, it's looking like the regime of Aleksandr Lukashenko is on its last legs. Popular consent has evaporated following his rigged election, and there has been some drift from the army and security services away from the state and toward the protest movement. Having got shouted down in mass meetings - he should be lucky that's all he's had to deal with - Lukashenko is looking to redouble repressive efforts, with riot police back on the streets rounding people up and administering beatings. By upping state intimidation and violence now, the president is hoping to ward people off from assembling this weekend in the sorts of numbers we saw last Sunday.

On Wednesday, the EU met and agreed to impose targeted sanctions on key regime figures, has resolved to put out a statement of solidarity with the protest while refusing to recognise the disputed election result, and offered its services as mediator between government and opposition to affect a peaceful transfer of power. The Coordination Council, set up by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya in Lithuania following her de facto expulsion after the rigged election leaves a lot to be desired, politically speaking. Initially calling for people to stop protesting, she has pleaded with the EU to back the movement and has agitated for fresh elections. For the EU, and especially the Baltic states and Poland, ever-weary of Russian revanchism, the removal of Lukashenko and his on again, off again love-in with Vladimir Putin for a dependably friendly government would be most welcome - hence its efforts at steering the opposition and, it hopes, the uprising in a pro-EU direction. For those interested in such things, the UK is following the EU line.

In these sorts of situations, sympathy, support, and solidarity goes to those risking life and limb. If Belarusian leftists are on the streets with the movement and fighting the dictatorship, the very least those of us sat comfortably in rich liberal democracies can do is listen to what they say and amplify their voices. Unfortunately, this is not the case among some who style themselves "anti-imperialist". Having seen what happened in Ukraine all those years ago, and Libya before that, in their imaginations the fundamentally open process of revolt has already been closed down. Because the EU are working to take advantage and bring any successor regime into its orbit, this is the inevitable consequence - if not the essential characteristic of the movement already. It leads to the absurd situation of a nationwide movement pigeon holed as reactionary whereas Lukashenko's disgusting gangster regime is more "progressive", and apparently socialist thanks to the still-sizeable presence of state industry. What can you say, some people are easily impressed.

I suppose it's unsurprising. Coming out of a period where revolts and mass movements were infrequent or easily derailed, and preceded by another stamped by the geopolitics of the cold war, so there are those who see mass mobilisations in countries not seen full in with Western governments as creatures of state-led subversion efforts. It's a fundamentally defeatist attitude assuming a priori the standpoint of proletarian passivity and multitudinous calm while according supernatural agency to our states, up to and including turning the repressed citizens of Europe's last dictatorship into their unwitting dupes. Often times these counsellors of despair and apologists for state terror mistake themselves for revolutionaries when, in fact, they're fundamentally conservative. If we're properly guided by a militant political science instead of tankie nostalgics, then no leftist would be in the position of defending a creature like Lukashenko from a popular revolt. And if you can do that there, think about the strange political contortions that might result here. Such as Britain's most prominent admirer of Stalin looking to cut deals with Nigel Farage and now, a scabby alliance with Scottish Tories.

Thankfully, such people are at the margins of the labour movement and the socialist left. They should stay there.

 

[MrSki]

Lukashenka threatens crackdown on Monday. Looks like it will turn nasty again.

Protestors gathering today in Minsk have been warned to disperse & hundreds of riot police around.

 

[MrSki]

Still massive protests today.

 

[not-bono-ever]

at the point there are deaths, it will implode I would suggest. Only beatings so far. Army given precedence for riot control over the filth now. Not sure how that is a going to work out as the military will have their own ideas for survival- as we have seen countless times before around the globe.Some rumours of the army supporting the demonstrators on a micro level- could be pivotal. the police are (invariably) cunts but no real force comparatively (I have been banged up in MInsk and was handed over to the local leather jacket boys for taxing. not a lucrative return for them BTW). Luka is parading about with well retro short AKM today. Hes not in a happy place

 

[teqniq]

Huge demo today:

 

[steeplejack]

Maria Kolesnikova, the last of the opposition trio still in Belarus, was abducted at 1000hrs this morning from the street, and speedily driven away in an unmarked van. The main players in her staff have all been disappeared, too.

Meanwhile a new tactic of unmasking OMON / police auxiliary goons has begun. One such man unasked after a skirmish was revealed to have a social media profile listing his residence as, er, St. Petersburg. So hired Russian thugs are amongst the regime forces currently.

Kolesnikova's abduction may yet turn out to be a fatal blunder by Lukashenko particularly if it's a 90s-style disappearance (i.e. extra-judicial execution) or if she appears zombie-like in a few days making pro-regime and anti-demonstration statements. I am concerned as a fair few faces from the 90s death squads have re-emerged recently in pro-Lukashenko demonstrations.

 

[steeplejack]

The attached graphic shows that five of the seven founder members of the Praesidium of the Opposition Co-Ordinating Council have ether been disappeared, placed under administrative arrest, or fled abroad. Only two remain presently at liberty.

Lithuani'a foreign minister Linkevicius is making a lot of noise about this, telling he EU they need to get serious about the Belarusian situation. Impressive though he is on this topic, he seems to be pissing in the wind at present.

If Merkel pulls the plug on Nordstream over Navalny and what's happening in Belarus that may change. But at present the 'civilised' world seems quite content to leave Belarus to its fate.