Lukashenka looked distinctly unwell during his recent confab with Vladimir Vladimirovich and even BELTA, the state propagandist, can't hide how bloated and ill he looks. He's clearly on some sort of steroid treatement but the nature of his illness(es) are a very closely guarded secret.
Of course opposition channels use rumours of the dictator's ill-health as copium with the situation, but there's no denying we're in the last 18 months of his tenure as president. In a recent walk about, in answer to a clearly staged question imploring him to put his name forward for the presidency next year, he stated that citizens should begin to get used to the idea of another president. He also stated that he has spoiled the country by taking on the role for so long, and perhaps convincing people that he'd be around for ever.
The mechanism of a transfer of power is underway, subtly. The irony is that all the high profile opposition, EU sanctions, warm words from the Biden administration and von der Leyen, will achieve his departure from the presidency, but not in the manner expected; it has merely galvanised the Russians into taking full control of the situation. It's really not clear how much progress is being made on the Union State legislation but there are much greater economic harmonisations. Yes Belarusian products may be banned from the EU / UK markets, but the country is now simply selling all its products to Russia and China- the Chinese have filled the vaccuum for potash sales which used to go to Europe.
When the election happens in 2025 I expect Lukashenka to depart and assume the role of chairman of the all-Belarusian people's assembly- the Soviet-style rubber stamp body convened regularly to "discuss" presidential decisions. This is a powerful role which will still concentrate enormous influence in Luakshenka's hands, but the Russians will not allow him to be a back seat driver as he many have fondly imagined in that position.
Lukashenka and his family will be given lifetime immunity from prosecution. And then, the Russians will install their own man as president- no one expects Natalya Kochanava, who is currently lined up to replace the dictator should he die, to assume that role permanently and it's not know if the Russians care at all about her. I'm expecting a strong figure from the KGB to be the next "president".
Meanwhile Lukashenka's usurper administration has sent another tranche of military equipment to the Russians whilst absurdly issuing threats to Ukraine over an alleged drone attack in Belarus, summoning the chargé d'affairs. This seems like bollocks and theatre. With all the material "loans" to the Russians, the Belarusian army would be cut to pieces were it insane enough to formally join the conflict. Increasingly it's a ceremonial guard for state occasions and for protecting the regime.
It's all theatre. The more things are abnormal, the more an illusionary "normality" and "stability" are projected in the country. If you let yourself be sucked in by BELTA you'd believe this was a propserous and happy country
The ceremonial rites of the state are still conducted with great solemnity. Lukashenka takes a great interest on the harvest and agriculture, alternating that with meetings in pompous presidential suites with everyone from the governors of Russian oblasts, Belarusian military and KGB, to regional chairmen of industry. The football championship is now of a terrible standard compared to a few years ago, but there is a tight race for the league title between three or four teams. But it's all coming to an end and I'm pretty sure many know this. Oddly, this also suppresses a desire to protest; if the old fart is leaving who would risk their lives protesting or taking direct action?
People are of course still persecuted from the events of 2020. There are 1400-1500 political prisoners still in jail as I write this. The high profile amongst them- Ales Bialitski, Viktor Babaryka, haven't been heard from for over a year.
A young film-maker and activist, Andrei Gnyot, currently sits in house arrest in Serbia, pending extradition procedings back to Belarus where he will face torture and a forever-and-a-day jail sentence, although opposition supporters are keeping the story in the news. It doesn't look great for him.
Belarus is back to getting a three line paragraph on p.38 of the newspapers once a fortnight. But the developments there are amongst the most worth keeping an eye on in European politics in the next 18 months. Nothing can be predicted with any certainty- Lukashenka's departure, the war in Ukraine and its outcome, global economic issues and looming stock market crises / China's exposure to those, the ability of ordinary citizens to endure worsening economic conditions and political repression, the relevance or otherwise of the democratic opposition. There is the best part of Belarus in exile and they continue to do amazing things- recently opening a retropsective exhibition of Ales Pushkin's in Warsaw.
This thread has been a lot more stagnant for obvious reasons in the last year or so but I shall try to keep it updated when there are things to say. Belarus is a country with such enormous potential; fertile land, beautful and very varied nature, hard working people, great literature and art, a rich sporting heritage. For all these advantages it's hard to think of a place in Europe that has had such a terrible history over the last century.
telegra.ph
