Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

[steeplejack]

Lots of excited internet blather yesterday about the dictator looking seriously ill in Moscow and unable to speak during the 9 May celebrations in Minsk- an unprecedented event. Defence Minister Khrenin did the speech and Luka didn't open his mouth, which is remarkable. The line is that Lukashenka caught a "virus" but as a result of his "being a man" pressed on with attending the parades in Moscow and Minsk despite being obviously unwell.

Lots of unverified chatter in English-language papers today about Lukashenka having knee and spine trouble and facing paralysis without an operation in the West which cannot happen because sanctions. There was also some drivel about his having been posioned.

He did look to be struggling and the 9th May celebrations are a huge deal for his regime so that's significant, but the unverified speculation as to the cause is similar to the annoying wishful thinking regarding Putin being "terminally ill".

It would be terribly convenient if he died suddenly, for Russia. A new proxy would be swiftly appointed by the Russians, one perhaps much more amenable to sending Belarus' 9,000 soldiers to the meat grinder, enabling acceleration of annexation processes which are stalling / going slowly. It would also be a moment of truth for the opposition in exile.

Separately the Belarusian KGB promises to release details of "international terror plots aimed at the 9th May celebrations" in the coming days, but no one's taking that seriously beyond the few old biddies who believe everything they see on official television.

Lengthy non-hyperventilating analysis of Luka’s health woes here (in Belarusian if using google translate)

 

[Isambard]

Luka has played hot/cold with Moscow over the years and if he met his end soon, a more amenable person would probably be installed.

Not sure the West is currently able to force through their puppet "opposition" in another colour revolution at the mo.

Controlling Belarus would enable RU to threaten Kyiv directly as the proxy war in Ukraine drags on seemingly in stalemate.

 

[steeplejack]

Not sure the West is currently able to force through their puppet "opposition" in another colour revolution

 

[Dystopiary]

Political prisoner, blogger, and anti-war activist Mikalai Klimovich has died in prison. He had been sent to jail, despite having a serious heart condition, for "reacting to a caricature" of Alyaksandr Lukashenka on a social network. He had said himself that he might die in prison. He lasted a little over two months.

Every day Lukashenka has more blood on his hands.

RIP Mikalai Klimovich.

Political prisoner Mikalai Klimovich dies in Viciebsk colony

Human rights centre Viasna demand to investigate Mr Klimovich's death, and highlight the lack of medical care for people imprisoned in Belarus:

We demand to investigate Klimovich's death and the lack of proper medical care in the colonies

 

[steeplejack]

The man died because he posted a ‘laughter’ reaction emoji under the image & convicted on that basis

 

[teqniq]

View attachment 374144View attachment 374145

Lots of excited internet blather yesterday about the dictator looking seriously ill in Moscow and unable to speak during the 9 May celebrations in Minsk- an unprecedented event. Defence Minister Khrenin did the speech and Luka didn't open his mouth, which is remarkable. The line is that Lukashenka caught a "virus" but as a result of his "being a man" pressed on with attending the parades in Moscow and Minsk despite being obviously unwell.

Lots of unverified chatter in English-language papers today about Lukashenka having knee and spine trouble and facing paralysis without an operation in the West which cannot happen because sanctions. There was also some drivel about his having been posioned.

He did look to be struggling and the 9th May celebrations are a huge deal for his regime so that's significant, but the unverified speculation as to the cause is similar to the annoying wishful thinking regarding Putin being "terminally ill".

It would be terribly convenient if he died suddenly, for Russia. A new proxy would be swiftly appointed by the Russians, one perhaps much more amenable to sending Belarus' 9,000 soldiers to the meat grinder, enabling acceleration of annexation processes which are stalling / going slowly. It would also be a moment of truth for the opposition in exile.

Separately the Belarusian KGB promises to release details of "international terror plots aimed at the 9th May celebrations" in the coming days, but no one's taking that seriously beyond the few old biddies who believe everything they see on official television.

Lengthy non-hyperventilating analysis of Luka’s health woes here (in Belarusian if using google translate)

Concerning the top photo in particular. Bunch of unpleasant coffin dodgers.

 

[steeplejack]

Lukashenka hasn’t been seen now for 3 days. Radio silence from his press service.

If he’s still MIA by early next week, something’s gone pretty badly wrong with him. Not been seen since appearance at 9 May commemoration mentioned above.

 

[JimW]

Lukashenka hasn’t been seen now for 3 days. Radio silence from his press service.

If he’s still MIA by early next week, something’s gone pretty badly wrong with him. Not been seen since appearance at 9 May commemoration mentioned above.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Dogsauce]

If he clocks out, I can see Russia more or less taking over to ‘retain stability and order’ or something like that. Only possible saving grace is that their army is tied up elsewhere at the moment so likely they don’t really have the means to march in and squash any dissent such a move would bring.

 

[The39thStep]

Anarchist/ well meaning liberal take over on the cards ?

 

[steeplejack]

Lads predicting anything presently is a fool’s errand.

It could be that he’s back on Monday in rude health.

One thing we can confidently say is that a ‘well meaning western takeover’ in Minsk is vanishingly unlikely.

 

[teqniq]

I hope Lukashenka dies real soon. That is all. I don't often wish ill will on ppl but he and Assad are up there in my in my fave top 10.

 

[Dystopiary]

Maybe he will have recovered enough by September to take up the twatty UN's invitation to go to New York and discuss sustainable development.
Or maybe the UN will have to make a decision regarding a Kremlin-installed replacement.
Or maybe something else. Who knows?
All smiles for the regime for now anyway:



Pavel Latushka on twitter

from the link he gives, translated

Spoiler: text

UN Secretary General António Guterres intends to invite the head of the Belarusian state (as Alexander Lukashenko considers himself to be. — Editor's note) to the September summit on the Sustainable Development Goals in New York. This was reported by the regional director for Europe and Central Asia of the UN Office for the Coordination of Development Activities, Gwi Yop Son, writes "SB. Belarus today". Read in full: Лукашенко хотят пригласить в Нью-Йорк на саммит ООН

"It is already known that the head of state will be invited there. On it, it will be possible to report on this ambitious goal of Belarus, on the review of the commitments undertaken to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and also to demonstrate achievements," said Gwi Yop Son. According to her, the invitation letter addressed to the head of state contains two requests from the UN Secretary General.

"A request that the member states of the UN do everything necessary to accelerate the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. And also about the fact that this work was carried out with the participation of representatives of civil society, the private sector and the government. We are ready to support the Republic of Belarus in every possible way," she said.

Gwi Yop Son also reported that the term of Joanna Kazan-Vishnivetskyi as the UN Resident Coordinator in Belarus is coming to an end this month. Therefore, she called her visit "to such a beautiful and wonderful country as Belarus" timely. The 2023 Sustainable Development Summit is scheduled to take place in New York on September 19-20.

Let us remind you that the last time Alexander Lukashenko was in the USA was in 2015. Then he just spoke at the summit on sustainable development. At the same time, Lukashenko has been under US sanctions since 2006. They were then imposed by George W. Bush and have been regularly extended ever since.

 

[The39thStep]

Lads predicting anything presently is a fool’s errand.

It could be that he’s back on Monday in rude health.

One thing we can confidently say is that a ‘well meaning western takeover’ in Minsk is vanishingly unlikely.

Yup , it’s bleak

 

[RD2003]

The only posible outcome if Lukashenko kicks it is either more of the same under somebody else, which may depend on how Russia fares in Ukraine, or a neo-liberal carve-up of the economy, with a section of the well-meaning liberals suddenly becoming astoundingly wealthy, and feted as heroes of the struggle all over the world. If victorious, the latter might allow freer trade unionism and so on, but will attack anything that threatens their project, and with western backing will inevitably win. They will make nice sounding statements about stuff like climate change and the need for universal human rights even as thousands of their own population sleep in doorways.

If the 'liberals' sieze the day, the fifteen or so proper anarchists who actually exist in Belarus will try their best. A few hundred youngsters dressed in black might even be mobilised to occasionally smash some windows on May Day, but their agenda might not be what we would assume it is. Socialism will continue to be a dirty word, at least among those who call the shots.

 

[steeplejack]

It would surprise me if well-honed succession plans aren't already in place a la 1989/90; I am sure the Belarusian KGB and their FSB counterparts have been discussing it for a while. There is a lot of avarice for the profitable "crown jewels" of the Belarusian state run economy; BELAZ mining trucks, Belaruskali potash, and so on.

Cracks are beginning to show in the elites between those arguing for a hardline continuation of Lukashenko's state, those positioning themselves for an authoritatiran carve up / theft / hollowing out of the state run economy, and the opposition in exile's plan. Tikhanovskaya is calling for a carefully managed transition, with the profitable parts of the state run economy remaining in state hands and a "managed decline" of the Soviet style welfarism, with those things continuing for an elderly population who have never known anything else, and withdrawn from younger working age people. Tikhanovskaya still intends to be president for a short period of about a year to allow a democratic process to take place, and a return to the pre-Lukashenko constiution, and beefing that up to prevent the emergence of another dictator. Well, it's nice idea, I suppose.

Realpolitik and where we are today suggests that Tikhanovskaya's plan is in a poor third place of these alternatives presently. There is the small matter of her being in exile and having been sentenced to fifteen years in prison, in absentia. Unfortunately, a mixture of options 1 & 2 seems much more likely.

The reason I said predictions were a fools' errand last night was based on the fact that Belarus is feeling very keenly the uncertainty of everything in the "Russian world" right now. Belarus' fate is tied closely to that of Ukraine's where Russia appears to be losing pretty badly. If Lukashenko had died a year-18 months ago a Russian minted takeover would have been 100% guaranteed. Now, they have much bigger and more pressing fish to fry than managing the old bastard's transition. The ideal situation is that Belarus somehow stays out the war, clings onto what's left of it's independence, and avoids being dragged into a possible civil war scenario in Russia.

There are simply too many variables at play, all at the same time, to be certain about anything. It's all a bit East Germany in the summer of 1989. Everyone knows the game is up, but the state is still working and still hurting a lot of people, whilst keeping the majority in a state of servile and fearful immiseration.

 

[steeplejack]

 

[Dystopiary]

 

[steeplejack]

Yes the Babrika situation very concerning. His son Eduard is being processed by Lukashenka's "courts" at present and will likely also get a double figure prison term.

In the event Lukashenka carks it / is already Costa del Blowfly, a law was passed in 2021 stating that the National Security Council will take over. Significant that securocrat prime minister Roman Golovchenko did a speech at yet another flagshagging parade yesterday in Lukashenko's absence.

5 days and no word now.

 

[Dogsauce]

Something’s up, senior Russian figures popping in by the look of it.

 

[Dystopiary]

Hanna Liubakova on twitter
5.10 PM May 14 2023

Her source, archived here in Russian and translated below :

The State Duma confirmed the information about Lukashenka's illness

The last time he appeared in public was on May 9: in the morning he was at a parade on Red Square in Moscow and hurriedly flew back to Minsk. The Belarusian media drew attention to Lukashenka's unhealthy appearance and his inability to walk to the Alexander Garden: he was taken by car to lay flowers.

At the celebrations in Minsk, he did not make a speech - this has never happened on Victory Day. Today Belarus celebrates the day of official state symbols, and Lukashenka did not appear in public again.

The first deputy head of the Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Konstantin Zatulin, told Rise that he knew what Lukashenka was sick with, but did not name the diagnosis.

"There is nothing supernatural there, it's not covid. It's just that the person got sick. Despite the fact that the man fell ill, he considered it his duty to come to Moscow, and then in the evening of the same day he held events in Minsk. Probably, he needs a certain rest - that's all.

Lukashenka's press service does not officially report anything, but unofficially talks about "working with documents". "They have such a job, they are obliged to say so. It may very well be that he really works with documents.

Not sure that last bit about working with documents has translated very well.

eta: link fixed

 

[teqniq]

If he croaks is it too much to hope that he does so in his own vomit, shit and piss? Personally, i think not. He and his regime have been responsible for ruining many people's lives. A bit of karma would be nice right now.

 

[frogwoman]

On the other hand looks like it may have been putin who done it

 

[steeplejack]

There's really no evidence of that. The average male lifespan in Belarus is 69.4- Lukashenka is 68.

It would suit the Russians, sure, but it's not like he went to Moscow in the prime of life and got Yuschenko'd.

Much more likely it's a heart attack, stroke, severe flu, something like that. It's certainly unprecedented and as long as radio silence continues from official channels speculation will grow.

 

[tim]

He probably has better health care than the average, man from Belarus.

 

[steeplejack]

The head of the Belarusian KGB, Ivan Tertel, stated that he "expects an attempt to destablise Belarus soon" this morning.

Now, that could be the ludicrous propaganda that was planned for last week before the old man started struggling. Or it could be the first shadow move in the KGB "managing the transition" to whoever will secure their interests.

 

[steeplejack]

well, he's still alive, but judging from this picture, not exactly clear how much use he is to anyone.

 

[Artaxerxes]

m

well, he's still alive, but judging from this picture, not exactly clear how much use he is to anyone.

No change then

 

[steeplejack]

Further clarification on the uncertain scenario that will unfold if Lukashenko dies or proves to be permanently incapacitated. Reading this very hard indeed to see how Tikhanovskaya ends up taking the reins; more likely a brief period of Kachanava followed by the annointment of Golovchenko or another, more Russia-frinedly candiate.



after Lukashenka....Lukashenka!

 

[Kaka Tim]

not sure lukashenko checking out will be "good for russia" - as it may well regnite the protests as the regime struggles to reassert order amidst internal power stuggles - thats the take in this articel - Vladimir Putin must be praying that Lukashenko survives
Russia may have to divert military force into Belaruss if it wants to keep its puppet.