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Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

Lukashenka addresses his military guys, "Poland is simply trembling."
Surely these generals wonder what they're doing here. Their faces look sceptical to me.

 
Yes that's the conference I was referring to. Nonsensical drivel from Lukashenko & the generals do look politely sceptical, however they have made a whole career out of doing anything for a quiet life.
 
One of the jailed partisans has now gone on hunger strike:
avtonom.org

Hunger strike of Ihar Alinevich: what is known now

Ihar Alinevich , an anarcho-partisan sentenced to 20 years for participating in the Belarusian uprising, went on hunger strike. Members of the Anarchist Black Cross collected the latest information about Igor from the Facebook of his mother Valentina Alinevich and from his close friends. Here's...
avtonom.org avtonom.org
 
teqniq said:
I know it may well be too much to hope but it would be great if Lukashenko came completely unstuck over all of this.
Click to expand...

I reckon there's a far greater chance of significant change in Belarus than in Russia - one of the things I've learned out here (and fuck me, our knowledge/understanding of Central/Eastern European history and relationships is fucking woeful) is that while 'the Poles' et al might despise Lukashenko and his bunch of bandits, there's a similar attitude of kin towards Belarus as there is towards Ukraine, in marked contrast to how they view Russia and the Russians.

There's an - to use an already overused phrased - off ramp for Belarus. An existing opposition, a feeling of kin, a common foe.
 
I don't think there's much doubt that significant change is coming in one way or another. Personally think it more likely that Putin's demise will precede that of Lukashenko and then all will depend on the attitude of the new paymaster towards their ageing, moustachioed client.

Lukashenko's desperation to stay in power at any cost- no matter how humiliating (giving tanks to Russia, accepting Russian invovlement in armed forces, having very limited distinct foreign policy of any substance, changing the constiution on nuclear weapons, having his country full of a foreign army) is indulged by Russia but I'm not really clear how he's perceived by possible successors / significant players in the nomenklatura- Patrushev, Prigozhin, & co. There are plans to privatise the glittering jewels of the Belarusian economy and divvy them up amongst the oilgarchs- Belaruskali in Soligorsk, BELAZ in Zhodino, AZOT in Grodno, state tobacco enterprises, MAZ / BELARUS in Minsk, etc etc. We all know how that will look.

Your point about feelings of "kin" between Poles, Belarusians, Lithuanians, Ukrainians is very well made. Most are able to distinguish between the regime and the poor folk who have to suffer it. The KGB museums that are tourist attractions in the Baltic States unfortunately are working at full steam ahead to their original purpose in Belarus.
 
hitmouse said:
Crossposting:
The Belarus ABC fundraiser didn't hit their target, and it was running on one of those sites where you have to hit your target to get anything, so they'll be in a bit of a shit situation at the moment. If anyone wants to donate directly to them, you can do it here:
www.paypal.com

Get your very own PayPal.Me link

Post it. Text it. Tag it. Share it. Shout it. And let your friends pay you back in a tap or two. Grab your PayPal.Me link today.
www.paypal.com www.paypal.com

They could really use the money right now, going through a big trial with ten defendants.
Here's their most recent round-up: News from Lukashenko’s prison cells, May 2022 – Anarchist Black Cross Belarus
Nothing particularly surprising, but as scummy as you'd expect:
Click to expand...
I sent these lads £50 a couple of weeks ago and received this
Hi!


Thanks a lot for your donation to ABC-Belarus, we need the money the
most at this moment. However, starting from the end of July, Paypal has
frozen our account and we are in the process of negotiating with them.
We have changed the paypal address to a new one and if you wanted to
make recurrent donations, cancel any automated donations and please use
the following link
Donate to Unterstuetzung fuer Gefangene und Menschen im Rechtskonflikt e.V.
Donate to - paypal.com
Help support Unterstuetzung fuer Gefangene und Menschen im Rechtskonflikt e.V. by donating or sharing with your friends.
www.paypal.com


We hope we will be able to access our money in the end, but meanwhile,
we will make a refund to you, so please check your account and send your
donation to the new link mentioned above.


Sorry for this inconvenience and thanks for your donation again.


In solidarity,
ABC-Belarus
Click to expand...
Fair play but then I checked my statement and I only got £47.54 back. FFS Liz.
 
News on anarchist prisoners from ABC Belarus:

Main news about anarchist prisoners in Belarus in October 2022 – Anarchist Black Cross Belarus

The trial of Krystsina "Kita" Charankova, mentioned in the above article, began on Thursday (the 10th). Antifa International did a short thread on twitter about that here.

Meanwhile, Evgeny Rubashko, Alexander Belov, Artem D Solovey and Artem S Solovey have now been in prison for over a year.
A friend spoke about what Evgeny means to them, read here: Freedom is a Right or the quote in spoilers below:

Zhenya is very dear to me, he's more than a friend, he's like my brother. I don't remember any moment when he's refuse to help or support me. Even when he was abroad. He was always happy for me, I could share my most inner thoughts and feelings with him. He would never say: «Don't worry, it's nothing», he has a special ability to really listen and understand you, break everything down and explain it, share your feelings. Sometimes I even thought that he cares about people around him than about himself. Although I know that he had hard times as well.

I love Zhenya because he's simple and genuine, and because he's strong and true to himself. I admire his ability to forgive and acccept people as they are. I can't do it and would love to learn that from him.

What did his arrest mean to me? I can't really put it into words... It's hard to explain but I knew it could happen, sooner or later they will come for him. I think he also knew. But you always try to keep such thoughts at bay. When it actually happened I wasn't shocked but I felt a lot of pain and anger. And I was scared. The first day was the hardest when there was no information besides the fact that he was beaten up. However, I know that he couldn't do it differently, we talked about it a lot before his arrest. And I can only accept and respect his choise, even though I really miss him


(Yes, there are two Artem Soloveys. I think this sometimes causes confusion about the four guys being reported as three.)
 
One of the three former opposition presidential candidates Maria Kalesnikova is in intensive care in Gomel after a long stretch in a prison punishment cell. She was the one who tore up her passport to prevent her forcible deportation to Ukraine and subsequently got 11 years in jail.

 
steeplejack said:
One of the three former opposition presidential candidates Maria Kalesnikova is in intensive care in Gomel after a long stretch in a prison punishment cell. She was the one who tore up her passport to prevent her forcible deportation to Ukraine and subsequently got 11 years in jail.

Click to expand...

Sadistic bastards wouldn't let her father see her. "Punishment cell" - such cruelty. 😡 Let's just hope she'll be ok.
 
This rather strange article suggests that the GRU are inclined towards a liquidation of Lukashenko in favour of a puppet leader who will facilitate the entry of Belarus into Russia as an "autonomous entity" and prepare the use of its armed forces for entry into the war. Extraordinary scenario posits the old man's assassination and blaming the hit on the West / NATO. As if anyone would bother to hit the senile old buffoon anyway.

www.ukrinform.net

Kremlin plotting to liquidate Lukashenko, seize control of Belarus army - think tank

Sources within the Russian military leadership say the Kremlin has made a decision on a radical “solution” to the issue of dragging Belarus into Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. â Ukrinform.
www.ukrinform.net www.ukrinform.net

:hmm:
 
IKEA is buying furniture products made in labour camps in Belarus.

This despite EU sanctions supposedly being in place on Belarusian companies, let alone obvious forced labour.

Some of Europe’s biggest furniture companies continue to buy products from Belarus despite sanctions imposed on the country in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — and many of those products are made using forced labor, according to a report out Friday by London-based NGO Earthsight.

Belarus’ ties to Russia mean that it is subject to sanctions, which include a ban on imports of timber (the sale of wood plays a major role in Belarus’ economy and the country’s forests are state-owned).
Click to expand...

Last week it was reported that the world’s biggest furniture company, Ikea, was not only sourcing some of its furniture from Belarus until June this year, but that some products were made using forced labor in Belarusian jails. Ikea has since stopped sourcing products from Belarus.
Click to expand...

European furniture giants buy products made in Belarusian labor camps: report

Franak Viačorka (Tsikanouskaya's senior advisor) posted this certificate from October last year, marked with the Forest Stewardship Council logo):
Bobruisk Penal Colony #2 certificate

He says "20 EU countries keep importing wooden furniture made by Belarusian prisoners, including political ones. In Jul2022, European companies, including IKEA, bought wooden furniture from Belarus worth €13.9 million. International organizations licensed Lukashenka’s prisons."



As of today (02/12/22) there are 1449 political prisoners in Belarus.
 
Belarus signs shadow / enhanced military co-operation deal with Russia. Shoigu turned up personally to sign it yesterday so not a trivial thing. Would be no surprise at all if it were some kind of takeover / absorption.

 
(the obvious point being that this is a terrible thing for Lukashenko is his army has been absorbed fully into Russia's western military district...his power derives from the army and security apparatus).

Suddenly I really feel the old man's days are numbered. However Lukashenko will meet his end (politically and / or physically) at the hands of his Russian masters with any democratic takeover further away than ever.

How much remains of "Lukashism" after his demise will be interesting to watch,
 
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