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Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

Various telegram channels have the regime down as having a prolonged tantrum over the new sanctions adopted by the EU & US against Belarus, which hits banking, air transport, the state tourism company that is now the state human trafficking company, and further sanctions on the key potash industry. All of the GUBOPiK leadership and other prominent regime catchfarts have also been targeted.

The sad thing is that the Belarusian people will suffer most and will lose years of their lives to this. But it's really the only card the EU & US have to play presently. A further tranche of sanctions are already being negotiated by the EC and are likely to come into force soon.
 
A few recent things:
 
Yep an awful situation, one of many, sadly. EU sanctions totally useless as well- so many loopholes that the regime's companies profits are actually up.
 
Something I didn't know until today is that apparently IKEA is massively in with Lukashenko, see e.g.:
(never seen this site before so not posting that as a default endorsement)

Appreciate that things seem relatively quiet at the moment, but it could be a useful focus for solidarity stuff in future?
 
Something I didn't know until today is that apparently IKEA is massively in with Lukashenko, see e.g.:
(never seen this site before so not posting that as a default endorsement)

Appreciate that things seem relatively quiet at the moment, but it could be a useful focus for solidarity stuff in future?

That's really interesting, thanks.

I'm compiling another miserabilist summary post of developments which I'll bash out in the next few days.

(the 'doubling volume' press release is from July 2019 so that was all underway long before the current political crisis and deepening sanctions hit the regime.)
 
Well, I think we can now safely say the end isn't coming for Lukashenko anytime soon. Why?

He has around 1,000 political prisoners in jail and the country is now full of Russian soldiers. Even in the unlikely event that the situation to the south de-escalates to the point where a lot of the Russians go back home, it would be at best fanciful to think that the Russians aren't intent on establishing a permanent and significant military presence in Batka's collective farm of nine million souls. Many of the new arrivals have travelled twelve days with their vehicles from Vladivostok, leaving reservists & cadets to look after the barracks and guard duty at home. There are reports from opposition quarters that there is some evidence of cracking in the Lukashist elite at the possible consequences of being a junior partner in action against the Ukraine. Some of the elites are worried about consequences and don;t see what good can come from it. But it's hard to tell if this is actually true or just wishful thinking from an increasingly beleagured and tuned-out opposition.

Some really heavy Russian kit & units are stationed in the country now, in addition to a beefing up of the Belarusian air force base at Baranovichi with Russian fighters,. There is some showpiece "joint readiness" exercsie being conducted to the west of the country, in Brest & Grodno, but the really dangerous concentration is to the South & South-East of Belarus along the Mazyr-Rechitsa-Gomel line. Missiles capable of hitting Kiev 90 kms to the south are in place. Motorised divisions, airborne troops, Spetsnatz, are all present.

In civilian politics there is ludicrous theatre around Belarus' "new" constitution. Lukashenko is supposed to give up the presidency soon, but he is engineering a sideways move to become chairman of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly (VNS), the equivalent of the old CPSU congress, without the actual party. It's engineered, basically, to have the old dictator still shaking a guiding hand for the rest of his life. It also throws some red meat to the traditionalist base- such as stating that marriage can only be between a man and woman, as the basis of family life.

Amongst other things Lukashenko is having a lot of meetings with Russian regional chairmen to try and drum up business. Why not? He's pretty much a regional chairman himself now. The much-trumpeted EU sanctions are having only patchy success. Whilst there are some notable blockages to Belarusian exports, with Lithuanian State Railways having cancelled a contract with potash manufacturer and key income generator Belaruskali from Feb 1st, and Norwegian firm Yara having cancelled dealings with the same company after longstanding pressure from activists, there are many loopholes and work-arounds. Some state companies have actually posted an increase in profits from exports since sanctions began. Russian & China are more than happy to make up the shortfall and the Belarusians are aggressively pursuing opportunities in African agriculture- with the regime in Zimbabwe being a reliable client.

What of the opposition forces concentrated in Vilnius? Well, there was a unity meeting (of all opposition factions) under Tikhanovskaya's leadership over the weekend, and some proclamations have been made. People within Belarus are encouraged to spoil their ballot in the constitutional referendum sceduled for the end of February, and record their spoiling digitally. Much work is being done to help families and relatives who have a loved one sentenced to long years of imprisonment, and around the ongoing coronavirus catastrophe in Belarus (everything is open; Lukashenko over the weekend encouraged everyone to catch Omicron as the best means of developing immunity. No, seriously.). There's some interesting chatter about what a democratic Belarus might look like, and how it might work.

This is valuable and interesting work from the opposition but a transfer of power, let alone the emergence of democracy, appears further away than ever. More worryingly, the interest from foreign heads of state and the EU appears to be drying up as they have bigger fish to fry right now. An un-named Euro diplomat said sadly before Christmas : "Well, you know, we tried everything with sanctions, but they just don't work". Sadly it seems this iteration of pro-democracy, anti-dictatorship politics will follow its predecessors into long years of exile and increasing irrelevance.

Meanwhile some of Belarus' best people from across the political spectrum; everyone from anarchists, to bloggers and youtubers, former presidential candidate Kalesnikova, to right of centre bankers (and also ex-candidates) like Babaryka, are serving double digit prison terms in horrible conditions. Officially, the opposition rhetoric is that they'll come out as soon as possible, and will be fully rehabilitated, whilst those that sentenced them will be held to account and punished in a new Belarus. It's a nice thought, anyway. With every passing day these words sound ever more fantastical and hollow.

As for the Russians, well, having been quite exercised in the last few months of 2021 of somehow getting rid of Lukashenko, they, like the EU / US, have currently much bigger fish to fry. Let the old man stay in place. Who cares anyway? With thousands of Russian soldiers here for the foreseeable future, the democracy bogeyman has slunk away to Vilnius and will likely stay there long after all but the true believers and those directly involved have forgotten the heady summer days of August 2020.

Lukashenko will die in his sleep one day. By then, the Russians will long have groomed a newly minted right of centre oligarch and Orthodox patriot to ease into the role of presidency- making some cosmetic relaxations, commuting some of the madder prison terms of the last few months, allowing the jailed rich- Babaryka and co- to leave early and go into exile, leaving the field clear for the carcasses of Belarusian state industry to be picked clean.

Everyone who can leave, is leaving, for Poland, the Baltic States, Ukraine...wherever. You can't expect people to wait forever for things to change.

If only a brighter picture could be painted. They say the darkest hour comes before the dawn, I suppose.
 
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Posted on the Ukraine thread earlier but equally relevant here, James Meek did a huge article on Russia and its neighbours which is worth a read:

If anyone needs a non-paywalled copy:


New interview with Belarus ABC:
 
On a lighter note, I feel that this piece of Belarusian history may be of interest to Pickman's model:
Later the LSM became famous for another political ruffian trick. During the elections to the Supreme Soviet of Belarus in 1995, the activists of the LSM started a loud campaign for their own candidate and initiated signatures collection. The programme of the anarchist candidate was a total mockery at the standard promises of other politics. For example, he promised to strive for penguin genocide in the Antarctic, to repaint orange the House of the Government, etc.
 
The following paragraphs are great as well, btw:
The primary opponent of anarchists at the electoral precinct was a candidate from the Beer-Lovers Party (BLP), who was at once blamed for beer amateurism and challenged to a beer duel. Strange as it was, but the challenge was accepted by the “beer-lovers.” The duel took place in the pub Svislach with a full house. The rules of the duel were set: an equal number of contestants from each side and the most substantial total amount of drunk beer would let a party win. The beer for the duel was paid by the BLP. As a result, anarchists lost but took advantage of the free beer.

Nevertheless, the candidate from the LSM was taken seriously. The candidate from the BLP, afraid of further competition, offered money to anarchists for them to withdraw their candidate. The cash was accepted, and later anarchists could shout about the corruption of the elections at every street corner.
Although, Lukashenko being Lukashenko, the punchline is a bit less funny:
Afterwards, the BLP Executive Committee had to emigrate to Poland in full muster and then to the Czech Republic because of criminal prosecution; the party seized to exist in 1996.
 
Yes Lukashenko has a bizarre Brezhnevite fixation with persecuting anarchists. Also gives a bloated security police (GUBOPIK) something to do in quieter times.

In other news, the deranged old buffoon has today been addressing a hastily cummoned "National Assembly" where he apparently claimed that he personally had ordered Russian troops into the country to shore up the southern border with Ukraine.


FKMGNxKXIAIOFWq.jpg

Productivity will be way down in Belarus today as even the army had to set aside what they were doing to endure his throaty, parallel-universe ramblings. It would have been a hastily convened "ideological day" in state enterprises, where employees are made to sit and listen to the moustache.
 
After his belligerent verbal incontinence regarding the possibility of a Ukrainian invasion on Russian TV last week, today Lukashenko denied that there was any plan to invade, accusing the Western powers of "formenting a proxy war". He is meeting his paymaster later this week in Russia.
 
Sofia Sapega, girlfriend of Roman Protasevich, has gone on trial, the trial is being held in secret. I don't know of any reliable updates since March 29th.

Girlfriend of Belarusian journalist Roman Protasevich goes on trial

Protasevich was editor of Nexta, a news outlet that reported opposition protests that took place after the dodgy election result in favour of Lukashenko.

Sapega and Protasevich were detained in May 2021 after their Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was intercepted by Belarusian authorities and forced to land in Minsk.
This was discussed up thread. They have been under house arrest since June last year.

24-year-old [Sapega] faces six years in prison if convicted of numerous charges.

[Protasevich is] awaiting trial for allegedly inciting opposition demonstrations. He faces up to 15 years in prison.

Both Protasevich and Sapega appeared in "confession" videos shortly after their arrest, which their supporters say were coerced.
 

On 22 March, a dozen of local antifascists and DIY band members were arrested in Mozyr following searches in their homes. As a result, two women were detained under criminal charges – Kristina Cherenkova (inciting hatred to cops for a few Instagram posts and comments) and Anna Pyshnik (assistance in extremist activity for sending a video recording to the NEXTA Telegram channel that had been recognised as an extremist formation). They are kept in a pre-trial detention facility.

SIZO-3, ul. Knizhnaya 1A, 246003 Gomel BELARUS

Other people got arrested for 10 to 15 days for disseminating extremist materials. They have allegedly shared some posts from ‘extremist’ media. Their phones and other devices were seized as a tool of committing the infraction.

Relatives are collecting donations to cover the legal costs and care packages

paypal: a.charankova@gmail.com
 
Big crack down on trade unionists this week:
 
In that interview above, "fucking around with you like Dedok" almost certainly refers to Nikolai Dedok, an incredibly brave anarchist who's currently a political prisoner in Belarus.
God Lukashenka's thugs are cruel bastards.
 
Big crack down on trade unionists this week:

b.b.b.b.b.b.b.b.....but but but, Lukashenko has preserved the best bits of the USSR and offered an alternative to neoliberal capitalism...

:rolleyes:
 
Fairly obvious now that Lukashenko's fate is tied in intimately with that of Ukraine. If Ukraine is subjugated / destroyed any hope of the old man being forced out will vanish. Thankfully, the Ukrainians have other ideas. I know of at least 2-3 free Belarusian battalions fighting on the Ukrainian side in the conflict and Tikhanovskaya and the united opposition have thrown their lot in with the Ukrainian government, doing their best to link the Belarusian and Ukrainian resistances.

The Belarusian armed forces are notably absent as their direct involvement in the war means the regime may face an uprising from their own military who are overwhelmingly opposed to the conflict, even at senior level. The last thing the Russians need is a Belarusian armed uprising right now, so I think a quiet compormise- Belarus providing a staging ground and recovery platform for the Ukrainian conflict- has been reached. The direct involvement of the Belarusian armed forces will risk an existential threat to the old buffoon's grip on power, and looks like being perceived as an unnecessary risk.
 
Fairly obvious now that Lukashenko's fate is tied in intimately with that of Ukraine. If Ukraine is subjugated / destroyed any hope of the old man being forced out will vanish. Thankfully, the Ukrainians have other ideas. I know of at least 2-3 free Belarusian battalions fighting on the Ukrainian side in the conflict and Tikhanovskaya and the united opposition have thrown their lot in with the Ukrainian government, doing their best to link the Belarusian and Ukrainian resistances.

The Belarusian armed forces are notably absent as their direct involvement in the war means the regime may face an uprising from their own military who are overwhelmingly opposed to the conflict, even at senior level. The last thing the Russians need is a Belarusian armed uprising right now, so I think a quiet compormise- Belarus providing a staging ground and recovery platform for the Ukrainian conflict- has been reached. The direct involvement of the Belarusian armed forces will risk an existential threat to the old buffoon's grip on power, and looks like being perceived as an unnecessary risk.
Yeah, there's a (perhaps slightly over-optimistic) bit of commentary on that in the "After the War?" article from Vladimir Platonenko/Avtonom:
If in Ukraine, the war had reconciled the authorities with the people, or rather, the people with the authorities, then in Belarus it is rather the opposite. Lukashenko is not eager to go to war. He does not want to get involved in this showdown, either. However, he has to take part in it, even if only by permitting Putin’s army to pass through his territory. And the question of the Belarusian army joining the war remains open.

The people do not want war with Ukraine. They even organize sabotage on railroads. Moreover, Belarusian volunteers are already fighting on the side of Ukraine, formed into a separate unit. It’s clear that in the future, this will become the basis of the anti-Lukashenko army. One can imagine which side will receive the sympathy of the majority of the Belarusian people, if there is a war between the supporters and opponents of Lukashenko. Since the West does not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president, it must be assumed that the anti-Lukashenko army will not be short of food, equipment, or weapons. And most likely it will win. The question is what will happen in Belarus afterwards.
Perhaps things won't be quite as simple as that, but Belarusian oppositionists getting combat training, experience and access to equipment definitely won't make Lukashenko's life any easier after the war.
 
Yep there's a lot of hopium from the Belarusian opposition and has been ever since Tikhanovskaya was forced out of the country at the back end of 2020.

They are doing all they can, realistically, and are providing a useful role as co-ordinators of opposition efforts; raising money for Belarusian fighters in Ukraine, continuing work with political prisoners who are incarcerated in terrible, violent, insanitary conditions; trying to keep in sight as major geopolitical discussions continue about Belarus / Ukraine and trying to predict the mutation of the Putinite / Lukashist authoritarian system.

Lukashenko has a tightrope act; look enthusiastic about the war and buy wholeseale the fantasy Russian narrative about being subject to an existential threat; at the same time, not looking so enthusastic that he has to take part. The wide ranging and comprehensive sanctions likely also to affect the Belarusian economy much faster and harder.

No future looks particularly bright for Lukashenko and his small minority of apparatchiks, catchfarts, self-serving opportunists, and true believers. In this situation he is well practiced in sitting down, doing not too much and not budging, his not budging dependent on an ever more savage crackdown on even the merest hint of dissent. Whilst it looks bleak for the dictator beyond the short term, there is also no clear path to power, democracy and the dismantling of the Soviet facade that Belarus has hidden behind since 1994 when Lukashenko swept to power on an "anti-corruption" ticket.
 
This is Irdorath, a folk-rock band from Minsk, some members are currently in prison.
The crime was to play music at the protests in 2020. :rolleyes:


❤️



(Not to be confused with an Austrian metal band with the same name!)
 
Court speech from the defendant Jauhien Rubashka/Evgeny Rubashko:
The judge reprimanded me for my laughter at the Kafkaesque absurdity of the trial, for my remarks, and even for swearing (if it was audible) when I was overwhelmed with indignation. I’m guilty of being a living person with emotions, and I don’t know how to read out “confessions” with the expressionless face of the state prosecutor, when it is known that they were written in the torture cell or after torture and beatings by GUBOPiK in the Investigative Committee.

And if today we are being judged according to the Criminal Code of the Republic of Belarus, then there should not be those who are more equal than others. As a reminder that the law is for everyone, I would like to quote from the protocol of the decision of the tribunal over the Nazi judges.

“The defendants and their colleagues distorted, reversed, and in the end achieved the complete destruction of justice and law in Germany. They made the judiciary an integral part of the dictatorship. They removed any semblance of judicial independence. They threatened those who got into the courts, intimidated them, deprived them of their fundamental rights. The “trials” they carried out were horrible farces, with rudimentary remnants of legal procedure that were nothing but a mockery of the unfortunate victims!”

We determine our lives by our own personal and collective choices. Someone chooses to inscribe their names in the history of political repression. And if someone involved in them gets hiccups, then know that your names are remembered by political prisoners who are in prison, and with them their relatives and friends, and with them the whole country.

And my final word will not be spoken until all are free!
 
The woman whose plane was rerouted and forced to land in Belarus last year, and was arrested along with her activist partner, has been convicted of charges including "inciting social hatred" and sentenced to six years in prison. Sofia Sapega, a Russian citizen, and "Roman Protasevich were flying from Athens to Vilnius, Lithuania, a year ago when their plane was ordered to land in Belarus accompanied by a fighter jet because of an alleged bomb threat."

She plans to appeal.

Belarus plane arrest activist Sofia Sapega sentenced to six years

Protasevich was the editor of Nexta, a popular channel on the Telegram messaging app that was used to help organise protests in Belarus after the president, Alexander Lukashenko, won a disputed sixth term in August 2020.

Sapega ran another Telegram channel that published the personal data of civil servants and military personnel who took part in mass repressions of the protests.

Western countries denounced the plane diversion as tantamount to air piracy by Belarus. The European Union banned Belarusian airlines from its air space and airports as part of sanctions against the country.
 
Stanislav Shushkevich, first leader of Belarus after its independence following the break-up of the USSR, has died aged 87. He had recently been hospitalised with Covid-19.

He was born in Minsk in December 1934. Under the Stalin regime, his father was twice arrested and sent to work camps in Siberia. During the Second World War, the city was occupied by Nazis. His family and their neighbours protected a Jewish family by pretending they were Armenian. After the war, and school, Shushkevich went on to study at Belarusian State University, then the Institute of Physics at the Belarusian Academy of Sciences. While working at a radio factory, he was put in charge of teaching Russian to Lee Harvey Oswald, who had defected to the Soviet Union, and who was later to be accused of assassinating JF Kennedy before his own murder.

Shushkevich became a leading physicist, and after the catastrophe at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, he was greatly concerned of the damage that would befall Belarus, criticising the Soviet government for not doing enough. He tore up a picture of Mikhail Gorbachev which he'd had hanging in his office, having previously respected him.

After the 1991 coup attempt, he, Boris Yeltsin, and Leonid Kravchuk of Ukraine, signed the declaration that dissolved the USSR. As the new leader of an independent Belarus, he committed to getting rid of the nation's nuclear weapons. Shushkevich's leadership ended in late 1994 following disputed allegations of corruption by Alexander Lukashenko.

In July 1994, Lukashenko was elected as new leader, a position he still holds following a series of elections widely held to be unfair. Shushkevich was critical of Lukashenko, and remained so for the rest of his life. In an interview in September 2019, he said, "Our leaders are mostly uneducated. For example, Lukashenko. He is poorly educated. He knows that he should make every effort, take all measures to keep power. He doesn’t have other goals. He is not concerned about doing better for Belarus."

Last December, he stated, "This man will do anything to retain power... Lukashenka has been in power for over 10 thousand days. However, the achievements of his rule are miserable- Belarus ranked last in all positive indicators in Europe... He has arrested more than a thousand people in the country. This is a criminal entrenched in the position of the President fraudulently. It is not economists or political scientists who run us now, it is the law enforcers who take care of themselves."

"Putin may want to devour Belarus now. There is no place for Lukashenka to go. He will do all Putin's orders. They are rejecting national symbols, Belarusian history, imposing bans on anything and everything. Many people are in prison. This is called state terrorism."

He was given a monthly pension of only $1.80, but supplemented this measly income by giving lectures in universities in many different countries. Despite his condemnation of Lukashenko and Putin, Shushkevich was optimistic for the young people of Belarus.

Radio Free Europe have run an obituary:

Stanislau Shushkevich, First Leader Of Independent Belarus, Dead At 87




(Edited to fix link.)
 
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