Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?
- Thread starter steeplejack
- Start date
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Am I right in thinking there's there a no-fly zone over Belarus currently? So what's to stop the EU from taking the wind completely out of the hybrid warfare schtick by allowing these people to make their asylum claims?
If there really are ISIS troublemakers among them (which I assume is the standard bad-faith objection from the cunty right-wing blowhards in the EU to letting these poor souls make their asylum claims), then wouldn't it make more sense to have them in a place where someone could more easily keep an eye on them?
Of course, if they can keep flying in these unfortunate people then the pressure's still on, but either way something needs to be done that isn't "fortify the border against a the deadly threat of a bunch of cold, starving, unarmed people".
If there really are ISIS troublemakers among them (which I assume is the standard bad-faith objection from the cunty right-wing blowhards in the EU to letting these poor souls make their asylum claims), then wouldn't it make more sense to have them in a place where someone could more easily keep an eye on them?
Of course, if they can keep flying in these unfortunate people then the pressure's still on, but either way something needs to be done that isn't "fortify the border against a the deadly threat of a bunch of cold, starving, unarmed people".
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Not only is Belarus in a no-fly zone, they're about to lose access to the European air traffic control system- a further enforcement of their isolation.
The presence of ISIL was a claim made by an opposition politician who has access to networks in the country with links to / serving in the security services, so not necessarily just lazy right wing stereotyping. Of course the populist-right governments in Poland and Hungary will amplify these claims whether true or not. Orban (Hungary) and Janša (Slovenia) in particular reliably taking a pro-Russian line. Orban has also been key in stirring up the current problems in Bosnia and North Macedonia.
Something does need to be done but far from clear the EU has either the will or the desire to do the right thing. These people are trapped and Lukashenko, with the connivance of the Russians, is deliberately engineering this as a humanitarian crisis. He is absolutely relaxed about gambling with the lives of thousands (there are around 10,000 migrants currently in Belarus with flights arriving daily) in an attempt to get sanctions lifted and his electoral theft legitimised. Sadly, the EU, which is losing in foreign policy terms wherver you look, seems quite content with being indifferent to the fate of these refugees.
Look out for a hand-wringing, condemnatory tweet from an EU commissioner just before the weekend.
Edited to Add: Poland will cease operating this road border crossing at 0700 tomorrow "owing to the escalation of the migrant crisis".
The presence of ISIL was a claim made by an opposition politician who has access to networks in the country with links to / serving in the security services, so not necessarily just lazy right wing stereotyping. Of course the populist-right governments in Poland and Hungary will amplify these claims whether true or not. Orban (Hungary) and Janša (Slovenia) in particular reliably taking a pro-Russian line. Orban has also been key in stirring up the current problems in Bosnia and North Macedonia.
Something does need to be done but far from clear the EU has either the will or the desire to do the right thing. These people are trapped and Lukashenko, with the connivance of the Russians, is deliberately engineering this as a humanitarian crisis. He is absolutely relaxed about gambling with the lives of thousands (there are around 10,000 migrants currently in Belarus with flights arriving daily) in an attempt to get sanctions lifted and his electoral theft legitimised. Sadly, the EU, which is losing in foreign policy terms wherver you look, seems quite content with being indifferent to the fate of these refugees.
Look out for a hand-wringing, condemnatory tweet from an EU commissioner just before the weekend.
Edited to Add: Poland will cease operating this road border crossing at 0700 tomorrow "owing to the escalation of the migrant crisis".
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Lukashenko threatens to block gas supplies to Europe if further sanctions are imposed
Trouble is, that's not necessarily in Putin or Gazprom's interests.
Trouble is, that's not necessarily in Putin or Gazprom's interests.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Haven't listened to them, but just seen that the Elephant in the Room radio show/podcast has a couple of episodes on the Poland/Belarus border situation:
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
It's being widely reported that Poland, Latvia and Lithuania are discussing involving Article 4 of the NATO charter over the Belarussian border situation.
There's been, over the last 2 weeks, a large Russian mobilisation of forces on the Ukrainian border - lots of Artillery, logistics, and armour. The CIA director was sent to Moscow to draw some big red lines, apparently without much success.
A couple of Kremlin controlled 'news' outlets have been publishing articles accusing Norway of militarising Svalbard, in contravention of the Treaty.
Putin, according to Russian media, amusingly - no doubt trollingly - is offering to meet with Merkel so that Germany and Russia can discuss the Polish border...
There's been, over the last 2 weeks, a large Russian mobilisation of forces on the Ukrainian border - lots of Artillery, logistics, and armour. The CIA director was sent to Moscow to draw some big red lines, apparently without much success.
A couple of Kremlin controlled 'news' outlets have been publishing articles accusing Norway of militarising Svalbard, in contravention of the Treaty.
Putin, according to Russian media, amusingly - no doubt trollingly - is offering to meet with Merkel so that Germany and Russia can discuss the Polish border...
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
all feels a bit 1914 somehow. Hope I'm wrong.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
It feels the same to me. I don't think Vlad wants a war, but I'm afraid that his previous successes have allowed him to believe that there are no red lines, and that other states don't have agency, and that other states will acquiesce to his plans simply because they are his plans.
The really big problem is that Russian doctrine - in everything from 'greyzone ops' to the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons - is that if you want your opponent to de-escalate, you must escalate. It's a kind of exceptionalism - Putin, and the Russian political/diplomatic/intelligence/ military elites genuinely believe that they can use force in a way that others won't because those others are scared of Russian retaliation.
That's the danger - that Vlad will have a clever idea too far, he'll get into a conventional fight with NATO that he'll lose, and in order to save himself/Mother Russia, he'll use battlefield nukes to fend off a NATO victory/advance, while threatening massive strategic nuclear war if NATO replies with its own battlefield nukes - and he thinks that NATO will back down in the face of that threat.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Concentrated attempt by 100s of migrants to storm the border this evening, assisted by Belarusian border forces.
Merkel allegedly spoke to Lukashenko earlier.
Not really great.
Merkel allegedly spoke to Lukashenko earlier.
Not really great.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
From a few hours earlier:
www.theguardian.com
"...
On Monday, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, announced preliminary moves towards a fifth round of sanctions, aimed at those organising the despicable exercise. Airlines and travel agencies involved in transporting migrants to Minsk will also be targeted.
This is, of course, a reasonable response to Mr Lukashenko’s provocation. Europe must, as Mr Borrell put it, “stand up to the instrumentalisation of migrants for political purposes”. But this is exactly what is happening on the EU side of the divide, as well as in Minsk. Poland’s rightwing nationalist government – which has notoriously obstructed all attempts to establish a humane EU-wide asylum system – used the current crisis to pass a law allowing the pushback of migrants without consideration of asylum applications. Such refoulement is in contravention of the Geneva convention on human rights, but there has not been a murmur of dissent from Brussels. Warsaw has also committed to building a Trump-style border wall. The president of the European council, Charles Michel, visiting the Polish capital last week, declared that EU funding could legally be made available for such barriers. After an autumn of bitter argument over Poland’s illiberal disregard for EU laws and norms, Brussels and Warsaw are suddenly joined at the hip on the need to keep a few thousand frozen migrants out of the EU at any cost. Britain, keen to signal its own Fortress Europe credentials, has sent a small team of soldiers to show solidarity with the sentiment.
Since the migrant crisis of 2015, Europe has collectively hardened its heart against vulnerable outsiders. The stand-off in the forest has become a litmus test of just how callous it is prepared to be. Urgent humanitarian aid and assistance is required if greater loss of life is to be avoided. Mr Lukashenko will not provide it. The EU must."
The Guardian view on the EU and Belarus: vacating the moral high ground | Editorial
Editorial: Europe must provide proper humanitarian aid to the migrants deceived and manipulated by Alexander Lukashenko
"...
On Monday, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, announced preliminary moves towards a fifth round of sanctions, aimed at those organising the despicable exercise. Airlines and travel agencies involved in transporting migrants to Minsk will also be targeted.
This is, of course, a reasonable response to Mr Lukashenko’s provocation. Europe must, as Mr Borrell put it, “stand up to the instrumentalisation of migrants for political purposes”. But this is exactly what is happening on the EU side of the divide, as well as in Minsk. Poland’s rightwing nationalist government – which has notoriously obstructed all attempts to establish a humane EU-wide asylum system – used the current crisis to pass a law allowing the pushback of migrants without consideration of asylum applications. Such refoulement is in contravention of the Geneva convention on human rights, but there has not been a murmur of dissent from Brussels. Warsaw has also committed to building a Trump-style border wall. The president of the European council, Charles Michel, visiting the Polish capital last week, declared that EU funding could legally be made available for such barriers. After an autumn of bitter argument over Poland’s illiberal disregard for EU laws and norms, Brussels and Warsaw are suddenly joined at the hip on the need to keep a few thousand frozen migrants out of the EU at any cost. Britain, keen to signal its own Fortress Europe credentials, has sent a small team of soldiers to show solidarity with the sentiment.
Since the migrant crisis of 2015, Europe has collectively hardened its heart against vulnerable outsiders. The stand-off in the forest has become a litmus test of just how callous it is prepared to be. Urgent humanitarian aid and assistance is required if greater loss of life is to be avoided. Mr Lukashenko will not provide it. The EU must."
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
The word 'assisted' is doing a lot of work here. Forced at gunpoint seems more like it.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Watched this on RT Al-Jazz and BBC to try and get some blance (not that you can actually get balance by watching opposing propagandists) and all I can say is anyone who brings their small child to the front of a confrontation involving stones, teargas and water cannon purely to make a point to the waiting journos is an utter cunt.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Probably better to leave your children alone in the woods. Hardly any bears in that part of the world.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
What a stupid thing to say, I don't suppose you saw the very elderly woman with the crying toddler eagerly jesturing to the RT Journalist, both of them stuck right at the front line?, neither of them should have been there in the obviously planned skirmish, any responsible parent or grandparent would hold them in safety not bring them to the front line
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Obviously planned skirmish? Yeah sure, it's pretty obvious they planned to do more than just sit in the woods while starving and freezing to death.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Obviously not paying attention.
Lots of evidence from journalists, as well as from migrants themselves that they are being physically emptied from the makeshift camps - if they ever camp, rather than being herded off the busses from Minsk - and frog-marched to the physical border by Belarussian troops. Lots report intimidation, a few actual beatings to force them onto the wire.
Talk of leaving children and the old in a 'safe space' is simply ignoring the reality of what's happening.
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
I should imagine the people at the border were probably sold a bit of a line, "Come To Sunny Belarus and after a day sightseeing in beautiful Minsk, catch a bus to the Polish Border where you can claim asylum and begin your new life in the EU"
They've probably twigged on by now they've been sold a dud but they're stuck. They're just pawns to Lukashenko, he doesn't care if they starve to death on the Border. Hell if the Poles don't let them through in the end, he will probably just have them shot as its cheaper than sending them home.
As for the Poles they aren't going to let them in without a cast iron guarantee that someone else will take them not least because Lukashenko will just ship in another load and do it again. Can't see how this is going to end in anything but tragedy.
They've probably twigged on by now they've been sold a dud but they're stuck. They're just pawns to Lukashenko, he doesn't care if they starve to death on the Border. Hell if the Poles don't let them through in the end, he will probably just have them shot as its cheaper than sending them home.
As for the Poles they aren't going to let them in without a cast iron guarantee that someone else will take them not least because Lukashenko will just ship in another load and do it again. Can't see how this is going to end in anything but tragedy.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
If it was planned it wasn't planned by them.
not-bono-ever
meh
Polish like to think of themselves as Central Europe
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
De-escalation by folk returning home.
The Iraqi government- weak though it is- has done more than the whole EU in the last week to solve the crisis. 200 of these people who have been cruelly used have requested a repartriation flight from Minsk and will be returned home on 18th November. The Belarusian "Honorary Consul" in Baghdad has had his work permit revoked.
Meanwhile the Syrian Cham Wings airlines has cancelled flights to Minsk, to prevent further people being conned in this way. Turkish airlines have blocked Syrian and Iraqi passport holders from using its services to Minsk. New EU sanctions will pretty much turn the whole of Belarus into a no-fly zone by authomatically sanctioning (denying access to EU airspace) any airline or travel agency involved in this, wittingly or unwittingly.
It's straightforward human trafficking, organised by a criminal gang masquerading as a government. When Lukashenko falls / dies the people responsible, largely Ministry of the Interior employees who are well known, need to spend very long years in jail for these crimes against desperate folk.
It must be said that renewed German administrative stalling on Nordstream 2 may concentrate minds in the Kremlin. Lukashenko now is little more than a regional governor who will be dispensed with when he has outlived his usefulness.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
ABC Belarus continue to publish their monthly updates - here's the latest:
Skipping over the updates about specific cases, their take on the big picture is:
Repression in general
During October, at least 95 more people were convicted in politically motivated criminal trials in Belarus.
As of late October, 831 persons were declared political prisoners by human rights organisations.
In late October, a joint statement was produced by a number of political initiatives and organisations, suggesting that criteria of recognition a person as a political prisoner should be applied more widely
(Dissidentby — Joint statement of the belarusian civil society on the political emergency in Belarus and the full number of political prisoners). According to estimations of authors of the statement, there were 1021 political prisoners and 287 more subjected to politically motivated persecution (e.g. people sentenced to restraint of freedom without assignment to correctional facility). ABC Belarus co-signed the statement, although with reservations and criticism (we suggest that criteria have to be even wider).
Human rights defenders and journalists are two groups severely affected by state repression. Authorities aim to wipe out all independent journalists away from the country, and to large extent they succeed. Many of the remaining ones have to work clandestinely. Almost all independent online media outlets are blocked inside Belarus (it is possible to read them only using Tor or VPN), and all independent newspapers stopped their existence in print. More and more media outlets and telegram channels are included into official list of ‘extremist’ materials (all anarchist websites are there for several years already), meaning that it is forbidden to cite them even in a private correspondence and especially in one’s social networks.
Authorities continued to close down NGOs in October. It seems that by the end of the year no independent NGOs will exist in the country – only such which closely cooperate with authorities.
Police officers continue to organize special operations, breaking into houses and apartments in search of protest symbols and detaining people at work; they conduct daily searches and interrogations.
Authorities continue to annul licenses of lawyers who dare to defend people in political trials.
At the Belarusian-Polish and Belarusian-Lithuanian border, a refugee crisis is ongoing since summer. Belarusian authorities let migrants from various Asian and African countries (a prominent country of origin is Iraq) to enter Belarus through official channels and then to cross Polish or Lithuanian border clandestinely (in the past, such migrants were stopped by Belarusian side in most cases). Polish and Lithuanian frontier-guards, assisted by Frontex agents and German police, practice massive push-backs (fast track illegal deportations), but then Belarusian frontier-guards push migrants back to Polish side. Both Polish and Belarusian frontier-guards brutally mistreat migrants, beating and robbing them, and leaving them in the cold forests and swamps without medical assistance and even food and water. Several deaths were already officially reported, and the general feeling is that fatalities and casualties are underreported. The situation reminds a refugee crisis on the border between Turkey and Greece in February and March 2020 (it seems that Lukashenka borrowed an idea from Erdogan).
What happens with the protest?
It seems that protests are completely over.
A strike was announced by a group of emigre shop-floor activists. The plan was to start the strike on 1 November. It had to be an ‘Italian’ strike (slowing down of work, work according to official norms, taking days off for health reasons etc).
It is hard to perceive how many people actually joined this strike. But, as really many people are ill right now (because of covid-19), at some smaller enterprises up to a half of workforce is away for health reasons.
Skipping over the updates about specific cases, their take on the big picture is:
Repression in general
During October, at least 95 more people were convicted in politically motivated criminal trials in Belarus.
As of late October, 831 persons were declared political prisoners by human rights organisations.
In late October, a joint statement was produced by a number of political initiatives and organisations, suggesting that criteria of recognition a person as a political prisoner should be applied more widely
(Dissidentby — Joint statement of the belarusian civil society on the political emergency in Belarus and the full number of political prisoners). According to estimations of authors of the statement, there were 1021 political prisoners and 287 more subjected to politically motivated persecution (e.g. people sentenced to restraint of freedom without assignment to correctional facility). ABC Belarus co-signed the statement, although with reservations and criticism (we suggest that criteria have to be even wider).
Human rights defenders and journalists are two groups severely affected by state repression. Authorities aim to wipe out all independent journalists away from the country, and to large extent they succeed. Many of the remaining ones have to work clandestinely. Almost all independent online media outlets are blocked inside Belarus (it is possible to read them only using Tor or VPN), and all independent newspapers stopped their existence in print. More and more media outlets and telegram channels are included into official list of ‘extremist’ materials (all anarchist websites are there for several years already), meaning that it is forbidden to cite them even in a private correspondence and especially in one’s social networks.
Authorities continued to close down NGOs in October. It seems that by the end of the year no independent NGOs will exist in the country – only such which closely cooperate with authorities.
Police officers continue to organize special operations, breaking into houses and apartments in search of protest symbols and detaining people at work; they conduct daily searches and interrogations.
Authorities continue to annul licenses of lawyers who dare to defend people in political trials.
At the Belarusian-Polish and Belarusian-Lithuanian border, a refugee crisis is ongoing since summer. Belarusian authorities let migrants from various Asian and African countries (a prominent country of origin is Iraq) to enter Belarus through official channels and then to cross Polish or Lithuanian border clandestinely (in the past, such migrants were stopped by Belarusian side in most cases). Polish and Lithuanian frontier-guards, assisted by Frontex agents and German police, practice massive push-backs (fast track illegal deportations), but then Belarusian frontier-guards push migrants back to Polish side. Both Polish and Belarusian frontier-guards brutally mistreat migrants, beating and robbing them, and leaving them in the cold forests and swamps without medical assistance and even food and water. Several deaths were already officially reported, and the general feeling is that fatalities and casualties are underreported. The situation reminds a refugee crisis on the border between Turkey and Greece in February and March 2020 (it seems that Lukashenka borrowed an idea from Erdogan).
What happens with the protest?
It seems that protests are completely over.
A strike was announced by a group of emigre shop-floor activists. The plan was to start the strike on 1 November. It had to be an ‘Italian’ strike (slowing down of work, work according to official norms, taking days off for health reasons etc).
It is hard to perceive how many people actually joined this strike. But, as really many people are ill right now (because of covid-19), at some smaller enterprises up to a half of workforce is away for health reasons.
not-bono-ever
meh
I can see little chance of the Poles letting them through, given the stance of their administration on the situation & Muslims in particular. It serves them well to keep pumping out the invasion rhetoric judging by the nationalist heavy parades of late in Warsaw. So what next ? the conditions will be progressively worse as the weather moves into full on winter and constant sub zero temps- it will be carnage in the forests. Most people will be skint / heavily indebted and unable to move to hotels or warm accommodation to see it out and there will be no humanitarian evacuation instigated by Belarus for the forseeable. eta, last time i was in that area it was about -10.in January
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Lukashenko has spoken twice with Merkel this week. An offer has been discussed for Germany to take the 2,000 at the border & for Belarus to fly the rest back to country of origin. Not clear how serious this is.
Poland’s Premier states that any deal cut with the regime will have no recognition in Poland. The PM of Estonia states that Lukashenko wanted recognition as head of state & lifting of sanctions, but that this was not discussed.
Meanwhile, weirdly, Putin calls for dialogue between Lukashenko & opposition in exile. This rather odd remark, made in a speech, seems to be a total U-turn on the previous Russian position. However it is suggested that these comments have two purposes: reminding the EU & Tikhanovskaya that no solution is possible without Putin’s involvement & approval; secondly, trolling the slippery dictator, who just will not stand down.
It is reported that Lukashenko agreed to his retirement & constitutional reform in September / October but is now rowing back from that, making constitutional reform all about him. He apparently intends to act as chair of the all-Belarusian People’s Assembly ( basically, the Communist Party Congress without the Communist Party) with a patsy president.
This will irritate Putin significantly but the stealthy absorption of Belarus in terms if FSB / KGB integration & military absorption of Belarusian territory into Russia’s western military district, is significant consolation.
The migrants at the fence are now in a ‘logistics centre’ in Grodno oblast, fate as yet unclear. At least they are in out of the cold.
Poland’s Premier states that any deal cut with the regime will have no recognition in Poland. The PM of Estonia states that Lukashenko wanted recognition as head of state & lifting of sanctions, but that this was not discussed.
Meanwhile, weirdly, Putin calls for dialogue between Lukashenko & opposition in exile. This rather odd remark, made in a speech, seems to be a total U-turn on the previous Russian position. However it is suggested that these comments have two purposes: reminding the EU & Tikhanovskaya that no solution is possible without Putin’s involvement & approval; secondly, trolling the slippery dictator, who just will not stand down.
It is reported that Lukashenko agreed to his retirement & constitutional reform in September / October but is now rowing back from that, making constitutional reform all about him. He apparently intends to act as chair of the all-Belarusian People’s Assembly ( basically, the Communist Party Congress without the Communist Party) with a patsy president.
This will irritate Putin significantly but the stealthy absorption of Belarus in terms if FSB / KGB integration & military absorption of Belarusian territory into Russia’s western military district, is significant consolation.
The migrants at the fence are now in a ‘logistics centre’ in Grodno oblast, fate as yet unclear. At least they are in out of the cold.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Lukashenko defiant on the BBC which has taken quite a lot of stick from opposition minded folk for giving him airtime at all, and referring to him as the "president":
He wants to press Germany to take the 2000 people currently holed up in the "logistics centre" a few hundred metres from the border. If Germany refuses, as seems likely, they'll be kept in Belarus as a bargaining chip.
He wants to press Germany to take the 2000 people currently holed up in the "logistics centre" a few hundred metres from the border. If Germany refuses, as seems likely, they'll be kept in Belarus as a bargaining chip.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Short statement from Workers' Initiative, radical Polish union involved in organising at Amazon warehouses and elsewhere:
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
In Belarus news this week:
- the border attempt to weaponsie migrants has fizzled out and generally failed totally in its aims of dividing the EU, extorting money from them, or exposing border weaknesses. Thousands of migrants are still stuck in Belarus in miserable conditions, pending return or re-weaponisation.
-Lukashenko appeared in a ludicrous uniform at a meeting of the general staff and muttered darkly about "if the West provokes us into war in Ukraine, Belarus will not be on the sidelines. And I think you know whose side we will be on"
-Lukashenko has apparently "requested" the presence of Russian tactical nukes on Belarusian soil again. Well isn't that nice.
-To lighten the mood, the head of the Belarusian FA, Colonel Bazanov, was today detained along with his wife in the Czech Republic. The pair had travelled to watch an international of the womens' football team but were detained owing to 1. not having an EU entry visa 2. violating Covid protocols. So, a nice couple of nights ahead in a Czech jail for the hapless galoot.
Number of political prisoners currently nudging 900 at this rate.
- the border attempt to weaponsie migrants has fizzled out and generally failed totally in its aims of dividing the EU, extorting money from them, or exposing border weaknesses. Thousands of migrants are still stuck in Belarus in miserable conditions, pending return or re-weaponisation.
-Lukashenko appeared in a ludicrous uniform at a meeting of the general staff and muttered darkly about "if the West provokes us into war in Ukraine, Belarus will not be on the sidelines. And I think you know whose side we will be on"
-Lukashenko has apparently "requested" the presence of Russian tactical nukes on Belarusian soil again. Well isn't that nice.
-To lighten the mood, the head of the Belarusian FA, Colonel Bazanov, was today detained along with his wife in the Czech Republic. The pair had travelled to watch an international of the womens' football team but were detained owing to 1. not having an EU entry visa 2. violating Covid protocols. So, a nice couple of nights ahead in a Czech jail for the hapless galoot.
Number of political prisoners currently nudging 900 at this rate.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
A recently-translated statement from Mikola Dziadok, who just got a five-year sentence:
In general, the verdict did not cause me much emotion. I remembered that when I was tried the first time in 2011 and the second time in 2015, I was very nervous. That wasn’t the case now. I was ready to get both a stricter and a softer sentence. I didn’t care much whether they would sentence me to 5, 7 or 10 years. I am trying to get into a mindset and train myself to look at it on a completely different level. Then you realize that your sentence is just an episode of a colossal historical process. I try not to separate my fate from that of my country and the anarchist movement. And when you think about it like that, everything is seen in a completely different light. Any sentence doesn’t seem so daunting anymore.
There is a huge number of random people behind bars right now who are sympathisers of the movement for change, who weren’t planning to go to prison for a comment and stepping on a roadway once. Frankly, these are the people I sympathise with the most and I am not surprised that many of them give up, succumb to pessimism and panic. Well, all those who believe the fight for a better world is their vocation just need to be patient and accept what is happening as a logical step in their lives.
I think it’s worth taking inspiration from examples from the past, but also struggles in other authoritarian countries such as Iran, Venezuela and Myanmar. And personally, I try never to forget that prison is an ideal place to work on yourself. Here you can freely explore yourself and your psyche, get to know people you would never get to know on the outside. This is what I try to do: strengthen, educate myself and hone my willpower every day. Then even being in isolation makes sense.
In general, the verdict did not cause me much emotion. I remembered that when I was tried the first time in 2011 and the second time in 2015, I was very nervous. That wasn’t the case now. I was ready to get both a stricter and a softer sentence. I didn’t care much whether they would sentence me to 5, 7 or 10 years. I am trying to get into a mindset and train myself to look at it on a completely different level. Then you realize that your sentence is just an episode of a colossal historical process. I try not to separate my fate from that of my country and the anarchist movement. And when you think about it like that, everything is seen in a completely different light. Any sentence doesn’t seem so daunting anymore.
There is a huge number of random people behind bars right now who are sympathisers of the movement for change, who weren’t planning to go to prison for a comment and stepping on a roadway once. Frankly, these are the people I sympathise with the most and I am not surprised that many of them give up, succumb to pessimism and panic. Well, all those who believe the fight for a better world is their vocation just need to be patient and accept what is happening as a logical step in their lives.
I think it’s worth taking inspiration from examples from the past, but also struggles in other authoritarian countries such as Iran, Venezuela and Myanmar. And personally, I try never to forget that prison is an ideal place to work on yourself. Here you can freely explore yourself and your psyche, get to know people you would never get to know on the outside. This is what I try to do: strengthen, educate myself and hone my willpower every day. Then even being in isolation makes sense.
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