Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

[steeplejack]

i headtly recommend this interview between Shushkevich & Sergei Tikhanovsky, Svetlana’s blogger husband currently incarcerated for ever and a day on ludicrous charges.

 

[Dystopiary]

Lukashenka's signed the amendment to allow the death penalty for "attempted terrorism." Dread to think how many so-called "crimes" could be covered by this.

Also today he banned the book 1984 by George Orwell. Surprised he hadn't done it sooner.

 

[RD2003]

Lukashenka's signed the amendment to allow the death penalty for "attempted terrorism." Dread to think how many so-called "crimes" could be covered by this.

Also today he banned the book 1984 by George Orwell. Surprised he hadn't done it sooner.

Better to ban 'A Clergyman's Daughter.' Orwell's worst novel by a mile.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Better to ban 'A Clergyman's Daughter.' Orwell's worst novel by a mile.

Some of his more well heard of works could be viewed as instruction manuals for future autocratics. I imagine that's the real reason.

 

[Dogsauce]

The Kyiv Independent news site are now doing a weekly Belarus round-up newsletter, the first one is here:

Belarus Weekly: With troops at the border, broadened use of death penalty, and attacks on books and culture, Belarus cements its dystopian image

Unable to overcome a domestic political crisis in the country caused by the fraudulent 2020 presidential elections, the regime of Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko turned his country of 9.5 million people into a grim place. Furthermore, Lukashenko’s regime, held afloat by Russian President...

kyivindependent.com

 

[steeplejack]

Lukashenko has signed an order for the creation of a "People's Militia" initially based around the 2,000 employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, and, hilariously, the national fisherman's and hunter's society.

The Militias are an attempt to revive the USSR partisan units during WW2 but three key differences;

• Belarus is not occupied by Nazis and is not at war, rather hosting the armed forces of a belligerent neighbour
• Everyone in these groups / proposed groups is likely too old and not very motivated
• no one in their right mind will "volunteer" for such groups.

Interesting, though. Lukashenko studying Russia's failures closely, and perhaps preparing for an armed crack at his own power structures.

 

[hitmouse]

Important fundraiser going on:
No one will be left alone

It's been almost two years since the 2020 protests in Belarus. The anarchist movement, just like the rest of activists and jounalists, has faced the biggest crackdown ever. Many activists had to leave the country, others got behind bars. ABC-Belarus continues its activity and needs support more than ever. At the moment, there are about 30 imprisoned anarchists and antifascists in Belarus and the number keeps growing.

We are in the middle of a big trial with 10 defendants that would probably last for the whole summer. Read more about the case here - Belarusian anarchists are persecuted for creating international criminal organisation – Anarchist Black Cross Belarus Every week just this case alone costs us 3000 euros. Without your help, we won't be able to provide support in this trial for long, meaning that the activists will lose their opportunity to get legal aid. Other comrades need lawyer's visits, food parcels, appeals - all this requires more money than we are able to gather.

Any donations are more than welcome! Please share this call with your comrades and groups, organize fundraising events for us and spread the word about Belarusian imprisoned anarchists.

At the time of publication of this appeal, more than 2,000 prisoners of the 2020 uprising are in the prisons of the Lukashenko regime. Among them are at least 30 anarchists and antifascists who have been subjected to political repression, torture and imprisonment because of their political activism. Many comrades were forced to leave Belarus to avoid heavy prison sentences and violence from the regime.

Two years after the start of the protests, the political trials continue. A month ago four anarchists were sentenced to prison terms of 4.5 to 5 years in the "Pramen case"[1]. A few weeks ago, a trial began in the case of the so-called "international criminal organization of anarchists," which is a product of the imagination of the political police. In reality, the case was cooked up for the sole purpose of destroying the anarchist movement. There are 10 people on the bench, and the trial is being held behind closed doors.

Several more people are awaiting trial, including Kristina Cherenkova, Anna Pyshnik and Oleg Avdeyenko.

Over the past year, ABC-Belarus has spent tens of thousands of euros on lawyers, prison parcels and assistance to prisoners' families. All this support was made possible primarily through international solidarity - we received all the donations from our comrades.

The war in Ukraine affected the amount of support for Belarusian prisoners. In the international arena, it has become a priority to support those who fight against Putin's regime. And we believe this is the right thing to do. But the resistance against Putin's and Lukashenko's regime continues, including in prisons in Belarus. We believe that prisoners should not be abandoned even in such difficult moments.

Our funds are running out, and we are forced once again to start a crowdfunding campaign - only with your support we will be able to continue to help our comrades.

Your money will be used for the following:

* Paying lawyers (at the moment we spend about 3000 euros a week for lawyers in the international anarchist criminal organization case alone)

* Paying for parcels to prisoners - the food in prisons is very bad, and without food parcels from the outside the repressed can't eat properly.

This is the minimum that will be covered if crowdfunding is successful. If more money is raised, however, we will be able to help the families of incarcerated comrades and cover the additional cost of supporting prisoners in prison.

Until everyone is free.

Anarchist Black Cross Belarus.

1: An anarchist collective from Belarus, recognized by the Belarusian authorities as an extremist formation. The collective's website is pramen.io

 

[hitmouse]

And, on a related note:

Elephant in the room # 40 – No one will be left alone – prisoner solidarity in Belarus – AND

a-dresden.org

ABC Belarus is calling urgently for donations to continue their support of the anarchist and antifascist prisoners in Belarus. Since the uprising in 2020 the repression keeps going and right now there are 30 Antifascists and Anarchists imprisoned. The number is growing. In this interview a member of the solidarity campaign is explaining the recent situation in Belarus in general, as well as the situation of imprisoned people, how the repression is continuing and why so much money is needed.

 

[Dystopiary]

And, on a related note:

Elephant in the room # 40 – No one will be left alone – prisoner solidarity in Belarus – AND

a-dresden.org

Edit - never mind, seems to be working again now.

 

[hitmouse]

Huh, dunno what happened there but glad if it's fixed.

 

[Dystopiary]

Cyber Partisans of Belarus have revealed that Lukashenka's regime have been wire-tapping countries' embassies and consulates including Russia.
So much for his loyalty to Putin.

Christo Grovez on twitter

Thread by Cyber Partisans including video of recordings, with English subtitles:

Thread by @cpartisans on Thread Reader App

 

[hitmouse]

Important fundraiser going on:
No one will be left alone

This fundraiser needs another 15K in the next nine hours to meet their target, not looking good.

 

[hitmouse]

Crossposting:
The Belarus ABC fundraiser didn't hit their target, and it was running on one of those sites where you have to hit your target to get anything, so they'll be in a bit of a shit situation at the moment. If anyone wants to donate directly to them, you can do it here:

Get your very own PayPal.Me link

Post it. Text it. Tag it. Share it. Shout it. And let your friends pay you back in a tap or two. Grab your PayPal.Me link today.

www.paypal.com

They could really use the money right now, going through a big trial with ten defendants.
Here's their most recent round-up: News from Lukashenko’s prison cells, May 2022 – Anarchist Black Cross Belarus
Nothing particularly surprising, but as scummy as you'd expect:

The letters addressed to Mikalai Dziadok are demonstratively destroyed in front of him, the whole process is video-recorded. Mikalai believes that the prison guards hope to piss him off and provoke him into fighting in order to put him in the punishment cell once again. This situation has not changed for months.

 

[Dystopiary]

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has strongly condemned the Belarusian government over the diversion of Ryanair flight FR4978. The ICAO has updated an earlier report from January due to "new information and materials." It's described Belarus's actions as "unlawful interference." The report will be forwarded to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

As discussed upthread, on 23 May 2021, the plane, heading for Vilnius, Lithuania, was diverted to Minsk on Belarusian authorities' instructions, claiming a bomb threat, which the ICAO has found to be false. On landing, Belarusian opposition activist Roman Protasevich and his Russian girlfriend, Sofia Sapega, were detained. In May this year, following a secret trial, Sapega was sentenced to six years in prison for "inciting social hatred."

ICAO Council condemns Belarus over 2021 Ryanair flight bomb threat and diversion

The dictator Lukashenka has desribed the report as a "second-rate spy novel."

The full report is available in six languages here: Ryanair Flight FR4978

 

[steeplejack]

Just an ordinary day on Belarusian media. An increasingly irrelevant & sidelined Lukashenko chops wood alongside a pet businessman as a way of staving off Europe freezing this winter.

 

[Dystopiary]

Just an ordinary day on Belarusian media. An increasingly irrelevant & sidelined Lukashenko chops wood alongside a pet businessman as a way of staving off Europe freezing this winter.

His gilet put me in mind of the North Korean flag.

 

[steeplejack]

Lukashenko has made a genius move in terms of skyrocketing prices by, er, banning price rises in Belarus.

Truly, a towering economic genius.

 

[SysOut]

Lukashenko has made a genius move in terms of skyrocketing prices by, er, banning price rises in Belarus.

Truly, a towering economic genius.

Price controls were introduced for the transition from Belgian francs to euros and it worked well. It lasted about lasted about 12 months. Other countries, eg Italy, who didn't, saw sky rocketing prices.
Labour also introduced price controls, under Wilson, I believe, but I don't remember the details.

 

[steeplejack]

None of which were isloated, flailing, zombie-Soviet command and control economies, run by a gerontocracy, requiring regular bailouts from paymaster Russia (Lukashenko just pocketed $1.5 billion in loans from Russia enabling him to ban price rises).

Banning price rises across the economy doesn't address the structural problems Belarus faces- heavy dependency on Russia for everything, sanctions and international isolation, oldschool industries producing many things no one really wants, with very few exceptions.

You're not really comparing like with like here.

 

[SysOut]

None of which were isloated, flailing, zombie-Soviet command and control economies, run by a gerontocracy, requiring regular bailouts from paymaster Russia (Lukashenko just pocketed $1.5 billion in loans from Russia enabling him to ban price rises).

Banning price rises across the economy doesn't address the structural problems Belarus faces- heavy dependency on Russia for everything, sanctions and international isolation, oldschool industries producing many things no one really wants, with very few exceptions.

You're not really comparing like with like here.

True. But the twitter message wasn't doing that either.
It just seems to say that no price controls work. Anywhere. Anytime.
What this has to do with USSR, btw, escapes me.
The whole criticism seems to be because it is Lukashenko doing it.

Dumb down war propaganda.

You can get the same from the other side - no different.
Daily Mail/RT stuff.

 

[steeplejack]

True. But the twitter message wasn't doing that either.
It just seems to say that no price controls work. Anywhere. Anytime.
What this has to do with USSR, btw, escapes me.
The whole criticism seems to be because it is Lukashenko doing it.

Dumb down war propaganda.

You can get the same from the other side - no different.
Daily Mail/RT stuff.

Er, it’s called a joke at a dictator’s expense



(PS: you are aware that Belarus used to be part of the USSR and Soviet organisational & planning methods still dominate the economy there, right?)

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Posted this on another thread but it’s so good its worth sharing twice.

 

[steeplejack]

There are now nearly 1400 political prisoners in Belarus. Yesterday journalists from a closed down independent agency received sentences of 4-14 years for, er, doing their job.

Behind the jokes about price rise bans et al, Belarusian civil society and all independent organisations have more or less ceased to exist domestically. There has been an extraordinary drain of people to Poland, Lithuania and further afield since summer 2020.

 

[Dystopiary]

Belarusian human rights activist Ales Bialiatski, founder of Viasna, has been announced joint winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. (Personally I think the NPP is iffy as heck but) could help to raise awareness of the situation in Belarus. Like so many others, he's currently in jail.

 

[steeplejack]

Lukashenko meets with his security council this morning, with wild rumours circulating that a Belarusian land attack will begin in the next week. Hence the blowing of bridges this morning (the roads leading into Ukraine from Belarus have been heavily mined already by the Ukrainians).

Politically it's totally insane from Lukashenko's point of view but I guess the calculation is that with the Russian military present in such numbers in the country, now, that deep unpopularity can be shrugged off. He's had a bit of practice after all in maintaining power without legitimacy.

From the Russian POV the Belarusian army is expendable and pish but creates a diversion from the relentless Ukrainian sweep south and south east. If belarus does invade another massacre looms, tragically.

 

[steeplejack]

mad, mad bastard.

 

[steeplejack]

Theories on the morning's developments:

1. Lukashenko really is mad enough to be contemplating invasion
2. It's a PR / propaganda exercise to giove the Ukrainian army pause for thought as they push east and south;
3. Most worryingly- it's quiet annexation as the Belarusian armed forces are stealthily diluted / later absorbed by those of the RF.

Yes some will say that Belarus has been annexed in all but name anyway. The stealthy merger of armed forces whilst everyone rightly has their eyes focused on the awful tragedy unfolding across Ukraine today would be very significant indeed.

 

[steeplejack]

Strong evidence that Lukashenko already handing over T-72s kept in reserve to the Russian army:

 

[Dystopiary]

WTF?



Hanna Liubakova

 

[steeplejack]

just echoing Lukashenko's verbal bowel movements this morning, when he referenced the Poles begging the Americans for nukes to be stationed on Polish soil, re-arming with NATO weapons, and able to strike at a few hours notice.

in the parallel reality the Belarusian dictator lives in, anyway.