Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?

[kebabking]

A very basic point that may become 'a thing' in the game of who, and representing what, happens next, is that when the elections were being nobbled and the the opposition were being chased off into exile or prison, Lukashenko looked like a good bet because he was Putin's creature, and Putin was a winner.

Well, Putin no longer looks like a winner - being his mate/creature doesn't look like being a solid bet. There's not - imv - going to a hurtling to the exits, but some of the power structures might be looking for a candidate who can see which way the wind is blowing, and perhaps adjust Belarus's position as the situation develops - staying close to Putin if it goes well, moving away if it starts to go really badly.

It's going to be interesting to watch.

 

[Dystopiary]

Today, the 21st of May is the Day of the Political Prisoner in Belarus.

May 21 is the Day of the Political prisoner in Belarus: show your solidarity! Updated with events schedule

View attachment 374544

Hanna Liubakova on twitter

Washington post article on Viktar Babaryka and political detention in Belarus:

As of May 18, Viasna has identified 1,497 political prisoners in Belarus,* and the true total is likely higher. In the past, it was at least possible for lawyers and human rights defenders in Belarus to track their whereabouts. Now the regime appears to be using ever-more repressive tactics like those of North Korea, where prisoners are forcibly disappeared for months or years. Meanwhile, Mr. Lukashenko has also kept out of public view in recent weeks, apparently seriously ill.

The entire world should demand that the dictator answer: Where is Viktor Babariko? Show us he is alive. What has become of the others? Belarus’s political prisoners cannot be allowed to vanish.

*Today Viasna show that figure has already gone up to 1,525. Politzek put the number at 1,755. People are imprisoned for political reasons daily.

I'm also linking again here to Anarchist Black Cross Belarus, who despite all the difficulties they face, do their best to support Anarchists and Anti-fascists repressed by the regime:

Anarchist Black Cross Belarus – Anarchism, Belarus, ABC, Anarchist Black Cross, Solidarity, Repressions

 

[steeplejack]

Yeep the events around the world were busy yesterday and had quite a lot of traction which was great to see. The problem is that even if we lived in a time where a decade's worth of news didn't happen every six months, "cut through" for a cause which is very obscure for most people here, is difficult to achive. You see it in most social media comments- many ignorant folk think Lukashenko is in charge because of the apathy of the Belarusian population, and that they are signed up to the war on Ukraine- the opposite being true in both cases.

The old bastard has unfortunately recovered from whatever trouble he had and has a meeting with Putin scheduled for the 24th. Apparently these won't be hugely friendly talks- Lukashenko has trailed that he intends to raise "issues" which "shouldn't be happening in our relations".

The regime- three years after the brutal repressions of 2020 and seventeen years after the first serious organised attempt against the dictatorship, the Jeans revolution of 2006- clings on.

Still.

 

[steeplejack]

Roman Proteasevich “pardoned” by the dictatorship today days into an 8-year term. The propaganda machine still uses him.

His girlfriend Sofya Sapega remains behind bars, serving 6 years.

 

[Dystopiary]

It's happened. Shoigu met his Belarusian counterpart in Minsk today and they've signed the go-ahead for storing nuclear weapons in Belarus.





Belarusian Hajun Project on twitter



Hanna Liubakova on twitter

 

[steeplejack]

Moreover, the Russians, according to Shoigu, will have complete control over their deployment and don't give a shit what Lukashenko says / thinks about it. This is in direct contradicton to what the dictator said in March, the Belarus would control weapons stored on it's territory.

Nope.

 

[Dystopiary]

Moreover, the Russians, according to Shoigu, will have complete control over their deployment and don't give a shit what Lukashenko says / thinks about it. This is in direct contradicton to what the dictator said in March, the Belarus would control weapons stored on it's territory.

Nope.

When the plonker sold his soul to the Kremlin, I wonder if he really thought they wouldn't treat him as disposable.

 

[Rob Ray]

I can't imagine he was unaware that his choice during the uprising was basically between puppet strings or a noose.

 

[steeplejack]

Lukashenko's recent illness was apparently an adenovirus. Unfortunately he seems recovered fully. He said smugly yesterday that news of his demise was greatly exaggerated and that "You'll have to suiffer many more years with me".

 

[steeplejack]

^^ seems optimistic

Lukashenko ‘in hospital in Moscow’ with non-transportable illness.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Again?

 

[steeplejack]

When the KGB eliminated Belarusian First Secretary Pyotr Masherov in 1980 at Brezhnev’s behest, they chose the much quicker and frankly less undignified method of a potato truck.

 

[steeplejack]

Anyway Tsepkalo's tweet was bullshit / hysterical nonsense- Lukashenko is in meetings as normal this morning.

 

[teqniq]

Dark comedic interlude:

 

[Dystopiary]

part of a thread:



Hanna Liubakova on twitter

 

[Dystopiary]

Political prisoner and artist Ales Pushkin has died in custody, aged 57.

Aled [sic] Pushkin was first detained for the first time in 1988 for participating in a rally. In 1999, Pushkin performed his most famous act, “Manure for the President”. He brought a wheelbarrow full of manure to Lukashenka’s administration, dumped it out, put Lukashenka’s portrait on top, and impaled it with a pitchfork. Since then, many performances, arrests, and days behind bars have occurred. Ales Pushkin remained true to himself and continued to follow his challenging path. The artist considered the painting of a church in the small village of Babry to be his life’s work.

Pushkin died in intensive care in unclear circumstances. His death became known yesterday (July 11, 2023).

Political prisoner and artist Ales Pushkin dies in prison at 57

Further info here, including a statement from the human rights community of Belarus:

Human rights community of Belarus joint statement on the death in custody of the artist Ales Pushkin

 

[Dystopiary]

The head of Belarusian Red Cross is supportive of the regime and that of the Kremlin, including its war against Ukrainians.


transcript of tweet:

#Belarus Dzmitry Shautsou, the head of the Belarusian Red Cross, wears a sweater with the Z symbol. This is how he looked during a trip to Donbas, clearly supporting Russian aggression. I am wondering what @ICRC and @ifrc think about such representation of their organisation.

Hanna Liubakova on twitter (12:07 PM Jul 13, 2023)


Belarus Red Cross participated in the rigging of the 2020 elections:

Беларусы свету пратэстуюць супраць выкарыстання Беларускага таварыства чырвонага крыжа ў палітычных мэтах (from 2021, in Belarusian; translation in spoiler below):

Spoiler: translated text from Nasha Niva

Belarusians around the world are protesting against the use of the Belarusian Red Cross Society for political purposesBelarusians of the world started a protest campaign against the use of the Belarusian Red Cross Society for political purposes. The social media hashtag for this campaign is #TyrannyPoisonsRedCross.

In particular, a well-known writer of Belarusian origin, Sasha Filippenko, addressed the International Red Cross with an emotional appeal.

It all started with the fact that analysts drew attention to the participation of 2,996 representatives of the Red Cross in election commissions in those areas where observers suspected mass falsification. Moreover, this is not the first time: 2,532 of the members of the commissions have already participated in election committees in previous elections. At the same time acting Chairman of the presidium of the organization — Minister of Health Pinevich.

In addition, attention was drawn to the fact that the Red Cross did not help more than 33,000 people detained in Belarus for political reasons since the summer of 2020.

After mass appeals from the diaspora, the National Anti-Crisis Administration joined the case. It addressed the International Committee of the Red Cross with three requests:

1. review the attached materials on the violation by the BTCK of the principles of neutrality and independence, which are declared by the international movement of the Red Cross and Red Crescent;

2. to eliminate the financial support of BTCK and send funds directly to people in need;

3. to suspend the membership of the BTCC in the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, as well as the international movement of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, until the organization proves its compliance with the principles of the movement."

 

[steeplejack]

Political prisoner and artist Ales Pushkin has died in custody, aged 57.



Pushkin died in intensive care in unclear circumstances. His death became known yesterday (June 11, 2023).

Political prisoner and artist Ales Pushkin dies in prison at 57

Further info here, including a statement from the human rights community of Belarus:

Human rights community of Belarus joint statement on the death in custody of the artist Ales Pushkin

I’m devastated by Pushkin’s death- one of my heroes in contemporary art.

He had a perforated ulcer & was brought to hospital with acute peritonitis & multiple organ failure. His heart stopped during the operation to try & save him. But the doctors had no chance, he was half dead when they brought him in.

Prisoners who were with him in the colony say he was simply too decent to be there and was badly treated, being denied food other than the worst slops and denied medical treatment. They ignored his declining status and he lost 20kgs in his last weeks. He must have died a slow & agonising death.

Cold hatred for those that did this, and the hope one day that they endure the same demise.

Pushkin was buried in his home village of Bobr today. At least they can’t torture & persecute him further.

RIP.

 

[Dystopiary]

Hajun Project have reported on the death of another political prisoner.

from their twitter account:

Novy Chas: a prisoner died in Okrestsina temporary detention center in early June. Sources of Novy Chas media say that the main causes of death of “political” inmates are conditions of detention and “specifics of medical care there.”

It’s reported that the man who died in the detention center was Andrei Makarevich. According to sources of the media, he was first detained for theft, later they found some reposts in his phone and he was transferred to a cell “for the political ones.”

It’s known that the man had asthma and needed an inhaler, which he was not always given. The man was getting worse due to detention conditions.

According to the sources of Novy Chas, one morning he got up, went to wash his hands and just fell down near the sink. The ambulance arrived, but the man couldn’t be saved.

 

[Dystopiary]

It's horrific steeplejack. I hope so much it comes crashing down on them soon.

 

[steeplejack]

First evidence that at least some Wagnerites came to Belarus & heading for Osipovichy. Reported by zerkalo / Belarusian Hajun project.

Ukrainian intelligence assess that Wagner has largely withdrawn from Ukrainian territory. Lots of guff about Wagner ‘training and sharing experiences’ with Belarusian army on official state media.

 

[The39thStep]

View attachment 383268

First evidence that at least some Wagnerites came to Belarus & heading for Osipovichy. Reported by zerkalo / Belarusian Hajun project.

Ukrainian intelligence assess that Wagner has largely withdrawn from Ukrainian territory. Lots of guff about Wagner ‘training and sharing experiences’ with Belarusian army on official state media.

It was on CNN Portugal when I was out having a coffee this morning

 

[steeplejack]

Fairly stomach-churning report in this morning's Torygraph showing how Lukashenko's regime is complict in the abduction and 're-settlement' of Ukrainian children

https://www.tele graph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/17/russia-abducting-ukrainian-children-via-belarus/ (link to far-right site broken)

 

[Dystopiary]

Fairly stomach-churning report in this morning's Torygraph showing how Lukashenko's regime is complict in the abduction and 're-settlement' of Ukrainian children

https://www.tele graph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/17/russia-abducting-ukrainian-children-via-belarus/ (link to far-right site broken)

link archived at 12ft.io

 

[Dystopiary]

This is really bad news for Belarusians living abroad: new passports will no longer be issued for them. The only way to get a new Belarusian passport would be to go back to Belarus, which would put many in danger, and would certainly restrict people's freedom, since Belarus is an oppressive dictatorship. Don't forget, that's why many left.

These changes are being interpreted as a fresh escalation in Lukashenka’s campaign against Belarusians who left the country following the mass pro-democracy protests of 2020. Thousands fled Belarus in late 2020 and sought refuge elsewhere in Europe after suffering arrest or facing criminal charges for their involvement in a nationwide protest movement that aimed to overturn a rigged presidential election and bring 26 years of increasingly dictatorial rule to an end. Many of the current exile community also experienced human rights abuses while in custody including torture.


The cancellation of consular services now places exiled Belarusians in a precarious position. Unless they return to Belarus to renew expired passports, they could find themselves without their primary identification document and unable to access a wide range of essential services in their current countries of residence. However, returning to Belarus could result in arrest and prosecution in connection with their earlier involvement in anti-regime protects.

Belarus dictator weaponizes passports in new attack on exiled opposition

 

[hitmouse]

Music video using artwork from Belarusian and Russian political prisoners:

 

[steeplejack]

I've stopped my updates as the protest movement / legitimate government is now fully isolated, squabbling and irrelevant abroad. Tikhanovskaya may well still be greeted warmly in Brussels or Washington but she is a fading and irrelevant memory with no traction whatever within contemporary Belarus. The opposition to Lukashenko seems to be being held in sullen and fearful stasis under a crust of public complicity. Well known professional athletes are still releasing "repentance videos" for backing the anti-Lukashenko movement in 2020.

Popping in to add two recent articles of interest:

Is Belarus the Real Beneficiary of Putin's War? (Foreign Policy) which argues that the current stalemate in Ukraine is the best outcome for the devilishly fortunate dictatorship; that a decisive victory either way will spell likely disaster for the Lukashenko regime. Decisive victory, of course, looks pretty unlikely in the medium term.

Depressingly, the jailings and persecutions don't stop. Three members of the Tor rock band have been jailed for 7.5-9 years in Gomel this week for "extremist activity" during the protests. Most of the leading lights of Belarusian civil society are now in jail or fled into exile abroad. It's an inverted rural idiocracy where the worst people are in power and those capable of making the country a better and more interesting place suffer.

It was difficult to get Belarus' complexities in the papers after the revolt petered out in 2020/21 and with the current appalling tragedies unfolding in Palestine, this struggle has been all but forgotten by those not directly affected or involved.

There are currently 1,469 political prisoners in Belarus, as of today, everyone from anarchists serving mind-bendingly long terms to people who may or may not have subscribed to what the government terms "extremist" channels on telegram.

 

[Nikkormat]

Thanks for the update steeplejack. Shitty situation.

 

[steeplejack]

Local / regional elections are coming and the regime, having nearly been toppled in 2020, is not fucking about this time, as Lukashenko recently informed a careful selection of children and "youth activists". Presidential elections are coming next year and the old man will again stand, apparently planning to run a campaign "in North Korean style". The article also illustrates well the bind that an increasingly irrelevant opposition finds itself in:

"Even if we were to imagine the unthinkable scenario where Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a former “housewife” who unexpectedly rose to become a presidential candidate, suddenly emerges out of nowhere to fight against ready-to-fight teams and protesters outraged by the rigged elections are taking over the palace – what happens next? With almost complete certainty, after a few moments, paratroopers from Pskov would land in Minsk, and the Rosgvardia would enter from Smolensk. Tanks would follow them closely, and the protest would be violently suppressed."

Mass searches and shakedowns this week in Minsk on persons associated with members of Tikhanovskaya's National Co-Ordinating Council, with property confiscation underway. Election to this body are scheduied for the same time as the sham regime "elections" hence the harsh counter-measures by the regime.

This Q&A with Artyom Shraibman is also insightful in terms of the recent CSTO meeting hosted in Minsk and tensions within that organisation, as well as potential future scenarios that may unfold in Belarus.

 

[Dystopiary]

Another political prisoner has died in Belarus. His name was Ihar Lednik.

As it became known on February 20, 2024, 63-year-old political prisoner Ihar Lednik died in the Minsk regional hospital. He was brought there from the Babrujsk colony, where he was serving his sentence. Doctors tried to resuscitate him, but to no avail.

Ihar Lednik had a heart disease as well as other chronic diseases, his health had deteriorated in the prison colony, and he underwent gastrointestinal surgery.

The official cause of Mr Lednik's death is not known with certainty.

The penitentiary system has once again shown how completely opaque and closed it is for society, even in matters of life and death. Every day, thousands of prisoners in Belarusian prisons suffer from violations of the right to life and the right to health [...] Human rights defenders constantly report correctional institutions lacking proper medical examination, appropriate conditions and equipment, qualified medical personnel, as well as regular failure to provide medical care. Moreover, keeping some political prisoners in incommunicado conditions (without contact with relatives and lawyers) raises doubts about their satisfactory health status.

As the article states, Mr Lednik's death is the fifth recent death of a political prisoner in Belarusian correctional institutions. For instance:

• In May 2021, political prisoner Vitold Ashurak died in correctional colony No. 17 in Škloŭ, Mahilioŭ region;
• In May 2023, political prisoner Mikalai Klimovich died in the Vitsba colony;
• In July 2023, artist Ales Pushkin died in the Hrodna emergency hospital. He was brought to the hospital from prison No. 1 in Hrodna;
• In January 2024, political prisoner Vadzim Khrasko died in the Vitsba correctional colon

Statement of the Belarusian human rights community on the death of political prisoner Ihar Lednik