Streathamite
ideological dogmatist
Thanks for the updates, this is genuinely fascinating. Like you, I'm not going to put much faith in the EU doing much to help
Belarus : is the end coming for Lukashenko?
- Thread starter steeplejack
- Start date
The people of Belarus are taking a bloody long time to overthrow Lukashenko. They'd better get a bloody move on frankly. How much longer are they just gonna keep protesting?
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
Until they convince the army to turn. Or they’ll die.
I've just become impatient with the whole thing to be honest. But yeah, good idea to get the military on side ofcourse.
I'd imagine that with a regime/society like that of Belarus, the military are very much rewarded for their service to the government.
Have to be honest though, seems to me that if they haven't got rid of Lukashenko by now, they are not going to. And even if they managed to win over some of the army, doesn't mean they'd win over all of them. Such a situation could lead to a protracted civil war. I hope that doesn't happen though.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Corrupt as fuck, personality cult, and a deliberate policy of tying the people and structures of the military and security forces to the regime.
It's not an agnostic body just waiting to see which way the wind blows and whether one side or the other goes - subjectively - too far, it's a body with a large number of 'true believers' with the rest tied to the fate of the regime through crime and corruption.
There is, of course, always a limit, but no one knows where that limit is, or who will hit it first - the traditional reading is that the military will fold first with the interior ministry troops remaining loyal, but the interior ministry troops may decide that they have the most to lose if the military swap sides, so they may swap sides first and attempt to cover their grotty little secrets in the flag of the Glorious Revolution Against the Hated Oppressor...
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
'Treason doth never prosper, what's the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason.'
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
i.e Kolesnikova’s still detained.
As for those who are chafing that this is just taking too long and, poor dear, you’re getting bored, the reason for the stalemate is simple.
Lukashenko will not leave except by a violent death, he’s made that very clear.
The protestors are determined to force him out but refuse to use violence. They’ll want him tried.
Belarusian people are very patient and determined so this is not going to happen quickly. The only reason it will happen quickly is if V.V.Putin decides it’s too costly to prop Luka up and making too much unwelcome noise, and so offers up a ‘democratic’ candidate approved by him.
Fantasies that the army will turn remain just that. This isn’t Latin America. The army and security services remain firmly on the regime’s side as that regime pays them well and gives them impunity.Regime change opens up a whole unpleasant world of truth commissions, fines, jail, unemployment, disbanding of OMON / KGB.
So, y’know, if you’ve other browser tabs open that are more interesting....
As for those who are chafing that this is just taking too long and, poor dear, you’re getting bored, the reason for the stalemate is simple.
Lukashenko will not leave except by a violent death, he’s made that very clear.
The protestors are determined to force him out but refuse to use violence. They’ll want him tried.
Belarusian people are very patient and determined so this is not going to happen quickly. The only reason it will happen quickly is if V.V.Putin decides it’s too costly to prop Luka up and making too much unwelcome noise, and so offers up a ‘democratic’ candidate approved by him.
Fantasies that the army will turn remain just that. This isn’t Latin America. The army and security services remain firmly on the regime’s side as that regime pays them well and gives them impunity.Regime change opens up a whole unpleasant world of truth commissions, fines, jail, unemployment, disbanding of OMON / KGB.
So, y’know, if you’ve other browser tabs open that are more interesting....
not-bono-ever
meh
Lots of rivalry and loathing between interior forces and teh army proper. OMON are utter filth in comparison
ETA are the army even being paid these days ?
ETA are the army even being paid these days ?
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
It would be a very daft autocrat that didn't look after the army and other uniformed scumbags that kept him afloat. He spent much of his 'election' campaign posing with members of the armed forces. There's no information that they are not being paid (given a noisy minority who've taken to the internet to leave the services because they can't stomach the repression and believe their oath is to the people rather than the political authorities, if they were not being paid, we'd know by now).
I agree OMON are the absolute dregs, violent bullies, sadists and petty criminals.
There's a third pillar keeping Lukashenko afloat- the amoral civilian willing to prioritise their own career, material comfort and survival under any circumstances. When there were mass sackings after the state broadcaster went on strike, some Russian technical specialists- up to two dozen- were brought in to help, but all the other jobs were filled by local youngsters, willing to work under almost any circumstances. These people were described by the dismissed strikers as "spineless and amoral", quite a statement from those who spent years telling lies on Lukashenko's behalf. These kinds of people go all the way to the very top, to Lukashenko's press ecretary, Natalya "dictatorship is our brand" Eismont, married to the head of state broadcasting.
This chilling article gives a very good insight into the kind of soulless vaccuum we're dealing with here.
I agree OMON are the absolute dregs, violent bullies, sadists and petty criminals.
There's a third pillar keeping Lukashenko afloat- the amoral civilian willing to prioritise their own career, material comfort and survival under any circumstances. When there were mass sackings after the state broadcaster went on strike, some Russian technical specialists- up to two dozen- were brought in to help, but all the other jobs were filled by local youngsters, willing to work under almost any circumstances. These people were described by the dismissed strikers as "spineless and amoral", quite a statement from those who spent years telling lies on Lukashenko's behalf. These kinds of people go all the way to the very top, to Lukashenko's press ecretary, Natalya "dictatorship is our brand" Eismont, married to the head of state broadcasting.
This chilling article gives a very good insight into the kind of soulless vaccuum we're dealing with here.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Translated update from a local source on the bizarre events at the Ukraine-Belarus border this morning:
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
A charming photo of Lukashenko with RT’s loathsome head propagandist, Margarita Simonyan, and assorted other broadcast journalists. Simonyan described opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya as “having the intelligence of an orang-utang” on live TV a couple of weeks back.
Lukashenko admitted he’d “...maybe been president a little too long” and didn’t rule out early elections after constitutional reform.
He accused the opposition of being rootless petty bourgeois malcontents willing to roll back the frontiers of the state, destroy the welfare state, and turn their backs on Russia.
He won’t negotiate. A strange blend of some old cod-Soviet songs for the elderly, and very vague promises of some reform, maybe, sometime.
Not quite clear if this is just selling fog to try and calm things down- fat chance- or whether Russia has already mapped out his departure in the next year or two, having used this period to turn the Belarusian economy and polity firmly in their favour and piss on the fires of protest.
This view of the wider geopolitical tug of war involving Moscow, Minsk, Berlin, Luka and Navalny is worth reading.
teqniq
DisMembered
Please sign and share
Belarus: Free dozens of jailed union activists
Please support this LabourStart urgent action campaign and spread the word.
www.labourstartcampaigns.net
not-bono-ever
meh
Massed arrests again over the weekend
surely he cannot hold on much longer?
surely he cannot hold on much longer?
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
He can, and he has.
I meant to do a summary on this thread before Christmas but forgot.
Much of the world's media has moved on since the protests of the summer, but the Belarusian protests continue, with tactics evolving and changing in response to pretty heavy clamp downs by the state forces- police, OMON, GUBOpiK (anti-organised crime squad), KGB, etc.
The Russians don't see Lukashenko as anything other than a pain in the arse anymore, and have neither the patience nor the resources for writing a blank cheque to prop up a dying regime. There was a rather touchy audience between Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, and Lukashenko, just before Christmas, with Lavrov pretty much asking "when will you step down- as we agreed". The issue remains that the Russians have no controllable political vehicle within Belarus nor pliant alternative presidential candidate. Babariko would be the most obvious candidate but he's in jail.
Lukashenko reeled out the same old platitudes in his New Year's address. More Belarusians seemed to have paid heed to Tikhanovskaya, still in exile, and her New Year's speech.
For her part Tikhanovskaya has worked hard to help people in the country and kept the issue of Belarus bubbling in Brussels and in other surpanational organisations. She won a peace prize of some sort (can't remember the title). She has started some great citizen's initiatives. Biden seems to adopt a much more hardline approach to Lukashenko and his regime and further swingeing sanctions have been imposed on indivduals and one or two big exporting companies. This is a departure from the outgoing presidency and Mike Pompeo's happiness to sell Lukashenko oil. The EU has also agreed some sanctions but hardly painful ones, and even those came far too late.
The worry continues to be that Tikhanovskaya has no agency and is on the road to being yet another exiled former presidential candidate gradually withering on the outside. Warming words from EU capitals and photo ops with the Merkels and Macrons of this world won't bring her to power. Indeed such photo ops will increase Russian suspicion of her, and her agenda, despite no serious opposition figure expressing any negative sentiment about Russia or calling for closer ties to the EU. The Russians refuse to meet with her or engage with her seriously.
The resistance loyal to her continues to be exclusively peaceful. Lukashenko has invested massively in the apparatus of repression and it is that- and that alone- that is keeping him in power. Only a physical challenge will remove Lukashenko in short order and it's the one thing the opposition refuse to contemplate. Stalemate.
Challenges ahead for both sides in 2021. Lukashenko as already stated is under pressure to step down from the Russians. Likely to pressure him even more is an economy devastated by bungled handling of COVID-19, stagnation caused by the global downturn caused by the pandemic, sanctions, and an over-investment in security and repression at the expense of all other sectors of the economy. Sectors that had been growing fast, providing much needed revenue- IT, and tourism, will collapse. Lukashenko warned today of a very hard year ahead for the country.
The Chinese are also becoming leerier of investing whilst the present political climate seems in such poor health. As for the opposition, their strength and courage is astonishing- 30000 arrested so far, many maimed or badly injured as a result of beatings and maltreatment. Still, on day 141, they are out this evening, marching, calling others to join them, being roughed up and locked up. Lukashenko has a trump card in that Tikhanovskaya's husband has been in jail since May. The only member of the opposition female triumvirate, Maria Kolesnikova, that remained in Belarus, has also been in jail for months now, facing serious, trumped up charges and many years of incarceration without a regime change.
What has changed fundamentally, according to all observers across the political spectrum, is the emergence of a Belarusian civil society and national consciousness, in an electorate many have long despaired of as being apathetic and resigned to the fate of dictatorship of one form or another. These processes take a long time to mature and have consequences. Those expecting a swift turnover in power are likely in for another year of disappointment. Lukashenko's grip is loosening- and he does appear widely despised now even by those who half heartedly supported him, or tolerated him in return for a job and a quiet life, in the past. However, his grip is loosening slowly, and the manner of his departure is still in his hands- albeit nudged heavily by the Russians, when the time is right for them.
I meant to do a summary on this thread before Christmas but forgot.
Much of the world's media has moved on since the protests of the summer, but the Belarusian protests continue, with tactics evolving and changing in response to pretty heavy clamp downs by the state forces- police, OMON, GUBOpiK (anti-organised crime squad), KGB, etc.
The Russians don't see Lukashenko as anything other than a pain in the arse anymore, and have neither the patience nor the resources for writing a blank cheque to prop up a dying regime. There was a rather touchy audience between Sergei Lavrov, Russian foreign minister, and Lukashenko, just before Christmas, with Lavrov pretty much asking "when will you step down- as we agreed". The issue remains that the Russians have no controllable political vehicle within Belarus nor pliant alternative presidential candidate. Babariko would be the most obvious candidate but he's in jail.
Lukashenko reeled out the same old platitudes in his New Year's address. More Belarusians seemed to have paid heed to Tikhanovskaya, still in exile, and her New Year's speech.
For her part Tikhanovskaya has worked hard to help people in the country and kept the issue of Belarus bubbling in Brussels and in other surpanational organisations. She won a peace prize of some sort (can't remember the title). She has started some great citizen's initiatives. Biden seems to adopt a much more hardline approach to Lukashenko and his regime and further swingeing sanctions have been imposed on indivduals and one or two big exporting companies. This is a departure from the outgoing presidency and Mike Pompeo's happiness to sell Lukashenko oil. The EU has also agreed some sanctions but hardly painful ones, and even those came far too late.
The worry continues to be that Tikhanovskaya has no agency and is on the road to being yet another exiled former presidential candidate gradually withering on the outside. Warming words from EU capitals and photo ops with the Merkels and Macrons of this world won't bring her to power. Indeed such photo ops will increase Russian suspicion of her, and her agenda, despite no serious opposition figure expressing any negative sentiment about Russia or calling for closer ties to the EU. The Russians refuse to meet with her or engage with her seriously.
The resistance loyal to her continues to be exclusively peaceful. Lukashenko has invested massively in the apparatus of repression and it is that- and that alone- that is keeping him in power. Only a physical challenge will remove Lukashenko in short order and it's the one thing the opposition refuse to contemplate. Stalemate.
Challenges ahead for both sides in 2021. Lukashenko as already stated is under pressure to step down from the Russians. Likely to pressure him even more is an economy devastated by bungled handling of COVID-19, stagnation caused by the global downturn caused by the pandemic, sanctions, and an over-investment in security and repression at the expense of all other sectors of the economy. Sectors that had been growing fast, providing much needed revenue- IT, and tourism, will collapse. Lukashenko warned today of a very hard year ahead for the country.
The Chinese are also becoming leerier of investing whilst the present political climate seems in such poor health. As for the opposition, their strength and courage is astonishing- 30000 arrested so far, many maimed or badly injured as a result of beatings and maltreatment. Still, on day 141, they are out this evening, marching, calling others to join them, being roughed up and locked up. Lukashenko has a trump card in that Tikhanovskaya's husband has been in jail since May. The only member of the opposition female triumvirate, Maria Kolesnikova, that remained in Belarus, has also been in jail for months now, facing serious, trumped up charges and many years of incarceration without a regime change.
What has changed fundamentally, according to all observers across the political spectrum, is the emergence of a Belarusian civil society and national consciousness, in an electorate many have long despaired of as being apathetic and resigned to the fate of dictatorship of one form or another. These processes take a long time to mature and have consequences. Those expecting a swift turnover in power are likely in for another year of disappointment. Lukashenko's grip is loosening- and he does appear widely despised now even by those who half heartedly supported him, or tolerated him in return for a job and a quiet life, in the past. However, his grip is loosening slowly, and the manner of his departure is still in his hands- albeit nudged heavily by the Russians, when the time is right for them.
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Vladislav Davidzon writes an interesting article on the behind-the-curtain maneovering of the Russians to try and engineer a Kremlin-friendly post-Lukashenko set of parties and control the political landscape, after the dictatorship- but are also being hamstrung / stymied by Belarus' internal stalemate, and the lack of purchase that a pro-Russian, pro-church, Soviet nostalgiac partry would have with the opposition movement, focused on building a parliamentary democracy and invdividual freedoms.
teqniq
DisMembered
Making death threats to people abroad now.
euobserver.com
[Interview] Belarus threatens to kill two UK dissidents
British citizenship and international awards are not enough to make Belarusian dissident Natalia Kaliada feel safe after a high-profile death threat.
euobserver.com
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
Thought readers here would appreciate the perspective of two Belarusian anarchists who fled the country last August after five years of run-ins with the security services there. They are (like many exiles) holed up in Warsaw, for now. You'll need to feed it through google translate but a good long read.
This week has been all about the scandal generated by Rene Fazel, president of the International Ice Hockey Federation, to Belarus. Fazel embraced Lukashenko and the two chatted away like old friends in scenes that caused revulsion in the sport and in diplomatic circles. Fazel since has been in deserpate damage-limitation mode. The world championship tournament itself is scheduled to be held between Latvia and Belarus in May, but the smart money says Belarus will lose out. If Fazel presses ahead with the Belarusian leg of the tournament many international teams and individuals have vowed to boycott the competition.
The threats to the directors of the Belarus Free Theatre are very sobering but a sign that their persistent activism and awareness-raising is having an effect. This in the wider context of Lukashenko having political assassination squads active beyind the borders of the country, a story revealed in the German media at the back end of last year.
This week has been all about the scandal generated by Rene Fazel, president of the International Ice Hockey Federation, to Belarus. Fazel embraced Lukashenko and the two chatted away like old friends in scenes that caused revulsion in the sport and in diplomatic circles. Fazel since has been in deserpate damage-limitation mode. The world championship tournament itself is scheduled to be held between Latvia and Belarus in May, but the smart money says Belarus will lose out. If Fazel presses ahead with the Belarusian leg of the tournament many international teams and individuals have vowed to boycott the competition.
The threats to the directors of the Belarus Free Theatre are very sobering but a sign that their persistent activism and awareness-raising is having an effect. This in the wider context of Lukashenko having political assassination squads active beyind the borders of the country, a story revealed in the German media at the back end of last year.
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steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
A recording has been leaked this morning which reveals the voice of the Deputy Minister of the Interior specualting on the establoishment of concentration camps for protestors, and confirming blanket immunity for security forces if protestors are killed, signed off by Lukashenko.
wemakeyousoundb
hopefully not gimboid
I suppose at least they are outspoken about it
bleak :/
bleak :/
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