Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

And next, Syria?

laptop said:
And is also willing to be used as a conduit for the military's lobbying of government.

In this case, I get the feeling the Joint Chiefs are saying "Fuck no, you stupid bastard, don't drop us in this shit".
Click to expand...

Yup agree and agree there's no appetite for this in the military.
 
The hawk in this debacle will be William Hague, a Cold War Atlanticist and Thathcherite nationalist who still believes in guff about special relationships with the US despite its own pronouncements about downgrading its European interests and focusing on Pacific power.
Menwhile the only significant economic power in Europe, Germany will keep its nose out. Not because of its traditional post war reluctance to involve itself in militarism but because of its new Ostpolitik and the desire to strengthen its relationships with China, Russia and its near abroad.
 
Could Washington be heading for its own Suez moment here - I mean, might they find that when they try to use force in this case that their creditors and clients in Beijing threaten to pull the plug on them?
 
Idris2002 said:
Could Washington be heading for its own Suez moment here - I mean, might they find that when they try to use force in this case that their creditors and clients in Beijing threaten to pull the plug on them?
Click to expand...

I was wondering about this too...US power isn't quite what it was despite its military still being huge.
 
Briefing which looks like a downplay of strikes, some suggesting later this week. Which means either it's a bluff to get negotiations started on their terms or missiles flying in the next 36 hours..?
 
Kid_Eternity said:
Briefing which looks like a downplay of strikes, some suggesting later this week. Which means either it's a bluff to get negotiations started on their terms or missiles flying in the next 36 hours..?
Click to expand...
It was just more talk. 'Obama will consult allies & congress & decide soon.' Almost 2.5 years into it & the decision is coming soon. :rolleyes:
 
Kid_Eternity said:
Looks like the propaganda offensive is in full swing, now the line is shifting from UN authority for military operations to NATO attacks in the mold of Kosovo (Tony Blair will be in the news any day now) run out of Turkey.
Click to expand...


The Times just published a piece by Blair. I can't see behind their paywall but the headline is 'The hand-wringing has to stop. We must act' and the next bit is 'If we do not intervene to support freedom and democracy in Egypt and Syria, the Middle East faces catastrophe'.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article3852924.ece

I would like to read the whole thing since his stance on Syria is no surprise but the Egypt stuff may be more interesting.
 
Ah yes Bandar, so hated by Syria & pals (e.g. Iran) that they started a rumour that he had been killed the other year. The brief mention in the WSJ piece of his role helping to train 'Afghan rebels' to fight the Soviets makes for especially eyebrow wiggling reading if you read that Assad interview mentioned a few posts ago at the same time.
 
"Anyone who could claim that an attack of this staggering scale could be contrived or fabricated needs to check their conscience and their own moral compass," - Kerry today.

Wow, as opposed to being responsible for drone attacks that deliberately target first responders. Fuck you cunt.
 
Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria
Telegraph. 26 Aug 2013
The revelations come amid high tension in the Middle East, with US, British, and French warship poised for missile strikes in Syria. Iran has threatened to retaliate.

The strategic jitters pushed Brent crude prices to a five-month high of $112 a barrel. “We are only one incident away from a serious oil spike. The market is a lot tighter than people think,” said Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review.

Leaked transcripts of a closed-door meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan shed an extraordinary light on the hard-nosed Realpolitik of the two sides.

Prince Bandar, head of Saudi intelligence, allegedly confronted the Kremlin with a mix of inducements and threats in a bid to break the deadlock over Syria. “Let us examine how to put together a unified Russian-Saudi strategy on the subject of oil. The aim is to agree on the price of oil and production quantities that keep the price stable in global oil markets,” he said at the four-hour meeting with Mr Putin. They met at Mr Putin’s dacha outside Moscow three weeks ago.
Click to expand...
Leaked by Putin? Pretty blatant if true.
As-Safir said Prince Bandar pledged to safeguard Russia’s naval base in Syria if the Assad regime is toppled, but he also hinted at Chechen terrorist attacks on Russia’s Winter Olympics in Sochi if there is no accord. “I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games are controlled by us,” he allegedly said.
Click to expand...
Nice to see it out in the open.

Idris2002 said:
Could Washington be heading for its own Suez moment here - I mean, might they find that when they try to use force in this case that their creditors and clients in Beijing threaten to pull the plug on them?
Click to expand...

China and Japan were selling US treasuries/debt months ago. When the Federal Reserve announced they are ending QE infinity.

China, Japan lead record outflow from Treasuries in June
Reuters Aug 16, 2013
China and Japan led an exodus from U.S. Treasuries in June after the first signals the U.S. central bank was preparing to wind back its stimulus, with data showing they accounted for almost all of a record $40.8 billion of net foreign selling of Treasuries.
Click to expand...
They'd shoot themselves in the foot if they triggered the USA's collapse. Both countries are dependent on exports.
 
I recall talk of Russia going nuts about the invasion of Iraq, but in the end one of the only visible signs of Russian upset was a load of internet propaganda on a couple of websites during the invasion about how bogged down the US troops were. There were a few days where such propaganda gained some credibility when the US failed to take Baghdad on schedule, but it was obviously rather short-lived. Whether there were other consequences which did not get a lot of public attention remains unknown to me.
 
its always worth remembering whenever anyone talks about Russia flexing its military power and standing up to the US etc.. that Russia spends 1/7th of what the US spends, and that only a tiny part of that spending goes on expeditionary capability - the rest goes on its nuclear arsenal (and Russia is not going to go to nuclear war with the US over a hot turd like Syria..) and feeding its vast but immobile Army.

its naval capability is less that the UK's or France - nobody talks about the UK or France being able to fight the US Navy, and for a very good reason.
 
elbows said:
I recall talk of Russia going nuts about the invasion of Iraq, but in the end one of the only visible signs of Russian upset was a load of internet propaganda on a couple of websites during the invasion about how bogged down the US troops were. There were a few days where such propaganda gained some credibility when the US failed to take Baghdad on schedule, but it was obviously rather short-lived. Whether there were other consequences which did not get a lot of public attention remains unknown to me.
Click to expand...

Was thinking the same about Kosovo, remember all the panic about Russia taking an airport? The big one would be if China basically said they'd oppose it. That'd make everyone stop and consider.
 
yield said:
They'd shoot themselves in the foot if they triggered the USA's collapse. Both countries are dependent on exports.
Click to expand...

Hang on a mo. I didn't mean that China would trigger the USA's collapse - Eisenhower didn't trigger the UK's collapse when he rapped Eden's knuckles over Suez after all. China might still want to rap the USA's knuckles over Syria, though. And the latest voices coming out of the Xinhua news agency are firmly against an attack on Syria:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-would-be-irresponsible-warns-china-1.1507069

An attack on Syria would be dangerous and irresponsible, and the world should remember the Iraq war was started by US allegations of weapons of mass destruction which turned out to be false, China’s official Xinhua news agency said today. . . Xinhua commentaries do not carry the same weight as government statements, but they can be read as a reflection of official Chinese thinking.
Click to expand...
 
Idris2002 said:
Hang on a mo. I didn't mean that China would trigger the USA's collapse - Eisenhower didn't trigger the UK's collapse when he rapped Eden's knuckles over Suez after all. China might still want to rap the USA's knuckles over Syria, though. And the latest voices coming out of the Xinhua news agency are firmly against an attack on Syria:

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...-would-be-irresponsible-warns-china-1.1507069
Click to expand...

i'm not sure it says that - it says that, like Iraq, China thinks an attack would be foolish and irresponsible because it would lead to something worse in Syria/the wider ME than is currently the case, not that an attack would be foolish and irresponsible because China would retaliate.

France and Germany said Iraq was a bad idea - and they were right - but not one of the repercussions the US/UK suffered as a result of what passed for the thought process over Iraq were imposed by France or Germany.
 
kebabking said:
i'm not sure it says that - it says that, like Iraq, China thinks an attack would be foolish and irresponsible because it would lead to something worse in Syria/the wider ME than is currently the case, not that an attack would be foolish and irresponsible because China would retaliate.

France and Germany said Iraq was a bad idea - and they were right - but not one of the repercussions the US/UK suffered as a result of what passed for the thought process over Iraq were imposed by France or Germany.
Click to expand...

You're right, I may have exagerrated the extent of China's opposition - but the mood music seems to be edging in that direction. And China can't be written off as "Old Asia" the way Rumsfeld wrote off France and Germany as "old Europe".
 
Any limited response by Russia and China will be weighed against the loss of face if the USA backs down and does nothing at this stage. And since maintaining the credibility of their bloody threats is rather important to the US way of doing things, it would take the threat of rather dramatic consequences to stop them. And even then that may make them even keener to project their power and deny others attempts to restrain them.
 
And Russia these days mostly demonstrates a really serious attempt to fight hard for its own interests when it involves countries right on its doorstep. e.g. Ukraine, Georgia. China seems mostly content to do the same, and to pursue its longer-term interests via things like investment in developing countries.
 
I don't expect there to be any riposte, other than verbally, from either China or Russia to a symbolic cruise missile strike by the US and UK. Like the rest of us armchair strategists looking on, the real military analysts in China and Russia will be telling their political masters that a limited airstrike will do no more than add a bit more rubble to another area of Damascus, in a city already looking like central Coventry after the blitz. One thing's clear whatever state institution they eventually bomb, there won't be anyone at home (unless the regime forces a few unfortunate citizens to camp there to offer up "collateral damage " casualties for the world media).

So what is the US (and satrap states, the UK, and the ex colonial power responsible for the entire divisive colonial boundary carve up in the region in the first place , France) hoping to achieve ? They can't think a cruise missile or twenty on Damascus is going to be a battlefield "game changer". I can only conclude that the strike, when it happens, is more about crude "imperialist PR" - achieving no more than symbolically restating the unchallenged ability of US imperialism to knock over any country's state infrastructures anytime it chooses - and soft soap the gullible Western public that the "civilised West" is really trying so hard to "save" ordinary civilians in Syria from the homicidal attentions of its kleptrocratic Baathist ruling class. The truth of course is that the US would rather Assad WON, than the jihadists did - so no one is really particularly happy with the way things are going ....... except the Israelis of course (every country anywhere near their borders is now totally fucked - talk about Martin Luther King's , "I have a dream" , - this situation must have been the wet dream of every Zionist Israeli politician since 1949 !) .
 
@Dima_Khatib: Not sure how true but do read it ! “@AnMustafa: @Dima_Khatib this sounds more like it - http://t.co/IpUECtLRB5”
Click to expand...

A MUST READ, URGENT AND IMPORTANT SHARE WIDELY AND IN MAXIMUM SPEED! TRANSLATED FROM ARABIC INTO ENGLISH BY BILAD AL SHAAM

26-08-2013: Reports states: that the United Nations chemical weapons inspection team has been ordered to leave Syria immediately, with the latest reports suggesting that the upcoming US attacks, reportedly set to be launched imminently by the US military, will be targeted at the Jabhat Al Nusrah and other independent Islamic battalions fighting against the regime, as well as at regime chemical weapons sites.

According to the latest reports, US warships will initially launch a series of attacks with Tomahawk missiles, targeting strategic chemical weapons sites and:

1. the regime's radar network
2. the regime's air defence system
3. the regime's chemical weapons production facilities
4. the regime's stores of Scud ballistic missiles

The second wave of the US attack will see the US deploying Cruise missiles, with the main targets being
1. training centres for Jabhat Al Nusrah (JAN) and Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) battalions
2. Senior regime officials and leaders of prominent Islamist battalions
3. Shariah courts

The operation will reportedly be carried out under a complete media blackout.

US forces are reportedly reportedly attacking sites in relatively untroubled areas so as not to contribute to resolving the conflict in favour of the opposition (recently described by the head of the US Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, as not supporting "American interests").

A number of analysts have already suggested that this suggests the US will target the senior regime officials as a smokescreen for its real objective, of targeting Mujahideen groups such as JAN and ISIS, with a predicted attack on the Presidential Palace seen as a decoy operation (in the knowledge that Bashar Assad is no longer there).

The strongest attacks are expected to take place in rural Aleppo, rural Deir el Zour, Daraa province and around the coastal area.

Independent Islamist groups have been urged to change their locations and to remain extremely alert for signs of forthcoming US attacks that has been given green light by russia.

http://tl.gd/n_1rm3ss8
Click to expand...
 
Well the 'complete media blackout' thing is somewhat meaningless and the article is already wrong about the UN inspectors given that it is dated yesterday.

I do not 100% rule out the main premise of the article regarding attacking sections of the opposition. But it also sounds like the kind of rumour that would be started for a number of reasons quite separate from the reality of what the US plan, i.e. propaganda, and the idea that news of it happening not coming out seems unlikely to me. I also have no idea if there are many islamist targets of the nature they suggest that are actually available to be taken out by the sort of missile strikes that are anticipated.
 
elbows said:
...But it also sounds like the kind of rumour that would be started for a number of reasons quite separate from the reality of what the US plan, i.e. propaganda, and the idea that news of it happening not coming out seems unlikely to me.
Click to expand...
..True enough... Stage some footage of US led cruise attacks on islamist targets showing mass carnage and then when the US responds with a 'that never happened' and even the Syrian government gives a big 'WTF?' to the 'news', the propagandists can then shout "See, we told you so!" and yet another veneer of misdirection and bullshit is applied to the already considerably vast accretion layer of half-truths and outright lies* concerning what is actually happening in Syria.

Its astonishing that in this time of unprecedented communication, we are really no better off with regards to the whole truth of the situation than in the days of 'our man in Damascus' down the other end of a crackly phone line. =/

*usual health warnings apply: not everything coming out of Syria is a crock of shit, obviously, but there is a very dirty propaganda war being fought from both sides etc.
 
I'd love to know what the US are really thinking. They were OK with Assad's rule because he didn't upset the status quo or threaten Israel and he didn't tolerate extremism. Now they're thinking he'll probably lose and they're trying to protect their own interests and Israel's. Lots of their allies in the Gulf states are Sunnis who are supplying weapons to the rebels. And Russia and Iran are supplying arms to Assad. So the old game of arming both sides and letting them battle to a standstill is being played without the US having to arrange it. But it's a bit obvious that they're not stopping it either. It would be good for the US if moderate Sunnis win because that would weaken Iran and Hezbollah. But if the more extreme Sunnis come out on top and Hezbollah fades away you could get Sunni extremists attacking Israel from two directions, maybe with Scuds with chemical warheads. And if the Al-Qaeda franchises get hold of some Scuds...the newer models are said to have a 700km range. So I suppose what Obama really wants is for the fighting to be contained within Syria but to be as destructive and drawn out as possible, so that nobody really wins. And if it looks like the rebels are close to capturing some serious weapons it will be time to encourage Israel to bomb them. Nobody will really care about that, everyone expects Israel to keep doing it without asking for permission. http://bit.ly/1cRq2yf The US will help them do a really thorough job with satellite photos and Awacs and the latest bombs and missiles. In the end the US and Israel will work together to make sure they both do pretty well out of Syria's complete destruction. They don't want a negotiated settlement until the weapons and men are all used up.
 
Idris2002 said:
Hang on a mo. I didn't mean that China would trigger the USA's collapse - Eisenhower didn't trigger the UK's collapse when he rapped Eden's knuckles over Suez after all. China might still want to rap the USA's knuckles over Syria, though.
Click to expand...
Maybe. I'm not sure how China would do that though?

The USA had more power over France and UK during the Suez crisis than China has over the USA now.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

teqniq
Huge earthquake in Turkey and Northern Syria 05-06/02/23
2 3
Replies
83
Views
3K
JimW
JimW
P
The next American Civil War
7 8 9 10 11
Replies
321
Views
15K
pbsmooth
P
MrCurry
After Ukraine, what’s next?
2 3
Replies
76
Views
5K
Dogsauce
Dogsauce
T
Hong Kong: what next?
65 66 67 68 69
Replies
2K
Views
83K
Yossarian
Yossarian
H
Syria, attack on Conoco gas plant in Feburary 2018
Replies
1
Views
349
yield
Y
Back
Top Bottom